The Impacts of the Climate Change in the Coastal Areas. the Case Study of South Pieria
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The Impacts of the Climate Change in the Coastal Areas. The case study of South Pieria Evaggelos Baltas1, Maria Nikou2*, Vaios Kotsios3 1 Associate Professor, National University of Athens, Greece 2 PhD Student, Department of Planning and Regional Development, University of Thessaly, Greece 3 PhD Candidate, MSc National Technical University of Athens, Greece, MSc Aegean University, Adjunct Academic Stuff MIRC of NTUA, Greece *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Sea level changes are typically caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. According to the IPCC projections, global average sea level is expected to rise, through the twenty-first century, between 0.18 and 0.86 cm. Such a rise in sea level will significantly impact coastal areas, especially of lowland, areas with very low altitude which have a coastal residential development with a variety of economic activities. The paper intends to identify, how will affect the sea level rise the coastal areas of Platamonas and Neoi Poroi at South Pieria. The inundation model based upon most recent scenarios of SLR, by the year 2100 using GIS. The results indicate that coastal area of Platamonas will be affected by a SLR up to 1m. The SLR will affect part of the shoreline and the coastal area. On the other hand the coastal area of Neoi Poroi shows a high vulnerability at the SLR. By 2100 the whole region will be inundation by a SLR up to 1m. Key Words: Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, IPCC, Inundation, Coastal Areas Introduction In recent years, there is huge concern about the global climate and the earths’ climate balance which is influenced by several changes. It is recognized that climate change and sea level rise will impact seriously upon the natural and human society in coastal zone. The rise of the frequency of storms and floods has some serious impacts particularly affecting the coastal zone. As case study the coastal settlements of Platamonas and Neoi Poroi at South Pieria have been studied. The low topography of the whole area makes it very vulnerable to a future sea level rise. Expected Sea Level Scenarios It is fact that the complexity of provisioning the sea level rise led scientists to several disagreements and disputes on the results of various mathematical models and studies. The scientific community, to show the difficulty of estimates the sea level rise, called it as a "sea level enigma" (Chang, 2013). Sea level changes caused by several natural phenomena, including ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt form Greenland and Antarctica (Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Main factors that cause the sea level to change Source: Rahmstorf, 2010 The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (AR4) suggested that sea level is projected to rise in the range of 0.18 and 0.59 meters up to the year 2100. Many researchers believe that the estimates of the IPCC 2007 is quite moderate and conservative whereas the projection of IPCC 2001 best approached the reality (SLR scenarios from 0.09 to 0.88 meters by 2100) (Fig. 2). Fig. 2. Sea level rise scenarios Sea Level Rise (metres) American Institutes for Research US Army Corps of Engineers Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme ΝΟΑΑ Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Delta Commission of the Dutch government National Research Committee - NRC Vermeer and Rahmstorf Pfeffe Sea Level Rise (metres) Church and White Church and Gregory World Council Climate – WCC IPCC 2013 IPCC 2001 IPCC 2007 0 1 2 3 4 The recent SLR derived from the IPCC's fifth Assessment Report which estimated that for the period 2080-2100 the sea lever rise will range from 0.26 meters to 0.82 meters (see tab. 3) and it is higher estimated than the projections in the fourth Assessment Report (0.18 meters to 0.59 meters) (see. pic. 2). However, more recent studies, at global level, have suggested higher global SLR by the year 2100, ranging between 0.8 and 2 meters (Pfeffer et el.) and 0.5-1.4 meters (Rahmstorf, 2007). Case Study The coastal settlements of Platamonas and Neoi Pori belongs to the municipal district of East Olympus in Pieria. The study area is defined by three important natural places, the Olympus mountains foothills, the Thermaikos Gulf and the delta of Pineios river (Fig. 3.) Fig 3: Geographical position of the study area Source: geodata.gov.gr The geographical position of the region is a very important factor, as it is located on the vertical road axis of the country's development. It is crossed by the major transport networks, the motorway