Matrix of the Metrics: Using Data to Project Radio Hits
Special thanks to: Music Decision Survey 2017
Top factors by PDs/MDs for adding a single “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences
1. Gut feeling 97% intangible 2. Artist stature/reputation 90% intangible 3. Playlist fit (tempo, sound) 88% intangible 4. Sales data 82% research 5. Prior single’s success/lack of 80% airplay
Country Aircheck/Stone Door Media Lab Music Decision Survey, Nov-Dec. 2017 Music Decision Survey 2017
Top factors by PDs/MDs for adding a single “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences
6. New: Local streaming data 76% research 7. Local callout 70% research 8. Word-of-mouth from PDs 70% intangible 9. New: Corporate mandate 69%* internal 10. Artist free show for station 69% marketing
*among stations that have them Music Decision Survey 2017
Top Gainers: Year-to-Year Factors on New Adds “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences
(27-24) Most Added data/ranking +17% (20-37%) (12-11) National airplay chart growth +15% (54-69%) (3-3) Playlist fit (tempo, sound, etc.) +13% (75-88%) (15-13) National airplay chart position +12% (49-61%) (21-20) Shazam data +10% (32-42%) Music Decision Survey 2017
Top factors by PDs/MDs for spin increases “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences
1. Local callout 87% research 2. Gut feeling 83% intangible 3. Playlist fit (tempo, sound) 82% intangible 4. Sales data 82% research 5. Artist stature/reputation 70% intangible Music Decision Survey 2017
Top factors by PDs/MDs for spin increases “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 6. New: Local streaming data 69% research 7. Artist free show for station 63% marketing 8. Prior single’s success/lack of 63% airplay 9. Local concert appearance 60% marketing 10. National airplay chart growth 59% airplay 11. New: Corporate mandate 59% internal
*among stations that have them Music Decision Survey 2017 Top Gainers: Year-to-Year Factors on Spin Increases “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences
(12-8) Prior single’s success/lack of +13% (50-63%) (35-30) Most Added data/ranking +13% (9-22%) (6-4) Sales data +10% (72-82%) (23-22) Shazam data +9% (27-36%) (22-20) Mscore data +7% (31-38%) Matrix of the Metrics
1 Big streams per spin in second airplay chart week
2 Big Shazams per Spin in second airplay chart week
3 Pandora ranker: Usually ahead of radio on projecting Top 10s
4 Most Added: Top 3, Big Add Week, Multiple Top 10 Weeks
5 National Airplay Chart Growth: Airborne (60%) 6 National Airplay Chart Position: High Debut, Airborne Debut 7 Specific Stations: Fast to Familiarity, Short Test, Early, Selective The top 10 Country BDS singles average 1 almost 3 million streams per week.
