Security Council Provisional Fifty-Ninth Year
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Israel in 1982: the War in Lebanon
Israel in 1982: The War in Lebanon by RALPH MANDEL LS ISRAEL MOVED INTO its 36th year in 1982—the nation cele- brated 35 years of independence during the brief hiatus between the with- drawal from Sinai and the incursion into Lebanon—the country was deeply divided. Rocked by dissension over issues that in the past were the hallmark of unity, wracked by intensifying ethnic and religious-secular rifts, and through it all bedazzled by a bullish stock market that was at one and the same time fuel for and seeming haven from triple-digit inflation, Israelis found themselves living increasingly in a land of extremes, where the middle ground was often inhospitable when it was not totally inaccessible. Toward the end of the year, Amos Oz, one of Israel's leading novelists, set out on a journey in search of the true Israel and the genuine Israeli point of view. What he heard in his travels, as published in a series of articles in the daily Davar, seemed to confirm what many had sensed: Israel was deeply, perhaps irreconcilably, riven by two political philosophies, two attitudes toward Jewish historical destiny, two visions. "What will become of us all, I do not know," Oz wrote in concluding his article on the develop- ment town of Beit Shemesh in the Judean Hills, where the sons of the "Oriental" immigrants, now grown and prosperous, spewed out their loath- ing for the old Ashkenazi establishment. "If anyone has a solution, let him please step forward and spell it out—and the sooner the better. -
Palestinian Forces
Center for Strategic and International Studies Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy 1800 K Street, N.W. • Suite 400 • Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1 (202) 775 -3270 • Fax : 1 (202) 457 -8746 Email: [email protected] Palestinian Forces Palestinian Authority and Militant Forces Anthony H. Cordesman Center for Strategic and International Studies [email protected] Rough Working Draft: Revised February 9, 2006 Copyright, Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. May not be reproduced, referenced, quote d, or excerpted without the written permission of the author. Cordesman: Palestinian Forces 2/9/06 Page 2 ROUGH WORKING DRAFT: REVISED FEBRUARY 9, 2006 ................................ ................................ ............ 1 THE MILITARY FORCES OF PALESTINE ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 2 THE OSLO ACCORDS AND THE NEW ISRAELI -PALESTINIAN WAR ................................ ................................ .............. 3 THE DEATH OF ARAFAT AND THE VICTORY OF HAMAS : REDEFINING PALESTINIAN POLITICS AND THE ARAB - ISRAELI MILITARY BALANCE ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 4 THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY FORC ES ................................ ................................ .......... 5 Palestinian Authority Forces During the Peace Process ................................ ................................ ..................... 6 The -
Learning to Extract International Relations from Political Context
Learning to Extract International Relations from Political Context Brendan O’Connor Brandon M. Stewart Noah A. Smith School of Computer Science Department of Government School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Harvard University Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA Cambridge, MA 02139, USA Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract model of the relationship between a pair of polit- ical actors imposes a prior distribution over types We describe a new probabilistic model of linguistic events. Our probabilistic model in- for extracting events between major polit- fers latent frames, each a distribution over textual ical actors from news corpora. Our un- expressions of a kind of event, as well as a repre- supervised model brings together famil- sentation of the relationship between each political iar components in natural language pro- actor pair at each point in time. We use syntactic cessing (like parsers and topic models) preprocessing and a logistic normal topic model, with contextual political information— including latent temporal smoothing on the politi- temporal and dyad dependence—to in- cal context prior. fer latent event classes. We quantita- tively evaluate the model’s performance We apply the model in a series of compar- on political science benchmarks: recover- isons to benchmark datasets in political science. ing expert-assigned event class valences, First, we compare the automatically learned verb and detecting real-world conflict. We also classes to a pre-existing ontology and hand-crafted 1 conduct a small case study based on our verb patterns from TABARI, an open-source and model’s inferences. -
Suicide Terrorists in the Current Conflict
