AUGUST1955 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 163

THE WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF AUGUST 1955' Including the ClimatologicalBackground for Hurricanes Connie and Diane JEROME NAMIAS AND CARLOS R. DUNN Extended Forecast Section, U. S. Weather Bureau, Washington. D. C.

ABSTRACT

The general circulation during August 1955 was characterized by an abnormally contracted circumpolar westerly whirl and an associated northward displacement of the belt of subtropical anticyclones and subtropical easterlies. While this zonal circulation was similar in many respects to thatof the preceding July andled to a pattern of temper- ature anomaly over the similar to July's, the rainfall differed tremendously, particularly over the Northeast where flood-producing rains associated with hurricanes Connie and Diane replaced a regime of drought. The differences between July and August are accounted for by westward displacements of the centers of action coupled withmarkedly similar anomalous zonal circulations (i.e., displaced poleward). Theearly onset of the hurricane season is attributed to the premature northward displacement of the subtropical belt of anticyclones. The unprecedented precipitation associated with hurricanes Connie and Diane is believed to be partially related to injection of abnormally moist tropical air from an appreciably warmer than normal sea surface.

The 1955 crop of hurricanes contained two early season Climatic fluctuations of shortand long durationin storms, Connie andDiane, which will furnish ample temperature, precipitation, andother meteorological material for several meteorological investigations. It is elements are accepted by meteorologists as characteristic hoped that these investigations, as well researches in phenomena of the atmosphere. Since the genesis and as connection with hurricanes in general, will not ignore the paths assumed by tropical storms are extremely sensitive long-period aspects of the general circulation which in to a number of factors it is not surprising that there are effect setthe stage for smaller-scale phenomena that great fluctuations in frequency, character, and paths of subsequently develop. hurricanes. The senior author of this paper has tried to In thecase of hurricanes Connie and Diane two climato- elucidate this point in connection with month-to-month logical factors bearing ontheir formation and course and year-to-year fluctuations in the vulnerability of the appear highly pertinent : Atlantic Seaboard to tropical storms [l]. 1. The planevry zonal wind syst,ems during the two In thisconnection the statementsexpressed by Bergeron months preceding their formationwere appreciably [2] are especially noteworthy: farther north than normal, and Another problem, of much more far-reaching consequences, 2. The regions in which the zonal wind systems were presents itself. What kind of secular changes may have existed in the frequency and intensity of the hurricane vortices on our Earth? displaced farthestnorthward wereover eastern And what changes may be expected in future? We know nothing North America, the eastern Atlantic and Europe, about thesethings, but I hope thatthis paper may have shown and the west central Pacific. that even quite a small change in the different factors controlling These displacements in August are illuminated by the the life history of a hurricane may produce, or may have produced, zonal wind speed diagrams shown in figures 1 and 2A. great changes in the pathsof hurricanes and in theirfrequency and intensity. A minor alterationin the surface temperature of the Theabnormal northward displacement of zonalwind sun, in the general composition of theearth's atmosphere, or in systems was Observed starting as late June* For the rotation of the earth, might be able to change considerably the example, 700-mb. zonal wind speed profiles for the period energy balance andthe balance of forces within such a delicate from midJune to midJuly (not shown)showed a peak mechanism as the tropicalhurricane. During certain geological at 520 N.-a full 100 north of normal. The northward epochs, hurricanes may have been just as frequent asthe cyclones of our latitudes, or they may have occurred all over the oceans and displacement during July was associated with record- within all coastal regions, andthey may have been even more breaking and sustained heat and Over northeast violent than nowadays. During other periods they may have been portions of the country, but relatively Cool, Wet conditions lacking altogether. In studying paleo-climatic and paleo-biological Over the Southeast-a topic treated at length in the

1 See Charts I-XV following p. 184 for analyzedclimatological data for the month. preceding article of this series [31*

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20 -4 0 4 8 12 M PS FIQUEE1.-Mean 700-mb. zonal wind speed profile in the Western Hemisphere (0' westward to 180') for August 1955. An abnor- mally contracted circumpolar vortex was associated with above normal westerlies north of 45" N. (stippled area) and subnormal westerlies to the south. Note the strong easterliesin the sub- tropics.

