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Inside This Issue Volume 49 • Number 3 • March 1997

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Inside This Issue Volume 49 • Number 3 • March 1997 Inside this Issue Volume 49 • Number 3 • March 1997 ARTICLES REGULAR FEATURES The Future of Hong Kong Editorial 21 Can Hong Kong Remain Free?—Scenarios for 1997 Welcome aboard the new look IPA Review! Democracy and traditional political liberty might not be retained; but outright mainland dictatorship is also unlikely.A middle way 2 Savings and Budget Honesty based on pragmatic considerations, may well be the best hope The Commonwealths increasing dependence upon income for Hong Kong after the handover David Armstrong taxes—including the taxation on private savings—gives a misleading picture of the Commonwealths Budget performance 25 The Economic Implications of the Take-over Geoff CarmodylAccess Economics Natural assets aside, Hong Kongs economic success has depended upon its open markets and the security of property 3 What does it Mean to be Indigenous—and does it and contract under the rule of law. If these are seriously Matter? threatened, then the outlook is doubtful Alan Oxley It might seem simple and obvious, but drawing the line between indigenous and non-indigenous peoples is not always straightfor- 28 China—How Stable is the Monolith? ward_Whats more, applying the distinctions creates problems of Internal regional tensions, the presence of Taiwan and the its own Kenneth Maddock spillover effects of taking back Hong Kong may yet prove a headache for Beijing Michael OConnor 5 Howards Way A year since the Federal election, its time for an assessment of John Howards Coalition government John Hyde 29 Renovating Civil Society Between the State and its citizens lies a tier of intermediate 7 New Zealands Reforms: The Next Stage institutions—mostly small-scale and voluntary in nature. At Michael James, the Editor of Agenda, interviews Sir Roger least thats the theory. Practice suggests otherwise, and calls for Douglas about the prospects for further reform and what an urgent re-examination Patrick Morgan Australia might learn from the experience 30 IPA Indicators 9 C.R. (Bert) Kelly, I9I2-1997 Mining investment, land claims and mining, tax rates on An appreciation of the work and influence of the original Modest investment, Howards battlers, and executive salaries. Member who did so much to expose the costs of Australias long-standing protection policies Torry Rutherford 32 The `R Files Reforms to Victorias electricity generation and distribution 10 The Workplace Relations Act—plus ca change... industries have put the pressure on the other States to open It was supposed to be revolutionary, but then it met the Senate. up their markets Alan Moran Whats left of the Coalitions industrial relations reforms? Robert Skeffington 34 The Pyrrhonist It might seem like heresy, but someone has got to say it—most 11 Black and White appeals to the notion ofsustainable development are either The recentATSIC elections raise the question once again--is empty, oxymoronic or hypocritical Brian Tucker there really any justification for ATSICs continued existence? Ron Brunton 36 Free_Enterprise.com An introduction to the Internet—especially for the novice— with a decided leaning toWebsites with a political, legal or economic flavour Stephen Dawson The IPAs Immigration Debate 38 Myths About the Minimum Wage Serious economic analysis suggests that there are other means 13 The Debate Itself for dealing with the problems of unemployment and low Jim Byth introduces an edited version of a wide-ranging debate held incomes Philip Lewis by the IPA late last year. Of the seven participants, three, whose positions are well separated on the argumentative spectrum. are BOOK REVIEWS featured here: Bob Birrell,TheoTheophanous and Phil Ruthven. 19 Immigration and Unemployment: The Economic 39 • Hindmarsh Heresies • Declining Sperm Counts Ron Brunton reviews Chris Kennys Womens Business and Evidence wonders why telling the truth gets such a bad press: Roger All the empirical evidence points to one conclusion: there is no Bate reviews the latest piece of environmental alarmism, Our causal link between the two John Freebairn Stolen Future, and concludes that it is scientifically ill-founded. 000000 Editor: Tony Rutherford. Publisher Executive Director: Mike Nahan. Production Manager: Chris Ulyatt. Editorial and Production Office: 2nd Floor, 46 Kings Park Road, West Penh WA 6005. Phone: (09) 321 1420. Fax: (09) 321 1479. Email: [email protected] Designed by: Colin Norris, Kingdom Artroom. Printed by: Print Hotline, 47 Milligan Street, Perth, WA 6000. Published by: The Institute of Public Affairs Ltd (Incorporated in the ACT) ACN 008 627 727. 