Turkey’s Black Sea Predicament: Challenging or Accommodating Russia? Mitat ÇELİKPALA* & Emre ERŞEN** Abstract This article seeks to explore the development territories, 4) accommodating the diverse of the new security environment in the Black Sea policies of its NATO allies Black Sea and its implications for the without alienating Russia. future of regional dialogue between Turkey and Russia. The radically altered strategic Key Words balance in the Black Sea after the Russian- Georgian war in 2008 and Russia’s Turkey, Russia, Black Sea, Caucasus, NATO, annexation of Crimea in 2014 have Montreux Convention, Jet Crisis. urged Turkish policymakers to revise their traditional policies toward this region. Introduction Yet Ankara currently faces four main Turkey and Russia are the two most challenges in this quest: i) maintaining significant regional actors in the Black the status quo established by the Montreux Sea region. While the former has the Convention, ii) protecting its interests longest shoreline among all the littoral vis-à-vis Russia’s strengthened military states surrounding the Black Sea, the presence in the Black Sea, iii) dealing with latter has geopolitically dominated the significant security implications of the th the region since the 18 century. three Russian anti-access/area denial Before the Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca (A2/AD) spheres built around Turkish in 1774, the Black Sea was mainly viewed as a “Turkish lake” due to the * Prof., Kadir Has University, Faculty of Ottoman Empire’s centuries-long Economics, Administrative and Social regional dominance in the Balkans Sciences, Istanbul, E-mail:
[email protected] and Crimea. For many years, this ** Assoc.