Power Without Inºuence Power Without Jeremy Pressman Inºuence the Bush Administration’S Foreign Policy Failure in the Middle East
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Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program
Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program But Oil and Gas Still Matter CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A Report of the CSIS Energy and National Security Program 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 author Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Robert E. Ebel E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org March 2010 ISBN 978-0-89206-600-1 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Ë|xHSKITCy066001zv*:+:!:+:! CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Geopolitics of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Program But Oil and Gas Still Matter A Report of the CSIS Energy and National Security Program author Robert E. Ebel March 2010 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decision- makers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. -
2005 ANNUAL REPORT CONTENTS 6 Economic 10 Studies Global Economy and Development 27 Katrina’S Lessons in Recovery
QUALITY IMPACT AND INDEPENDENCE ANNUAL REPORT THE 2005 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 www.brookings.edu BROOKINGSINSTITUTION 2005 ANNUAL REPORT CONTENTS 6 Economic 10 Studies Global Economy and Development 27 Katrina’s Lessons in Recovery 39 Brookings Institution Press 14 40 Governance Center for Executive Education Studies 2 About Brookings 4 Chairman’s Message 5 President’s Message 31 Brookings Council 18 36 Honor Roll of Contributors Foreign 42 Financial Summary Policy Studies 44 Trustees 24 Metropolitan Policy Editor: Melissa Skolfield, Vice President for Communications Copyright ©2005 The Brookings Institution Writers: Katie Busch, Shawn Dhar, Anjetta McQueen, Ron Nessen 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW 28 Design and Print Production: The Magazine Group, Inc. Washington, DC 20036 Jeffrey Kibler, Virginia Reardon, Brenda Waugh Telephone: 202-797-6000 Support for Production Coordinator: Adrianna Pita Fax: 202-797-6004 Printing: Jarboe Printing www.brookings.edu Cover Photographs: (front cover) William Bradstreet/Folio, Inc., Library of Congress Card Number: 84-641502 Brookings (inside covers) Catherine Karnow/Folio, Inc. Broadcast reporters zoom in for a forum on a new compact for Iraq THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION featuring U.S. Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware. he Brookings Institution is a pri- vate nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and innovative policy solutions. Celebrating its 90th anniversary in 2006, Brookings analyzes current and emerging issues and produces new ideas that matter—for the nation and the world. ■ For policymakers and the media, Brookings scholars provide the highest-quality research, policy recommendations, and analysis on the full range of public policy issues. ■ Research at the Brookings Institution is conducted to inform the public debate, not advance a political agenda. -
Groupthink, the News Media, and the Iraq War
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, Summer 2008, Vol. 10, Issue 4. COHERENCE IN CRISIS: GROUPTHINK, THE NEWS MEDIA, AND THE IRAQ WAR Dan Fitzsimmons, Ph.D Student, Department of Political Science, University of Calgary From the outset of the American military intervention in Vietnam in 1964, the United States news media has had the capacity to report military engagements from around the world in real time.1 Instantaneous and pervasive news coverage has helped to inform the American public and politicians of ongoing military operations, which has led to obvious questions about the possible influence of news on military strategy.2 This assumption has only gained popularity following studies of news media influence in Vietnam, which has prompted further investigation of the possible links between US military strategy and the media.3 The proponents of this termed “CNN effect,” which hypothesizes a causal link between media reporting and politico-military decisions, include Steven Livingston of George Washington University who proposes that the viewing of images on television “undeniably influences the evolution of events.”4 However, proponents of the CNN effect have frequently failed to take into account the important role of strategic decision-making in setting the course of 1 Margaret H. Belknap, The CNN Effect: Strategic Enabler or Operational Risk? (Carlisle Barracks, PA: US Army War College, 2001), p. 1. 2 Ingrid A. Lehmann, "Exploring the Transatlantic Media Divide over Iraq: How and Why U.S. And German Media Differed in Reporting on U.N. Weapons Inspections in Iraq: 2002-2003," The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics 10, no. -
Libya? Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A
