Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2015-03 þÿU.S. strategic interests and Georgia s prospects for NATO membership Martel, Albert M. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/45221 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND GEORGIA’S PROSPECTS FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP by Albert M. Martel March 2015 Thesis Advisor: David S. Yost Second Reader: Mikhail Tsypkin Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March 2015 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND GEORGIA’S PROSPECTS FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP 6. AUTHOR(S) Albert M. Martel 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) Many observers in NATO and European Union (EU) countries hold that Russia is attempting to challenge the increasing Western influence in Central and Eastern Europe and reassert itself as a regional and global superpower. The 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine provide evidence in support of this theory. Twelve Central and Eastern European nations have nonetheless joined NATO since 1999, and others have pledged their membership aspirations. This fact alone suggests that a general fear of Russian aggression persists among Central and Eastern European nations, and that NATO enlargement is both justified and welcomed. This thesis examines Georgia’s prospects for NATO membership and assesses U.S. strategic interests in this regard. To accomplish this, this thesis analyzes Georgia’s geostrategic importance and investigates links between Georgian and U.S. foreign policies as they relate to NATO enlargement. As regards Georgia, the key questions concern the extent to which the United States supports Tbilisi’s candidacy for Alliance membership, and whether the United States and its NATO Allies are willing to accept the risks and responsibilities that would be incurred with Georgia’s NATO membership. This thesis concludes that U.S. decisions regarding Georgia’s candidacy for NATO membership will be of critical importance. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Georgia, Tbilisi, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, NATO, NATO enlargement, Partnership for Peace, PfP, PAGES International Partnership Action Plan, IPAP, Annual National Program, ANP, Planning and Review 85 Process, PARP, Membership Action Plan, MAP, NATO-Georgia Commission, NGC, NATO-Russia 16. PRICE CODE Council, 2008 Russia-Georgia Conflict, Rose Revolution, Mikheil Saakashvili, Bidzina Ivanishvili, Giorgi Margvelashvili, Georgian Dream, United National Movement, UNM, Eurasian Transport Corridor, Northern Distribution Network, U.S.-Georgia Charter on Strategic Partnership, Millennium Challenge Account, Freedom Consolidation Act , Georgia Train and Equip Program, GTEP, Sustainment and Stability Operations Program, SSOP, Georgia Deployment Program-ISAF, Georgian Armed Forces, GAF 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND GEORGIA’S PROSPECTS FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP Albert M. Martel Major, United States Marine Corps B.S., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 2003 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (EUROPE AND EURASIA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 2015 Author: Albert M. Martel Approved by: David S. Yost Thesis Advisor Mikhail Tsypkin Second Reader Mohammed M. Hafez Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT Many observers in NATO and European Union (EU) countries hold that Russia is attempting to challenge the increasing Western influence in Central and Eastern Europe and reassert itself as a regional and global superpower. The 2008 Russia-Georgia conflict and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine provide evidence in support of this theory. Twelve Central and Eastern European nations have nonetheless joined NATO since 1999, and others have pledged their membership aspirations. This fact alone suggests that a general fear of Russian aggression persists among Central and Eastern European nations, and that NATO enlargement is both justified and welcomed. This thesis examines Georgia’s prospects for NATO membership and assesses U.S. strategic interests in this regard. To accomplish this, this thesis analyzes Georgia’s geostrategic importance and investigates links between Georgian and U.S. foreign policies as they relate to NATO enlargement. As regards Georgia, the key questions concern the extent to which the United States supports Tbilisi’s candidacy for Alliance membership, and whether the United States and its NATO Allies are willing to accept the risks and responsibilities that would be incurred with Georgia’s NATO membership. This thesis concludes that U.S. decisions regarding Georgia’s candidacy for NATO membership will be of critical importance. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS RESEARCH ......................................................1 B. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................3 C. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES .............................8 D. RESEARCH DESIGN .....................................................................................9 E. THESIS OVERVIEW .....................................................................................9 II. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF GEORGIA .........................................................11 A. DEMOGRAPHY ............................................................................................11 B. ECONOMY ....................................................................................................13 C. ENERGY ........................................................................................................15 D. GEORGIA AND THE WTO ........................................................................16 E. POLITICS ......................................................................................................18 F. MILITARY .....................................................................................................22 III. U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS ..............................................................................27 A. FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE .........................................................................27 B. SECURITY ASSISTANCE ...........................................................................30 C. GEORGIA’S MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS ..........................................32 D. U.S.-GEORGIA CHARTER ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP ...........34 IV. GEORGIA’S PROSPECTS FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP ...................................37 A. 1995 STUDY ON NATO ENLARGEMENT..................................................37 B. GEORGIA’S MOTIVATIONS FOR AND PROGRESS TOWARD POTENTIAL NATO MEMBERSHIP .........................................................39 C. ISSUES HINDERING GEORGIA’S POTENTIAL NATO MEMBERSHIP ..............................................................................................44 1. Georgia’s Unresolved Territorial Disputes in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region/South Ossetia ......................................................45 2. Georgia’s Faltering Democratization and Need for Additional Defense Reforms.................................................................................53 V. CONCLUSION ..........................................................................................................59 LIST OF REFERENCES ......................................................................................................63 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST .........................................................................................69