Technical Change and Productivity
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Technical Change and Productivity In industrial countries, mill new information and communication technologies produce tremendous gains in productivity? A look at the role of institutional change Christopher Freeman Emeritus Professor of Science Policy, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Wthoy is it that when computers proliferate Some economists have been so impressed technical change—that is, the introduction, and scientists constantly emphasize new by this anomaly that they have concluded that diffusion, and efficient exploitation of these discoveries and inventions, rates of measured the measurement system must be at fault. discoveries and inventions, has not pro- productivity growth have been lower in the This is too complex an issue to discuss in the gressed as fast. 1970s and 1980s, in most industrial countries, space available here. The assumption will be In analyzing the causes of changes in than in the 1950s and 1960s? In Denmark, for made in what follows, however, that there productivity, this article focuses entirely on example, productivity growth has been zero has been a real slowdown in the growth of technical change, and not on the effects of or negative over the last few years even productivity in most industrialized countries. macroeconomic policies, which themselves though computerized machinery has been Can the productivity decline be explained have an important influence on productivity. widely diffused in Danish industry and offices. by a falling-off in the outputs of research and In the United States, the growth of both labor development work, or of other sources of Change in paradigm and total factor productivity slowed down scientific discovery, invention, and innova- A change in "technoeconomic paradigm" markedly in the 1970s and early 1980s and tion? The evidence generally shows no such takes place when new technology systems although manufacturing productivity has recov- trend. Indeed, the microelectronics revolu- change the dominant pattern of production ered somewhat, services productivity con- tion has led to an upsurge of inventions and and management throughout the economy. tinues to stagnate. innovations which affects not only manufac- The introduction of steam power or electric turing but most service industries as well. power are examples. Change of this kind not The explanation seems more likely to lie only gives rise to new ranges of products, This article is drawn from a longer paper, "Techni- in the processes of structural change and the services, systems, and industries in its own cal Change and Long-term Economic Growth, " new investment and training that are needed right; it also affects the costs and nature of October 1988, prepared for a 1988 World Bank seminar on Technology and Long-term Economic to diffuse radically new technologies. Thus, production and distribution throughout the Growth Prospects, and available from the author. it may be that the rate of technological change, economy. See also "Technological Change in Industry in in the sense of output of potentially useful The very big productivity gains of the > Developing Countries, " by CarlDahlman in Finance discoveries and inventions, has been increas- 1950s and 1960s were achieved by scaling j & Development, June 1989. ing during the 1970s and 1980s, while up the use of flow and assembly-line technol- : 46 Finance & Development I September 1989 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution ogies and, in the European Economic Com- munity and Japan, by catching up with the Factors affecting the rate of diffusion of four technologies United States, which pioneered these technol- (5 = most favorable; 1 = least favorable) ogies. Gains from these sources have by now Nuclear Space Information been largely exhausted. During the 1970s the technology technology technology Biotechnology Electric Civil Electronic Drug emphasis in the development of industrial power Other communication Other industry Other industry Other technology began to shift away from mass and flow production, intensive in its use of energy Profitability 2 2 2 2 5 2-5 2 1 2 and materials, to a much more flexible, Competition pressure 2 2 3 5 5 4 2 Scale of investment 1 1 2 1 2-5 1-5 2 2 information-intensive pattern of production, Environmental impact 2 1 4 3 5 4 4 3 associated with computerized control and Safety 3 2-4 4 2 5 4 4 4 communication systems. The slowdown in Technical reliability 2 3 4 3 5 4 4 3 productivity over the 1970s and 1980s seems Public attitudes 2 2 4 3 5 4 4 3 likely to reflect, to a large extent, the Change agents problems of structural and institutional adjust- Government 3 4 4 3 5 5 2 2 ment to a new technoeconomic paradigm, Multinational corporations 2 2 3 3 5 5 3 3 based on information and communication Other business 2 2 2 3 5 4 3 3 technology (ICT). Military strategy 4 5 1 5 5 5 1 2 The four technologies illustrated in the Potential range table are all sometimes described as "gener- of applications 3 2 3 2 5 5 3 4 ic" or "enabling" technologies, since they Source: OECD, The Challenge of New Technologies, by