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Engineering Strategies and Methods for Avoiding Air-Quality Externalities: Dispersion Modeling, Home Energy Conservation, and Scenario Planning

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Engineering Strategies and Methods for Avoiding Air-Quality Externalities: Dispersion Modeling, Home Energy Conservation, and Scenario Planning Engineering Strategies and Methods for Avoiding Air-Quality Externalities: Dispersion Modeling, Home Energy Conservation, and Scenario Planning by Andrew James Knox A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry University of Toronto © Copyright by Andrew James Knox 2015 Engineering Strategies and Methods for Avoiding Air-Quality Externalities: Dispersion Modeling, Home Energy Conservation, and Scenario Planning Andrew James Knox Doctor of Philosophy Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry University of Toronto 2015 Abstract Energy conservation can improve air quality by reducing emissions from fuel combustion. The human health value retained through better air quality can then offset the cost of energy conservation. Through this thesis’ innovative yet widely-accessible combination of air pollution dispersion modeling and atmospheric chemistry, it is estimated that the health value retained by avoiding emissions from Ontario’s former coal-fired generating stations is $5.74/MWh (using an upper-bound value of $265,000 per year of life lost). This value is combined with energy modeling of homes in the first-ever assessment of the air-quality health benefits of low-energy buildings. It is shown that avoided health damages can equal 7% of additional construction costs of energy efficient buildings in Ontario. At 7%, health savings are a significant item in the cost analysis of efficient buildings. Looking to energy efficiency in the context of likely future low-resource natural gas scenarios, building efficient buildings today is shown to be more economically efficient than any building retrofit option. Considering future natural gas scarcity in the context of Ontario’s Long- Term Energy Plan reveals that Ontario may be forced to return to coal-fired electricity. Projected coal use would result in externalities greater than $600 million/year; 80% more than ii air-quality externalities from Ontario’s electricity in 1985. Radically aggressive investment in electricity conservation (75% reduction per capita by 2075) is one promising path forward that keeps air-quality externalities below 1985 levels. Non-health externalities are an additional concern, the quantification, and ultimately monetization, of which could be practical using emerging air pollution monitoring technologies. Energy, conservation, energy planning, and energy’s externalities form a complex situation in which today’s decisions are critical to a successful future. It is clear that reducing the demand for energy is essential and that there are economically efficient conservation opportunities, particularly in the building sector, being missed. iii Acknowledgments I’ll be grateful to my supervisor, Greg Evans, for the rest of my life. He guided me through the process of writing this thesis but that guidance has been far from the extent of the effect he’s had on my life. I remember my interview with him when I was wanting to start my Master’s degree and I often think about how much richer my life has been as a result of him deciding to take me onboard then. (And then again as a result of him having me back to do my Ph.D.). I have loved my time at graduate school and feel truly fortunate to have had the experience. Greg is someone who cares a great deal about his students’ development, and I have benefitted from that care. He has a talent for pushing people to work hard and develop their skills, but he is never demanding or controlling. He sets a good example with his leadership and actively helps others become leaders. I feel like he’s spent so much time thinking about how to help me and guide me that I worry that he doesn’t leave any time for himself. He truly acts selflessly on behalf of his students, and I am grateful to have been able to be one of those students. I also acknowledge Bryan Karney, for supervising me and my thesis. Chapter 4 of this thesis was the result of Bryan asking me to write a paper for a special publication invitation he’d received. He asked me to write something on a tight timeline that was “not a cold start,” and it made me think deeper about where I could go with this thesis. Bryan has provided me with life- changing opportunities, especially in teaching. He’s consistently supportive, inspiring, and a source of good and helpful ideas. Like Greg, he is selfless in his contributions to his students, and while I sometimes worry that both Greg and Bryan work too hard, I acknowledge that I have benefited greatly from that hard work, and I am thankful for it. Professor Pressnail also had critical input on this thesis in the areas of building science. His building science course was the inspiration for much of the research I did. Actually, he said in an early committee meeting, “Well, what if you bring together building science and what you know about air pollution?” I acknowledge my wife, Stephanie Long, for supporting me throughout my Master’s degree and my Ph.D. She’s been understanding in the times when I’ve need to work long hours, but more importantly, she made sure I continued give attention to my life outside of school, and that has been essential to my enjoyment of this time, as well as my enjoyment of school. iv I acknowledge my other friends and family who were there for me throughout this time in my life. The SOCAAR (Southern Ontario Centre for Atmospheric Aerosol Research) group has been full of great people and friends for all the years I’ve been in it (and years when I wasn’t). I am grateful that I’ve been able to learn from and be supported by the SOCAAR team, and that I’ve been able to have so much fun with SOCAAR. I acknowledge that Jeffrey Douglas Berg provided the inspiration for the kernel of the idea that became Chapter 4 in this thesis. While I was trying to come up with an idea that was “not a cold start,” I remembered something Jeff said about the externalities associated with houses that freeze without fuel, have their pipes burst, and “become a good home for rats,” and that idea eventually became Chapter 4. Working with Jeff in Post Carbon Toronto was one of the things that made me want to do a Ph.D. On the topics of energy and energy politics, Jeff was one of the most knowledgeable people I knew, but Post Carbon Toronto couldn’t host “An Evening with Jeff Berg.” They had to find a person with a Ph.D. so that that person would seem credible when they presented some of what Jeff knew. That drove me towards doing my Ph.D., so that I could be one of those people. I dedicate this thesis to my dad. I did this work for myself and on my own initiative, but I know he wanted me to do it, and, like many of the best things in my life, I might not have thought to do it if not for him. v Table of Contents Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... xiii List of Figures .............................................................................................................................. xvi Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Thesis structure and ordering of papers ..................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2 A Refined Simple Method for Calculating Health Externalities from Fossil-Fuel Electricity Generation Stations .................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Author Contributions ........................................................................................................ 11 2.2 Abstract ............................................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 11 2.4 Use of AERMOD in Impact Pathways externalities modeling ........................................ 12 2.4.1 Short and Mid-range Dispersion Modeling with AERMOD ................................ 13 2.4.2 Reaction Kinetics and Pollutant Chemical Transformation .................................. 17 2.4.3 Population Exposure ............................................................................................. 19 2.4.4 Concentration-Response Slopes ............................................................................ 20 2.4.5 Evaluation of YOLL ............................................................................................. 20 2.4.6 Uncertainty ............................................................................................................ 20 2.5 Results: Externalities from Fossil Fueled Generating Stations in Ontario ...................... 21 2.5.1 AERMOD vs. Circular Dispersion ....................................................................... 22 2.5.2 Externalities from Fossil Fuel-Fired Generating Stations in Ontario ................... 23 2.5.3 Consistency in damage per unit
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