Israeli Security Agency [logo] Suicide Terrorists in the Current Conflict September 2000 - September 2007 L_C089061 Table of Contents: Foreword...........................................................................................................................1 Suicide Terrorists - Personal Characteristics................................................................2 Suicide Terrorists Over 7 Years of Conflict - Geographical Data...............................3 Suicide Attacks since the Beginning of the Conflict.....................................................5 L_C089062 Israeli Security Agency [logo] Suicide Terrorists in the Current Conflict Foreword Since September 2000, the State of Israel has been in a violent and ongoing conflict with the Palestinians, in which the Palestinian side, including its various organizations, has carried out attacks against Israeli citizens and residents. During this period, over 27,000 attacks against Israeli citizens and residents have been recorded, and over 1000 Israeli citizens and residents have lost their lives in these attacks. Out of these, 155 (May 2007) attacks were suicide bombings, carried out against Israeli targets by 178 (August 2007) suicide terrorists (male and female). (It should be noted that from 1993 up to the beginning of the conflict in September 2000, 38 suicide bombings were carried out by 43 suicide terrorists). Despite the fact that suicide bombings constitute 0.6% of all attacks carried out against Israel since the beginning of the conflict, the number of fatalities in these attacks is around half of the total number of fatalities, making suicide bombings the most deadly attacks. From the beginning of the conflict up to August 2007, there have been 549 fatalities and 3717 casualties as a result of 155 suicide bombings. Over the years, suicide bombing terrorism has become the Palestinians’ leading weapon, while initially bearing an ideological nature in claiming legitimate opposition to the occupation. -
Statistical Text Analysis for Social Science
Statistical Text Analysis for Social Science Brendan T. O’Connor August 2014 CMU-ML-14-101 Statistical Text Analysis for Social Science Brendan T. O’Connor August 2014 CMU-ML-14-101 Machine Learning Department School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA, USA Thesis Committee: Noah A. Smith, chair Tom Mitchell Cosma Shalizi Gary King, Harvard University Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy This work was supported by NSF CAREER IIS0644225, NSF CAREER IIS1054319, NSF grant IIS1211277, NSF grant IIS1251131, DARPA grant N10AP20042, IARPA contract D12PC00347, an Alfred P. Sloan grant, Mi- crosoft’s support for Machine Learning graduate students, Google’s support of the Worldly Knowledge project at Carnegie Mellon University, the Berkman Faculty Development Fund at Carnegie Mellon University, the Center for Applied Research in Technology at the Tepper School of Business, computing resources from the Open Source Data Cloud (Grossman et al. (2012), sponsored by the Open Cloud Consortium, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, the NSF, and the University of Chicago) and computing resources from the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center. Keywords: computational social science, natural language processing, text mining, quantitative text analysis, machine learning, probabilistic graphical models, Bayesian statistics, exploratory data analysis, social media, opinion polling, sociolinguistics, event data, international relations. 2 Abstract What can text corpora tell us about society? How can automatic text analysis algorithms efficiently and reliably analyze the social processes revealed in language production? This work develops statistical text analyses of dynamic social and news media datasets to ex- tract indicators of underlying social phenomena, and to reveal how social factors guide linguistic production. -
The Trump Peace Plan: Aiming Not to Make a Deal, but to Make a Deal Possible
1 COVER PAGE 2 THE BEGIN-SADAT CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES BAR-ILAN UNIVERSITY Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 175 The Trump Peace Plan: Aiming Not to Make a Deal, but to Make a Deal Possible Douglas J. Feith and Lewis Libby 3 The Trump Peace Plan—Aiming Not to Make a Deal, but to Make a Deal Possible Douglas J. Feith and Lewis Libby © The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Bar-Ilan University Ramat Gan 5290002 Israel Tel: 972-3-5318959 [email protected] www.besacenter.org ISSN 0793-1042 July 2020 Cover image: President Donald Trump unveils his peace plan for Israel and the Palestinians, Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead 4 The Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies is an independent, non-partisan think tank conducting policy-relevant research on Middle Eastern and global strategic affairs, particularly as they relate to the national security and foreign policy of Israel and regional peace and stability. It is named in memory of Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat, whose efforts in pursuing peace laid the cornerstone for conflict resolution in the Middle East. BESA Perspectives are short pieces on timely and fundamental Israeli, Middle Eastern, and global issues. Mideast Security and Policy Studies serve as a forum for publication or re- publication of research conducted by BESA associates. Colloquia on Strategy and Diplomacy summarize the papers delivered at conferences and seminars held by the Center for the academic, military, official, and general publics. In sponsoring these discussions, the BESA Center aims to stimulate public debate on, and consideration of, contending approaches to problems of peace and war in the Middle East. -
