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OTT Joint Venture to Boost Competitiveness

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OTT Joint Venture to Boost Competitiveness 2019. 9. 18 Company CJ ENM (035760) Update OTT joint venture to boost competitiveness ● CJ ENM plans to launch a new OTT platform early next year, combining its Tving Minha Choi service with JTBC (which owns a vast amount of quality content) in a joint venture Analyst (JV). CJ ENM should be the controlling shareholder of the JV. [email protected] ● We expect CJ ENM and JTBC to cooperate in several ways. As both possess 822 2020 7798 copyright on a vast amount of quality content (including dramas and entertainment Kwak Hoin shows), they could bundle their content to offer in a package, and this might Research Associate bestow the JV with better bargaining power in terms of content pricing. [email protected] ● We like the JV plan, believing it will enhance CJ ENM’s content competitiveness by 822 2020 7763 boosting its bargaining power—this, amid anticipation of stronger competition in the video streaming market, where multiple global players are operating. WHAT’S THE STORY? OTT joint venture with JTBC: CJ ENM has signed a memorandum of understanding with JTBC to establish an OTT join venture (scheduled to launch early next year). The JV plan is in its infant stage, and few details are available, but CJ ENM is expected to be the largest shareholder, and JTBC the second-largest. Cooperation to be found in various forms: Assuming the JV goes ahead, CJ ENM will spin off its existing OTT platform Tving (part of its media division). CJ ENM and AT A GLANCE JTBC intend to use the JV to distribute their content to Korean OTT platforms, and they should cooperate in several ways (eg , bundling content). At the right price, they would supply content to any domestic OTT platform, which leaves open the possibility of an alliance with a telco. Target price KRW225,000 (34.4%) Content bargaining power to grow: The media industry in Korea and overseas is in Current price KRW167,400 the throes of dramatic change. Global OTT players are poised to enter the Korean video Market cap KRW3.7t/USD3.1b streaming market, with Apple and Disney targeting a November start to their services Shares (float) 21,929,154 (46.8%) 52 -week high/low KRW259,000/KRW150,900 (Apple TV Plus and Disney Plus, respectively) and HBO Max planning to enter the market Avg daily trading KRW11.0b/ early next year. The resultant spike in competition will make it inevitable that Korea value (60-day) USD9.3m media firms join forces to enhance their competitiveness. Against this backdrop, CJ ENM ONE-YEAR PERFORMANCE should emerge as a winner if it ties up with JTBC (as long as it is the controlling 1M 6M 12M shareholder in their JV), as its content bargaining power should strengthen. The two CJ ENM (%) 9.6 -30.0 -30.9 firms already hold meaningful positions in the overall media value chain (including in Vs Kosdaq (%pts) 0.7 -18.7 -11.1 content production and distribution), and as content quality ultimately determines the KEY CHANGES competitiveness of an OTT platform, the tie-up should lift the competitiveness of both. We maintain BUY on CJ ENM with a target price of KRW225,000. (KRW) New Old Diff Recommend. BUY BUY SUMMARY FINANCIAL DATA Target price 225,000 225,000 0.0% 2019E EPS 11,688 11,635 0.5% 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2020E EPS 12,798 12,737 0.5% Revenue (KRWb) 4,358 4,785 5,025 5,308 Operating profit (KRWb) 315 363 367 407 SAMSUNG vs THE STREET Net profit (adj) (KRWb) 269 279 305 340 No of estimates 18 EPS (adj) (KRW) 17,514 11,688 12,798 14,279 Target price 240,222 EPS (adj) growth (% y-y) (80.3) (33.3) 9.5 11.6 Recommendation 4.0 EBITDA margin (%) 19.3 19.3 18.5 18.4 BUY ★★★ : 5 / BUY: 4 / HOLD: 3 / SELL: 2 / SELL ★★★ : 1 ROE (%) 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.3 P/E (adj) (x) 9.6 14.3 13.1 11.7 P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 5.8 5.6 5.2 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 Source: Company data, Samsung Securities estimates CJ ENM 2019. 9. 18 Table 1. CJ ENM and JTBC’s joint venture MOU Content Details Agreement Establish a joint venture by integrating each firm’s copyrighted content by early 2020 Launch an integrated OTT platform based on CJ ENM’s existing platform, Tving Participating CJ ENM as the largest shareholder, JTBC as the second-largest shareholder shareholder s Establish an OTT platform with an open collaboration structure through content combination and Post-MOU plans additional partnerships Need to have an optimal platform targeting various categories of users; increase content planning Common purpose and production capabilities and effectively serve high-quality content To create a virtuous circle in which content is consumed within the platform and revenue is CJ ENM reinvested in content To continue producing well-made content that works in both domestic and overseas markets; to strengthen original OTT content and expand the supply of diverse externally produced content JTBC To expand audience content selection and enhance global competitiveness of domestic media Source: Company data, Media press, Samsung Securities Chart 1. CJ ENM & JTBC: Combined OTT Chart 2. Tving website Source: Samsung Securities Source: Company data, Samsung Securities 2 CJ ENM 2019. 