Who “Won” Libya? Who “Won” Libya? Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Whytock Implications for Theory and Policy Having promoted glo- bal radicalism and regional rejectionism, engaged in terrorism, and pursued weapons of mass destruction (WMD) for years, Libya has shifted away from its “rogue state” policies, most especially by settling the Pan Am 103 Lockerbie terrorism case and by abandoning its programs for the development of nu- clear, chemical, and biological weapons.1 The key policy changes started in 1999, when Libya surrendered two Lockerbie suspects for trial in The Hague, and culminated in 2003 with the settlement of the Lockerbie case that August and particularly Libya’s December 19 announcement that it had agreed to abandon its WMD programs and allow international inspections. The debate over who deserves credit for these important changes in Libyan policy is a lively one politically and a challenging one analytically.2 Among the questions that analysts have sought to answer are: To what extent was Libyan leader Muammar Qaddaª intimidated by the George W. Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq and the broader Bush doctrine of preemptive force? How important was diplomacy, especially the secret talks between Libya and the United States that started late in Bill Clinton’s administration and contin- ued into the Bush administration, with the British playing a signiªcant role? What other factors, including Libya’s internal politics and economy, came into play? And what are the lessons for dealing with other terrorism-supporting, WMD-seeking, and otherwise aggressive states? Positions in this debate have been sharply staked out. -
Anatomy of a National Security Fiasco: the George W. Bush Administration, Iraq, and Groupthink Phillip G
Anatomy of a National Security Fiasco: The George W. Bush Administration, Iraq, and Groupthink Phillip G. Henderson The Catholic University of America These were people who were selectively picking and then emphasizing pieces of intelligence, I believe, in order to support their larger purpose, which was to bring in a way that they thought possible, to bring democracy to Iraq, and through Iraq to transform the Middle East. I thought that was far-fetched. I didn’t think it was going to happen, but that was their real purpose. They thought that this was going to be a transforming event in history. My frustration is that there was never a national security decision- making process in the administration where people such as me really had a chance to take that on. Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning at the State Department 2001-2003, Interview with Chris Matthews on “Hardball,” May 6, 2009 In February 2002, one year before the U.S. military intervention in Iraq began, neoconservative writer Ken Adelman predicted that demolishing Saddam Hussein’s regime and liberating Iraq would be a “cakewalk.”1 At a town hall meeting at the Ameri- PHILLIP G. HENDERSON is Associate Professor of Politics at The Catholic University of America. Work on this article was supported by a research grant from the Center for the Study of Statesmanship. 1 Ken Adelman, “Cakewalk in Iraq,” The Washington Post, 13 February 2002, A27. 46 • Volume XXXI, Nos. 1 and 2, 2018 Phillip G. Henderson can air base in Aviano, Italy, on February 7, 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld added that, if force were to be used in Iraq, the war “could last six days, six weeks. -
'At the Water's Edge: American Politics and the Vietnam War'
H-1960s Eichsteadt on Small, 'At The Water's Edge: American Politics and the Vietnam War' Review published on Thursday, February 1, 2007 Melvin Small. At The Water's Edge: American Politics and the Vietnam War. Chicago: Ivan R. Dee Publisher, 2005. xi + 241 pp. $14.95 (paper), ISBN 978-1-56663-647-6; $26.00 (cloth), ISBN 978-1-56663-593-6. Reviewed by James Eichsteadt (Department of History, Syracuse University) Published on H-1960s (February, 2007) Even though politics and partisanship supposedly stop "at the water's edge," this was not the case during the Vietnam War. Domestic debates and political pressure, argues historian Melvin Small, not only occurred in abundance during the war, they influenced American policymakers. Small, the nation's pre-eminent scholar on the United States during the Vietnam War era,[1] provides readers with a brisk and well-told account of the interconnectedness between events in Southeast Asia and the United States. While most of the study deals with the effect of the war on domestic politics, particularly those of the presidential variety, there are several examples which show the impact political pressure had on foreign-policy decisions. Small points out that since it would be "unseemly" for American leaders to admit they considered domestic factors when formulating plans related to national security, direct evidence of such deliberations in archival documents or in memoirs is rare. But by reading "between the lines," as Small puts it, he shows how concerns over poll numbers and upcoming elections frequently influenced decisions (p. ix). Small is sensitive to not portray every foreign-policy decision as being solely dictated by domestic electoral events, and he avoids being unduly cynical towards politicians concerned with political self-preservation. -