Patras-Athens-Thessaloniki - Evzoni (P.A.TH.E) and the Railway Line. The central location of the area in combination with the accessibility, the natural and historical wealth are the determining factors for the tourism development. The study area is characterized by very low elevations and especially the settlement of Neoi Poroi which is a lowland area, with flat ground without elevations. The plain which located in the area after the boundary of Platamonas reaches up to the plain of Peinios River Delta. An advantage for the area is the sandy beach which is the largest in the coastal zone. Main disadvantage for the area is the wetland environment that is not suitable for habitation. Regarding land use, receives a residence use, b residence use, tourism, commerce and recreation and both settlements have been built in their entirety. Fig. 4. Google earth maps of the study area Source: Google earth maps Methodology As first priority concern was to define the reference level of analysis (e.g. national, regional, local). A basic requirement for the analysis of flooding impacts was the development of a spatial dataset. Elevation data was extracted from a topography map of 1:5.000. A digital elevation model (DEM) was generated from the interpolation of elevation data by triangular irregular network (TIN). GIS software was used to make the DEM, to classify and map the typology of land threatened by inundation. The estimates for future sea level rise used in this paper were those by IPCC. The first inundation model used the SLR by the IPCC 2007 and the second inundation model was based on the SLR of IPCC 2014. The accuracy of these models is based on two factors, on the SLR and the contours lines. However, there are other factors which are not examined in this paper, such as soil composition, elements of the usual ascents of waves in the winter etc. So, it should be mentioned that the projected inundation areas can be smaller or larger. Table 1: IPCC scenarios of sea level rise SLR scenarios (m) 2050 2100 IPCC 2007 0,28 0,59 IPCC 2014 0,38 0,82 Source: IPCC 2007, IPCC 2014 Results and Discussion Using the DEM based on the contours and elevation points, was indicated that the coastal area of the study area has a very low altitude. This was confirmed by the slope map of the study area, which indicated that the elevation in the whole area and especially in the southern area of Neoi Poroi are quite low in the range of 0-3% Fig.5. Slope map of the study area Three inundation models were chosen to which were based on a) the results of the SLR of the 4th Assessment Report (IPCC 2007), the results of the SLR of the 5th Assessment Report (IPCC 2014), estimates by the scientific community. In order to show and measure the impacts of the sea level rise, the models were applied on a land use map and a googlearth satellite map of the area. Concerning the sea-level-rise scenarios are as follows: • In long term, part of the population of the study area will probably be forced to relocate. The problem of relocation will face the resident of the settlement of Neoi Poroi as the area is high vulnerable to the minimum SLR and the residents of the buildings area near the coastline in the settlement of Platamonas. A SLR of 1m and 2m will affect the entire population of the settlement of Neoi Poroi and the population of the settlements of Kastri, Nea Messagala, which are characterized with a very low altitude and they are building areas upon the Delta of Peinios river. Fig. 6. Land area vulnerable to flooding • All the three models indicated, that the settlement of Neoi Poroi appears high vulnerable to a SLR for the year 2050. Due to the extremely low elevations of the area, almost 1/5 of the population will be in danger and part of the forest and agricultural land will be inundated. • Part of the shoreline and the coastal zone of the area will be affected in a SLR of 0,89m (IPCC 2014), 1m. and 2m. • As regards the infrastructures of the area, section of the port, the coastal road and the old railway line will be affected. • It is important to mention that these projections of SLR will affect the region of the delta of the Peinios River at the South of the settlement of Neoi Poroi. Taken into consideration the lowlands of the area and the wetlands the impact of the SLR will be much bigger. Table 2: Land loss due to the SLR Period time of SLR IPCC 2007 IPCC 2013 Other estimates SLR (m) Land loss SLR Land loss SLR Land loss (Acre) (Acre) (m) (Acre) 2050 0,29 134 0,38 160 1 670 2100 0.59 200 0,82 300 2 1.070 Strategies and adaptation Measures and strategies to counteract the effects of the climate change may be divided into time horizons based on the intensity of the phenomenon and the intensity of the consequences.