128-136 Jolimont Road, Jolimont, V1C 3002. Phone: (03) 9654 7499. Fax: (03) 9650 7627. Email: [email protected] Cover Photograph: Reproduced with the kind permission of the Hong Kong Tourist Association Unsolicited manuscripts welcomed. However, potential contributors are advised to discuss proposals for articles with the Editor. Views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IPA. Reproduction: The IPA welcomes reproduction of material from the Review, but for copyright reasons the Editors permission must first be sought. From the Editor TONY RUTHERFORD S the friends of the IPA will the near-consensus that the other limits know, the previous Review are less compelling than the usual content was the last completed of the debate would have us believe. under the editorship of Ken In our next issue, we shall, among Baker. This issue is the first under the other topics, be looking at those limits new editorship—although it is in the from another, oblique perspective: from nature of these things that the contents across the Tasman. Expanding upon the are not all newly-gathered. themes alluded to by Sir Roger Douglas This is also the first with our new in this issue, we will be continuing to look: leaner, more direct, and simpler in examine the progress of New Zealands layout. Part of the reason for this is that reforms and, by implication, the effects of we will over the next few years be more our own failure to emulate them. closely integrating our hard copy In other lead articles, John Hyde, Mike publications with electronic forms of Nahan and Robert Skeffington look at the publishing. record of the first year of the Howard The change in editorship and, more interests mute whatever official government from their different particularly, the change in layout have expression our government might give to perspectives. And from any perspective, combined to delay the appearance of this our natural feelings of deep concern over that record is not good, nor is there number, and for this we apologise to our the plight of the citizens of a country who much in it to encourage the expectation readers. We fully expect to be able to will very shortly have a bizarre and of better things to come.Those few true catch up with and resume our regular ramshackle tyranny replacing the believers who quietly cheered on the schedule over the rest of the year. essentially benign and minimalist rule of then Opposition when they supported The magazine is a mixture of old and their former colonial masters. It is one of the good reforms of the Hawke and new. The regular columns still appear, and those situations where we instinctively Keating governments, must wonder what to these we have added a new one: feel that diplomatic niceties go contrary happened to the apostles of genuine Stephen Dawsons free Enterprise.com, an to both heart and mind. labour market reform (to name only one introduction to the Internet and the But as our contributors make clear, important policy area), apostles like Reith World Wide Web. While there is still a Hong Kong at least has the advantage that and John Howard himself. good deal of both hype and bogus the eyes of the world will be upon it. Again, in Opposition, the Liberals expertise attached to them, there is no More than that, interested observers now provided much-needed backing for the doubt that rapid access to the global know with the benefit of observing the progressive tariff-reduction programme public policy debate is one of their real painful transition of Eastern Europe from put in place by Labor. As our tribute to strengths. With an intelligent guide, we communism to democracy—just which the original Modest Member, Bert Kelly, hope to make that access easier. elements of Hong Kongs imperfect sadly reminds us, that adherence to Readers will also notice that we are democracy are the important ones, the principle now seems to be evaporating. introducing a separate central section, ones worth defending. Whatever the decision eventually made which will contain the articles comprising One of Hong Kongs strengths, of by the government on the car industry-- our focus issues. course, is that its wealth was largely the and it might well be the right decision— In this edition, we focus on two creation of a society of migrants who it will represent another opportunity lost issues: we look at the likely fate of Hong were able to unleash their to demonstrate leadership in reform. Kong after its return to Chinese entrepreneurial skills within a remarkably And serious reform is still needed if we dominion later this year; and we discuss open and free economy. This makes a are to remove the limits to growth. the realistic options available to Australia point not usually considered in the in the area of immigration policy. Australian immigration debate: our The future of Hong Kong under capacity to absorb new migrants—not Chinese rule is of obvious interest to least entrepreneurial entrants from Hong Australians. We have a fairly narrow Kong, and other ethnic Chinese—is commercial interest in the continuing limited most by the limits we impose on prosperity of the city; and that coincides the freedom and openness of our very neatly with the diplomatic interest in economy.
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