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Corporate Bond Market Review Estrategia de Deuda Corporativa México 7 Corporate Bond Market Review Pemex is back on the market January 17, 2020 ▪ During December, six long-term bonds were placed on the corporate www.banorte.com local market for a total amount of MXN 18,600 million, 1.1x higher @analisis_fundam compared with the same month in 2018. It stands out Pemex’s issuance for MXN 5,100 million, the first one since 2016 Tania Abdul Massih Director of Corporate Debt ▪ At the end of 2019 the long-term issued volume amounted MXN 156,304 [email protected] million, a 17.9% decrease compared to the end of 2018 Hugo Gómez ▪ In the short-term corporate market, MXN 12,269 million were auctioned Senior Analyst, Corporate Debt [email protected] in December, exceeding once again (+27.9%) the amount registered the same month in 2018 Gerardo Valle Analyst, Corporate Debt ▪ During the last month of the year, only one bond was placed on the [email protected] banking long-term market (considering only instruments VT 94 and CD) by Scotiabank Inverlat, SCOTIAB 19-2 for MXN 6,000 million Long-term corporate bond market. The amount placed during December 2019, through six issuances, amounted MXN 18,600 million, 1.1x higher compared with the same month in 2018. It is important to mention that four of the six bonds were auctioned in the last days of November but settled in the first days of Contents December. It stands out the first placement by Pemex since 2016 for MXN 5,100 Long-Term Corporate Bond Market 2 million, consolidating its leading position in the Mexican debt market. At the end Short-Term Corporate Bond Market 9 of 2019, the issued volume totaled MXN 156,304mdp, a 17.9% decrease Banking Bond Market (VT 94 and CD) 13 compared to 2018. Regarding the reference rate breakdown, the market showed a Attachments 16 balance between issues pegged to floating and inflation-indexed (UDI- denominated) with a 40% each of the total amount issued; and the remaining 20% was assigned to fixed rate issues. Banking bond market (VT 94 and CD). During December 2019, only one auction took place in this market by Scotiabank Inverlat for MXN 6,000 million. Document for distribution among public Throughout 2019 MXN 109,129 million were issued, a 30.7% higher than 2018 (MXN 83,483 million). Corporate Bond Market Volume – Long-Term Monthly issued volume – Long-Term MXN Million MXN Million Outstanding amount 1,264,272 1,233,292 1,204,282 2018 2019 1,118,225 1,108,559 51,066 28,918 26,850 26,447 25,500 21,500 19,528 18,600 16,750 16,200 13,316 14,450 14,356 8,550 9,880 8,805 7,875 6,140 6,600 Issued 4,515 240 0 219,982 190,282 156,304 0 229,086 500 amount 100,514 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Banorte / BMV / BIVA / Valmer as of December 2019. This document is provided for the reader’s convenience only. The translation from the original Spanish version was made by Banorte’s staff. Discrepancies may possibly arise between the original document in Spanish and its English translation. For this reason, the original research paper in Spanish is the only official document. The Spanish version entitled “Lo Último en Deuda Corporativa: Diciembre 2019”, was released before the English translation on January 8th, 2020. Corporate Bond Market – Long Term Market Evolution. At the end of December 2019, the private medium and long- term bond market added up to MXN 1,233,292 million, made up of instruments such as Securities Certificates (CB’s) and Ordinary Debt Participation Certificates (CPO’s) issued by corporates, states, municipalities, infrastructure programs and state-owned agencies. CB’s made up 99.5% of the total outstanding volume. Corporate Bond Market Volume – Long-Term MXN Million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Outstanding amount 1,264,272 1,233,292 1,204,282 Securities Certificates 1,118,225 1,108,559 Issued 219,982 100,514 229,086 190,282 156,304 Outstanding 1,112,188 1,102,523 1,198,245 1,258,236 1,227,255 CPO's** Outstanding 6,037 6,037 6,037 6,037 6,037 Debentures** Outstanding 0 0 0 0 0 Total Issued 219,982 100,514 229,086 190,282 156,304 YoY Growth* 8.5% -54.3% 127.9% -16.9% -17.9% Total Outstanding 1,118,225 1,108,559 1,204,282 1,264,272 1,233,292 219,982 229,086 190,282 156,304 Issued 100,514 YoY Growth* 11.6% -0.9% 8.6% 5.0% -2.5% amount 