China's Assertive Nuclear Posture
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Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 China’s Assertive Nuclear Posture China’s nuclear capability is crucial for the balance of power in East Asia and the world. As this book reveals, there have been important changes recently in China’s nuclear posture: the movement from a minimum deterrence posture toward a medium nuclear power posture; the pursuit of space warfare and missile defence capabilities; and, most significantly, the omission in the 2013 Defence White Paper of any reference to the principle of No First Use. Employing the insights of structural realism, this book argues that the impera- tives of an anarchic international order have been the central drivers of China’s nuclear assertiveness. The book also assesses the likely impact of China’s emerging nuclear posture on its neighbours and on the international strategic balance, especially with the United States. The book concludes by examining China’s future nuclear directions in the context of its apparent shift toward a more offensive-oriented international strategy. Baohui Zhang is Director, Centre for Asian Pacific Studies, and Professor of Political Science, at Lingnan University, Hong Kong. Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 China Policy Series Series Editor Zheng Yongnian, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore 1 China and the New 7 China’s Information and International Order Communications Edited by Wang Gungwu Technology Revolution and Zheng Yongnian Social changes and state responses 2 China’s Opening Society Edited by Xiaoling Zhang The non-state sector and Yongnian Zheng and governance Edited by Zheng Yongnian 8 Socialist China, Capitalist China and Joseph Fewsmith Social tension and political adaptation under 3 Zhao Ziyang and China’s economic globalisation Political Future Edited by Guoguang Wu and Edited by Guoguang Wu and Helen Lansdowne Helen Lansdowne 9 Environmental Activism in China 4 Hainan - State, Society, and Lei Xei Business in a Chinese Province Kjeld Erik Brodsgaard 10 China’s Rise in the World ICT Industry 5 Non-Governmental Industrial strategies and the Organizations in China catch-up development model The rise of dependent autonomy Lutao Ning Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 Yiyi Lu 11 China’s Local Administration 6 Power and Sustainability of the Traditions and changes in the Chinese State sub-national hierarchy Edited by Keun Lee, Joon-Han Edited by Jae-Ho Chung and Kim and Wing Thye Woo Tao-chiu Lam 12 The Chinese Communist Party as 20 China’s Crisis Management Organizational Emperor Edited by Jae Ho Chung Culture, reproduction and transformation 21 China Engages Zheng Yongian Global Governance A new world order 13 China’s Trade Unions – How in the making? Autonomous Are They? Gerald Chan, Pak K. Lee Masaharu Hishida, and Lai-Ha Chan Kazuko Kojima, Tomoaki Ishii and Jian Qiao 22 Political Culture and Participation in Rural China 14 Legitimating the Chinese Yang Zhong Communist Party since Tiananmen 23 China’s Soft Power and A critical analysis of the International Relations stability discourse Hongyi Lai and Yiyi Lu Peter Sandby-Thomas 24 China’s Climate Policy 15 China and CHEN Gang International Relations The Chinese view and the 25 Chinese Society – Change contribution of Wang Gungwu and Transformation Zheng Yongnian Edited by Li Peilin 16 The Challenge of Labour 26 China’s Challenges to in China Human Security Strikes and the changing labour Foreign relations and regime in global factories global implications Chris King-chi Chan Edited by Guoguang Wu 17 The Impact of China’s 1989 27 China’s Internal and Tiananmen Massacre International Migration Edited by Jean-Philippe Béja Edited by Li Peilin and Laurence Roulleau-Berger Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 18 The Institutional Dynamics of China’s Great Transformation 28 The Rise of Think Tanks Edited by Xiaoming Huang in China Xufeng Zhu 19 Higher Education in Contemporary China 29 Governing Health in Beyond expansion Contemporary China Edited by W. John Morgan Yanzhong Huang and Bin Wu 30 New Dynamics in Cross-Taiwan 35 Social Protest in Contemporary Straits Relations China, 2003–2010 How far can the Transitional Pains and rapprochement go? regime legitimacy Edited by Weixing Hu Yanqi Tong and Shaohua Lei 31 China and the European Union 36 China’s Evolving Edited by Lisheng Dong, Industrial Policies and Zhengxu Wang and Economic Restructuring Henk Dekker Edited by Zheng Yongnian