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A Quarterly Bulletin of the Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation Applications Center (PEAC) Providing Information on Climate

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A Quarterly Bulletin of the Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation Applications Center (PEAC) Providing Information on Climate 2nd Quarter, 2007 Vol. 13, No. 2 ISSUED: APRIL 26, 2007 A Quarterly Bulletin of the Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation Applications Center (PEAC) Providing Information on Climate Variability for the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso CURRENT CONDITIONS El Niño conditions in the ocean abruptly ended at the tion of rainfall is anticipated for the next three months. Rainfall beginning of February 2007, and oceanic and atmospheric forecasts issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center for Ha- circulation patterns are now in an ENSO-neutral state. waii give equal chances of below average, near average, or Some of the islands in the RMI, Chuuk State, and Guam have above average rainfall through early summer . experienced very dry conditions for some or all of the past three Sea-level variation in the USAPI is sensitive to ENSO- months. Three-month rainfall totals were less than half of nor- cycle, with low sea-level observed during El Niño and high sea- mal at some locations in the northern RMI (see figures 1a, 1b). level during La Niña years. Consistent with the transition from Other island groups have had adequate to abundant rainfall. ENSO-neutral to La Niña conditions, observations reveal that Three-month rainfall totals exceeded 125% of normal at some the sea level has already started to record a rise this year as most locations in Chuuk State, Pohnpei State, American Samoa, and locations across the USAPI have recorded moderate positive (surprisingly) Saipan. The 51.67 inches of rainfall at American deviations. Samoa during the first three months of 2007 was the highest The following comments from the EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN recorded value in the USAPI, followed closely by the just-over OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION were 50 inches recorded in the same time period at Nukuoro in posted on the U.S. Climate Prediction Center web site on April Pohnpei State. The year’s first typhoon (Kong-Rey) formed 05, 2007: southwest of Pohnpei near the end of March, bringing substan- Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña condi- tial rainfall to locations in Pohnpei State, Chuuk State, and many tions is possible within the next 3 months. islands of the CNMI. It tracked too far north and east of Guam and Rota, however, to provide much relief to ongoing dryness “The pattern of anomalous sea surface temperatures there. (SSTs) during March 2007 was consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, with average to slightly below- Based on the anticipated demise of El Niño, below normal average SSTs extending from the date line to the west coast of rainfall was forecast throughout most of Micronesia and Hawaii South America. …” for the first quarter of 2007, while American Samoa was forecast to be wet. Widespread dryness did not occur, but more localized “The upper-ocean heat content remains below-average extreme dryness was experienced especially in the northern across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with tem- RMI, where it was so dry that emergency measures were needed peratures at thermocline depth generally 3°-5°C below average. to ensure adequate water supplies. Recently, some much-needed … Stronger than-average low-level easterly winds persisted rains have occurred to alleviate extreme dryness in the northern throughout the month of March over the central equatorial Pa- RMI. Persistent very dry weather on Guam has exacerbated the cific, and convection was enhanced over the western equatorial wildfire situation, with many hundreds of acres scorched in the Pacific and Indonesia and suppressed near the date line. Collec- southern grasslands. American Samoa was overall very wet in tively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions are consistent the first quarter of 2007. Only four tropical cyclones (Zita, Ar- with a trend towards a Pacific cold (La Niña) episode.” thur, TC 11P, and Becky,) formed in the South Pacific during “Most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, includ- the 1st quarter of 2007, and contrary to expectations, none of ing those from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indi- them affected American Samoa. cate additional anomalous surface cooling during the next sev- Many of the islands of Micronesia have now passed through eral months. Some forecast models, especially the CFS, indicate the heart of their dry seasons, and the slow northward march of a transition to La Niña during May-July 2007. This forecast is heavy convective rainfall has already begun. It is likely that the consistent with the observed trends in atmospheric and oceanic worst of persistent dryness is over for many of the islands of the conditions. However, the spread of the most recent statistical RMI that have been extremely dry. On some islands (especially and coupled model forecasts (ENSO-neutral to La Niña) indi- those north of 10º N), it is still anticipated that May and June cates considerable uncertainty as to when La Niña might de- will be drier than normal, but in general, a near-normal distribu- velop and how strong it might be.” Page 2 Pacific ENSO Update CURRENT CONDITIONS SST (Sea Surface Temperatures) Warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial strip across the central and eastern Pacific rapidly cooled during January 2007, and put an abrupt end to El Niño by February. During March 2007, the SST was consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, with average to slightly below-average SSTs extending from the date line to the west coast of South America. An area of an- omalously warm SSTs persisted well west of the date line (near 165ºE), and an area of SSTs exceeding 30°C was centered between 150° E and 165°E. Warm SST in this region may be responsible for the continuing heavy rainfall at Kapingamarangi. SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) The 6-month average of the Southern Oscillation Index was -0.9 during the second half of 2006. This is consistent with weak El Niño conditions present at that time. Since then, the SOI has risen slightly, and its values stood at -1.1, -0.5, and -0.4 during January, Febru- ary and March 2007, respec- 1a) tively. While the eastern equa- Rainfall 1st Quarter of 2007 70 torial Pacific Ocean temperature ) Total (Inches) anomalies have gone from warm S 60 E to cold during the first quarter of H 50 C 2007, the SOI has not reversed N I 40 sign, and remains in negative ( L 30 territory. If the ocean continues L A to cool, and La Niña conditions 20 F develop (as some computer N I 10 A models are now indicating), then R 0 the SOI should rise and become predominantly positive in the u i i l a r li o a iu O h a t il n t O B O t i o i e n je O i g l l S it e r H ia o S F a O ik r g a ei t M coming months. If ENSO- a a e l l o l n R S w S l o n sr l o S P P el W U o p a i W A W o W a u a ja W p W ir it T A l i P k r o a W neutral conditions prevail, then o P a A p m k o e u a K ro g Y a a m u P p N m w a n u a u n a K ju the SOI should fluctuate near P a C G u h h g a ip G C o n M a P i zero for the foreseeable future. S ap K Normally, positive values of the SOI in excess of +1.0 are associated with La Niña condi- 1b) Rainfall 1st Quarter 2007 17 5 tions, and negative values of the Percent of Normal 15 0 SOI below –1.0 are associated L with El Niño conditions. The A 12 5 SOI is an index representing the M R normalized sea level pressure O 10 0 N difference between Darwin, F 7 5 O Australia and Tahiti, respec- T tively. N 5 0 E C R 2 5 E Figure 1, left. 1st Quarter 2007 P 0 Rainfall (a) totals in inches and i i ll i (b) anomalies (expressed as per- o u u O h a rt i n ta O B O t O ir o i e in je O il g la li S t e H ia S F S a S k r g a t S a a e li l o l o w li o n r le o M cent of normal) at indicated sta- P l W U o p in R W A W o W a u a s a W P e ir ta T A l i k r o j W o P p W i k o e P a K a o g a A p m m u P u m w r tions. Red line indicates normal a Y n a a a u p N u a C u u n a K j P p G h h g a i G C o in M rainfall. Red circles indicate a P p S a K locations with rainfall anomalies less than 75% of normal. TROPICAL CYCLONE The PEAC archives western North Pacific tropical cyclone numbers, track coordinates, and 1-minute average maximum sustained wind taken from operational warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the U.
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