Black Market Peso Exchange As a Mechanism to Place Substantial Amounts of Currency from U.S
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Colombian Peso Forecast Special Edition Nov
Friday Nov. 4, 2016 Nov. 4, 2016 Mexican Peso Outlook Is Bleak With or Without Trump Buyside View By George Lei, Bloomberg First Word The peso may look historically very cheap, but weak fundamentals will probably prevent "We're increasingly much appreciation, regardless of who wins the U.S. election. concerned about the The embattled currency hit a three-week low Nov. 1 after a poll showed Republican difference between PDVSA candidate Donald Trump narrowly ahead a week before the vote. A Trump victory and Venezuela. There's a could further bruise the peso, but Hillary Clinton wouldn't do much to reverse 26 scenario where PDVSA percent undervaluation of the real effective exchange rate compared to the 20-year average. doesn't get paid as much as The combination of lower oil prices, falling domestic crude production, tepid economic Venezuela." growth and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio are key challenges Mexico must address, even if — Robert Koenigsberger, CIO at Gramercy a status quo in U.S. trade relations is preserved. Oil and related revenues contribute to Funds Management about one third of Mexico's budget and output is at a 32-year low. Economic growth is forecast at 2.07 percent in 2016 and 2.26 percent in 2017, according to a Nov. 1 central bank survey. This is lower than potential GDP growth, What to Watch generally considered at or slightly below 3 percent. To make matters worse, Central Banks Deputy Governor Manuel Sanchez said Oct. Nov. 9: Mexico's CPI 21 that the GDP outlook has downside risks and that the government must urgently Nov. -
An Examination of the Legal Marijuana Use Age and Its Enforcement in California, a State Where Recreational Marijuana Is Legal
An examination of the legal marijuana use age and its enforcement in California, a state where recreational marijuana is legal March 2021 James C. Fell NORC at the University of Chicago Traci Toomey University of Minnesota Angela H. Eichelberger Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Julie Kubelka NORC at the University of Chicago Daniel Schriemer Darin Erickson University of Minnesota Contents ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................. 3 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 4 METHOD ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 Enforcement of minimum legal marijuana use age of 21 (MLMU-21) laws ...................................... 6 Pseudo-underage patron entry attempts ............................................................................................... 7 Sample design ............................................................................................................................ 8 Recruitment of pseudo-underage patrons ................................................................................. 9 Data collection protocol ............................................................................................................ 9 RESULTS .................................................................................................................................................. -
Argentina's 2001 Economic and Financial Crisis: Lessons for Europe
Argentina’s 2001 economic and Financial Crisis: Lessons for europe Former Under Secretary of Finance and Chief Advisor to the Minister of the Miguel Kiguel Economy, Argentina; Former President, Banco Hipotecario; Director, Econviews; Professor, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella he 2001 Argentine economic and financial banks and international reserves—was not enough crisis has many parallels with the problems to cover the financial liabilities of the consolidated Tthat some European countries are facing to- financial system . This was a major source of vulner- day . Prior to the crisis, Argentina was suffering a ability, especially because there is ample evidence deep recession, large levels of debt, twin deficits in that an economy without a lender of last resort is the fiscal and current accounts, and the country inherently unstable and subject to bank runs . This had an overvalued currency but devaluation was is not a pressing issue in Europe, where the Euro- not an option . pean Central Bank can provide liquidity to banks . Argentina tried in vain to restore its competitive- The trigger for the crisis in Argentina was a run on ness through domestic deflation and improving the banking system as people realized that there its solvency by increasing its fiscal accounts in were not enough dollars in the system to cover all the midst of a recession . The country also tried to the deposits . As the run intensified, the Argentine avoid a default first by resorting to a large financial government was forced to introduce a so-called package from the multilateral institutions (the so “fence” to control the outflow of deposits . -
