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2014 Midterm Election Results

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2014: Wave or No Wave Nationalization or All Elections are Local or Both President Obama’s Approval Ratings 2012-2014 60% 56% 54% 53% Metrics 52% 51% 48% 50% 50% 49% 50% • Obama spread – (11%) 48% 2014 Midterm Election Results • Congressional approval – 13% 49% 47% 47% • Generic ballot test – Reps 2% 40% 42% 43% 44% 42% 40% • Direction, right – 27% • House 234, need 17/lost 12 30% Colorado Medical Society • Senate 45, need 6/won 8/9 7-Sep-12 4-Nov-14 1st Debate Christmas 15-Apr-13 29-Nov-13 20-May-14 Elec9on Day Inauguraon Approval Disapproval Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14 Floyd Ciruli Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 184 44 244 53 November 2014 House Minority Leader Senate Majority Leader Speaker Senator Nancy Pelosi Harry Reid John Boehner Mitch McConnell Ciruli Associates 1115 Grant St., Ste G-6 Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399-3173 FAX (303) 399-3147 www.ciruli.com 1 Ciruli Associates 2014 Control of U.S. Senate 2014 Tonight You Shook Up the Senate Forecasts Mostly Right; Miss Size of Republican Tide Gardner by 2 Points and Wins by 2; Post Endorses Montana November 4 and Results New Hampshire R-18 (18) South Dakota D-1 (4) Iowa R-11 (20) R-2 (8) Gardner vs. Udall – Real Clear Politics “Abut 85 percent Poll Date Gardner Udall of Colorado voters Results 11-4 48% 46% immediately Average 11-2 46 44 Kentucky R-7 (15) decided who they PPP 11-2 48 45 supported. Since Quinnipiac 11-2 45 43 then, the lead has West Virginia Denver Post 10-29 46 44 Sen. Mark Udall shifted and R-16 (28) Rasmussen 10-23 51 45 remains close. CBS/NYT/YouGov 10-23 46 47 Gardner’s current North Carolina lead is just at the NBC/Marist 10-22 46 45 D-1 (R-2) USA Today/Suffolk 10-21 46 39 Colorado margin of error in R-2 (2) Georgia the polling Denver Post 10-12 45 43 R-3 (8) average.” Quinnipiac 9-15 48 40 Kansas Arkansas Denver Post Perspective, Denver Post 9-10 42 42 Win the Senate 10-26-14 Alaska I-1 (R-11) R-7 (16) PPP 3-16 40 42 538 – 75% R Sen. Cory Gardner R-2 (4) Louisiana Source: Real Clear Politics 2014 Huffington Post – 77% R Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 R-5 (13) New York Times – 70% R R win 7, maybe 9 2 Ciruli Associates 2014 3 Ciruli Associates 2014 1 Forecasts and Results on Udall vs. Gardner War on Women – Overkill? Calling the Race, Election Night Narrative, Final Results One Dimensional, Loses Favorability, Alienates Men Udall Will Lose November 4, 2014 Gardner – 17% men “Republicans win as Udall – 8% women gender gap shrinks.” Forecast % Colorado Senate Race NBC Exit Poll Gender Differences Wall Street Journal, 10-24-14 New York Times 80 R Udall Gardner Difference Favor FiveThirtyEight 81 R Quinnipiac Huffington Post 66 R Men 34% 53% 19 Gardner Women 49 40 9 Udall Source: Quinnipiac, 10-13-14 “The forecasters, such as Washington Post 97 R Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 FiveThirtyEight, New PPP York Times, Washington Year Candidate Vote % Difference Men 39% 46% 7 Gardner Post and Huffington Post, Women 46 42 4 Udall are predicting Cory 2008 Udall D 1,230,994 53 240,239 Source: PPP, 10-19-14 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 Gardner the Senate Schaffer R 990,755 42 USA Today/Suffolk winner with higher and 2014 Udall D 925,937 46 43,392 Men 38% 46% 8 Gardner higher percentages.” Gardner R 969,329 48 Women 39 46 7 Gardner The Buzz, 10-30-14 Source: USA Today/Suffolk, 10-21-14 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 4 Ciruli Associates 2014 5 Ciruli Associates 2014 Game Changer – DENVER POST Endorsement A Political Disaster – The ACA The overall theme is that the best anecdote to gridlock is change. ! Not popular to start, inspired the Tea Party (Jan. 2011 – 41% approve, Pew) ! Washington is gridlocked. It needs “fresh leadership, energy and ideas.” ! ACA website, November 2013 major political crisis for ! Gardner has been a reservoir of ideas and leadership from the President, damaged his credibility (keep your start of his career. insurance) ! Udall is a fine man, but “not perceived as a leader” and “not at the center of the issues that count.” ! Program not popular today (Nov. 2014 – 45% ! Udall’s multi-million dollar “war on women” ad campaign is now approve, Pew) damaging him more than Gardner. As the Post says, the “obnoxious one-issue campaign is insult to those he seeks to ! Passionate issue in Republican primaries, used convince.” extensively in Republican campaigns ! Flipping the Senate to Republican control will, in their view, be more productive for the next two years. President Obama’s desire ! Mend, don’t end