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Industries in 2018

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Industries in 2018 Industries in 2018 A special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit www.eiu.com/industry The world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have 70 years’ experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The world’s leading organisations rely on our subscription service for its data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. We specialise in: • Country Analysis: Access to regular, detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts, as well as assessments of the business and regulatory environments in different markets. • Risk Analysis: Our risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world and help our clients understand the implications for their organisations. • Industry Analysis: Five year forecasts, analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major economies. These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis industry trends. EIU Consulting EIU Consulting is a bespoke service designed to provide solutions specific to our customers’ needs. We specialise in these key sectors: • Consumer: Providing data-driven solutions for consumer-facing industries, we and our management consulting firm, EIU Canback, help clients to enter new markets and be successful in current markets. • Healthcare: Together with our two specialised consultancies, Bazian and Clearstate, The EIU helps healthcare organisations build and maintain successful and sustainable businesses across the healthcare ecosystem. • Public Policy: Trusted by the sector’s most influential stakeholders, our global public policy practice provides evidence- based research for policy-makers and stakeholders seeking clear and measurable outcomes. The Economist Corporate Network The Economist Corporate Network (ECN) is The Economist Group’s advisory service for organisational leaders seeking to better understand the economic and business environments of global markets. Delivering independent, thought-provoking content, ECN provides clients with the knowledge, insight, and interaction that support better-informed strategies and decisions. The Network is part of The Economist Intelligence Unit and is led by experts with in-depth understanding of the geographies and markets they oversee. The Network’s membership-based operations cover Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry- focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends. INDUSTRIES IN 2018: A special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit Contents Overview 2 The global economy in 2018 8 Automotive: Double challenge 9 Company plans for 2018 15 2018 calendar: Automotive 17 Consumer goods/retail: Apocalypse? No 19 Company plans for 2018 23 2018 calendar: Consumer goods 25 Energy: Sustainable momentum 27 Company plans for 2018 31 2018 calendar: Energy 33 Financial services: The future arrives 34 Company plans for 2018 39 2018 calendar: Financial services 41 Healthcare: Delicate operations 42 Company plans for 2018 47 2018 calendar: Healthcare and pharmaceuticals 49 Telecoms: Throttled? 50 Company plans for 2018 54 2018 calendar: Telecoms 56 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2017 1 INDUSTRIES IN 2018: A special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit Overview raditional business models will come under strain amid sweeping changes, many driven by technology. Despite the decent economic con- T ditions, political risk will hang heavily over investment decisions. Each year The Economist Intelligence Unit issues a report forecasting how six industry sectors will develop globally over the coming year. This year’s report, which gives our forecasts for 2018, highlights how old ways of making money are fast going out of fashion. Perhaps the starkest example of this is in retailing, where online selling is dramatically disrupting the traditional shopping culture. That industry is not alone. Telecoms companies are facing new challenges from technology players, heightening already fierce competition, while established players in carmaking and energy are struggling to adapt to the rise of clean technologies. Pharmaceutical companies face pricing and patenting dilemmas, while regulators are redoubling pressure on financial services companies. Companies will need to shake up their business models in 2018 to respond to these pressures. However, planning is easier than execution. New regulations, new competitors and new consumer demands will emerge during the year ahead in many markets, while the business environment will develop in ways that may be hard to predict. High levels of political risk will also complicate matters in each of our six industries: automotive; consumer goods and retail; energy; financial services; healthcare; and telecoms. At least global economic conditions will not be bad—although not quite as good as in 2017 (see p8). This report sets out some of the challenges that lie ahead, but first, here are some noteworthy forecasts from Industries in 2017: l We said that investment in self-driving cars would take on a new impetus. It did: in October 2017 the US government approved a bill that would speed up the development of self-driving cars by exempting them from federal safety standards. 2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2017 INDUSTRIES IN 2018: A special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit Solid: Real GDP growth at market exchange rates (%) 2017 estimate 2018 forecast 8 8 7 7.7 7 6 6.7 6.8 6 5.8 5 5 4 4 3 3 2.9 2 2.7 2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1 1.6 1.6 1 1.3 0 0.7 41 0 India China Brazil US Euro area Russia Japan World Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. l We predicted that bricks-and-mortar giants would ramp up their online of- ferings while online shops would make headway in opening physical stores. Walmart has made a series of acquisitions to expand online, and in February Amazon announced the purchase of Whole Foods, marking a push into grocer- ies. l The election of Donald Trump, we said, would slow the global transition to cleaner energy but not reverse it. So it has proved. Mr Trump has announced the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, while China and Europe are steadfastly ploughing on with their decarbonisation efforts. l Despite fears to the contrary, we predicted that the election of the new US administration would not dramatically roll back financial regulations, nor derail the phasing-in of the Basel III regulations globally. Events to date have proved us right. l We forecast that India would finally produce a new version of its national health policy. The document came out in March 2017 and aims to more than double public health spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2025. l We said that Samsung would face a tough battle to overcome the damage done to its reputation by its combustible Galaxy Note 7 phones. In fact, its repu- tational problems worsened in August 2017 when its chief executive was jailed for bribery. However, the smooth launch of the Galaxy Note 8 still allowed the company to expand its market share. © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2017 3 INDUSTRIES IN 2018: A special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit The year ahead In 2018 the automotive industry will see sales growth in all but eight of the 60 countries we cover, yet the industry will face huge challenges in its biggest markets, the US and China. Aggressive new targets on electric vehicles (EVs) in China will force the pace of their rollout worldwide. Governments will adjust the way in which they deploy incentives to spur take-up of EVs: a mix of congestion charges, parking permits and other measures will start to supplement or even supplant traditional subsidies. This will bring opportunities for carmakers, but also threats. EV development will require heavy investment, and it may not pay off for all carmakers. In China, for instance, local conditions favour domestic players, while elsewhere the plethora of new launches will lead to tough competition. This will be far from the only big call on automakers’ cash in 2018. The development of connected-car technology is gathering pace, as are the regulations to support it. Ride-sharing companies such as Uber have also entered the connected-car arena, but face pushback from regulators who dislike their unconventional business models. For the auto industry as a whole, rising trade barriers will be another dampening factor in 2018. On this front, the US’s desire to renegotiate the North Atlantic Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the greatest risk. The outlook for consumer goods and retail firms looks brighter—but only superficially. Sales volumes will grow by 2.5% in 2018, just slightly slower than in 2017. Bright spots will include the opening-up of markets such as Vietnam and Iran, but not everywhere will benefit. Among the countries facing a sales downturn is the UK, where Brexit will finally bite. E-tailers are also likely to thrive more than bricks-and-mortar stores in both developed and developing markets. Alibaba, China’s e-tailing giant, will continue to report strong growth, while Amazon (US) is set for another year of aggressive expansion despite regulatory scrutiny: 2018 may even bring a push into ready-to-eat meals.
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