The Cuban Convertible Peso
The Cuban Convertible Peso A Redefinitionof Dependence MARK PIPER T lie story of Cuba’s achievement of nationhood and its historical economic relationship with the United States is an instructive example of colonialism and neo-colonial dependence. From its conquest in 1511 until 1898. Cuba was a colony of the Spanish Crown, winning independence after ovo bloody insurgencies. Dtiring its rise to empire, the U.S. acquired substantial economic interest on the island and in 1898 became an active participant in the ouster of the governing Spanish colonial power. As expressed in his poem Nuesrra America,” Ctiban nationalist José Marti presciently feared that the U.S. participation w’ould lead to a new type ofcolonialism through ctiltural absorption and homogenization. Though the stated American goal of the Spanish .Arncrican Var was to gain independence for Cuba, after the Spanish stirrender in July 189$ an American military occupation of Cuba ensued. The Cuban independence of May1902 vas not a true independence, but by virtue of the Platt Amendmentw’as instead a complex paternalistic neo-eolonial program between a dominant American empire and a dependent Cuban state. An instrument ot the neo colonial program tvas the creation of a dependent Cuban economy, with the imperial metropole economically dominating its dependent nation-state in a relationship of inequality. i’o this end, on 8 December 189$, American president William McKinley isstied an executive order that mandated the usc of the U.S. dollar in Cuba and forced the withdrawing from circulation of Spanish colonial currency.’ An important hallmark for nationalist polities is the creation of currency. -
The Giant Sucking Sound: Did NAFTA Devour the Mexican Peso?
J ULY /AUGUST 1996 Christopher J. Neely is a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Kent A. Koch provided research assistance. This article examines the relationship The Giant between NAFTA and the peso crisis of December 1994. First, the provisions of Sucking Sound: NAFTA are reviewed, and then the links between NAFTA and the peso crisis are Did NAFTA examined. Despite a blizzard of innuendo and intimation that there was an obvious Devour the link between the passage of NAFTA and Mexican Peso? the peso devaluation, NAFTA’s critics have not been clear as to what the link actually was. Examination of their argu- Christopher J. Neely ments and economic theory suggests two possibilities: that NAFTA caused the Mex- t the end of 1993 Mexico was touted ican authorities to manipulate and prop as a model for developing countries. up the value of the peso for political rea- A Five years of prudent fiscal and mone- sons or that NAFTA’s implementation tary policy had dramatically lowered its caused capital flows that brought the budget deficit and inflation rate and the peso down. Each hypothesis is investi- government had privatized many enter- gated in turn. prises that were formerly state-owned. To culminate this progress, Mexico was preparing to enter into the North American NAFTA Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with NAFTA grew out of the U.S.–Canadian Canada and the United States. But less than Free Trade Agreement of 1988.1 It was a year later, in December 1994, investors signed by Mexico, Canada, and the United sold their peso assets, the value of the Mex- States on December 17, 1992. -
Forbidden Transactions and Black Markets
Forbidden Transactions and Black Markets Chenlin Gu,∗ Alvin E. Roth,y and Qingyun Wuzx Abstract Repugnant transactions are sometimes banned, but legal bans sometimes give rise to active black markets that are difficult if not impossible to extinguish. We explore a model in which the probability of extinguishing a black market depends on the extent to which its transactions are regarded as repugnant, as measured by the proportion of the population that disapproves of them, and the intensity of that repugnance, as measured by willingness to punish. Sufficiently repugnant markets can be extinguished with even mild punishments, while others are insuf- ficiently repugnant for this, and become exponentially more difficult to extinguish the larger they become. (JEL D47, K42, P16) Keywords: black market; repugnance; Markov process. 1 Introduction Why are drug dealers plentiful, but hitmen scarce? I.e. why is it relatively easy for a newcomer to the market to buy illegal drugs, but hard to hire a killer? Both of those transactions come with harsh criminal penalties, vigorously enforced: In the U.S., half of Federal prisoners have drug convictions,1 and murder for hire is treated ∗DMA, Ecole Normale Sup´erieure,PSL Research University, Paris 75230, France (email: chen- [email protected]). yDepartment of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States (email: al- [email protected]). zDepartment of Economics, and Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States (email: [email protected]). xWe thank Itai Ashlagi, Fuhito Kojima, Jean-Christophe Mourrat, Muriel Niederle, Andrei Shleifer, Gavin Wright, Zeyu Zheng and Zhengyuan Zhou for helpful discussions. -
