Resisting Broken Windows: the Effect of Neighborhood Disorder on Political Behavior
Resisting Broken Windows: The Effect of Neighborhood Disorder on Political Behavior September 18, 2019 Abstract Concurrent housing and opioid crises have increased exposure to street-crime, homelessness and addiction in American cities. What are the political consequences of this increased neighbor- hood disorder? We examine a change in social context following the relocation of homelessness and drug treatment services in Boston. In 2014, an unexpected bridge closing forced nearly 1,000 people receiving emergency shelter or addiction treatment to relocate from an island in the Boston Harbor to mainland Boston, causing sustained increases in drug-use, loitering, and other features of neighborhood disorder. Residents near the relocation facilities mobilized to maintain order in their community. In the subsequent Mayoral election, their turnout grew 9 percentage points while participation in state and national elections was unchanged. Moreover, increased turnout favored the incumbent Mayor, consistent with voter learning about candidate quality following local shocks. Voters responded to neighborhood changes at the relevant elec- toral scale and rewarded responsive politicians. Keywords: Neighborhood disorder, local politics, political behavior, voter attribution Concurrent homelessness and drug crises have raged across many North American cities, sparking con- tentious debates about the appropriate political response (Sperance 2018, Whelan 2018, Wing 2019). The spatially concentrated nature of these crises – reified by tent encampments, shelters, drug clinics, and sy- ringes – portend particular worry because these visible elements of disorder encroach on the spaces lived and traveled on by citizens. Consequently, the governmental response to homelessness and addiction has been a central question in dozens of recent local elections (Appendix Table A1) and defined the tenures of incumbent mayors across the country (Halverstadt 2018, Malas & Lazo 2018).
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