9. 18 Table 2. Korean OTT platforms Service Company Feature Watching at time of terrestrial broadcast Providing movies and various content Contents Wavve Providing VOD and curation Providing ad-free content Providing exclusive content from the likes of CBS, BBC Providing Korea’s largest number of sports channels, VOD SK Broadband Broadcast clip, multi-channel networks, original programs Providing separate services through exclusive channel for telco customers Providing TV program of CJ’s channels, such as Mnet and tvN Tving CJ ENM Expanding content business with single-person media content and content for kids Providing DreamWorks channel exclusively OllehTV Mobile KT Full HD service for all live channels UHD, VR/AR services Broadcasting, viewer-supplied video, free content, VLive App Naver TV Naver for TV Establish NaverTV Creator Studio Broadcasting, viewer-supplied video, Live/VOD, free content, interlocking usage of Kakao Talk Kakao TV Daum Providing two-way commerce service with video tag technology About 23,000 programs focused on foreign dramas Specialized user-friendly curation Watcha Play Frograms Separate reviews for each item of content Providing ad-free content Source: KOCCA, Samsung Securities Table 3. Overseas OTT platforms OTT Platform Company Monthly subscribe fee Netflix USD8.99-15.99 USD6.99 (to be commercialized from Nov 12) Disney USD5.99-44.99 Amazon USD5.99-12.99 Apple USD9.99 (to be commercialized from Nov 1) AT&T USD60-135 AT&T Now (DirecTV Now) USD50-135 AT&T WatchTV WatchTV USD15 HBO Max Expected to be USD17 (to be commercialized from spring 2020) Source: Company data, Samsung Securities 3 CJ ENM 2019. 9. 18 Income statement Balance sheet Year-end Dec 31 (KRWb) 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Year-end Dec 31 (KRWb) 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Sales 3,973 4,358 4,785 5,025 5,308 Current assets 1,939 1,807 1,894 1,916 2,033 Cost of goods sold 2,365 2,664 2,960 2,985 3,161 Cash & equivalents 239 453 376 331 333 Gross profit 1,609 1,694 1,825 2,039 2,146 Accounts receivable 782 881 926 1,004 1,065 Gross margin (%) 40.5 38.9 38.1 40.6 40.4 Inventories 76 94 93 101 103 SG&A expenses 1,321 1,379 1,462 1,672 1,739 Other current assets 841 378 500 480 533 Operating profit 288 315 363 367 407 Fixed assets 4,617 4,948 5,022 5,109 5,172 Operating margin (%) 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.3 7.7 Investment assets 1,154 1,517 1,554 1,650 1,699 Non-operating gains (losses) 489 3 4 34 39 Tangible assets 1,129 1,398 1,449 1,418 1,442 Financial profit 25 66 69 73 77 Intangible assets 1,734 1,827 1,878 1,894 1,909 Financial costs 59 56 75 73 77 Other long-term assets 601 206 141 147 122 Equity-method gains (losses) 583 28 43 47 52 Total assets 6,556 6,755 6,917 7,025 7,205 Other (61) (35) (34) (13) (12) Current liabilities 1,550 2,022 2,078 1,835 1,933 Pre-tax profit 777 318 367 401 446 Accounts payable 36 186 248 254 263 Taxes 211 49 88 96 106 Short-term debt 217 693 574 424 451 Effective tax rate (%) 27.2 15.4 24.1 23.9 23.7 Other current liabilities 1,297 1,143 1,257 1,157 1,219 Profit from continuing operations 565 269 279 305 340 Long-term liabilities 1,273 1,308 1,158 1,244 1,028 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 0 Bonds & long-term debt 962 1,033 794 849 600 Net profit 565 269 279 305 340 Other long-term liabilities 311 275 364 395 428 Net margin (%) 14.2 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.4 Total liabilities 2,823 3,329 3,236 3,078 2,962 Net profit (controlling interests) 565 269 256 281 313 Owners of parent equity 3,277 2,763 2,996 3,237 3,507 Net profit (non-controlling interests) 13 22 22 24 27 Capital stock 31 111 111 111 111 EBITDA 532 841 922 930 977 Capital surplus 80 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 EBITDA margin (%) 13.4 19.3 19.3 18.5 18.4 Retained earnings 1,760 1,070 1,303 1,544 1,814 EPS (parent-based) (KRW) 90,964 19,043 11,688 12,798 14,279 Other 1,406 (662) (662) (662) (662) EPS (consolidated) (KRW) 90,964 19,043 12,708 13,915 15,525 Non-controlling interests’ equity 456 662 685 709 737 Adjusted EPS (KRW)* 88,940 17,514 11,688 12,798 14,279 Total equity 3,733 3,426 3,681 3,947 4,244 Net debt 818 1,384 1,012 869 630 Cash flow statement Financial ratios Year-end Dec 31 (KRWb) 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Year-end Dec 31 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Cash flow from operations 330 587 986 783 863 Growth (%) Net profit 565 269 279 305 340 Sales 7.2 9.7 9.8 5.0 5.6 Non-cash profit and expenses 332 544 624 628 637 Operating profit 39.1 9.5 15.3 1.1 10.8 Depreciation 166 180 190 187 187 Net profit 505.1 (52.4) 3.6 9.5 11.6
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