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A Model to Examine the Us Requirements and Priorities Process and Its Impact on the Outcome of National Security and Foreign Policy Events

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A Model to Examine the Us Requirements and Priorities Process and Its Impact on the Outcome of National Security and Foreign Policy Events REQUIREMENTS, PRIORITIES, AND MANDATES: A MODEL TO EXAMINE THE US REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES PROCESS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE OUTCOME OF NATIONAL SECURITY AND FOREIGN POLICY EVENTS A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy By Neveen Shaaban Abdalla Brunel Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies Brunel University January 2017 ABSTRACT Historically in the United States, after-action investigations have consistently accused the intelligence community of early warning in foreign policy and national security events. However, closer inspection shows that the intelligence community does provide timely and actionable estimates—when it is directed to do so. In some instances, the root cause of failure does not lie within the intelligence community. Rather, it is due to a malfunction in the Requirements and Priorities (R&P) process, a mechanism that integrates intelligence and policy communities. The R&P provides the “mandate” for the intelligence community— it delivers a ranking of intelligence priorities, and informs resource distribution, interagency cooperation, and operational authorisations for federal intelligence agencies. The R&P process has been highlighted consistently as a systemic weakness, has undergone numerous changes, and remains a source of tribulation. Yet it is rarely addressed, and absent from after-action investigations. The impact of the R&P becomes most visible when urgent, unexpected issues arise in low priority areas. These events force a “mandate shift” – a rapid escalation of the issue to a higher priority, commanding an immediate realignment of mandate-level functions. Faults in any component of the mechanism can delay or restrict critical actions, and often as manifest as errors of intelligence collection or analysis. These “symptoms” are often misdiagnosed as the root cause, leading to accusations of intelligence failure. This research sets forth a model to observe the impact of the R&P on the outcome of foreign policy and national security events, while simultaneously investigating core functions of the intelligence and policy communities. This R&P-centric model is applied to three cases of social movement escalation: el Bogotázo (1948), the Iranian Revolution (1979), and the Rwandan Genocide (1994). The cases trace the R&P structure at the time, to examine how faults in the R&P can impact the intelligence community’s ability to provide early warning, and influence the overall outcome. i | P a g e TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................................................... I TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................ II TABLE OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................... IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................................... V CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 WHITHER THE FIREWALL ........................................................................................................................................... 4 The Firewall Manipulation ............................................................................................................................. 5 Amorphous definitions of success and failure ................................................................................................ 7 Contextualising the R&P among intelligence texts ...................................................................................... 10 BRINGING REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES OUT OF THE SHADOWS ................................................................................. 13 APPLICATION OF AN R&P-CENTRIC MODEL ................................................................................................................. 16 ASSESSING SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: HYPOTHESES FOR INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY FAILURE ..................................................... 17 The Complex Nature of Social Movements .................................................................................................. 18 Weaknesses in the R&P mechanism ............................................................................................................ 21 THESIS OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................. 22 CHAPTER TWO: MECHANICS OF THE REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES PROCESS .......................................... 27 DESTROYING THE FIREWALL: DEBUNKING THE BINARY CONSTRUCT ................................................................................. 27 UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISM: UNPACKING THE REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES PROCESS .......................................... 33 COLLECTING AND DETERMINING INTELLIGENCE REQUESTS ............................................................................................. 34 BUDGET AND RESOURCES ....................................................................................................................................... 36 INTERAGENCY COOPERATION ................................................................................................................................... 41 OPERATIONAL AUTHORISATION AND OVERSIGHT ......................................................................................................... 43 A COMPLEX, FRAGILE PROCESS ................................................................................................................................. 45 CHAPTER THREE: A HISTORY OF REQUIREMENTS AND PRIORITIES, AND AN ANALYTIC MODEL ..................... 46 THE DCI, COORDINATION, AND RELATIONSHIPS .......................................................................................................... 46 A MOBIUS STRIP OF REFORM .................................................................................................................................. 49 KIQs and NITs: Attempts at Optimisation .................................................................................................... 52 Changes: The Cold War Ends, The War on Terror Begins ............................................................................. 60 TOWARD OPTIMISING INVESTIGATION: A MODEL ........................................................................................................ 65 CHAPTER FOUR: METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................... 71 PROCESS TRACING ................................................................................................................................................. 71 PROCEDURE: THEORY-TESTING PROCESS TRACING....................................................................................................... 75 CASE STUDY SELECTION .......................................................................................................................................... 81 EVIDENCE COLLECTION AND VALIDITY ........................................................................................................................ 86 ii | P a g e CHAPTER FIVE: EL BOGOTÁZO, 1948 .............................................................................................................. 90 TINDERBOX: POLITICAL UNREST IN COLOMBIA ............................................................................................................ 93 THE PREVAILING ARGUMENTS ................................................................................................................................. 95 TRACING THE R&P PROCESS UP TO EL BOGOTÁZO ....................................................................................................... 96 Latin America amongst US Priorities............................................................................................................ 98 The Mandate Shift...................................................................................................................................... 100 Release of Resources .................................................................................................................................. 101 Interagency Cooperation ........................................................................................................................... 102 Operational Authorisations ........................................................................................................................ 105 Intelligence Functions ................................................................................................................................ 105 Policymaker Response ................................................................................................................................ 106 Outcome ..................................................................................................................................................... 108 Discussion ................................................................................................................................................... 108 CHAPTER SIX: IRANIAN REVOLUTION, 1979 ................................................................................................
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