Uncertainty As a Condition for Change: the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Author(S): G
ArkPSA Arkansas Political Science Association ─────────────────────────────────────────────── Uncertainty as a Condition for Change: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Author(s): G. Dale Thomas Source: The Midsouth Political Science Review, Volume 15, Number 1 (2014), pp. 81-104 ISSN: 2330-6882 [print]; 2330-6890 [online] Published by: Arkansas Political Science Association Website: http://uca.edu/politicalscience/midsouth-political-science- review-mpsr/ ─────────────────────────────────────────────── Uncertainty as a Condition for Change: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict G. Dale Thomas American Public University System Ongoing conflicts often frustrate those who seek their peaceful conclusion as well as those who seek to force a suitable settlement on the opposing party. Thus, political leadership often has the willingness to pursue policies that can lead to dramatic changes, but they are frequently frustrated by a lack of opportunity. This paper examines the concept of uncertainty in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a condition for major change, where uncertainty refers to instabilities in dyadic conflict-cooperation flows between Israel and the Palestinians as measured by event data from 1985 to 2010. Four key hypotheses on the importance of uncertainty and exogenous shocks for introducing major initiatives are evaluated. The results indicate that the presence or absence of uncertainty in the system (both endogenous and exogenous) is an important indicator of opportunities to pursue a peaceful resolution as well as a possible early -
SOCS Poster.Graffle
Learning to Extract International Relations from News Text Presenter: Brendan O'Connor, Carnegie Mellon University Joint work with Brandon Stewart (political scientist at Harvard) and Noah Smith (CMU). Forthcoming at ACL 2013. See more: http://brenocon.com/irevents Event data in international relations Previous work: knowledge engineering What are the causes of war and peace? Do democracies engage in fewer wars? Why do some Besides manual coding (which is too labor-intensive at scale), previous work in political science crises spiral into conflict, but others are resolved peacefully? Can we forecast future conflicts? uses a knowledge engineering approach: a manually defined ontology of event types and 15,000 textual patterns to identify events -- this took decades of knowledge engineering to To help answer these questions, political scientists use event data: historical datasets of friendly construct. This is very difficult to maintain and must be completely rebuilt for new domains and hostile interactions between countries, as reported in news articles. How can we extract (e.g. domestic politics, commercial news, literature...) this structured information, from millions of news articles? We seek to automate some of this process: from the textual data, is it possible to automatically Left: visualization of GDELT data for the Syria conflict, which extracts events from news using learn the semantic event types, and extract meaningful real-world political dynamics? a knowledge engineering approach. http://gdelt.utdallas.edu Israeli−Palestinian -
Operation Enduring Freedom:* Legal Dimensions of an Infinitely Just Operation1
OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM:* LEGAL DIMENSIONS OF AN INFINITELY JUST OPERATION1 DR. BARRY A. FEINSTEIN** Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION .................................. 202 II. BACKGROUND ................................... 209 A. Suicide Terrorist Attacks Linked to Osama bin Laden and al-Qa’ida ....................... 209 B. Connection of Osama bin Laden and al-Qa’ida with Afghanistan ..................... 216 C. Goals, Ideology, and Methods of Osama bin Laden and al-Qa’ida ....................... 217 D. Diplomatic/Peaceful Means Used in Attempts to Halt Terrorist Activities of Osama bin Laden and al-Qa’ida ................................ 255 III. THE OBLIGATIONS AND RESPONSIBILITY OF AFGHANISTAN ACTING IN COMPLICITY WITH TERRORISTS AND TERROR ORGANIZATIONS UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW .......... 