Country streams by Nielsen Music/BDS chart position, Aug. 7-Dec. 18, 2017 3,500,000 2,996,960 3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000 1,842,300
1,500,000 1,211,000 866,100 1,000,000 642,800 500,000 366,834
0 rank 1-10 11-20. 21-30. 31-40. 41-50. 51-75. High early “streams per spin” 1 indicate predictive potential
Streams per spin (2nd chart week) Average peak Pct. Reaching #1 1,400+ 5.5 82% 601+ 12.8 54% 301-600 15.0 48% All singles 18.1 40% 0-300 23.5 23%
*Country singles, Nielsen Music/BDS streams, Mediabase spins 8/10/15-1/8/18 So do Shazams per spin 2 in the 2nd chart week
Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching Chart Weeks (2nd chart week) Chart peak No. 1 to No. 1 10+ 5.4 84% 20.3 wks 9+ 6.8 76% 21.1 wks 7.0-8.99 9.8 61% 24.3 wks 5.50-6.99 15.8 53% 24.6 wks (median 5.51) 18.1 40% 24.0 wks
Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 29, 2018 Shazams per spin 2 in 2nd chart week
Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching Chart weeks (2nd chart week) Chart peak No. 1 to No. 1 4.00-5.49 17.3 25% 29.8
2.00-3.99 27.1 14% 32.3
0.00-1.99 42.8 0% ..…
Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 29, 2018 Newer artists with strong 2 early Shazam performance 2nd wk Shazams per MB Spin Peak Russell Dickerson/Yours 14.27 #1 Old Dominion/No Such Thing As A Broken Heart 11.16 #1 Garth Brooks/Ask Me How I Know 10.87 #1 Brett Young/In Case You Didn’t Know 10.49 #1 Luke Combs/When It Rains It Pours 10.03 #1 LANco/Greatest Love Story 8.48 #1 Midland/Drinkin’ Problem 7.62 #1 Kane Brown f/Lauren Alaina/What Ifs 7.19 #1 Carly Pearce/Every Little Thing 7.13 #1 Dylan Scott/My Girl 6.48 #1 Pandora often projects 3 big Country hits early Chart peak Weeks Pandora ahead to Top 10 Maren Morris/I Could Use A Love Song #1 15 Dustin Lynch/Small Town Boy #1 13 Kip Moore/More Girls Like You #1 11 Josh Turner/Hometown Girl #1 11 Garth Brooks/Ask Me How I Know #1 10 Cole Swindell/Flatliner #1 9 Justin Moore/Somebody Else Will #1 9 Brett Eldredge/Wanna Be That Song #1 9 Russell Dickerson/Yours #1 9 Keith Urban f/Carrie Underwood/The Fighter #1 8 Dan + Shay/How Not To #1 8 Dylan Scott/My Girl #1 8 Brett Young/Sleep Without You #1 8 Kane Brown f/Lauren Alaina/What Ifs #1 7 Aug. 8, 2016-Jan. 16, 2018: Pandora Top Spins chart, Country Aircheck/Mediabase Pandora projects Top 10 hits before Country radio 3 most of the time.
Top 10 Pandora first Pct. when Avg. Pandora radio hits to Top 10 Pandora is first lead over radio
72 58 81% 5.4 weeks
Aug. 8, 2016-Dec. 18, 2017: Pandora Top Spins chart, Country Aircheck/Mediabase No. 1 Most Added is a 4 reliable No. 1 hit indicator.
Reached No. 1* 62%
All other top 10 Most Added singles** 17%
*Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 2006-Jan. 8, 2018 **Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 8, 2018 Outcomes of 4 Most Added Singles
Best Most Added rank #1s Avg. Peak No. 1* 62% 7.2 No. 2** 29% 15.3 No. 3*** 26% 21.1 No. 4*** 7% 32.8 No. 5+*** 2% 41.1 *Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 21, 2006-Dec. 18, 2017 **Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Jan. 3, 2012-Dec. 18, 2017 ***Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Dec. 18, 2017 5 Chart Growth: Speed to Airborne Shows Correlations to Outcome