Causes and Lessons of the Mexican Peso Crisis
Causes and Lessons of the Mexican Peso Crisis Stephany Griffith-Jones IDS, University of Sussex May 1997 This study has been prepared within the UNU/WIDER project on Short- Term Capital Movements and Balance of Payments Crises, which is co- directed by Dr Stephany Griffith-Jones, Fellow, IDS, University of Sussex; Dr Manuel F. Montes, Senior Research Fellow, UNU/WIDER; and Dr Anwar Nasution, Consultant, Center for Policy and Implementation Studies, Indonesia. UNU/WIDER gratefully acknowledges the financial contribution to the project by the Government of Sweden (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency - Sida). CONTENTS List of tables and charts iv Acknowledgements v Abstract vi I Introduction 1 II The apparently golden years, 1988 to early 1994 6 III February - December 1994: The clouds darken 15 IV The massive financial crisis explodes 24 V Conclusions and policy implications 31 Bibliography 35 iii LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS Table 1 Composition (%) of Mexican and other countries' capital inflows, 1990-93 8 Table 2 Mexico: Summary capital accounts, 1988-94 10 Table 3 Mexico: Non-resident investments in Mexican government securities, 1991-95 21 Table 4 Mexico: Quarterly capital account, 1993 - first quarter 1995 (in millions of US dollars) 22 Table 5 Mexican stock exchange (BMV), 1989-1995 27 Chart 1 Mexico: Real effective exchange rate (1980=100) 7 Chart 2 Current account balance (% of GDP) 11 Chart 3 Saving-investment gap and current account 12 Chart 4 Stock of net international reserves in 1994 (in millions of US dollars) 17 Chart 5 Mexico: Central bank sterilised intervention 18 Chart 6 Mexican exchange rate changes within the exchange rate band (November 1991 through mid-December 1994) 19 Chart 7 Mexican international reserves and Tesobonos outstanding 20 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank UNU/WIDER for financial support for this research which also draws on work funded by SIDA and CEPAL. -
The Chilean Peso Exchange-Rate Carry Trade and Turbulence
The Chilean peso exchange-rate carry trade and turbulence Paulo Cox and José Gabriel Carreño Abstract In this study we provide evidence regarding the relationship between the Chilean peso carry trade and currency crashes of the peso against other currencies. Using a rich dataset containing information from the local Chilean forward market, we show that speculation aimed at taking advantage of the recently large interest rate differentials between the peso and developed- country currencies has led to several episodes of abnormal turbulence, as measured by the exchange-rate distribution’s skewness coeffcient. In line with the interpretative framework linking turbulence to changes in the forward positions of speculators, we fnd that turbulence is higher in periods during which measures of global uncertainty have been particularly high. Keywords Currency carry trade, Chile, exchange rates, currency instability, foreign-exchange markets, speculation JEL classification E31, F41, G15, E24 Authors Paulo Cox is a senior economist in the Financial Policy Division of the Central Bank of Chile. [email protected]. José Gabriel Carreño is with the Financial Research Group of the Financial Policy Division of the Central Bank of Chile. [email protected] 72 CEPAL Review N° 120 • December 2016 I. Introduction Between 15 and 23 September 2011, the Chilean peso depreciated against the United States dollar by about 8.2% (see fgure 1). The magnitude of this depreciation was several times greater than the average daily volatility of the exchange rate for these currencies between 2002 and 2012.1 No events that would affect any fundamental factor that infuences the price relationship between these currencies seems to have occurred that would trigger this large and abrupt adjustment. -
Issues in the Implementation and Evolution of the Commercial