258 * The scope of this article is limited to a consideration of legal issues related to the use of armed force by the United States (“U.S.”) in States harboring, sheltering, supporting, aiding or abetting terrorists in the wake of the September 11, 2001 airline hijacking and subsequent airline suicide terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington and the hijacked suicide airline crash in rural Pennsylvania. The article does not purport to consider or examine moral, strategic or political aspects of American actions. A number of people who assisted in the preparation of this article deserve commendatory mention, particularly Naomi Kessler-Feinstein, Fortunee Habib, Rachel Kuglemass, David Kessler, Alon Mazaud, and Ari Finkelstein, Esq. Also, I would like to thank Professor David Koplow and Professor Steven Feinstein for their thoughts and inspiration, and Professor Jose’ Faur and Naftali Nahum for sharing with me their wisdom and insight. The opinions expressed herein by the author reflect his personal views alone and in no way are meant to represent official positions of any institution or entity, governmental or otherwise. -
The Palestinian Shahid and the Development of the Model 21St Century Islamic Terrorist
California State University, San Bernardino CSUSB ScholarWorks Theses Digitization Project John M. Pfau Library 2008 The Palestinian Shahid and the development of the model 21st century Islamic terrorist Benjamin Timothy Acosta Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project Part of the Terrorism Studies Commons Recommended Citation Acosta, Benjamin Timothy, "The Palestinian Shahid and the development of the model 21st century Islamic terrorist" (2008). Theses Digitization Project. 3367. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/3367 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the John M. Pfau Library at CSUSB ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses Digitization Project by an authorized administrator of CSUSB ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. THE PALESTINIAN SHAHID AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF 'THE MODEL 2.1st CENTURY ISLAMIC' TERRORIST A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of California State University, San Bernardino In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in National Security Studies by Benjamin Timothy Acosta June 2008 THE PALESTINIAN SHAHID AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MODEL 21st CENTURY ISLAMIC TERRORIST A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of California State University, San Bernardino by Benjamin Timothy Acosta June 2008 Approved by: Date © 2008 Benjamin T. Acosta ABSTRACT Since the early 1990s, Palestinian organizations have drawn from many sources and incrementally refined the process of suicide terrorism. By making the modus operandi socially acceptable and even fashionable, Palestinian organizations have normalized the deployment of suicide homicide bombers. These organizations have optimized the progress individuals take from reasoning and justifying to rationalizing and actually committing suicide terrorism. -
Predicting Suicide Attacks Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets
HOMELAND SECURITY AND DEFENSE CENTER CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Predicting Suicide Attacks Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets Walter L. -
Country Reports on Terrorism 2007
Country Reports on Terrorism 2007 April 2008 ________________________________ United States Department of State Publication Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism Released April 2008 1 Country Reports on Terrorism 2007 is submitted in compliance with Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656f (the ―Act‖), which requires the Department of State to provide to Congress a full and complete annual report on terrorism for those countries and groups meeting the criteria of the Act. COUNTRY REPORTS ON TERRORISM 2007 Table of Contents Chapter 1. Strategic Assessment Chapter 2. Country Reports Africa Overview Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership The African Union Angola Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Comoros Cote D‘Ivoire Djibouti Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Liberia Madagascar Mali Mauritania Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Somalia South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe East Asia and Pacific Overview Australia Burma Cambodia China o Hong Kong 2 o Macau Indonesia Japan Republic of Korea Laos Malaysia Mongolia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Europe Overview Albania Armenia Austria Azerbaijan Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Georgia Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Kosovo Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Malta Moldova The Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania 3 Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom o Northern Ireland Middle East and North Africa Overview Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iraq Israel, West Bank, and Gaza Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Tunisia United Arab Emirates Yemen South and Central Asia Overview Afghanistan Bangladesh India Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Western Hemisphere Overview Tri-Border Area Argentina 4 Belize Bolivia Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela Chapter 3.