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Final Report: Empirical Assessment of Domestic Radicalization (EADR) Author(S): Michael Jensen, Ph.D., Gary Lafree, Ph.D

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Final Report: Empirical Assessment of Domestic Radicalization (EADR) Author(S): Michael Jensen, Ph.D., Gary Lafree, Ph.D The author(s) shown below used Federal funding provided by the U.S. Department of Justice to prepare the following resource: Document Title: Final Report: Empirical Assessment of Domestic Radicalization (EADR) Author(s): Michael Jensen, Ph.D., Gary LaFree, Ph.D. Document Number: 250481 Date Received: December 2016 Award Number: 2012-ZA-BX-0005 This resource has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. This resource is being made publically available through the Office of Justice Programs’ National Criminal Justice Reference Service. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Final Report: Empirical Assessment of Domestic Radicalization (EADR) Report to the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice Principal Investigator: Michael Jensen, Ph.D. Co-Principal Investigator: Gary LaFree, Ph.D. Project Manager: Patrick A. James, M.A. Project Researchers: Anita Atwell-Seate, Ph.D. Daniela Pisoiu, Ph.D. John Stevenson, Ph.D. Herbert Tinsley, M.A. Grant Manager: John Picarelli, Ph.D. December 2016 This resource was prepared by the author(s) using Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice 2 About This Report This report is part of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) project, “Empirical Assessment of Domestic Radicalization (EADR),” led by Michael Jensen, START, University of Maryland. All questions about this report should be sent to: [email protected]. This project was supported by Award No. 2012 -ZA-BX-0005, awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Justice. About START The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is supported in part by the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security through a Center of Excellence program led by the University of Maryland. START uses state-of-the-art theories, methods and data from the social and behavioral sciences to improve understanding of the origins, dynamics and social and psychological impacts of terrorism. For more information, contact START at [email protected] or visit www.start.umd.edu. Acknowledgements For helpful comments/assistance on the project, the authors thank Gary Ackerman, William Braniff, Peter Henne, Omi Hodwitz, John Kennedy, Richard Magill, John Picarelli, Charles Ragin, Aaron Safer-Lichtenstein, John Sawyer, Anna Tan and NIJ’s reviewers. The authors would also like to acknowledge the data collection contributions of Bria Ballard, Erin Copland, Sara Shirvan, and START’s student interns. This resource was prepared by the author(s) using Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice 3 Contents About This Report .................................................................................................................................................... 2 About START ............................................................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................. 2 List of Tables and Figures ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 5 Project Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Project Design and Data Collection Methods ........................................................................................... 8 Data Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 12 Project Findings ...................................................................................................................................................... 14 Part I: Ideological Comparisons .................................................................................................................. 15 Problem statement ....................................................................................................................................... 15 Descriptive comparison of ideological groups ................................................................................. 15 Implications .................................................................................................................................................... 24 Part II: Explaining Violent Extremism ...................................................................................................... 27 Problem Statement ...................................................................................................................................... 27 Theoretical rationale ................................................................................................................................... 28 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................... 31 Structure of the Dependent Variable ................................................................................................... 31 Structure of the Independent Variables ............................................................................................. 32 Control Variables .......................................................................................................................................... 35 Missing Data Techniques ........................................................................................................................... 36 Empirical Results and Discussion .......................................................................................................... 38 Part III: Radicalization Pathways ............................................................................................................... 46 Problem Statement ...................................................................................................................................... 46 Theoretical Rationale .................................................................................................................................. 46 Conceptual Constructs ................................................................................................................................ 49 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................... 53 Results ............................................................................................................................................................... 62 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................................ 70 Implications for CVE .................................................................................................................................... 73 Implications for Criminal Justice Policy in the United States ............................................................. 74 Suggestions for Future Research .................................................................................................................... 77 Appendices ............................................................................................................................................................... 79 Appendix 1: Rates of missingness for variables in logistic regression models ...................... 79 Appendix 2: Missing data techniques for quantitative analysis ................................................... 80 Appendix 3: Bivariate correlations between variables in logistic regression model .......... 83 Appendix 4: Regression model for cases 2000-2015 ........................................................................ 85 Appendix 5: Regression model excluding environmental and animal rights extremists .. 86 Appendix 6: Case Membership in Solution Paths ................................................................................ 87 Appendix 7: Qualitative codebook ............................................................................................................. 91 Appendix 8: Case Membership in Solution Paths – raw data ...................................................... 100 Appendix 9: Raw data for fs/QCA analysis .........................................................................................
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