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Climate Change in the South East Queensland Region

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Climate Change in the South East Queensland Region Photo: Tourism Queensland Tourism Photo: Climate change in the South East Queensland Region Rainfall Data Temperature Data Tewantin Post Office This regional summary describes Sunshine Coast the projected climate change Regional Council for the South East Queensland (SEQ) region. Somerset Regional Council Moreton Bay Regional Council Projected average temperature, Brisbane rainfall and evaporation for Brisbane City Redland Lockyer UQ Gatton Council City 2030, 2050 and 2070 under low, Valley Council Regional Amberley Council Ipswich City Council Logan medium and high greenhouse City Harrisville Council Post Office Gold gas emissions scenarios are Coast Scenic Rim City compared with historical Regional Council Council climate records. New South Wales SEQ_Map A regional profile Climate and Photo: Tourism Queensland landscape South East Queensland Key findings is home to the state’s capital, Brisbane, which has a sub-tropical Temperature climate. Rainfall in the region • Average annual temperature in SEQ has increased 0.4 °C is influenced both by tropical over the last decade (from 19.4 °C to 19.8 °C). systems from the north and fluctuations in the high pressure • Projections indicate an increase of up to 4 °C by 2070; leading ridge to the south. to annual temperatures well beyond those experienced over the last 50 years. South East Queensland is • By 2070, Amberley may have more than three times the number Australia’s fastest growing region. of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 12 per year The population of SEQ is heavily to 41 per year), Brisbane may have six times the number of urbanised and is generally hot days (increasing from an average of one per year to an average concentrated along the coast of six per year) and Tewantin may have nearly four times the between Noosa and Coolangatta. number of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of three The metropolitan areas of the per year to an average of 11 per year by 2070). Brisbane Statistical Division, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast Statistical Districts account for 90 per cent Rainfall of the region’s population. • Average annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly 16 per cent compared with the previous 30 years. This is generally The SEQ Regional Plan identifies consistent with natural variability experienced over the last around 80 per cent of the region 110 years, which makes it difficult to detect any influence of as Regional Landscape and Rural climate change at this stage. Production Area. The coastline • Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an of this region supports diverse annual increase of 17 per cent to a decrease of 30 per cent by 2070. values and resources, including The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decrease biodiversity, scenic amenity, under all emissions scenarios. outdoor recreation, economic activities and cultural heritage. Evaporation • Projections indicate annual potential evaporation could increase Demographics 6–16 per cent by 2070. In 2007, the region’s population was 2 922 832 and is projected Extreme events to increase beyond 4 100 000 by 2026. • The 1-in-100-year storm tide event is projected to increase by 44 cm at Wellington Point, 42 cm in Noosa and 35 cm at Surfers Paradise (OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008) if certain conditions eventuate. These conditions are a 30 cm sea-level rise, a 10 per cent increase in cyclone intensity and frequency, as well as a 130 km shift southwards in cyclone tracks. SEQ2 ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland Important industries Understanding the climate of the region and how it changes Tourism in SEQ contributes more than $3.7 billion to Queensland’s Queensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate change growing economy and directly will lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the risk employs more than 61 000 people. of human-induced climate change requires an understanding of the The number of international current climate using historical data and future climate scenarios. visitors is growing by almost These future scenarios are prepared using data from Global eight per cent a year. Protecting Climate Models. the ecologically rich wilderness and natural attractions of the region is therefore an Method important focus of sustainable tourism development. Historical climate data Historical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Infrastructure needed to were aggregated across the SEQ region. The fluctuations and trends support the future development in the observed data are presented including extremes in temperature of the region has been identified and the frequency of cyclones. in order to manage future growth patterns and inform the implementation and review of Greenhouse emission scenarios the SEQ Infrastructure Plan and The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Program. Across the region, water established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and energy will continue to be in 1988. The IPCC assesses the latest scientific, technological and a key focus of sustainable socio-economic literature on climate change. management efforts. To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on The majority of the region’s Queensland, climate change projections were developed using the agricultural area is used for beef IPCC low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gas farming, with some dairy farming emissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapid located on productive grazing land. shift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B) The rich alluvial soils along the scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. The valleys in the west and south of the high (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels. region—including the Brisbane, Lockyer, Fassifern and the Albert- Greenhouse gas emissions are currently tracking above the highest Logan valleys—support a vast array IPCC emissions scenario (A1FI). The low and medium scenarios are of cropping industries. Closer to the presented to show the potential benefits of action to reduce coast, horticultural and cropping greenhouse gas emissions. industries thrive in the Gold Coast, Redlands, Glass House Mountains Climate change projections and Sunshine Coast districts. Queensland climate change projections were produced by the A range of industry sectors are Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation represented in the SEQ region, (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on the results for example, manufacturing, from 23 Global Climate Models. Projections were provided for 2030, aviation and aerospace, 2050 and 2070. However, as the climate can vary significantly from biotechnology, professional and one year to the next, these projections show changes in average business services, information climate for three future 30-year periods centered on 2030, 2050 and and communications technology, 2070. Sea-level rise is also considered. food and agribusiness, tourism, marine, mining technologies, and pharmaceuticals. (Extracted from the South East Queensland Regional Plan) ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland SEQ3 Current climate The increase in annual maximum temperature is presented in Figure 1. The trend over time is Temperature (BoM, 2008) represented by the black line in each graph. The change in maximum temperatures is greater in the Historical temperature records indicate the average winter, with the average over the last decade temperature in the SEQ region has risen, with this increasing by 1.3 °C averaged compared to the increase accelerating over the last decade (1998– 1961–1990 average. 2007). The average annual temperature was 19.4 °C in the 30 year period from 1971–2000, which is a 0.2 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. However, over the Temperature extremes (BoM, 2008) last decade it has risen by a further 0.4 °C, suggesting Extremes in temperature (such as a number of days an accelerated rise in temperature. exceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do not extend past a couple of days. Due to the influence of regional topography, proximity to the ocean and Average maximum temperature has risen prevailing winds, location-specific data are required in the South East Queensland region when considering changes in these extreme events over time. 28 Annual Due to its inland location, Amberley (Figure 2) 27 26 25.6 currently experiences more extreme temperature 25 24.6 days than coastal Tewantin (Figure 3). 24 31 Summer 30 29.5 The number of days over 35 ˚C has risen 29 28.6 in Amberley 28 27 28 Autumn 27 26 26.0 25 mperature (°C) 24.9 Te 25 24 20 23 Winter 22 15 Maximum Maximum 21 21.0 20 19.7 10 19 28 °C 35 > days of Number Spring 5 27 26 26.2 0 25 25.2 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 24 Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year FigureFIGURE 2: RS_SEQ_2 Number of days where the temperature FIGURE RS_SEQ_1 exceeded 35 ˚C for Amberley Figure 1: Historical annual and seasonal maximum temperatures for the South East Queensland region Blank spaces are those years where the maximum for the period 1950–2007, compared to the base temperature did not exceed 35 ˚C. period 1961–1990 ‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not available (i.e. the actual values may in fact be greater than what The black line is a five-year running average. is shown). The mean for both the baseline of 1961–1990 and the last decade 1998–2007 are shown by the green lines and Data source: BoM, 2008 indicated numerically at the right of the graph. Note: vertical scales may differ between graphs. Data source: BoM, 2008 SEQ4 ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland No observable change in the number of days over Figure 4 shows the dominant summer rainfall pattern, 35 ˚C in Tewantin with a 1961–1990 average rainfall of around 440 mm, compared to an autumn average (the next most 10 dominant rainfall period) of around 320 mm.
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