Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development Public Disclosure Authorized Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized FINAL REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized August 2015 © 2015 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin FINAL REPORT August 2015 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was made possible by the financial contribution of the World Bank’s Water Partnership Program (WPP), a multi-donor trust fund that promotes water security for inclusive green growth (water.worldbank.org/water/wpp), and the Trust Fund for Environmentally & Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD). DISCLAIMER This work is a product of the World Bank with external contributions. 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Project No. A040710 Document no. 4 Version L Date of issue August 2015 Prepared DAH/JAP/ZAT/DAM/SES/MIB Checked DAH/JAP/RSS/DAM Approved DAM Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin i Final Report – August2015 Table of Contents Page No 1 Introduction 1-1 2 Water Resources Overview for the Sava River Basin 2-1 2.1 Brief Social and Economic Characteristics of the Basin 2-1 2.2 Current Status of Water Resources 2-5 2.3 Institutional Arrangements for Water Resource Management – Sava River Basin States 2-19 2.4 Core Water Management Issues 2-21 2.5 Future Projects Assuming No Climate Change 2-28 3 Trends Analysis for the Basin and per Country 3-1 3.1 Data Available for Trend Analysis 3-1 3.2 Sava River Basin Operational Definitions of Climate Variables 3-1 3.3 Climate Analysis 3-2 4 Future Climate Analysis for the Basin 4-1 4.1 Probability Density Functions 4-1 4.2 Evaluation of PDF methodology 4-2 4.3 Regional Climate Model Analysis 4-3 4.4 Conclusions on Future Climate Tendencies 4-6 5 Hydrologic Modeling of the Sava River Basin 5-1 5.1 Model Used 5-1 5.2 Data Collection 5-1 5.3 Selection of the Calibration and Verification Periods 5-2 5.4 Record Extension 5-2 5.5 Model Structure 5-2 5.6 Model Performance 5-4 6 Implications of Modeling Results 6-1 6.1 Characterization of Future Hydrologic Regime on the Basin 6-1 6.2 Impact of Climate Change on Selected Sectors within the Basin 6-12 7 Partial and Preliminary Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the SRB 7-1 7.1 Objectives of the Economic Evaluation 7-1 7.2 Scope and Approach to the Economic Evaluation 7-1 7.3 Sources of Data 7-1 7.4 Models Used 7-1 7.5 Results of Simulations on Climate Change Impact 7-3 Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin ii Final Report – August2015 8 Adaptation strategies for the Sava River Basin 8-5 8.1 Main Framework Policies 8-5 8.2 Dealing with Uncertainty 8-6 8.3 Preparatory Steps for Adaptation Measures 8-8 8.4 Sector Specific Adaptation Measures 8-8 9 Conclusions and Recommendation 9-1 9.1 Summary of the results 9-1 9.2 Recommendations for Adaptation 9-6 9.3 Conclusions 9-8 10 References 10-1 11 Appendix A – Ranking of Adaptation Measures 0 SEPARATE REPORTS IN ANNEXES: ANNEX 1 ‐ Development of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin ANNEX 1A ‐ Training on the Use of the Hydrologic Model for the Sava River Basin ANNEX 2 – Guidance Note on Floods ANNEX 3 ‐ Guidance Note on Hydropower ANNEX 4 – Guidance Note on Navigation ANNEX 5 – Guidance Note on Agriculture ANNEX 6 – Guidance Note on Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the Sava River Basin Water & Climate Adaptation Plan for the Sava River Basin iii Final Report – August2015 List of Figures Page No Figure 1-1: Flowchart depicting logic of WATCAP preparation ................................................... 1-3 Figure 2-1: Country Overview of the Sava River Basin ............................................................... 2-1 Figure 2-2: Geographic Share of Countries in the Sava River Basin .......................................... 2-2 Figure 2-3: GDP per capita in the countries of the Sava River Basin in 2012 ............................. 2-4 Figure 2-4: Sava River Basin and relief characteristics ............................................................... 2-6 Figure 2-5: Sava River network and main tributaries ................................................................... 2-6 Figure 2-6: Distribution of main land cover/land use classes in the Sava River Basin ................ 2-7 Figure 2-7: Mean annual precipitation in the Sava River Basin ................................................... 2-8 Figure 2-8: Seasonal precipitation patterns at selected locations in the Sava River Basin for 1969- 2009. .................................................................................................................................... 2-9 Figure 2-9: Mean annual evaporation in the Sava River Basin ................................................... 2-9 Figure 2-10: Mean annual runoff in the Sava River Basin ......................................................... 2-10 Figure 2-11: Indicative map of important flood-prone areas in the Sava River Basin ................ 2-11 Figure 2-12: Reported main groundwater bodies in the Sava River Basin ................................ 2-16 Figure 2-13: Designated Ramsar Sites within the Sava River Basin ......................................... 2-19 Figure 2-14: Estimation of current water use in the SRB ........................................................... 2-25 Figure 2-15: Water demand by economic sector 2005-2015 (excluding hydropower) .............. 2-29 Figure 2-16: Water demand by country 2005-2015 (excluding hydropower) ............................. 2-29 Figure 3-1: 128-month running average of monthly precipitation: Belgrade, Sarajevo and Zagreb ............................................................................................................................................. 3-3 Figure 3-2: 128-month running average of Mean Temperature at Zagreb-Grič and Sarajevo .... 3-4 Figure 3-3: The 10-year moving average of evaporation at selected stations ............................. 3-5 Figure 3-4: JJA potential evaporation at Zagreb-Grič, 1862-2008 ............................................... 3-6 Figure 3-5: Running 128-month average discharge measured at Zagreb and Sremska Mitrovica ............................................................................................................................................. 3-6 Figure 4-1: Verification of climate scenarios ................................................................................ 4-3 Figure 4-2: Temperature stations (left) and precipitation stations (right) in the Sava River Basin used for development of future climate scenarios as an input to the hydrologic model ....... 4-4 Figure 4-3: Explanation of the bias correction procedure ............................................................ 4-6 Figure 4-4: Median annual temperature change (in º C) for 2011-2040 (left) and for 2041-2070 (right) relative to the reference period 1961-1990 ................................................................ 4-7 Figure 4-5: Median annual precipitation change (in %) for 2011-2040 (left) and for 2041-2070 (right) relative to the reference period 1961-1990 ................................................................ 4-7 Figure 4-6: Mean annual temperature as predicted by the ensemble of five climate models for selected locations in the Sava River basin. .......................................................................... 4-8 Figure 4-7: Annual precipitation as predicted by the ensemble of five climate models for selected locations in the Sava River basin. ........................................................................................ 4-8 Figure 5-1: Major sub-basins for the Sava hydrologic model; the second-level division is shown with grey lines) ..................................................................................................................... 5-3 Figure 5-2: Results for the Sava hydrologic model at selected stations: calibration (left) and verification (right) periods. .................................................................................................... 5-4 Figure 5-3: Simulated vs. observed seasonal runoff distribution at selected hydrologic stations for calibration (left) and verification (right) periods .................................................................... 5-5 Figure 5-4: Percentage error in mean flows (PBIAS) for calibration, verification and simulation with the extended record 1961-1990 (*