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Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin

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Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development Public Disclosure Authorized Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized FINAL REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized August 2015 © 2015 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin FINAL REPORT August 2015 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was made possible by the financial contribution of the World Bank’s Water Partnership Program (WPP), a multi-donor trust fund that promotes water security for inclusive green growth (water.worldbank.org/water/wpp), and the Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD). DISCLAIMER This work is a product of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Project No. A040710 Document no. 4 Version L Date of issue August 2015 Prepared DAH/JAP/ZAT/DAM/SES/MIB Checked DAH/JAP/RSS/DAM Approved DAM Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin i Final Report – August2015 Table of Contents Page No 1 Introduction 1-1 2 Water Resources Overview for the Sava River Basin 2-1 2.1 Brief Social and Economic Characteristics of the Basin 2-1 2.2 Current Status of Water Resources 2-5 2.3 Institutional Arrangements for Water Resource Management – Sava River Basin States 2-19 2.4 Core Water Management Issues 2-21 2.5 Future Projects Assuming No Climate Change 2-28 3 Trends Analysis for the Basin and per Country 3-1 3.1 Data Available for Trend Analysis 3-1 3.2 Sava River Basin Operational Definitions of Climate Variables 3-1 3.3 Climate Analysis 3-2 4 Future Climate Analysis for the Basin 4-1 4.1 Probability Density Functions 4-1 4.2 Evaluation of PDF methodology 4-2 4.3 Regional Climate Model Analysis 4-3 4.4 Conclusions on Future Climate Tendencies 4-6 5 Hydrologic Modeling of the Sava River Basin 5-1 5.1 Model Used 5-1 5.2 Data Collection 5-1 5.3 Selection of the Calibration and Verification Periods 5-2 5.4 Record Extension 5-2 5.5 Model Structure 5-2 5.6 Model Performance 5-4 6 Implications of Modeling Results 6-1 6.1 Characterization of Future Hydrologic Regime on the Basin 6-1 6.2 Impact of Climate Change on Selected Sectors within the Basin 6-12 7 Partial and Preliminary Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the SRB 7-1 7.1 Objectives of the Economic Evaluation 7-1 7.2 Scope and Approach to the Economic Evaluation 7-1 7.3 Sources of Data 7-1 7.4 Models Used 7-1 7.5 Results of Simulations on Climate Change Impact 7-3 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin ii Final Report – August2015 8 Adaptation strategies for the Sava River Basin 8-5 8.1 Main Framework Policies 8-5 8.2 Dealing with Uncertainty 8-6 8.3 Preparatory Steps for Adaptation Measures 8-8 8.4 Sector Specific Adaptation Measures 8-8 9 Conclusions and Recommendation 9-1 9.1 Summary of the results 9-1 9.2 Recommendations for Adaptation 9-6 9.3 Conclusions 9-8 10 References 10-1 11 Appendix A – Ranking of Adaptation Measures 0 SEPARATE REPORTS IN ANNEXES: ANNEX 1 ‐ Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin ANNEX 1A ‐ Training on the Use of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin ANNEX 2 – Guidance Note on Floods ANNEX 3 ‐ Guidance Note on Hydropower ANNEX 4 – Guidance Note on Navigation ANNEX 5 – Guidance Note on Agriculture ANNEX 6 – Guidance Note on Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the Sava River Basin Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin iii Final Report – August2015 List of Figures Page No Figure 1-1: Flowchart depicting logic of WATCAP preparation ................................................... 1-3 Figure 2-1: Country Overview of the Sava River Basin ............................................................... 2-1 Figure 2-2: Geographic Share of Countries in the Sava River Basin .......................................... 2-2 Figure 2-3: GDP per capita in the countries of the Sava River Basin in 2012 ............................. 2-4 Figure 2-4: Sava River Basin and relief characteristics ............................................................... 2-6 Figure 2-5: Sava River network and main tributaries ................................................................... 2-6 Figure 2-6: Distribution of main land cover/land use classes in the Sava River Basin ................ 2-7 Figure 2-7: Mean annual precipitation in the Sava River Basin ................................................... 2-8 Figure 2-8: Seasonal precipitation patterns at selected locations in the Sava River Basin for 1969- 2009. .................................................................................................................................... 2-9 Figure 2-9: Mean annual evaporation in the Sava River Basin ................................................... 2-9 Figure 2-10: Mean annual runoff in the Sava River Basin ......................................................... 2-10 Figure 2-11: Indicative map of important flood-prone areas in the Sava River Basin ................ 2-11 Figure 2-12: Reported main groundwater bodies in the Sava River Basin ................................ 2-16 Figure 2-13: Designated Ramsar Sites within the Sava River Basin ......................................... 2-19 Figure 2-14: Estimation of current water use in the SRB ........................................................... 2-25 Figure 2-15: Water demand by economic sector 2005-2015 (excluding hydropower) .............. 2-29 Figure 2-16: Water demand by country 2005-2015 (excluding hydropower) ............................. 2-29 Figure 3-1: 128-month running average of monthly precipitation: Belgrade, Sarajevo and Zagreb ............................................................................................................................................. 3-3 Figure 3-2: 128-month running average of Mean Temperature at Zagreb-Grič and Sarajevo .... 3-4 Figure 3-3: The 10-year moving average of evaporation at selected stations ............................. 3-5 Figure 3-4: JJA potential evaporation at Zagreb-Grič, 1862-2008 ............................................... 3-6 Figure 3-5: Running 128-month average discharge measured at Zagreb and Sremska Mitrovica ............................................................................................................................................. 3-6 Figure 4-1: Verification of climate scenarios ................................................................................ 4-3 Figure 4-2: Temperature stations (left) and precipitation stations (right) in the Sava River Basin used for development of future climate scenarios as an input to the hydrologic model ....... 4-4 Figure 4-3: Explanation of the bias correction procedure ............................................................ 4-6 Figure 4-4: Median annual temperature change (in º C) for 2011-2040 (left) and for 2041-2070 (right) relative to the reference period 1961-1990 ................................................................ 4-7 Figure 4-5: Median annual precipitation change (in %) for 2011-2040 (left) and for 2041-2070 (right) relative to the reference period 1961-1990 ................................................................ 4-7 Figure 4-6: Mean annual temperature as predicted by the ensemble of five climate models for selected locations in the Sava River basin. .......................................................................... 4-8 Figure 4-7: Annual precipitation as predicted by the ensemble of five climate models for selected locations in the Sava River basin. ........................................................................................ 4-8 Figure 5-1: Major sub-basins for the Sava hydrologic model; the second-level division is shown with grey lines) ..................................................................................................................... 5-3 Figure 5-2: Results for the Sava hydrologic model at selected stations: calibration (left) and verification (right) periods. .................................................................................................... 5-4 Figure 5-3: Simulated vs. observed seasonal runoff distribution at selected hydrologic stations for calibration (left) and verification (right) periods .................................................................... 5-5 Figure 5-4: Percentage error in mean flows (PBIAS) for calibration, verification and simulation with the extended record 1961-1990 (*
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