State of Denial
State of Denial Jacket "INSURGENTS AND TERRORISTS RETAIN THE RESOURCES AND CAPABILITIES TO SUSTAIN AND EVEN INCREASE CURRENT LEVEL OF VIOLENCE THROUGH THE NEXT YEAR." This was the secret Pentagon assessment sent to the White House in May 2006. The forecast of a more violent 2007 in Iraq contradicted the repeated optimistic statements of President Bush, including one, two days earlier, when he said we were at a "turning point" that history would mark as the time "the forces of terror began their long retreat." State of Denial examines how the Bush administration avoided telling the truth about Iraq to the public, to Congress, and often to themselves. Two days after the May report, the Pentagon told Congress, in a report required by law, that the "appeal and motivation for continued violent action will begin to wane in early 2007." In this detailed inside story of a war-torn White House, Bob Woodward reveals how White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, with the indirect support of other high officials, tried for 18 months to get Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld replaced. The president and Vice President Cheney refused. At the beginning of Bush's second term, Stephen Hadley, who replaced Condoleezza Rice as national security adviser, gave the administration a "D minus" on implementing its policies. A SECRET report to the new Secretary of State Rice from her counselor stated that, nearly two years after the invasion, Iraq was a "failed state." State of Denial reveals that at the urging of Vice President Cheney and Rumsfeld, the most frequent outside visitor and Iraq adviser to President Bush is former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who, haunted still by the loss in Vietnam, emerges as a hidden and potent voice. -
European Media Representations of US Foreign Policy Making
Loughborough University Institutional Repository Framing the neocons : European media representations of US foreign policy making This item was submitted to Loughborough University's Institutional Repository by the/an author. Additional Information: • A Doctoral Thesis. Submitted in partial fullment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy of Loughborough University. Metadata Record: https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/12167 Publisher: c George Tzogopoulos Please cite the published version. This item was submitted to Loughborough University as a PhD thesis by the author and is made available in the Institutional Repository (https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/) under the following Creative Commons Licence conditions. For the full text of this licence, please go to: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ ~~~-~-------~-,---~---",--,------.--------.--.--.--- ....-- ... ~ ....., ~l r. ., ~ ~ ~ f ;~:~: ''-' "'.' ,. --,.~'.J ,] -: ~.. 1 .: .. : ;~ ~ ~ :.; ~"..(~,;;~:;:-;, ~;~ -~.- ~. ,:.:--' ~.-:r:'- -. .....:t·.. _;,;::..... _-.. ~',· .... '~~:J;·-.-'t'.u=-"- :'. ,-". -',";:V." -"" .:_'~ ,l.:.:.. _~.~~...... '~~.-•.:..J;I! ...........~ l J.~,VV j r!~~i\10. - k - - ~ ,I t ~ ~ ~."7'1.~_~~_\W.. .._.. i ....~ r __ ~.."'"-"_~I IDat3 I !':r-,.:; ,'v·_- ••. "-'.-.:..:~.~..v..... - •.".,,'l._:.: __~-,:.-:.: ... -;-' .,._y~·.~.'"-r.:', ..-._~·>;....:.T .• "-,-~;:::,~;.:: ... ~..:.;.:~...I.~~Cl<C-~~ 'Framing the Neocons: European Media Representations of US Foreign Policy-Making' by George Tzogopoulos A Doctoral Thesis Submitted in partial -
PRAVIN AGARWAL Is Senior Fellow at the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in New Delhi, India
SPEAKER AND DISCUSSANT BIOGRAPHIES PRAVIN AGARWAL is Senior Fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in New Delhi, India. Mr. Agarwal has over 35 years experience with Indian Oil Corporation Ltd., India’s largest commercial enterprise. He served first as Director of Marketing and later as Director of Human Resources on the Board of Directors during November 01, 2001 to July 31, 2005. Mr. Agarwal has multi-functional experience in Facilities Planning, Corporate Planning, Sales, Operations, Finance, Marketing and Human Resources Management. Mr. Agarwal also has extensive experience working with the Government of India, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. He spent 12 years at Oil Coordination Committee, a Nodal Government Agency for Oil Sector, in various capacities and finally as its executive head. Mr. Agarwal has an excellent techno-managerial background and is a gold medalist mechanical engineer from IIT, Roorkee and gold medal recipient for topping his MBA program at the International Management Institute, New Delhi, India STEPHEN J. BLANK has served as the Strategic Studies Institute's expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet world since 1989. Prior to that he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base, and taught at the University of Texas, San Antonio, and at the University of California, Riverside. Dr. Blank is the editor of Imperial Decline: Russia's Changing Position in Asia , coeditor of Soviet Military and the Future , and author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin's Commissariat of Nationalities, 1917-1924 . He has also written many articles and conference papers on Russian, Commonwealth of Independent States, and Eastern European security issues. -
