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The Politics of Ethnic Confrontation in Moldova

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The Politics of Ethnic Confrontation in Moldova TITLE: THE POLITICS OF ETHNIC CONFRONTATION IN MOLDOVA AUTHOR: William Crowther University of North Carolina THE NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR SOVIET AND EAST EUROPEAN RESEARCH 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 PROJECT INFORMATION:* CONTRACTOR: University of North Carolina PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: William Crowther COUNCIL CONTRACT NUMBER: 806-20 DATE: September 23, 1993 NCSEER NOTE This Report is the first of several papers on political attitudes and political change in Romania and Moldova. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Individual researchers retain the copyright on work products derived from research funded by Council Contract. The Council and the U.S. Government have the right to duplicate written reports and other materials submitted under Council Contract and to distribute such copies within the Council and U.S. Government for their own use, and to draw upon such reports and materials for their own studies; but the Council and U.S. Government do not have the right to distribute, or make such reports and materials available, outside the Council or U.S. Government without the written consent of the authors, except as may be required under the provisions of the Freedom of Information Act 5 U.S.C. 552, or other applicable law. The work leading to this report was supported by contract funds provided by the National Council for Soviet and East European Research. The analysis and interpretations contained in the report are those of the author. The Politics of Ethnic Confrontation in Moldova William Crowther The University of North Carolina at Greensboro Funding for the survey research that is cited in this paper was provided by a grant from the National Council for Soviet and East European Research; Contract number 806-20. SUMMARY: The Politics of Ethnic Confrontation in Moldova After a brief description of conditions in Moldova during the Soviet period, the following study outlines the evolution of inter-ethnic relations in the Republic of Moldova since the break up of the USSR. It makes use of data obtained through a National Council for Soviet and East European Research funded representative national survey of 1580 respondents in Moldova during the spring of 1992. It uses this data to explore both the polarization of attitudes that underlies the current inter-ethnic conflict, and the potential for reducing conflict by reorienting political debate along non-ethnic lines. As in other non-Russian regions of the USSR, Soviet policy produced a substantial degree of political alienation and ethnic in Moldova. This became all too evident in the upsurge of political activism that occurred in the context of Mikhial Gorbachev's efforts to reform the Soviet Union. The 1989 and 1990 elections held in the republic became the vehicle for ethnic mobilization and the construction of competing nationalist movements, epitomized by the Popular Front of Moldova on the side of the Romanian speaking community, and Edinstvo on the side of Russophone minorities in the republic. With the progressive collapse of Soviet power the Popular Front attained power at the level of the republic, and, like other similar republican leaderships, took action to assert their independence from Moscow. The efforts of Moldovan leaders to promote their national agenda, however, touched off counter mobilization by the russophone minorities that make up approximately 38% of the republic's population. By late 1990 secessionist forces had established control in Transdnestria and the Gagauz region, and had declared their independence from Moldova. By May 1992 tension had erupted into a full blown civil war that engaged both local forces and the Russian 14th army. In sharp contrast to the spiral into intensified violence that has characterized similar conflicts in the region, after several months of sporadic fighting Moldova drew back from civil war. During late 1992 a substantially more moderate leadership gained control of republican institutions, and the Popular Front was virtually banished from key positions. The conditions that underlie this surprising turn of events in an area marked by most analysts for political upheaval, are apparent in the survey data that is reported in detail in the following paper. The results do show strong difference of opinion separating the republic's main ethnic communities on sensitive issues of inter-ethnic relations, including minority rights, language policy, and the character of the republican sovereignty. But the data show just as strongly that a strong basis exists for consensus. (1) Support for extreme nationalist organizations is weak on both sides of the linguistic divide. (2) Among Romanian speakers, opinion in favor of reunification with Romania (a fundamental fear within the Russian speaking communities) is markedly weak. (3) The level of interaction between nationality groups is high, the rate of inter-marriage is high, bilingualism is common, particularly among Romanian speakers. (4) Finally, once one leaves expressly