and Sarah Y. Tong 32 China and the International System 37 China Entering the Becoming a world power Xi Jinping Era Edited by Xiaoming Huang Edited by Zheng Yongnian and Robert G. Patman and Lance L. P. Gore 33 China’s Social Development 38 China’s Assertive and Policy Nuclear Posture Into the next stage? State Security in an Anarchic Litao Zhao International Order Baohui Zhang 34 E-Government in China Technology, power and local government reform Jesper Schlæger Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 China’s Assertive Nuclear Posture State Security in an Anarchic International Order Baohui Zhang Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 Add AddAddAdd Add Add Add Add AddAddAdd AddAdd AddAdd First published 2015 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2015 Baohui Zhang The right of Baohui Zhang to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patent Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Zhang, Baohui, 1963- China’s assertive nuclear posture : state security in an anarchic international order / Baohui Zhang. pages cm. -- (China policy series ; 38) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Nuclear weapons--China. 2. China--Military policy. 3. China--Foreign relations--21st century. 4. National security--China. 5. Geopolitics--Asia. I. Title. U264.5.C6Z53 2015 355.02’170951--dc23 2014029464 ISBN: 978-1-138-79925-7 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-75615-8 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Taylor & Francis Books Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 Contents List of tables viii Acknowledgement ix Introduction 1 1 Analyzing China’s nuclear posture 14 2 China’s nuclear forces and doctrines 49 3 Balance of power and China’s expanding offensive nuclear capabilities 78 4 Balance of power and new dimensions of China’s strategic capabilities 97 5 Balance of threat and China’s changing NFU policy 115 6 China’s nuclear assertiveness and East Asian security 150 7 Conclusion 172 Bibliography 182 Index 198 Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 List of tables 2.1 China’s missile force 55 7.1 Scenario 1 of China’s future strategic nuclear capability 179 7.2 Scenario 2 of China’s future strategic nuclear capability 180 Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 Acknowledgement I would like to thank Lingnan University for granting me one term of academic leave in 2012 that allowed me to explore deeper into the literature of inter- national relations theory. This leave afforded me a valuable opportunity to survey the field of international relations and enabled me to develop a coherent theoretical framework to tie up my previous research and publications on China’s nuclear deterrent and Sino–US nuclear relationship. I would also like to thank Professor Zheng Yongnian of East Asia Institute, the National University of Singapore, for his kind support of this book project. In fact, his support makes the publication of this book possible. My colleague at Lingnan University, Shalendra Sharma, read the manu- script and made many constructive comments. I hereby express my thanks to him. I want to thank my family for their generous support during the past years. My wife and son put up with many evenings that saw my absence at the dinner table. Their sacrifice and understanding have enabled me to devote more time to research and writing. This book is one of the products of their support. So I would like to dedicate this book to my wife Yinghao and my son Evan. It is built on their selfless sacrifice. Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 This page intentionally left blank Downloaded by [New York University] at 22:38 06 August 2016 Introduction In the space of two summer months in 2012, China conducted four strategic missile tests. On July 24, China test fired a newly developed DF-41 missile that is reportedly capable of carrying up to ten independently guided war- heads. On August 16, China launched a JL-2 SLBM from a Type 094 SSBN in the Bohai Sea. On August 20, China test fired a silo-based DF-5A intercontinental missile. Finally, on August 30, China launched a road-mobile DF-31A missile that first made its debut in 2009.1 Then, on October 28, 2013, China staged high-profile propaganda about its strategic nuclear submarine forces. All leading national newspapers simulta- neously highlighted the issue on their front pages.2 This high-intensity cover- age of Chinese sea-based strategic forces represents an important nuclear signaling effort on the part of China.