Since thesubtropical Atlantic anticyclone waswell north of normal and associated with a compensating def- icit of mass in lower latitudes, it is perhaps not surprising that the Atlantic hurricane season got under way early with detection of hurricane Connie on . In other words, the northward seasonal march of the plane- tary zonal circulation was advanced ahead of normal, so that events (i. e., hurricanes) which most frequently get FIGURE2.-(A) Mean 700-mb. isotachs and (B) departure from underway in late August could getan early start. In normal of zonal wind speed component (both in meters per sec- ond) for August 1955. Solid arrowsin (A) indicate positions this respect a quotation from C. L. Ray 141 seems pertinent: of mean 700-mb. jet axes, and broken arrows their normal August Spring and summer pressure deviations in the NorthAtlantic, as positions. The westerly jet was north of its normal location indicated by the pressure at San Juan, have an inverse relation to at all longitudes in the Western Hemisphere. Solid arrows in (B) tropical storm frequencies of the summer andautumn months. delineate axes of maximum easterly and westerly anomalous flow This is best indicated where pressure continues above normal from with westerlies considered positive. May through July, but is also related definitely to the July depar- ture considered singly, and also as early as April-May. strongly northeastward into Europe, thereby introd* ing This statement of Ray's reflects the summer persistence a northeasterlyflow which, through vorticity flux, lef,,,3 to of anomalous features of the general circulation over an anomalously sharp and deep trough extending along southern portions of theNorth Atlantic.Indeed per- the Spanish and African coasts (see fig. 4 A and B). It sistence of 700-mb. height anomalies over this hurricane was probably at the base of this trough that Connie de- breeding area is especially pronounced from July through veloped-its formation encouraged bythe injection of September (seefig. 3 A and B from [5]). Whatever the cyclonic vorticity from thenorth andby associated ultimate cause of this persistence, it seems clear that the vertical destabilization processes as discussed in an earlier same factors which led to the great frequency of easterly report [6]. If this hypothesis is correct, the frequency of waves which affected southeastern United States in July tropical storms of the Cape Verde type may well depend [3] also favored the early incidence of hurricanes in upon the degree of development or suppression of the August . protruding Azores ridge to the north. While hurricane Connie was first reported on August 4 While the physical explanation of persistence of circula- at about 16.6' N. and 48.0' W., there is some indication tion features from July through August lies outside the that it developed off North Africa some time earlier. At scope of this report, there may have been some resultant any rate planetary wave forms over the North Atlantic effects on water temperatures off the Atlantic Seaboard evolved in a manner which the authorshave come to which could have had a profound bearing on the hurri- associate with tropical storm formation. Thus in late canes Connie and Diane-especially regarding their July theridge of the Azores upper level ant.icyclone thrust copious rainfall.

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FIO~~RE3.-Isopleths of one-month lag correlation between mean monthIy heights of the 700-mb. surface for period 1932-1951 (from[5] ). Persistence over southern portions of theNorth Atlantic is especially pronounced from July to September.

The senior author of this report spent part of the past FIGURE4.-(A) Mean 700-mb. contours and (B) mean, 700-mb. height departures fromnormal (both in tens of feet) for July summer at Woods Hole on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. On 23-27, 1955. Sharptrough west of the Spanish and African this seacoast peninsula, afternoon sea breezes attended by coasts resulting from projecting ridge to its north was probable comfortable temperaturesand humidities arethe rule. spawning ground for hurricane Connie. However, in the month preceding hurricanes Connie and Diane the sea breezes were oppressive to a degree rarely felt. Although no complete observations are available In order to test thishypothesis all ship observations taken from this point the temperature and humidity observa- from midJuly to mid-August appearingon the eight .tions from Boston andHartford (table 1) indicate the synoptic charts per day in the area off the northeast coast abnormal warmth and moisture. were gathered andtabulated in the 2g-degree squares It seems probable that such high temperatures and delineated in figure 5. The temperatures were then aver- particularly high m.oisture contents may havebeen due in aged for each squareand theresultant values for the part to abnormally warm waters off the northeast coast. periodwere compared with the long-period (1912-31) TABLE1.-July and August 1356 surface temperature and moisture averages given by Slocum [7]. The departures from this content at Boston and Hartford long-period average (or normal) are given in figure 5 along with the number of observations in each square. Mean surface tem- perature F. (to Mixing ratio (g/kg) There seems to be little question that surface water nearest degree) 1955 temperatures off the northeast coast were above normal Departure and especially so in areas close to the coast. While the Observed Normalfrom Mean normal complete explanation of this anomaly is a problem prima- - ______rily for oceanographers, it appears that atmospheric con- Boston, Mass ______July ._..______.77 72 13.4 +4. 2 August .___._..__75 71 13.2 +4.0 ditions of July andearly August favored abnormal heating Hartford, Corn______July ...__.___.__.77 74 12.8 +3. 7 August ____ - __ __- 71 74 12.8 +3. 7 of surface waters in this area because: 1. The air masses over the entire Northeast were