ethnic issues behind, key policy questions, such as reform and privatization, cut across nationality, establishing a basis for reorienting politics by searching out alterative lines of political association. Given these underlying attitudes within the mass population the possibly for the successful management of inter-ethnic tension by a competent political leadership seems appreciable. ii Introduction A diverse population and the political legacy of the Soviet period bequeathed to Moldova an extremely difficult situation as the republic's government entered into its post communist transition. Demands for redress arose from the majority nationality, as did demands by some members of the Moldovan community for reunification with Romania. Many members of Moldova's minority communities, for their part, saw the reordering of political life as immediately threatening to their basic economic and security interests. Democratization thus unleashed a sharp polarization of forces as early as 1989. Since that time sporadic inter-ethnic violence has plagued Moldova. 1991 saw the physical division of the republic by the creation of separatist regions, and the outbreak of open warfare between rival governments. Moldova's population is now faced with the difficult tasks of finding a formula to end the separatist conflict and of developing a new basis of civic accord. Worse, this task must be undertaken while economic crisis looms as a consequence of the collapse of the economic institutions of the former USSR, and while neighboring powers closely monitor Moldova's progress, intervening as their interests dictate. Background For most of its history the area between the Prut and Dnestr rivers that comprises the large bulk of the current Moldova Republic was the eastern half of the traditional principality of Moldova. Moldova was one of two main southeast European regions inhabited by Romanian speaking populations, the other being Walachia, to its west. An independent Moldovan principality including the territory of the present Moldova was established in the mid-14th century. During the second half of the 15th century it became a tributary state in the Ottoman empire. The bulk of the current Republic of Moldova, Bessarabia, was annexed by Russia following the Russo-Turkish war of 1806-1812 and incorporated into the Russian Empire.1 The territory changed hands once again in the early 20th century as a consequence of the First World War. With the old order collapsing, political leaders in Bessarabia declared Moldova independent on January 14, 1918. Soon afterward, on March 27, 1918, they voted to become once again part of Romania. 1 Soviet authorities constructed a new Moldavian political unit, the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic in October 1924 on the left bank of the Dnestr. Its territory included 14 raions which were partially inhabited by Romanians, and was administered as part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Its capital was originally located at the city of Balti, but was moved to Tiraspol in 1929. Moldova is concurrently in the throes of acute inter-ethnic conflict. In June 1940 Bessarabia was reoccupied by Soviet forces as a consequence of the Ribbentrop-Molotov agreement. The current Soviet Socialist Republic of Moldova was formed on August 2, 1940 out of the unification of most of Bessarabia and much (but not all) of the previous Moldovan ASSR. Some previously Moldovan territory to the north of the current republic and the area between the Dnestr and the Prut to the south, bordering on the Black Sea, was incorporated into the Ukraine, leaving the present Republic of Moldova landlocked. Moldova's geographic location and turbulent history affected both its population and its politics. Even in the feudal period, in addition to the majority Moldovans, the region was also populated by Ukrainians, Russians, Tatars, Greeks, Bulgarians, Serbs, Germans and Jews. In the 19th century Russia encouraged immigration by Bulgarians and Gagauz from the Balkan peninsula, and Germans.2 The post World War Two period saw further intense population change. From 1941 to 1959 the proportion of Russians in the population grew from approximately 6% to 10.%, and that of Ukrainians from 11% to 14%. The proportion of ethnic Romanians during the same years declined from 69% to 65%. Since the renewed population influx of these years was directed to urban areas the already significant role of non-Romanians in Moldova's cities increased. To generalize, the role of non-Romanians in the urban economy was reinforced, leaving Moldovans in less skilled and less highly paying occupations. The most concentrated Romanian population is found in the central region. In the north and on the left band of the Dnestr Romanian villages coexist with those of Russians and Ukrainians, and in the South with Gagauz and Bulgarians. This pattern of development, coupled with the circumstances of its integration into the USSR, made some degree of inter-ethnic antagonism in Moldova during the present transition likely in any event. But the intensity of hostility apparent since the mid-1980s also resulted from the nature of the Soviet government's policy toward the Moldovan population.
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