International Journal of Drug Policy 27 (2016) 1–12 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect International Journal of Drug Policy jo urnal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/drugpo Editors’ Choice Issues in the implementation and evolution of the commercial § recreational cannabis market in Colorado a, b a Todd Subritzky *, Simone Pettigrew , Simon Lenton a National Drug Research Institute, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia b School of Psychology and Speech Pathology, Curtin University, Kent St, Bentley, WA, 6102, Australia A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Article history: Background: For almost a century, the cultivation, sale and use of recreational cannabis has been Received 21 September 2015 prohibited by law in most countries. Recently, however, under ballot initiatives four states in the US have Received in revised form 27 November 2015 legalised commercial, non-medical (recreational) cannabis markets. Several other states will initiate Accepted 1 December 2015 similar ballot measures attached to the 2016 election that will also appoint a new President. As the first state to implement the legislation in 2014, Colorado is an important example to begin investigating early Keywords: consequences of specific policy choices while other jurisdictions consider their own legislation although Cannabis the empirical evidence base is only beginning to accrue. Regulation Method: This paper brings together material sourced from peer reviewed academic papers, grey Colorado Marijuana literature publications, reports in mass media and niche media outlets, and government publications to Testing outline the regulatory model and process in Colorado and to describe some of the issues that have Edibles emerged in the first 20 months of its operation. -
Legalization of Cannabis in Canada: Implementation Strategies and Public Health
LC LSIC Inquiry into Use of Cannabis in Victoria Submission 347 Inquiry into the use of Cannabis in Victoria Organisation Name: Your position or role: SURVEY QUESTIONS Drag the statements below to reorder them. In order of priority, please rank the themes you believe are most important for this Inquiry into the use of Cannabis in Victoria to consider:: Accessing and using cannabis,Education,Mental health,Public health,Social impacts,Young people and children,Public safety,Criminal activity What best describes your interest in our Inquiry? (select all that apply) : Individual Are there any additional themes we should consider? Select all that apply. Do you think there should be restrictions on the use of cannabis? : Personal use of cannabis should be legal. ,Sale of cannabis should be legal and regulated. ,Cultivation of cannabis for personal use should be legal.,There should be no restrictions. YOUR SUBMISSION Submission: Every term of reference can be cut and copied from Canada's implementation. If required, sale of cannabis can be done just as tobacco sales have been implemented, which would include the restrictions to underage people. Minimising the risk of underage people growing cannabis at home for personal use can be managed by advertising to parents with honest, non-divisive, independent science based studies, all of which are available to be copied from Canada's implementation. Do you have any additional comments or suggestions?: People should not live in fear of growing or utilising a plant. The illegality of Cannabis and crime surrounding it is because it is illegal, that's all. Decriminalise and permit either personal or public production stops the criminality and all associated negative impacts. -
Monetary and Exchange Rate Reform in Cuba: Lessons from Vietnam
Monetary and Exchange Rate Reform in Cuba: Lessons from Vietnam Pavel Vidal Alejandro Acknowledgements I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to IDE/JETRO for making possible my stay in Japan in 2011 and this research, which has been very important for my career and may contribute to the economic changes that are happening in Cuba at present. The advice of IDE researchers during my investigation process and presentations in seminars were very constructive, since they were both honest and thoughtful; I appreciate this enormously. Particular thanks are due to Mai Fujita, Nguyen Quoc Hung and all the people of the Latin American Studies Group. I express my gratitude to the staff of the VRF Program, especially Takao Tsuneishi and Kenji Marusaki. Three exceptional colleagues and friends, Kanako Yamaoka (my counterpart at IDE), Michihiro Sindo and Takashi Tanaka, as well as their family and friends, contributed not only to my research but to enriching my knowledge of the unique Japanese cultural context. Thanks to them I sometimes felt as if I were at home. I do not want to forget to mention the attentions and affection of Tomoko Murai from the IDE library. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the support of the Social Science Research Council (New York) for allowing me to visit Vietnam in 2010. Firsthand information and impressions I received from that study tour have been vital for this research. i Index of Contents Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................................................