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Wind Energy in NY State 2010 New York State Wind Energy Study Final Report Source: Milian, Chris; www.photosfromonhigh.com Submitted by: Christina Hoerig Kimballe Campbell Daniel Grew Nicole Gumbs Happiness Munedzimwe Sandeep George Jun Wan Timothy Komsa Karl Smolenski Tyler Coatney Cornell University II Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................II List of Figures .................................................................................................................... VI List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... VII 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................. VIII 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................10 3 New York State Present Energy Supply/Demand ....................................................14 3.1 New York Energy Background ............................................................................14 3.2 Current NYS Wind Power ...................................................................................16 3.3 Near Term Growth of New York State Wind Power .............................................17 3.4 Progress of Other Renewables in New York State ..............................................19 3.5 Power Demand in Tompkins County ...................................................................19 4 New York State Future...............................................................................................22 4.1 Renewable Portfolio Standard .............................................................................22 4.1.1 Overview ................................................................................................. 22 4.1.2 RPS Implementation ................................................................................22 4.1.3 Levelized Costs and Revenues for Wind Technology .............................. 23 4.1.4 Wind Energy Incentives ...........................................................................24 4.1.5 Analysis of Incentive Money Expected by 2015 .......................................25 4.2 Current Renewable Energy Composition ............................................................25 4.3 Current Wind Farms ............................................................................................26 4.4 Proposed Wind Farms ........................................................................................ 27 4.5 Forecast for 2015 Renewable Energy Including Other Sources Besides Wind .... 29 4.6 Simulating probability of achieving RPS target ....................................................30 4.6.1 Wind Energy Projection ...........................................................................30 4.6.2 In-State Hydro-Electricity Projection ........................................................31 4.6.3 Hydro-Quebec Import Projection .............................................................31 4.6.4 Champlain Hudson Power Express Project .............................................32 4.6.5 Solar Energy Projection ...........................................................................34 4.6.6 Other renewable sources .........................................................................34 4.6.6.1 Landfill Gas ...............................................................................34 4.6.6.2 Biodiesel ...................................................................................34 4.6.6.3 Wood ........................................................................................ 35 4.6.7 Simulation Results ...................................................................................35 4.6.8 Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................................35 4.7 Offshore Wind Energy .........................................................................................36 4.7.1 Overview ................................................................................................. 36 4.7.2 Long Island - New York City Offshore Wind Collaborative ....................... 37 4.7.3 Advantages of an Offshore Wind Facility .................................................37 4.7.4 Offshore Wind Turbine Technology .........................................................40 4.7.5 Foundations.............................................................................................40 4.7.5.1 Shallow Water Foundations (Monopile Foundation & Gravity Base) 40 4.7.5.2 Jacket, Tripod and Tripile Foundations ......................................41 4.7.5.3 Suction Bucket Alternative to Piles ............................................42 4.7.5.4 Floating Offshore Wind Technology ..........................................42 4.7.6 Offshore Project Costs ............................................................................43 4.7.7 Potential for Wind Power Development of the Great Lakes Region ......... 44 III 5 Enfield Case Study ....................................................................................................46 5.1 Overview .............................................................................................................46 5.2 The Approach to Analysis ...................................................................................47 5.3 Data Validation ....................................................................................................48 5.3.1 Outlier Analysis .......................................................................................49 5.3.2 Redundancy Analysis ..............................................................................49 5.3.3 Weibull Distribution ..................................................................................51 5.3.3.1 Parameter estimation ................................................................54 5.4 Wind Pattern Characterization ............................................................................54 5.4.1 Annual Pattern .........................................................................................55 5.4.2 Diurnal Wind Speed Variation ..................................................................56 5.4.3 Wind Speed Variation by Height ..............................................................57 5.5 Power Calculation ...............................................................................................59 5.5.1 Power Curve ............................................................................................59 5.5.2 Power Output Calculation ........................................................................60 5.6 Enfield Supply versus Demand ...........................................................................62 5.7 Financial Analysis ...............................................................................................65 5.7.1 General Assumptions ..............................................................................66 5.7.2 Installation Cost and Annual Expenses ....................................................66 5.7.3 Levelized Cost .........................................................................................68 5.7.4 Net Present Value Analysis .....................................................................71 5.7.5 Levelized Worth .......................................................................................72 5.8 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................72 6 Recommendations .....................................................................................................73 7 Management Report ........................................................ 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