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 04:04 AM UTC 166 MONTHLYR.EVIEW WEATHER AUGUBT1955 air from the sea, or at least helping to maintain the high moisture content characteristicof tropical air at itssource. The suggestion is that thetorrential rainsaccompanying hurricanes Connie and Diane, particularly Diane which moved just south of New England, were caused not only by the usual factors associated with hurricanes, but also by the abundance of moisture supplied by an appreciably warmer than normal ocean source. Of course, this would not explain the complex detail of the isohyetal patterns of both st.orms. Expressed in other words, it seems that the oceanic source region for tropical air was in July and August of 1955 effectively extended northward along the Atlantic Seaboard. At least, these data are of sufficient interest to suggest that studies of ocean temperature anomalies should not be ignored in the search for the many rain-producing elements associated with tropical cyclones. ..., .... 2. FORM OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION FIGURE5.-Sea surface temperature departure from normal (" F.) PRESSURE DISTRIBUTION by asdegree squares for July16-, 1955. Smaller figures in upper left hand corner give number of observations The pressure distribution in mid-troposphere during persquare. Above normal temperatures especially near the the month of August was very persistent and is well rep- coast are noteworthy. resented by the 700-mb. monthly mean (fig. 6). Plane- tary waves in the westerlies possessed little amplitude, abnormally hot. (See Chart I-B and also Chart except in Europeand western portions of the Soviet I-B of July issue.) Union. The pronounced zonal nature of the mid- 2. Storminess (Chart X) was less than normal as tropospheric flow is illustrated in figure 6 by the 700-mb. indicated by the positive 700-mb. height anom- height departures from normal, where it is shown that a alies (fig. 6) , thereby inhibiting deep stirring of the narrow filament of positive departures roughly along surface layers. 45O N. latitude extended continuously through the 3. The anomalous components offlow at sea level troughs and ridges from China eastward to Europe. In (Chart XI) suggest more than normal advective polar regions vigorous cyclonic activity prevailed resulting drift of warm water shoreward and weaker than in extensive below normal values of pressure at sea level normal prevailing southwesterly winds at the (Chart XI) and height at 700 mb. (fig. 6). The 5-day surface. 700-mb. departures from normal for periods one week 4. Themean pressure patterns (and absence of apart during August (fig. 7A-D) illustrate the persistent storms) suggest that more sunshine than normal nature of cyclonic activity in the Arctic. affected the area, thus contributing to warming. Two other persistent anomalies which were apparently Solar radiation measurements at Blue Hill Ob- cornerstones of the monthly mean circulation were those servatory, Mass., during July for example, showed over northern Europe and thewest central Pacific (fig. 6). an excess above normal of 13 percent in total The former became established early in summer and rnain- radiation falling on a horizontal surface. tained throughout the season [3 and 81. During the From hygrometric tables it appears that increases in period -7 (fig. 7A) 5-day mean 700-mb. heights mixing ratio of 4.0 g/kg as observed in July and August in averaged above normal west of the British Isles, but by southern New England would be of the general magnitude the following week (fig. 7B) this anomaly had progressed anticipated if the surface waters along the coast averaged to Scandinavia where it remained throughout August. from 5O to loo above normal, as is indicated by figure 5. This prevalence of upper level anticyclones gave Scandi- An inspection of the synoptic charts for several days navia one of its finest tourist seasons in terms of sunny, preceding hurricanes Connie and Diane indicates that air rainless weather. trajectories arriving over the nort,heast portion of the The positive monthly mean anomaly (310 feet) in the country emanated from a general southeasterly direction, west central Pacific occupied an area normally character- thus moving across the Gulf Stream and coastal waters. ized by a trough [9]. The sequence of 5-day mean height Along the trajectories it appears that observed water departures from normal (fig.7) shows that a positive temperatures equalled or exceeded dew point temperatures, anomaly center in the central Pacific retrograded early thus making possible continual addition of moisture to the in the month to a fairly sett.led position. The resulting

