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Wind Modeling in Resource Adequacy Assessments

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Wind Modeling in Resource Adequacy Assessments Wind Modeling in Resource Adequacy Assessments EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Relatively little wind generation is actually in operation on the NPCC system this year (2008). NPCC members and its neighboring Region have different ways of accounting for this generation in their resource adequacy assessments. From a historical perspective, there is relatively little operational experience regarding NPCC specific wind generation in terms of capacity forecasting and utilization factor. The CP-8 Working Group has concluded that it is not possible to dictate a ‘one size fits all’ intermittent (wind) resource adequacy model due to the diversity of the types and configurations (wind farms/individual turbines), locations (specific regional wind speed characteristics) and varying system conditions (summer/winter peaking) across NPCC and its neighboring Region. The NPCC CP-8 Working Group has reviewed the detailed studies addressing modeling intermittent (wind) resources through the various stakeholder processes currently underway, and recommends modeling these intermittent (wind) resources in NPCC resource adequacy assessments consistent with the modeling and assumptions determined by those respective studies. The CP-8 Working Group recommends unifying NPCC reporting and modeling methods for intermittent (wind) resources after reviewing the operational experience gained from the actual operation of the projects anticipated to be in-service in the next few years. The CP-8 Working Group also recommends the need to study the intermittent nature of resources other than wind (for example, resulting from the so-called ‘response fatigue’ 1 that may be associated with the anticipated amounts of future demand response programs, or generation restrictions resulting from existing/future environmental regulations imposed in response to air quality concerns on high electric demand days 2 ) in order to properly assess their resource adequacy impacts. This White Paper summarizes of the intermittent (wind) resource adequacy models and assumptions used by NPCC Areas and its neighboring Region for resource adequacy assessments. This summary provides the basis for the CP-8 Working Group’s intermittent (wind) resource adequacy Area and neighboring Region modeling guidelines for NPCC resource adequacy assessments. 1 If called upon too frequently, customers may be unwilling or unable to continue load curtailments. See: http://www.energetics.com/electricity_forum_2007/pdfs/61498.pdf 2 These are the days during the ozone season (May 1 – Sept 30) which require typically require the most electricity to be generated, but they are also the days most likely to result in the greatest ozone formation due to the ambient conditions. NPCC 1 Approval by the RCC – November 19, 2008 Wind Modeling in Resource Adequacy Assessments SUMMARY Area Wind Modeling Québec No wind resources were modeled in Québec in the 2008 NPCC Summer Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment. 3 All of the wind capacity in Québec is generated by Independent Power Producers. The capacity in-service for the summer of 2008 was 422 MW. This is entirely situated in the Matapédia region of the system ─ around the Gaspésie peninsula near the Gulf of St-Lawrence. A new wind farm, Carleton, is expected to be in service in December 2008. This wind farm will have a 110 MW installed capacity, bringing the total installed wind power capacity in Québec to approximately 532 MW. According to actual planning, wind power nameplate capacity may rise up to 4,000 MW by the year 2015. Studies regarding capacity value are still in progress. In a first step, a complete dataset of 36 years of hourly wind power generation has been estimated, using backcasting techniques. This data is used for capacity value estimation. Preliminary results were found to be very sensitive to small changes in the wind power generation during a limited number of meteorological events, identified as generating 95% of loss of load probabilities. The wind power generation during these events will be subject to further analysis. Results are expected by next summer. In the meantime, Hydro-Québec derates completely wind power for resource adequacy purposes. Maritimes The wind resources located in Prince Edward Island (PEI) and Northern Maine Independent System Administrator (NMISA) were modeled in the 2008 NPCC Summer Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment as a fixed MW value available for all hours. The PEI wind has a rating of 21 MW during the winter, and 14 MW during the summer. The NMISA wind is rated 16 MW winter, 8 MW summer. For Nova Scotia, the wind was modeled with an hourly profile developed from a typical daily pattern of output for each month. The maximum capacities modeled range from 11 MW in June to 29.2 MW in September through December. 