Matrix of the Metrics: Using Data to Project Radio Hits Special thanks to: Music Decision Survey 2017 Top factors by PDs/MDs for adding a single “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 1. Gut feeling 97% intangible 2. Artist stature/reputation 90% intangible 3. Playlist fit (tempo, sound) 88% intangible 4. Sales data 82% research 5. Prior single’s success/lack of 80% airplay Country Aircheck/Stone Door Media Lab Music Decision Survey, Nov-Dec. 2017 Music Decision Survey 2017 Top factors by PDs/MDs for adding a single “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 6. New: Local streaming data 76% research 7. Local callout 70% research 8. Word-of-mouth from PDs 70% intangible 9. New: Corporate mandate 69%* internal 10. Artist free show for station 69% marketing *among stations that have them Music Decision Survey 2017 Top Gainers: Year-to-Year Factors on New Adds “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences (27-24) Most Added data/ranking +17% (20-37%) (12-11) National airplay chart growth +15% (54-69%) (3-3) Playlist fit (tempo, sound, etc.) +13% (75-88%) (15-13) National airplay chart position +12% (49-61%) (21-20) Shazam data +10% (32-42%) Music Decision Survey 2017 Top factors by PDs/MDs for spin increases “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 1. Local callout 87% research 2. Gut feeling 83% intangible 3. Playlist fit (tempo, sound) 82% intangible 4. Sales data 82% research 5. Artist stature/reputation 70% intangible Music Decision Survey 2017 Top factors by PDs/MDs for spin increases “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 6. New: Local streaming data 69% research 7. Artist free show for station 63% marketing 8. Prior single’s success/lack of 63% airplay 9. Local concert appearance 60% marketing 10. National airplay chart growth 59% airplay 11. New: Corporate mandate 59% internal *among stations that have them Music Decision Survey 2017 Top Gainers: Year-to-Year Factors on Spin Increases “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences (12-8) Prior single’s success/lack of +13% (50-63%) (35-30) Most Added data/ranking +13% (9-22%) (6-4) Sales data +10% (72-82%) (23-22) Shazam data +9% (27-36%) (22-20) Mscore data +7% (31-38%) Matrix of the Metrics 1 Big streams per spin in second airplay chart week 2 Big Shazams per Spin in second airplay chart week 3 Pandora ranker: Usually ahead of radio on projecting Top 10s 4 Most Added: Top 3, Big Add Week, Multiple Top 10 Weeks 5 National Airplay Chart Growth: Airborne (60%) 6 National Airplay Chart Position: High Debut, Airborne Debut 7 Specific Stations: Fast to Familiarity, Short Test, Early, Selective The top 10 Country BDS singles average 1 almost 3 million streams per week. Country streams by Nielsen Music/BDS chart position, Aug. 7-Dec. 18, 2017 3,500,000 2,996,960 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,842,300 1,500,000 1,211,000 866,100 1,000,000 642,800 500,000 366,834 0 rank 1-10 11-20. 21-30. 31-40. 41-50. 51-75. High early “streams per spin” 1 indicate predictive potential Streams per spin (2nd chart week) Average peak Pct. Reaching #1 1,400+ 5.5 82% 601+ 12.8 54% 301-600 15.0 48% All singles 18.1 40% 0-300 23.5 23% *Country singles, Nielsen Music/BDS streams, Mediabase spins 8/10/15-1/8/18 So do Shazams per spin 2 in the 2nd chart week Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching Chart Weeks (2nd chart week) Chart peak No. 1 to No. 1 10+ 5.4 84% 20.3 wks 9+ 6.8 76% 21.1 wks 7.0-8.99 9.8 61% 24.3 wks 5.50-6.99 15.8 53% 24.6 wks (median 5.51) 18.1 40% 24.0 wks Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 29, 2018 Shazams per spin 2 in 2nd chart week Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching Chart weeks (2nd chart week) Chart peak No. 1 to No. 1 4.00-5.49 17.3 25% 29.8 2.00-3.99 27.1 14% 32.3 0.00-1.99 42.8 0% ..… Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 29, 2018 Newer artists with strong 2 early Shazam performance 2nd wk Shazams per MB Spin Peak Russell Dickerson/Yours 14.27 #1 Old Dominion/No Such Thing As A Broken Heart 11.16 #1 Garth Brooks/Ask Me How I Know 10.87 #1 Brett Young/In Case You Didn’t Know 10.49 #1 Luke Combs/When It Rains It Pours 10.03 #1 LANco/Greatest Love Story 8.48 #1 Midland/Drinkin’ Problem 7.62 #1 Kane Brown f/Lauren Alaina/What Ifs 7.19 #1 Carly Pearce/Every Little Thing 7.13 #1 Dylan Scott/My Girl 6.48 #1 Pandora often projects 3 big Country hits early Chart peak Weeks Pandora ahead to Top 10 Maren Morris/I Could Use A Love Song #1 15 Dustin Lynch/Small Town Boy #1 13 Kip Moore/More Girls Like You #1 11 Josh Turner/Hometown Girl #1 11 Garth Brooks/Ask Me How I Know #1 10 Cole Swindell/Flatliner #1 9 Justin Moore/Somebody Else Will #1 9 Brett Eldredge/Wanna Be That Song #1 9 Russell Dickerson/Yours #1 9 Keith Urban f/Carrie Underwood/The Fighter #1 8 Dan + Shay/How Not To #1 8 Dylan Scott/My Girl #1 8 Brett Young/Sleep Without You #1 8 Kane Brown f/Lauren Alaina/What Ifs #1 7 Aug. 8, 2016-Jan. 16, 2018: Pandora Top Spins chart, Country Aircheck/Mediabase Pandora projects Top 10 hits before Country radio 3 most of the time. Top 10 Pandora first Pct. when Avg. Pandora radio hits to Top 10 Pandora is first lead over radio 72 58 81% 5.4 weeks Aug. 8, 2016-Dec. 18, 2017: Pandora Top Spins chart, Country Aircheck/Mediabase No. 1 Most Added is a 4 reliable No. 1 hit indicator. Reached No. 1* 62% All other top 10 Most Added singles** 17% *Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 2006-Jan. 8, 2018 **Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 8, 2018 Outcomes of 4 Most Added Singles Best Most Added rank #1s Avg. Peak No. 1* 62% 7.2 No. 2** 29% 15.3 No. 3*** 26% 21.1 No. 4*** 7% 32.8 No. 5+*** 2% 41.1 *Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 21, 2006-Dec. 18, 2017 **Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Jan. 3, 2012-Dec. 18, 2017 ***Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Dec. 18, 2017 5 Chart Growth: Speed to Airborne Shows Correlations to Outcome Airborne Status Achieved #1s Avg. Peak Chart week 1-3 63% 6.0 Chart week 4-6 33% 16.8 Chart week 7+ 26% 22.4 Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 8, 2018 6 Chart Position: Strong Debut Shows Correlations to Outcome Airborne Status Achieved #1s Avg. Peak Debut Top 45 67% 7.6 Debut 46-48 31% 20.9 Debut 49-50 21% 28.5 Country Aircheck/Mediabase, Aug. 3, 2015-Jan. 8, 2018 7 Metrics among stations worth watching: • Low turnover = Speed to familiarity • Short test periods before committing • Selectivity: Aligned with national hits • Early to add new music 7 Establishing Familiarity with a New Song: 1st exposure: Curiosity 2nd exposure: Recognition 3rd exposure: Decision (like or not) Dayparting Makes Big Difference 7 in Achieving Familiarity Daypart Avg. spins to familiarity 6am-7pm 76 6am-midnight 93 6am-6am 118 7pm-midnight 250 Midnight-6am (overnights) 787 CA/Mediabase/Nielsen BDS Country reporting stations: Nielsen Audio, Spring 2017, Mon-Sun, based on 12+ cume/AQHP (turnover) x 3 Stations that are Fastest to 7 Deliver Familiarity Markets 1-25 Spins to familiarity KYGO/Denver (18) 133.2 Markets 26-50 WNOE/New Orleans (49) 75.9 Markets 51-100 WYRK/Buffalo (58) 55.8 Markets 101+ WTCM/Traverse City, MI (159) 37.8 Nielsen Audio, Spring 2017, Mon-Sun, 6am-6am, basis: 12+ cume/AQHP (turnover) x 3; pop. Fall 2017 Main Chart: Shortest “test period” 7 on singles reaching No. 1 Avg. weeks before 7+ spins per week 1. WSLC/Roanoke, VA 0.03 2. WGH/Norfolk 0.20 2. KVOO/Tulsa 0.20 4. WWKA/Orlando 0.30 5. WCYQ/Knoxville 0.33 6. KTTS/Springfield, MO 0.43 7. WUSN/Chicago 0.47 7. KCYY/San Antonio 0.47 7. KWEN/Tulsa 0.47 10. KKWF/Seattle 0.50 Commence 7+ spins/week on 30 #1s; CA/MB, Nielsen BDS: 2015-2017 30 BDS-monitored Activators: 7 Shortest “test period” on singles reaching No. 1 Avg. weeks before 7+ spins per week 1. WKCN/Columbus, GA 0.83 2. KKNU/Eugene, OR 0.86 3. KHAK/Cedar Rapids, IA 1.00 4. WKLI/Albany, NY 1.14 5. WBYT/South Bend, IN 1.21 6. WTCM/Traverse City, MI 1.45 7. WWFG/Salisbury, MD 1.48 8. WKML/Fayetteville, NC 1.52 9. WQXK/YoungstoWn, OH 1.77 10. KUAD/Ft. Collins, CO 1.86 Commence 7+ spins/week on 30 #1s; CA/MB, Nielsen BDS: 2015-2017 Main chart: Early on No. 1s and 7 Selective on New Singles Combo Rank Selectivity Rank Early Add Rank 1. WBUL/Lexington, KY (103) 22.5 16 29 2. WKMK/Monmouth-Ocean (54) 28.5 33 24 3. KSSN/Little Rock (86) 32.0 16 48 4. KTTS/Springfield, MO (135) 32.5 16 49 5. WDSY/Pittsburgh (28) 35.5 56 15 6. KILT/Houston (6) 36.0 5 67 6.