2010 New York State Wind Energy Study Final Report Source: Milian, Chris; www.photosfromonhigh.com Submitted by: Christina Hoerig Kimballe Campbell Daniel Grew Nicole Gumbs Happiness Munedzimwe Sandeep George Jun Wan Timothy Komsa Karl Smolenski Tyler Coatney Cornell University II Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................II List of Figures .................................................................................................................... VI List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... VII 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................. VIII 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................10 3 New York State Present Energy Supply/Demand ....................................................14 3.1 New York Energy Background ............................................................................14 3.2 Current NYS Wind Power ...................................................................................16 3.3 Near Term Growth of New York State Wind Power .............................................17 3.4 Progress of Other Renewables in New York State ..............................................19 3.5 Power Demand in Tompkins County ...................................................................19 4 New York State Future...............................................................................................22 4.1 Renewable Portfolio Standard .............................................................................22 4.1.1 Overview ................................................................................................. 22 4.1.2 RPS Implementation ................................................................................22 4.1.3 Levelized Costs and Revenues for Wind Technology .............................. 23 4.1.4 Wind Energy Incentives ...........................................................................24 4.1.5 Analysis of Incentive Money Expected by 2015 .......................................25 4.2 Current Renewable Energy Composition ............................................................25 4.3 Current Wind Farms ............................................................................................26 4.4 Proposed Wind Farms ........................................................................................ 27 4.5 Forecast for 2015 Renewable Energy Including Other Sources Besides Wind .... 29 4.6 Simulating probability of achieving RPS target ....................................................30 4.6.1 Wind Energy Projection ...........................................................................30 4.6.2 In-State Hydro-Electricity Projection ........................................................31 4.6.3 Hydro-Quebec Import Projection .............................................................31 4.6.4 Champlain Hudson Power Express Project .............................................32 4.6.5 Solar Energy Projection ...........................................................................34 4.6.6 Other renewable sources .........................................................................34 4.6.6.1 Landfill Gas ...............................................................................34 4.6.6.2 Biodiesel ...................................................................................34 4.6.6.3 Wood ........................................................................................ 35 4.6.7 Simulation Results ...................................................................................35 4.6.8 Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................................35 4.7 Offshore Wind Energy .........................................................................................36 4.7.1 Overview ................................................................................................. 36 4.7.2 Long Island - New York City Offshore Wind Collaborative ....................... 37 4.7.3 Advantages of an Offshore Wind Facility .................................................37 4.7.4 Offshore Wind Turbine Technology .........................................................40 4.7.5 Foundations.............................................................................................40 4.7.5.1 Shallow Water Foundations (Monopile Foundation & Gravity Base) 40 4.7.5.2 Jacket, Tripod and Tripile Foundations ......................................41 4.7.5.3 Suction Bucket Alternative to Piles ............................................42 4.7.5.4 Floating Offshore Wind Technology ..........................................42 4.7.6 Offshore Project Costs ............................................................................43 4.7.7 Potential for Wind Power Development of the Great Lakes Region ......... 44 III 5 Enfield Case Study ....................................................................................................46 5.1 Overview .............................................................................................................46 5.2 The Approach to Analysis ...................................................................................47 5.3 Data Validation ....................................................................................................48 5.3.1 Outlier Analysis .......................................................................................49 5.3.2 Redundancy Analysis ..............................................................................49 5.3.3 Weibull Distribution ..................................................................................51 5.3.3.1 Parameter estimation ................................................................54 5.4 Wind Pattern Characterization ............................................................................54 5.4.1 Annual Pattern .........................................................................................55 5.4.2 Diurnal Wind Speed Variation ..................................................................56 5.4.3 Wind Speed Variation by Height ..............................................................57 5.5 Power Calculation ...............................................................................................59 5.5.1 Power Curve ............................................................................................59 5.5.2 Power Output Calculation ........................................................................60 5.6 Enfield Supply versus Demand ...........................................................................62 5.7 Financial Analysis ...............................................................................................65 5.7.1 General Assumptions ..............................................................................66 5.7.2 Installation Cost and Annual Expenses ....................................................66 5.7.3 Levelized Cost .........................................................................................68 5.7.4 Net Present Value Analysis .....................................................................71 5.7.5 Levelized Worth .......................................................................................72 5.8 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................72 6 Recommendations .....................................................................................................73 7 Management Report ........................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.1 Project Team Overview ..........................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.2 Background on current energy supply and demand in New York State ......... Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.2.1 Management Structure ...............................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.2.2 Sub-team Strengths ....................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.2.3 Sub-team Weaknesses and Proposed Solutions ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.3 Medium to long term wind energy plan for New York State .. Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.3.1 Management Structure ...............................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.3.2 Sub-team Strengths ....................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.3.3 Sub-team Weaknesses and Proposed Solutions ...... Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4 Specific case study of wind for Enfield Wind in Enfield, NY .. Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.1 Overview ....................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.2 Sub-Team Structure ...................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.3 Roles of current sub-team leader ................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.4 Roles of on-coming sub-team leader ..........Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.5 Roles of sub-team member ........................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.6 Communication Protocols ...........................Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.7 Detailed Execution of Management ............Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.8 Challenging issues and current solutions ....Error! Bookmark not defined. 7.4.9 Suggested