J Contentree
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J Contentree (036420 KQ ) Focus on potential rather than visibility Media 1Q18 review: Disappointing results Results Comment For 1Q18, J Contentree reported consolidated revenue of W109.6bn (+26.2% YoY; all growth figures hereafter are YoY) and operating profit of W4bn (-22.8%). Revenue was May 14, 2018 in line, but operating profit missed our estimate (W7.1bn) and the consensus (W8.2bn). Licensing revenue was weaker than expected due to the disappointing performance of dramas aired late last year, while multiplex margins were dragged do wn by site rollouts. Broadcasting (JTBC Content Hub + parent): Revenue was W47.5bn (+134.6%) , and (Downgrade) Trading Buy operating profit was W1.1bn (+9.4%). Revenue grew markedly, boosted by the addition of Monday/Tuesday drama slots. Domestic/overseas licensing revenues related to Target Price (12M, W) ▲ 8,800 Untouchable (November-January) and Rain or Shine (December-January) were tepid , but overall distribution volume was robust thanks to the hit drama Misty (February- March). Share Price (05/11/18, W) 7,370 Multiplex (Megabox): Revenue was W70.4bn (+3.1%), and operating profit was Expected Return W3.1bn (-28.1%). The box-office market was strong during the f irst two months of the 19% year due to the success of several titles released late last year ( Along with the Gods and 1987 ), but the lack of content in March resulted in a 1.9% fall in nationwide box- office revenue in the quarter. Megabox’s theater rollouts (market share expansion) OP (18F, Wbn) 75 helped drive above-market growth, but also pushed up expenses (including labor Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 56 expenses), pressuring profits. EPS Growth (18F, %) 510.1 Earnings: 2H18 >2Q18 >1Q18 Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 16.3 While 1Q18 results were disappointing, we also observed several positive signals in the P/E (18F, x) 21.4 report. Market P/E (18F, x) 9.5 Broadcasting: The drama Misty sho uld continue to support domestic/overseas KOSDAQ 865.93 licensing revenue in 2Q18. Something in the Rain , which has gained a huge following since airing on March 30 th , has seen strong domestic distribution and has also been Market Cap (Wbn) 841 sold to Netflix (NFLX US/CP: US$326.46; potential for additional sales to Shares Outstanding (mn) 114 Japan ese/Taiwanese channels). A much-anticipated drama coming out in 2Q18 is Sketch (Rain and Lee Dong-gun). The title has a much larger budget (over W600mn per Free Float (%) 65.4 episode) than previous dramas, which bodes well for top-line growth. Foreign Ownership (%) 3.1 Multiplex: In April, the box-office market grew 32.5%, driven by a combination of Beta (12M) 0.68 ticket price hikes and the blockbuster film Avengers: Infinity War . A number of other 52-Week Low 3,605 highly anticipated foreign films are set to hit theaters in May-June. Overall, we think 52-Week High 8,470 demand could outpace labor expenses. Meanwhile, Megabox’s strategic decision to scale back its theater openings should begin to have a positive impact on margins in (%) 1M 6M 12M 2H18. Absolute -11.1 65.2 84.9 Focus on potential rather than visibility Relative -9.1 37.5 38.3 We raise our target price on J Contentree to W8,800 (fair value of W1tr), but 230 J Contentree KOSDAQ downgrade our rating to Trading Buy. We derived our target price using a SOTP methodology in light of the disparities in the market environment and growth of each 180 business. We value the multiplex business at W263.6bn and the broadcasting business at W736.2bn, adjusting for the company’s equity stakes. Our target price corresponds to a 2018F P/E (attributable to controlling interests) of 25.5x. 130 As the latest results show, the IP i nvestment/distribution business is still in the early 80 stages of growth and thus has limited earnings visibility. The company also faces a 5.17 9.17 1.18 5.18 number of variables related to licensing rates and joint productions. However, we would focus on its proven ability to steadily improve its content competitiveness domestically and overseas amid a thriving global content licensing market. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 369 306 335 420 563 641 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 36 33 29 33 75 98 [email protected] OP margin (%) 9.8 10.8 8.7 7.9 13.3 15.3 NP (Wbn) 0 11 19 6 39 46 EPS (W) -1 128 169 56 344 403 ROE (%) -0.1 15.0 26.3 5.3 22.1 20.8 P/E (x) - 43.9 22.9 96.8 21.4 18.3 P/B (x) 2.3 9.5 5.0 3.8 4.1 3.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates May 14, 2018 J Contentree We believe demand from global OTTs and Chinese platforms remains robust and is strengthening. In our view, the company is well-positioned to benefit from: 1) an increased drama budget (W700mn per episode) in 2H18; 2) a potential pickup in exports to China (sales of remake rights are continuing); and 3) rising prices across the overall market. Table 1. Target price calculation (Wbn, x) Valuation - SOTP (2018F) Fair market cap 999.7 1) + 2) 1) Megabox 263.6 Operating profit 27.1 NOPLAT (controlling) 15.9 Target P/NOPLAT 16.6 Applied P/E of US peers 2) Broadcast 736.2 Operating profit 27.2 NOPLAT (controlling) 14.1 a) + b) a) JTBC Content Hub 5.7 b) J Con (IP) 8.4 Target P/NOPLAT 52.2 Applied avg. Studio Dragon P/E (YTD) Target price (W) 8,764 Upside potential (%) 18.9 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Consolidated quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn, %p ) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18P 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2016 2017 2018F Revenue 87 97 116 121 110 133 172 148 335 420 563 Megabox 68 57 84 81 70 72 112 79 255 291 333 Box office 39 33 45 46 40 42 60 44 153 163 186 Concessions 12 10 13 14 12 13 18 13 46 49 56 Screen ads 9 7 10 10 9 9 13 10 34 36 41 Other 8 7 16 11 9 9 22 11 23 43 51 JTBC Content Hub 17 41 28 41 30 46 49 55 83 127 180 J Con (IP) 4 13 9 9 17 24 24 26 0 35 92 Operating profit 5.2 8.9 10.7 8.6 4.0 18.6 30.7 21.2 28.9 33.3 74.5 OP margin (%) 6.0 9.2 9.2 7.1 3.7 14.1 17.8 14.3 8.6 7.9 13.2 Megabox 4.3 0.0 9.1 12.5 3.1 2.9 16.1 5.0 22.3 25.9 27.1 JTBC Content Hub 1.0 6.9 2.2 -0.2 0.9 5.1 4.8 5.3 8.4 9.9 16.1 J Con (IP) -0.1 2.2 0.0 -0.3 0.2 3.3 3.5 4.1 0.0 1.8 11.1 Pretax profit 5.1 8.8 8.1 2.4 7.9 17.5 29.5 20.0 35.1 24.4 74.9 Net profit 3.8 6.3 1.7 -0.9 6.6 13.3 22.4 15.2 22.4 10.9 57.5 Net margin (%) 4.4 6.5 1.5 -0.8 6.0 10.0 13.0 10.3 6.7 2.6 10.2 Net profit attributable to 3.5 3.2 -1.0 0.8 4.6 9.4 15.0 10.2 19.2 6.4 39.3 controlling interests YoY Revenue -5.3 21.2 9.6 108.6 26.2 37.3 48.9 22.4 -4.2 25.4 33.9 Megabox 6.5 11.5 7.9 31.9 3.1 26.1 32.8 -2.8 10.0 14.0 14.6 JTBC Content Hub -13.3 113.1 52.7 55.6 82.0 11.1 74.9 33.6 -0.5 52.6 41.7 J Con (IP) - - - - 368.2 89.5 166.5 184.0 - - 164.5 Operating profit -56.8 404.7 -30.9 TTB -22.8 109.3 188.0 146.3 -7.8 15.2 123.5 Net profit -42.8 TTB -85.9 TTR 74.4 111.4 1,192.2 TTB 14.1 -51.4 428.4 Key assumptions Domestic attendance 52.3 45.0 64.0 58.6 51.3 49.0 70.0 51.6 217.0 219.9 222.0 Megabox attendance 10.2 8.6 12.2 11.7 10.2 9.8 14.0 10.3 40.8 42.7 44.3 Megabox share 19.6 19.2 19.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 18.8 19.4 20.0 Note: Based on consolidated K-IFRS. Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 May 14, 2018 J Contentree Figure 1. Slowdown in theater openings growth to drive up average profitability (%) 20 Box office YoY Multiplex YoY 15 10 5 0 -5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Source: KOFIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2.