Coming Face to Face with Bloody Reality: Liberal Common Sense and the Ideological Failure of the Bush Doctrine in Iraq
Original Article Coming face to face with bloody reality: Liberal common sense and the ideological failure of the Bush doctrine in Iraq Toby Dodge Department of Politics, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Abstract A conventional technocratic wisdom has begun to form that blames the failure of the US led invasion of Iraq on the small number of American troops deployed and the ideological divisions at the centre of the Bush administration itself. This paper argues that both these accounts are at best simply descriptive. A much more sustained explanation has to be based on a close examination of the ideological assumptions that shaped the drafting of policies and planning for the aftermath of the war. The point of departure for such an analysis is that all agency, whether individual or collective, is socially mediated. The paper deploys Antonio Gramsci’s notion of ‘Common Sense’ to examine the Bush administration’s policy towards Iraq. It argues that the Common Sense at work in the White House, Defence Department and Green Zone was primarily responsible for America’s failure. It examines the relationship between the ‘higher philosophies’ of both Neoconservatism and Neo-Liberalism and Common Sense. It concludes that although Neoconservatism was influential in justifying the invasion itself, it was Neo-Liberalism that shaped the policy agenda for the aftermath of war. It takes as its example the pre-war planning for Iraq, then the disbanding of the Iraqi army and the de-Ba’athification of the Iraqi state. -
ISRAEL and PALESTINE
ISRAEL and PALESTINE Two States for Two Peoples If Not Now, When? BOSTON STUDY GROUP ON MIDDLE EAST PEACE Alan Berger Harvey Cox Herbert C. Kelman Lenore G. Martin Everett Mendelsohn Augustus Richard Norton Henry Steiner Stephen M. Walt ISRAEL AND PALESTINE Two States for Two Peoples If Not Now, When? by the Boston Study Group on Middle East Peace Contents Preface . ii Brief Biographical Sketches . .iii Policy Statement of Boston Study Group on Middle East Peace . 1 Palestinian Refugees Herbert C. Kelman and Lenore G. Martin . .15 West Bank Settlements and Borders Henry Steiner . 23 Jerusalem Harvey Cox . 38 The Challenge of Mutual Security Stephen M. Walt . 45 The Right Time, As Ever Alan Berger . 51 U .S . Presidents and the Arab-Israeli Conflict Augustus Richard Norton . .57 Timeline and Glossary of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict & Peacemaking Everett Mendelsohn . .75 PREFACE The Boston Study Group on Middle East Peace started its regular meetings in September 2008. Its members all have a strong interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some have been intensely engaged with this subject for decades. Others have closely followed the conflict within the context of their professional work in conflict resolution, international law and international relations, religion and U.S. foreign policy. The biographical sketches note the principal career work of each author that is relevant to this report. The group’s principal contribution is the jointly written policy statement entitledIsrael and Palestine—Two States for Two People: If Not Now, When? The statement stands as a collegial, collective enterprise that represents a consensus view of the group. -
THE MIDDLE EAST QUARTET: a Post-Mortem
BROOKINGS 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20036-2103 www.brookings.edu ANALYSIS PAPER Number 25, February 2012 THE MIDDLE EAST QUARTET: A Post-Mortem Khaled Elgindy ANALYSIS PAPER Number 25, February 2012 THE MIDDLE EAST QUARTET: A Post-Mortem Khaled Elgindy The Brookings Institution is a private non-profit organization. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not reflect the views of the Institution, its management, or its other scholars. Brookings recognizes that the value it provides to any supporter is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence and impact. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment and the analysis and recommendations are not determined by any donation. Copyright © 2012 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 www.brookings.edu Table of Contents Executive Summary..........................................................iv Acknowledgements ......................................................... x The Author................................................................xi Introduction .............................................................. 1 Background and Description ................................................. 3 The Quartet’s Track Record.................................................. 9 Why the Quartet Does Not