Airborne Status Achieved #1s Avg. Peak Chart week 1-3 63% 6.0
Chart week 4-6 33% 16.8
Chart week 7+ 26% 22.4
Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 8, 2018 6 Chart Position: Strong Debut Shows Correlations to Outcome
Airborne Status Achieved #1s Avg. Peak Debut Top 45 67% 7.6
Debut 46-48 31% 20.9
Debut 49-50 21% 28.5
Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 8, 2018 7 Metrics among stations worth watching:
• Low turnover = Speed to familiarity • Short test periods before committing • Selectivity: Aligned with national hits • Early to add new music 7
Establishing Familiarity with a New Song: 1st exposure: Curiosity 2nd exposure: Recognition 3rd exposure: Decision (like or not) Dayparting Makes Big Difference 7 in Achieving Familiarity Daypart Avg. spins to familiarity 6am-7pm 76
6am-midnight 93 6am-6am 118
7pm-midnight 250 Midnight-6am (overnights) 787
CA/Mediabase/Nielsen BDS Country reporting stations: Nielsen Audio, Spring 2017, Mon-Sun, based on 12+ cume/AQHP (turnover) x 3 Stations that are Fastest to 7 Deliver Familiarity Markets 1-25 Spins to familiarity KYGO/Denver (18) 133.2
Markets 26-50 WNOE/New Orleans (49) 75.9
Markets 51-100 WYRK/Buffalo (58) 55.8
Markets 101+ WTCM/Traverse City, MI (159) 37.8 Nielsen Audio, Spring 2017, Mon-Sun, 6am-6am, basis: 12+ cume/AQHP (turnover) x 3; pop. Fall 2017 Main Chart: Shortest “test period” 7 on singles reaching No. 1 Avg. weeks before 7+ spins per week 1. WSLC/Roanoke, VA 0.03 2. WGH/Norfolk 0.20 2. KVOO/Tulsa 0.20 4. WWKA/Orlando 0.30 5. WCYQ/Knoxville 0.33 6. KTTS/Springfield, MO 0.43 7. WUSN/Chicago 0.47 7. KCYY/San Antonio 0.47 7. KWEN/Tulsa 0.47 10. KKWF/Seattle 0.50 Commence 7+ spins/week on 30 #1s; CA/MB, Nielsen BDS: 2015-2017 30 BDS-monitored Activators: 7 Shortest “test period” on singles reaching No. 1 Avg. weeks before 7+ spins per week 1. WKCN/Columbus, GA 0.83 2. KKNU/Eugene, OR 0.86 3. KHAK/Cedar Rapids, IA 1.00 4. WKLI/Albany, NY 1.14 5. WBYT/South Bend, IN 1.21 6. WTCM/Traverse City, MI 1.45 7. WWFG/Salisbury, MD 1.48 8. WKML/Fayetteville, NC 1.52 9. WQXK/Youngstown, OH 1.77 10. KUAD/Ft. Collins, CO 1.86 Commence 7+ spins/week on 30 #1s; CA/MB, Nielsen BDS: 2015-2017 Main chart: Early on No. 1s and 7 Selective on New Singles Combo Rank Selectivity Rank Early Add Rank
1. WBUL/Lexington, KY (103) 22.5 16 29
2. WKMK/Monmouth-Ocean (54) 28.5 33 24
3. KSSN/Little Rock (86) 32.0 16 48
4. KTTS/Springfield, MO (135) 32.5 16 49
5. WDSY/Pittsburgh (28) 35.5 56 15
6. KILT/Houston (6) 36.0 5 67
6. WHKO/Dayton (64) 36.0 2 70
8. WKSJ/Mobile (100) 37.0 46 28
9. KUZZ/Bakersfield (79) 37.5 16 59
10. WYNK/Baton Rouge (75) 38.5 33 44
10. WAMZ/Louisville (55) 38.5 56 21 Commence 10+ spins/week on 36 non-national hits (>35 peak); 7+ spins/week on 30 #1s; CA/MB, Nielsen BDS: 2015-2017 30 BDS-monitored Activators: Early on #1s 7 and Selective on New Singles Combo Rank Selectivity Rank Early Add Rank
1. WOKO/Burlington, VT (148) 5.5 8 3
2. WBYT/South Bend, IN (184) 6.0 4 8
3. KIXQ/Joplin, MO (231) 7.5 8 7
4. WIBW/Topeka, KS (204) 9.0 1 17