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 04:04 AM UTC FIGURE6.-Mean 700-mb. contours and height departure from normal (both in tens of feet) for August 1955. Note continuous zonal band of positive anomalies in middle latitude associated with contracted circumpolar vortex. Subnormal heights in tropical and western Atlantic as in July [3] appear to represent a long period “weakness” favoring formation of early season hurricanes. westward displacement of the Pacific ridge encouraged closed upper level cyclone was observed-a unique case storminess in the Gulf of Alaska, which in turn helped in the historical record of 700-mb. mean maps dating perpetuate a fast, zonal flow across North America. from1933. The most similar 700-mb. pattern for this Northward displacement of the westerlies, subtropical immediate area occurred in August 1933 when a negative ridge, andintertropical convergencezone encouraged anomaly of 110 feet was observed east of Florida and the tropical disturbances to spawn frequentlyand early in westerlies along the Atlantic Seaboard were subnormal. August as described previously. Monthly mean sea level This case is mentioned because 1933 was a year unusually pressures (Chart XI) and 700-mb. heights (fig. 6) averaged rich in tropical disturbancesand included an intense below normal across the tropical Atlanticand south- hurricane which entered the mainland just north of Cape eastern United States with a maximum deficiency over Hatteras. the Sargasso Sea where at 700 mb. (fig. 6) a 10,400-ft. While the mean negative anomalies at sea level and

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FIGURE7.-Five-day mean 700-mb. height departures from normal (in tens of feet) for selected periods in August 1955 one week apart. Below normal heights persisted in the Arctic. Tenacious positive anomalies in the central Pacific and northern Europe were corner- stones of the general circulation. aloft were naturally associated to some extent with the 700 mb. inasmuch as the jet axis was unseasonably far hurricanes, they were in fact manifestations of a longer- north. However, additional wind maxima associated period pattern since they were more or less continuations with a confluent pattern in the eastern Pacific and a of abnormalities established in [8] and main- difluent configuration in the Atlantic wereobserved. tained in July [3]. Average wind speeds in excess of 30 m. p. s. maintained over parts of North America.On normal maps for the ASSOCIATED WIND PATTERNS 13-km. level (about 200 mb.) the westerlies during August The contracted polar vortex was associated with zonal increase uniformly from about 5 m. p. s. in northern wind speedsat 700 mb. about5 m. p. s. greater thannormal Florida to 20 m. p. s. in central New England [lo]. In north of 45' N. latitude butbelow normal south of 45' N. August 1955 easterlies existed at 200-mb. levels from the (fig. 1). The maximum wind beltin August was ap- latitude of Florida to Cape Hatteras, and the westerlies proximately 5' of latitudenorth of normal (fig. 2A). north of Hatteras were about 5 m. p. s. below normal. The continuous bands of excess polar westerlies and sub- Therefore, the hurricanes of this August had a high tropical easterlies at the expense of temperatelatitude probability of encountering prevailing deep easterly westerlies (fig. 2B) resulted in a rather uniform northward currents extending from the surface to the tropopause. shift of the waves in the westerlies. The anomalous easterly flow in middle and low latitudes was responsible CYCLONE TRACKS for the drift of August hurricanes onto the United States Most of the extratropical cyclones of August were mainland, northwest of the more normal oceanic trajectory. observed north of the axis of maximum mid-tropospheric At 200 mb. the wind field (fig. 8) was similar to that at westerlies, although no strongly preferred storm tracks