3 See: http://www.npcc.org/documents/reports/Seasonal.aspx NPCC 2 Approval by the RCC – November 19, 2008 Wind Modeling in Resource Adequacy Assessments Wind project capacity in the Maritimes Area was derated for the summer and winter periods based upon results from the Sept. 21, 2005 New Brunswick System Operator (NBSO) report “Maritimes Wind Integration Study”. 4 This 2005 study showed that the effective capacity from wind projects, and their contribution to Loss of Load Expectation was equal to or better than their seasonal capacity factors. Coincidence of high winter wind generation with the peak winter loads results in the Maritimes Area receiving a higher capacity benefit from wind projects versus a summer peaking area. The effective wind capacity calculation also assumes a good geographic dispersion of the wind projects in order to mitigate the occurrences of having zero wind production. For 2008/09, the derated capacity values are approximately 20% for the summer and 40% for the winter. New England No wind resources were modeled in New England for the 2008 NPCC Summer Multi- Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment. The total nameplate capability of wind generators in New England is 11.2 MW, while the amount claimed for capability is 4.5 MW (40 % of nameplate). Three additional wind facilities with a total nameplate rating of 114 MW are expected to come on line by the end of 2008. The summer/winter qualified capacity of a new wind resource is the summer/winter qualified capacity claimed by the project sponsor. The project sponsor also needs to include in the qualification package the measured and recorded site-specific summer and winter data relevant to the expected performance of the wind resources (including wind speed data). The New England Independent System Operator (ISO-NE) confirms the summer and winter qualified capacity that the project sponsor claims for the wind resource based on this information. Regarding the future, ISO-NE’s 2008 Regional System Plan references studies that show New England has the potential for developing thousands of megawatts of wind resources. 5 The studies consider improving the transmission system to reliably and economically integrate the larger wind resources, the need of maintaining the frequency of the network at 60 hertz (Hz), regulating electric power interchange schedules with neighboring regions, providing back-up supplies when the wind does not blow, and ramping other supplies to account for changes in the wind resource outputs. These and other operational issues may be addressed through more accurate forecasts of the amount of electric energy wind resources could produce and revised market rules to account for many of the 4 See: http://www.nbso.ca/Public/_private/2005%20Maritime%20Wind%20Integration%20Study%20_Final_.pdf 5 See: http://www.iso-ne.com/trans/rsp/2008/rsp08_final_101608_public_version.pdf NPCC 3 Approval by the RCC – November 19, 2008 Wind Modeling in Resource Adequacy Assessments physical issues introduced by the variable nature of wind resources. ISO-NE is working with stakeholders and industry experts to address these and other issues concerning the successful integration of wind resources. New York In New York, five separate wind sites were modeled in the 2008 NPCC Summer Multi- Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment, each with its own hourly profile for all of the hours in the year developed from historical wind data. The sum of the maximum ratings each month is approximately 438 MW, although the monthly capacity factors range from 23% in August to 26% in February. New York’s approach is to model wind resources as load modifiers with a 90% summer derate factor. Hourly wind readings taken at or near each wind resource are converted to hourly unit MW output. Wind density, turbine height, and other factors are taken into account. These hourly MW output values are then netted against the hourly zonal load. New York uses historic hourly wind readings taken in 2002. This wind study year also corresponds to the base hourly load shape year used in New York’s and NPCC’s resource adequacy studies. Ontario The wind resources in Ontario were modeled in the 2008 NPCC Summer Multi-Area Probabilistic Reliability Assessment using an hourly profile for a typical week (168 hourly values). The maximum capacity equals 173 MW through September, increasing to 331 MW in November as additional capacity is brought on-line. In this study, wind generation is assumed to contribute 10% of the nameplate rating, at the time of peak demand, for the mid term, 34 days to 18 months time horizon. Near term forecasting, days 1-33, presently assumes wind contributes 0%. Regarding long term, the Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) 6 currently
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