4. WKSF/Asheville, NC (157) 9.0 4 14
6. WFRE/Frederick, MD (191) 10.0 18 2
7. WDEN/Macon, GA (130) 11.0 1 21
7. KKNU/Eugene, OR (147) 11.0 18 4
9. WQXK/Youngstown, OH (131) 12.0 8 16
10. WMSI/Jackson, MS (127) 13.5 4 23
10. WLWI/Montgomery, AL (156) 13.5 8 19
10. WACO/Waco, TX (193) 13.5 18 9 Commence 10+ spins/week on 36 non-national hits (>35 peak); 7+ spins/week on 30 #1s; CA/MB, Nielsen BDS: 2015-2017 Strong Scenarios for No. 1 Outcomes
Pct. #1s Avg. Peak 10+ Shazams per spin (2nd chart week) 88% 5.6 1,400 streams per spin (2nd chart week) 82% 5.5 9+ Shazams per spin (2nd chart week) 78% 6.9 60+% of reporters adding in one week 74% 4.6 5+ consecutive wks Top 10 Most Added 68% 5.1 Debut at 45 or better on CA/Mediabase 67% 7.6 Simultaneous debut and Airborne Status 65% 4.0 No. 1 Most Added 2x 65% 2.9 All charting singles 40% 18.1 Strong Scenarios for No. 1 Outcomes Pct. #1s Avg. Peak 45-59% of reporters adding in one week 64% 5.5 Airborne (60% support) by 2nd chart week 63% 4.8 7.0-8.99 Shazams/spin (2nd chart week) 63% 8.4 No. 1 Most Added 1x 62% 7.2 No. 1 Most Added 3x 61% 1.6 Airborne by 3rd chart week 57% 6.0 601+ streams per spin (2nd chart week) 54% 2.8 Airborne status (60% of reporters) 49% 11.9 All charting singles 40% 18.1 Strong Matrix Projecting Radio Hits
Sam Hunt Little Big Town Russell Dickerson T. Rhett/M. Morris Body Like A … Better Man Yours Craving You (MCA) (Capitol) (Triple Tigers) (Valory)
Most Added Rank 1 1 2 1 Big Add Week 106 60 39 97 Chart Debut 29 49 50 38 Consec. Wks Most Added 3 7 1 3 Debut to Airborne (wks) 1 3 2 1 Shazams/Spin (5.54 avg.) 19.28 17.35 14.27 11.85 Streams/Spin (807 avg.) 2,311 1,062 1,311 1,998 Pandora peak 1 2 4 2 Matrix of the Metrics Summary
1 Big streams per spin in second airplay chart week
2 Big Shazams per Spin in second airplay chart week
3 Pandora ranker: Usually ahead of radio on projecting Top 10s
4 Most Added: Top 3, Big 1st Week, Multiple Top 10 Weeks
5 National Airplay Chart Growth: Airborne (60%) 6 National Airplay Chart Position: High Debut 7 Specific Stations: Fast to Familiarity; Short Test; Selective; Early Thank you!
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text or call 615-406-4567 Strong Shazam/Stream Data Projecting Radio Hits Luke Combs Kane Brown Brett Young Dustin Lynch Hurricane What Ifs In Case You Didn’t… Small Town Boy (River House/Columbia) (RCA) (BMLGR) (Broken Bow)
Average for #1s: Shazams/Spin (7.37) 5.93 7.19 10.49 11.70 Streams/Spin (807) 1,998 3,138 1,378 2,100 Most Added Rank (1.7) 6 2-tie 3 3 Airborne (3.2 wks) 6 10 3 5 Shazams/Streams based on second chart week, August 2015-Jan. 8, 2018 Examples of Modest Outcomes Despite Strong Data + Supportive Radio
Artist A Artist B Artist C Artist D
Most Added Rank 1 1 2 2 Chart weeks to Airborne 4 1 2 3 Shazams per Spin 6.02 9.43 9.70 12.64 Streams per Spin 1,260 1,229 2,053 1,157 Peak 20 18 15 33 When Radio Proved Early Data Wrong
Artist A Artist B Artist C (Average for #1s:) Most Added Rank (1.7) 1 2 1
Airborne (3.2 wks) 1 1 1
Shazams/Spin (7.37) 3.31 2.39 5.21
Streams/Spin (807) 146 400 395
Shazams/Streams based on second chart week, August 2015-Jan. 8, 2018