Iran: Weapons Proliferation, Terrorism, and Democracy Hearing

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Iran: Weapons Proliferation, Terrorism, and Democracy Hearing S. HRG. 109–211 IRAN: WEAPONS PROLIFERATION, TERRORISM, AND DEMOCRACY HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION MAY 19, 2005 Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/index.html U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 25–153 PDF WASHINGTON : 2005 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:49 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 963494.SEN SFORELA1 PsN: SFORELA1 COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS RICHARD G. LUGAR, Indiana, Chairman CHUCK HAGEL, Nebraska JOSEPH R. BIDEN, JR., Delaware LINCOLN CHAFEE, Rhode Island PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland GEORGE ALLEN, Virginia CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut NORM COLEMAN, Minnesota JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, Ohio RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Wisconsin LAMAR ALEXANDER, Tennessee BARBARA BOXER, California JOHN E. SUNUNU, New Hampshire BILL NELSON, Florida LISA MURKOWSKI, Alaska BARACK OBAMA, Illinois MEL MARTINEZ, Florida KENNETH A. MYERS, Jr., Staff Director ANTONY J. BLINKEN, Democratic Staff Director (II) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:49 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 963494.SEN SFORELA1 PsN: SFORELA1 CONTENTS Page Biden, Hon. Joseph R., Jr., U.S. Senator from Delaware ..................................... 57 Prepared opening statement ............................................................................ 57 Burns, Hon. R. Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, Depart- ment of State, Washington, DC .......................................................................... 4 Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 9 Coleman, Hon. Norm, U.S. Senator from Minnesota ............................................ 20 Dodd, Hon. Christopher J., U.S. Senator from Connecticut ................................ 15 Feingold, Hon. Russell D., U.S. Senator from Wisconsin ..................................... 22 Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 24 Hagel, Hon. Chuck, U.S. Senator from Nebraska ................................................. 16 Kemp, Dr. Geoffrey, director of Regional Strategic Programs, the Nixon Cen- ter, Washington, DC ............................................................................................ 31 Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 33 Lugar, Hon. Richard G., U.S. Senator from Indiana, opening statement ........... 1 Milhollin, Dr. Gary, professor emeritus, University of Wisconsin Law School and director, Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control, Washington, DC .......................................................................................................................... 35 Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 37 Nelson, Hon. Bill, U.S. Senator from Florida ........................................................ 15 Perkovich, Dr. George, Ph.D., vice president for studies, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC .......................................................... 40 Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 42 Samii, Dr. Abbas William, Ph.D., regional analysis coordinator for Southwest Asia and the Middle East, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Washington, DC .......................................................................................................................... 49 Prepared statement .......................................................................................... 51 Voinovich, Hon. George V., U.S. Senator from Ohio ............................................. 25 (III) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:49 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 963494.SEN SFORELA1 PsN: SFORELA1 VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:49 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 963494.SEN SFORELA1 PsN: SFORELA1 IRAN: WEAPONS PROLIFERATION, TERRORISM, AND DEMOCRACY THURSDAY, MAY 19, 2005 U.S. SENATE, COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:13 a.m., in room SD–419, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Richard G. Lugar, chairman of the committee, presiding. Present: Senators Lugar, Hagel, Coleman, Voinovich, Biden, Dodd, Feingold, Nelson, and Obama. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. RICHARD G. LUGAR, U.S. SENATOR FROM INDIANA The CHAIRMAN. This hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is called to order. Before I begin, let me just indicate for the benefit of all Senators watching our hearing that unfortunately, an objection has been filed about this committee meeting more than 2 hours after the Senate comes in. The Senate came in at 9:30, which means we will be concluding by 11:30. I am sad to mention that, but nevertheless, that goes with the circumstances. So we will proceed with Ambassador Burns’ testimony and ques- tioning of him. We will need to restrict our questions so that we have ample time for our distinguished second panel of witnesses to be heard. And then we will proceed as long as we can at that point. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee meets today to examine issues related to Iran, particularly that country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. For more than 18 years, Iran hid its nuclear activities from the world despite being a state party to the Nuclear Non-Pro- liferation Treaty. To avoid punitive measures after the direction of its nuclear pro- gram was exposed, Iran reached agreement with the United King- dom, Germany, and France, the EU–3, to suspend its nuclear fuel cycle capabilities. It also signed the Additional Protocol, which pro- vided for enhanced U.N. inspections of its nuclear facilities. Unfortunately, Iran has failed to ratify the Additional Protocol. It has refused to give the IAEA complete access to verify that no weapons activities are occurring, and last week it threatened to re- start its uranium conversion program. European officials responded by warning Tehran that they would leave the 2-year-long negotiations should any effort be made to re- sume uranium conversion. Since then, Iran has agreed to meet with the Foreign Ministers of the EU–3 next week in Europe. The (1) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 13:49 Dec 19, 2005 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 963494.SEN SFORELA1 PsN: SFORELA1 2 United States has endorsed these negotiations and has supported the European offer that Iran be allowed to join the World Trade Organization as an added incentive for full cooperation on the nu- clear issue. If these talks do not succeed, the next step may be referral of the problem to the U.N. Security Council. Time is running out not just for preventing Iranian acquisition of nuclear materials, but also for the viability of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. We must recognize that Iran is at a stage in its nuclear develop- ment where it can move rapidly toward production of nuclear weapons if it ceases to be hindered by any constraints. Enforcing the NPT has always been complicated by the relatively short time period required to move from legitimate civilian nuclear power ac- tivities permitted under the treaty, to building nuclear weapons. The success of the NPT depends on the international community taking decisive action when evidence emerges that a nonnuclear weapons state is illegally pursuing nuclear weapons. As in the Ira- nian case, warning signs that a country is cheating may come only a year or less before it is capable of building nuclear weapons ab- sent any constraints. The efforts of the EU–3 have slowed Iran’s progress, but the international community still has not coalesced behind a clear course of action with the potential to stop the Iranian nuclear pro- gram. The United States already has sanctions in place on Iran for its decades-long sponsorship of terror. The international community must be willing to join the United States in imposing potent eco- nomic sanctions if Iran does not comply with its obligations. Eco- nomic benefits could also be offered to reward Iran for good behav- ior. Essentially, the United States and its allies must present the Iranian Government with an unambiguous choice between eco- nomic self interest and pursuit of nuclear weapons. Even if the EU–3 succeeds in the short run, we will need to apply almost constant diplomatic and economic pressure to ensure that Iran does not continue its nuclear program. Iran will be an enormous challenge for the United States foreign policy, which can only be met through the sustained focus and attention of our high- est officials. This diplomatic heavy lifting includes convincing Euro- pean nations, and even Russia and China, that their interests in Iranian trade and energy supplies are secondary to the extreme risks associated with a nuclear-armed Iran. The possibility of a nuclear-weapons-capable Iran is particularly grave because of the Iranian regime’s connections to terrorists. I re- cently surveyed 85 top international experts in the field of non- proliferation for a forthcoming report, and one of the questions that I asked the survey group was whether a nuclear
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