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 04:04 AM UTC AUQUBT1955 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 169 were apparent(Chart X). In Canadathe paths were rather uniformly distributedfrom the United States border to the Arctic. Several storms passed near the Aleutians and moved into theGulf of Alaska or theBering Strait. East of the Rocky Mountains the cyclone tracks were more numerous but only three weak disturbances formed far enough southto affect the UnitedStates, where most of the storms entering the country were of tropical origin. Here again the freedom from extra- tropical stormsand increased vulnerability to tropical storms is to beassociated with the northward displacement of zonal wind belts. 3. PREVAILING WEATHER OVER THE UNITED STATES As indicated previously showers and tropical storms produced most of August’s rainfall (Charts I1 and 111). FIGURE%-Mean 200-mb. contours (in hundreds of feet) and iso- With a mean 700-mb. anticyclone located over western tachs (dashed, in metersper second) for August 1955. Solid Texas and New Mexico moist unstable air masses were arrows indicate the axes of mean jet streams, which were north advected into the FarSouthwest producing heavy rainfall of normal in eastern North America and the Atlantic. and floods in Arizona and lesser amounts of precipitation north-northeastward to the Canadian Border in a manner associated withDiane varied from 6 inches in North described by Reed [ll]. The rather anomalous westward Carolina, 11 in Virginia, 10 in Pennsylvania, more than extension of “Arizonarains’’ intosouthern California, to 20 in southern New England. often called “Sonora rains,” was associated with easterly winds aloft, as noted by Blake [12]. Tropical storm In the Far West dry weather prevailed since the west Brenda which entered Louisiana (for earlier coast trough was weak and local westerlies were sub- history see [3]) combined with other easterly perturbations normal thereby minimizing orographic effects. The to produce heavy rains totalingup to 10 inches along most Central Plains were also dry; less than half the normal of the Gulf Coast. precipitation fell in a north-south band. Associated with Abundant rainfall fell over large areas of the Northeast this deficiency was the absence of cyclones and deep and in many States (e.g., Connecticut, Massachusetts, moist air masses, both resulting from a northward dis- New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island) placed and zonally oriented subtropical ridge of high torrential downpours led to disastrous floods. In the pressures aloft. Rainfall was also deficient underneath an GreatLakes area, New York, and New England cold upper level anticyclone in the Southeast where northerly fronts encountering tropical air masses helped induce components of flow prevailed (fig. 6). strong convective activity.For example,flash floods The intense heat wave of July across the northern half were reported in northern Vermont and August of the country east of the Rocky Mountains, continued 13 in the Upper Valley of New Hampshire. However, throughout August (ChartI). Many stations reported the heaviest amounts of precipitation occurred when this temperatures comparable to those of August 1947, another humid air entered the moisture-wringing circulations of hot month, and at some stations new records were made. hurricanes Connie andDiane. Attended by hurricane- For example, Cleveland, Ohio, experienced the second hot- force winds, Connie came inland in North Carolina on test month on record which followed the hottest month (Chart X) and in so doing released as much as ever recorded. The mean monthly temperature at East 5 to 6 inches of rain along and east of its meandering . Lansing, Mich., of 75.4’ F. exceeded the old record Heavy rainsin New York and New England fell onAugust made in 1947. Sioux City, Iowa, reported torrid tem- 12 and 13 due to Connie’s influence, although the storm peratures,bright sunshine, hot winds, and low humid- center was still several hundred miles to the south. ities which, combined withlight precipitation, resulted These rains were augmented by lifting of moist air over a in heavy crop damage. These meteorologicalconditions cold front whichpassed through New England. A were characteristic of much of the Plains States where somewhat similar situation occurred in 1954 in Ontario a crop moisture deficit [14] of 4 inches was reported when hurricane Hazel produced flood conditions [13]. throughout August. Hurricane Diane with 70- to 100-m. p. h. winds followed In the RockyMountains and along the Gulf Coast in the wake of Connie and struck the coast near Wilming- below normal temperatures wereless extensive than in ton,N. C. (Chart X). A detailed description of the July, but they still prevailed in parts of the rainy South- hurricane trajectoriesis presented by Chapman and§loan west and the West Coast. August was the seventh con- elsewhere in this issue. Coarse figures of rainfall amounts secutive month of subnormal temperatures in the Pacific