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Banorte / BMV / BIVA / Valmer, as of December 2019. Source: Banorte / BMV / Valmer, as of December 2019. ** There have been no placements in these categories since 2007. December issuances. The amount placed during December 2019, through six issuances, amounted MXN 18,600 million, 1.1x higher compared with the same month in 2018. At the end of 2019, the issued volume totaled MXN 156,304mdp, a 17.9% decrease compared to 2018. It is important to mention that four of the six bonds were auctioned in the last days of November but settled in the first days of December. Monthly issued volume MXN Million 51,066 2018 2019 28,918 26,850 26,447 25,500 21,500 19,528 18,600 16,750 16,200 13,316 14,450 14,356 8,805 8,550 9,880 7,875 6,140 6,600 4,515 240 0 0 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Banorte / BMV / BIVA / Valmer as of December 2019. December Issuances MXN Million Settlement Maturity Ref. Rate Spread Credit Rating S&P/Moody’s Issue Amount Str. Issuer Date Date % /Fitch/HR/Verum FOVISCB 19-2U 4,000 MBS 2-Dec-19 28-Jan-49 UDIS : 4.27% nd / Aaa.mx / AAA (mex) / nd / FOVISSSTE VWLEASE 19-2 2,500 No 2-Dec-19 15-May-23 TIIE28 + 0.65% mx AAA / Aaa.mx / nd / nd / Volkswagen Leasing CDMXCB 19 1,500 FF 3-Dec-19 20-Nov-29 FIXED : 7.82% nd / nd / AAA (mex) / HR AAA / Gobierno de la CDMX LAMOSA 19 2,000 No 3-Dec-19 20-Nov-29 FIXED : 9.12% nd / nd / AA- (mex) / HR AA- / Grupo Lamosa CAMSCB 19U 3,500 FF 5-Dec-19 29-Dec-49 UDIS : 5.65% nd / nd / AA+ (mex) / HR AAA / Conc. Autop. Mty-Saltillo PEMEX 19 5,100 No 23-Dec-19 16-Dec-24 TIIE28 + 1% mx AAA / Aa3.mx / nd / HR AAA Petróleos Mexicanos Total 18,600 Source: Banorte / BMV / BIVA with information on Prospects, CNBV applications, Public Offer Notices and “Selling Memos”. na: Not available or preliminary data. The information set forth herein may differ materially from the final or current information. * Reopening. Reference Rate Breakdown - floating rates leading the market. Issues pegged to the 28-day TIIE take up the biggest share of the corporate debt market: 46.5% of the total issued volume of MXN 156,304 million. They are followed by fixed rate notes with 31.0% and inflation-linked notes (UDIS) with 21.4%. These three references together add up to 98.8% of the issued amount (remaining 1.2% accounts for 182-day CETE with 0.6% and LIBOR with 0.6%). This rate breakdown is explained by the dovish rhetoric of the main central banks, including Banxico. FOMC. In the last Fed’s monetary policy decision, the committee decided to maintain the Fed Funds range in 1.50% - 1.75%, as expected. The tone of the communique was neutral, as it continued to confirm that the FOMC is comfortable with its current monetary policy. Fed – What to expect? According to our Economic Research team, recent data doesn’t support an additional easing in 2020. Fed speakers are aligned with this thesis, as depicted in the most recent dot-plots, the theirs assessment about the current state of the economy (more resilient to external shocks). Taking into account this backdrop, we expect the Federal Reserve to stay put this year, with a low likelihood of additional stimulus. Banxico – Confirming that a prudent easing cycle is the best way to go. On December 19th, Banxico cut the reference rate by 25bps to 7.25%. The decision was in line with our call and market expectations. Our Economic Research team now believes the easing cycle could stop at 6.50%, 50bps higher than the previous estimate: They expect three 25bps cuts in each of the following meetings, taking place in February, March and May. During the 1Q20, we estimate a low volume of long-term issuances. As we have observed in previous years, the first quarter might show a slow performance regarding to issuances, so it is likely that we observe this trend especially during January and February. Securities Certificates – Reference Rate Reference Rate Breakdown, 2019 MXN Million, % % Ref. Rate 2019 Issuances % CETE182 LIBOR FIXED 48,382 31.0% 1% 1% FIXED UDIS 33,424 21.4% 31% Total floating rate 74,497 47.7% TIIE28 72,623 46.5% TIIE91 0 0.0% CETE 182 1000 0.6% TIIE28 LIBOR 874 0.6% 46% MIX 0 0.0% Total 156,304 100% UDIS 21% Source: Banorte / BMV / BIVA / Valmer, as of December 2019. Due to rounding, totals may not correspond to the sum of all figures shown.
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