Christopher Freeman, for the OECD 25th Anniversary Symposium, offer scope for innovations and productivity Paris, 1986. improvements not just in one product or process but in many. The table suggests that, because of its potential influence on productiv- ity, information and communication tech- ers, wholesalers, and retailers, permits big manufacturing, procurement, sales, adminis- nology will prove to be by far the most savings in inventories at all levels in the tration, and technical service in any enter- important and pervasive of the generic system, and a far more rapid and sensitive prise has had significant effects on the skill technologies in the 1980s and 1990s. response to even daily changes in consumer profile of industry, affecting drawing offices Characteristics of ICT demand. and designers as well as clerical labor and Third, with the advances in the transmis- machine shops. While undoubtedly displacing Both within the ICT industries and in a sion of information, industries, services, and some labor, these developments also gener- wide range of applications of these technol- markets are becoming much more integrated ate a demand for new skills, which are ogies, technical change is very rapid. Under- internationally. Faster international transfer everywhere in short supply, and for new lying this rapid change is the continuing of technology and more mobility in the service types of information within firms and from dramatic improvement in the large-scale industries are among the consequences. The specialist firms in the provision of business integration of electronic circuits, and the financial services industry is already showing and computer services. continuing fall in costs that this permits. In the far-reaching effects of this enhanced Given all these characteristics, it is clear communications technology, fiber optics has mobility and many countries and regions will both that the new technoeconomic paradigm made possible similar drastic improvements ultimately be affected by major changes in the differs from that prevailing in the 1950s and in costs and performance and, together with international division of labor. 1960s in many important respects, and that computerized telephone exchanges, is leading Fourth, in many types of machinery and it entails revolutionary changes in the capital to a new telecommunications infrastructure, electronic goods, the redesign of products stock, in the skills needed by the economy, permitting very cheap worldwide image, data, and processes permitted by ICT makes and in management systems. How are voice, and other types of communication. possible a reduction in the number of electro- different industries adapting to this change? The advances in information and commu- mechanical components and a telescoping of Productivity in industry nication technology have consequences for some of the stages of component transforma- the integration and control of production as tion. This permits substantial savings in Labor productivity has been growing well as for the use of materials and labor. materials and energy. It also promotes a fastest in the electronics industries, espe- First, for example, ICT makes possible process of structural change, involving the cially the computer industry and the elec- greater flexibility and speed in changing loss of jobs in some metals and metal goods tronic component industry. These are the tooling and dies, and hence in changing industries and an increase in jobs in parts of industries that make greatest use of their own product models and designs. This means that the electronics components industry, elec- technology for design, production, stock small production runs become more economic tronic products, and producer services. control, marketing, and management. They than before. Since economies of scale are still Fifth, the use of ICT to communicate and are also the only industries to show a very important in marketing, finance, and store vast amounts of information on sales, significant rise in capital productivity. design, the rise of ICT is unlikely to displace inventories, and financial transactions has had In industries—such as scientific instru- large firms from their dominant position, but very far-reaching effects on banks, insurance ments, telecommunications, and watches it is leading them to surround themselves companies, retail chains, and supermarkets. —that have already been heavily penetrated with a penumbra of nearby specialized satel- It has made possible savings in capital and by microelectronics, both in their product and lite firms. materials as well as labor-saving organiza- process technology, labor productivity has Second, the use of ICT to link firms with tional and technical changes. risen considerably and recently even capital their suppliers of inputs, and to link produc- Sixth, the use of ICT to integrate design, productivity has advanced. Finance & Development I September 1989 47 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution technology. Their resistance to technical Institutional change and productivity growth in Japan change can be overcome only by a prolonged process of social change.