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Libya Weekly Operational Preview . Libya Weekly Operational Preview May 02, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 1 © Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 5 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Military Operations ................................................................................................................................ 6 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 6 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 11 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 12 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 12 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 12 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 2 © Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ The political landscape in Libya continues to evolve at a pace. The new Presidential Council (PC) is driving forward, keen to realign international stakeholders and promote domestic reconciliation and reconstruction. The formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) is another major milestone in the country’s progress back to stability, but both the GNU and PC face a number of challenges in the coming months as the country prepares to move to elections in December. ▪ Pressure to see progress on the military track is resulting in an increase of military propaganda as some factions seek to preserve the status quo. In doing so however, they risk a real escalation of tensions along the Sirte to Jufra frontline. Efforts to progress the de-escalation will continue to focus on the reopening of the coastal road and the withdrawal of mercenaries. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. In many respects, the GNU is being seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he builds a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ This week, authorities in Benghazi pushed back against the GNU, refusing to allow a security detail to enter the city resulting in the cancellation of the new government's first planned trip to the country’s second city. ▪ Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar met with Speaker of the HoR Aquila Saleh in Saleh’s hometown of Al- Qubah. Photos of the event show both men smiling and shaking hands in traditional dress. The meeting is significant and indicates a rapprochement between the two men as they face the new political realities of Libya. ▪ SRSG Jan Kubis embarked on a tour across Libya this week. Kubis met with various political, military, and civil society actors, including Koni and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. ▪ The draft constitution has been passed to the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) Legal Committee. The current draft has two options for the selection of the president: direct election by the electorate and election by parliament. The legal committee is expected to present its GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 3 © conclusions to the LPDF to progress the issue. The legal framework for the elections needs to be in place by July 01 to support elections on December 24. ▪ The Council of Murzuq Elders claimed this week that an influx of displaced people from Chad had begun with people heading towards Umm Al-Aranib and Murzuq however the LNA later denied the claims. The south has seen a general increase in activity which has spread to the south of Sabha as the region adapts to the destabilisation of Chad and the LNA response to secure the south. ▪ The Turkish Parliament has approved the establishment of an inter-parliamentary friendship committee with Egypt. Turkey had disbanded their previous committee with Cairo after the 2013 coup which saw Abdel Fattah al-Sisi depose Mohamed Morsi and establish himself as president. The two countries have been working towards a rapprochement which could have a positive effect on Libya with both countries sitting on opposing sides of the Libyan divide. ▪ Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio has confirmed plans to reopen their consulate in Benghazi with Carlo Batori appointed as the Consul General. They also plan to establish an honorary consulate in Sabha. Italy closed its Benghazi consulate in 2013 after an attempted armed attack on January 12 that year. Italy is the latest country to increase its diplomatic ties with Libya following the end of the last conflict and the establishment of a new government. Military Developments ▪ The 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) began their fourth meeting in Sirte this week, the second day of which was attended by President Mohamed Menfi and SRSG Jan Kubis. The reopening of the coastal road and the withdrawal of mercenaries remained the focus of discussions. The JMC later stated they would announce the names of those standing in the way of the reopening of the route while the US also added their voice, increasing pressure on all factions to make progress. ▪ Pressure over the coastal road
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