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 04:04 AM UTC 170 REVIEW WEATHER MONTHLY AUGUST1955 Northwest. It is somewhat unusual that cool summer UNESCO Symposium on Typhoons, 9-12 November temperatures here were associated withsunny and dry 1954, Tokyo, 1955, pp. 213-219. weather. In fact, August was the sunniestmonth ever 7. G. Slocum, “The Normal Temperature Distribution of observed in Spokane, Wash., and Tatoosh Island, Wash., the Surface Water of the Western North Atlantic received the lowest amount of precipitation since 1916. Ocean,” Monthly WeatherReview, vol.66, No. 2, February 1938, pp. 3943. REFERENCES 8. H. F. Hawkins, “TheWeather and Circulation of June 1955-Illustrating a Circumpolar Blocking 1. J. Namias, “Secular Fluctuations in Vulnerability to Wave,)’ Monthly WeatherReview, vol.83, No. 6, Tropical Cyclones In and Off New England,” June 1955, pp. 125-131. Monthly Weather Review, vol. 81, No. 8, August 1955, 9. U. Weather Bureau, “Normal WeatherCharts for the pp. 155-162. S. Northern Hemisphere,’) U. Weather Bureau, 2. T. Bergeron, “Reviews of Modern Meteorology-12. S. Technical Paper, No. 21, Washington, 1952, The Problem of TropicalHurricanes,” Quarterly D. C., Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 80, 74 PP- 10. U. S. Weather Bureau, NorthernHemisphere Isograms No. 344, , pp. 131-164. of Normal Wind Speed and Stream Lines, Upper 3. J. F. Andrews, “The Weather and Circulation of July Level. (Unpublished, based on 1955-A Prolonged Heat Wave Effected by a Sharp Normal Weather Maps, Northern Hemisphere, Upper Levels, 1944.) Reversal in Circulation,” Monthly WeatherReview, 11. T. R. Reed, “The North American High-Level Anti- VO~.83, NO. 7, , pp. 147-153. cyclone,” Monthlg Weather Review, vol. 61, No. 11, 4. C. L. Ray, “Relation of Tropical Cyclone Frequency to November 1933, pp. 321-325. Summer Pressures and Ocean Surface-Water Tem- 12. D. Blake, “Sonora Storms,” Monthly Weather Review, peratures,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 63, No. 1, vol. 51, No. 11, November 1923, pp. 585-588. January 1935, pp. 10-12. 13. J. L. Knox, “TheStorm ‘Hazel’,” Bulletin of the 5. J. Namias, “Further Aspects of Month-to-Month American Meteorological Society, vol.36, No. 6, Persistence in the Mid-Troposphere,” Bulletin of the June 1955, pp. 239-246. American Meteorological Society, vol.35, No. 3, 14. D. E. McCloud and L. D. Bark, “A Trial Crop , pp. 112-117. Moisture Computation,’’ Weekly Weather and Crop 6. J. Namias, “Long Range Factors Affecting the Genesis Bulletin,National Summary, vol. XLII, No. 32, and Paths of Tropical Cyclones,” Proceedings of the , 1955, pp. 6-8.

Water Supply Forecasts for the Western United States Published monthly from January to May, inclusive. Contains text, map, and tabulations of water-year and seasonal runoff forecasts for the eleven Western States, by Weather Bureau, Soil Conservation Service, and the State of California. For copies of the 1956 forecasts apply to River Forecast Center, Weather Bureau Office, 712 Federal Office Building, Kansas City 6, Missouri.

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j Chart I. A. Average Temperature ', t Surface, August 1955. 1

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Chart 111. A. Departure of Precipitation from Normal (Inches), August 1955. .

B. Pixcentage crf Normal Precipitation, August 1955.

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of normal amount of sky cover are made for stations having at least 10 years of record.

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B. Percentage of Normal Sunshine, Auclust 1955.

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