is Democratic defense for a legacy and Republican self-interest in repairing their ! Gift that keeps giving, delayed mandates, prices reputation for gridlock could converge and would be enhanced in the Post’s view by Gardner’s election (See The Buzz, October 13). increase 6 Ciruli Associates 2014 7 Ciruli Associates 2014 2 The Bannock Street Project vs. Fight Club Governor Race – Four More Years Not Enough Voters, Democrats or Unaffiliated Denver Post and Pueblo Chieftain Endorse Hick Voter Registration – Oct. 2014 Voters In – Nov. 4, 2014 Gubernatorial Polls 3rd Par9es Unaffiliated 3rd Par9es Denver Post Denver Post CBS News NBC News Denver Post YouGov Quinnipiac Unaffiliated 2% 29% 1% 35% 9-10-14 10-12-14 10-22-14 10-22-14 10-29-14 10-31-14 11-2-14 Hickenlooper 45% 45% 48% 46% 46% 44% 43% Democrats Democrat Beauprez 43 44 44 41 46 42 45 31% 32% Don’t know/ 12 11 8 13 8 14 12 other Sources: Quinnipiac, Denver Post, CBS, NBC, YouGov 2014 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 Republicans Republican 32% 38% Voter Returns Year Candidate Vote % Difference AcOve Voter Registered Date Returns % Dems % Rep % Unaffiliated % 2008 Hickenlooper D 912,005 51 61,739 2,916,145 10-17 27,640 0.9% 8,714 32% 12,766 46% 5,864 21% Other R 850,260 47 2,916,145 10-22 332,050 11% 105,401 32% 145,824 44% 77,285 23% 2,916,145 10-29 905,500 31% 294,648 33% 379,250 42% 222,043 24% 2014 Hickenlooper D 987,545 49 63,061 Gov. John Bob Beauprez 2,916,145 11-3 1,607,220 55% 519,225 32% 636,223 40% 433,648 27% Hickenlooper Beauprez R 924,484 46 2,916,145 11-4 2,052,982 69% -- 32% -- 38% -- 29% 8 Ciruli Associates 2014 9 Ciruli Associates 2014 Sixth Congressional - Coffman Down Ballot – Republican Sweep Democrat Loses Big – 9 Points Obama Wins it by Five Points in 2012 Coffman Wins it by Two Points in 2012 Colorado State Constitutional Offices USA Today PPP USA Today Denver Post Floyd Ciruli 9-16-14 10-19-14 10-21-14 10-29-14 Results Coffman R 143,101 52% “Nancy Pelosi is not Attorney General Romanoff D 118,483 43 going to add 17 seats Cynthia Coffman, R 40% 46% 42% 45% 52% (for Democrats to Don Quick, D 30 32 31 38 42 retake the House) Other 5 7 8 6 6 Rep. Mike Coffman without getting this Don’t know 24 15 12 11 -- ! Polis loses Larimer State Treasurer one. It’ll be one of Cynthia Coffman and Jeffco in 2nd the most heavily Walker Stapleton, R -- 42% -- 46% 50% fought races in the Betsy Markey, D -- 40 -- 41 45 ! Tipton wins Pueblo country. It’ll be Other -- 6 -- 5 5 in 3rd highly negative. I Don’t know -- 12 -- 8 -- have no doubt about Secretary of State th that.” (Denver Post, Wayne Williams, R 35% 35% 35% 43% 47% ! Buck wins 65% in 4 Jan. 19, 2014) Joe Neguse, D 29 31 28 39 45 Andrew Romanoff Other 8 13 6 7 7 Don’t know 28 20 31 11 -- Don Quick 2014 votes: Sources: USA Today/Suffolk, PPP, Denver Post 2014 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 Arapahoe: Romanoff (8,500); Udall 3,000; Hickenlooper 18,000 10 Ciruli Associates 2014 11 Ciruli Associates 2014 3 Colorado State Legislature Colorado Ballot Issues Split Decision 145 Filed, 4 Make Ballot, 1 Wins Partisan Comparison USA USA Denver Today Today Post State House State Senate 9-16-14 10-21-14 10-29-14 Results Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Governor Amendment 67 - Personhood 2008 37 27 21 14 Ritter Yes 35% 31% 32% 35% No 45 55 54 64 2010 33 34 20 15 Hickenlooper Don’t know 17 13 14 -- Amendment 68 – Gaming at Racetracks 2012 37 28 20 15 Hickenlooper Yes 33% 21% 32% 29% 2013 37 28 18 17 Hickenlooper No 44 67 63 70 Don’t know 19 10 5 -- 2015 34 31 17 18 Hickenlooper Proposition 104 – School Board Open Meetings Yes 54% 64% 61% 69% No 24 22 24 30 Republicans hold Don’t know 19 14 15 -- Proposition 105 – Label Genetically Modified Food largest number of Yes 52% 30% 34% 34% legislatures since No 27 49 59 65 Great Depression Don’t know 19 21 8 -- Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 12 Ciruli Associates 2014 13 Ciruli Associates 2014 $100 Million-Dollar Senate Race Colorado Politics in Transition Mostly TV, Mostly Negative Election Isn’t About Colorado Any More Contributions 80% say seen TV ads September 30 " Nationalization of 2014 Colorado election ̶ Change of Senate Gardner Udall Total ̶ Forecasting Candidate $ 9.3 million $17.7 million $27.0 million ̶ No local issues “Independent” committees 26.8 million 29.2 million 56.0 million " Flood of money Total $36.1 million $46.9 million $83.0 million ̶ $100 million Senate Source: Denver Post 2014 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014 ̶ Mostly independent expenditures Political advertising " TV is king teaches vast numbers of ̶ TV debates, advertisements, truth tests viewers to live with a ̶ GOTV is challenger/online third false sense of insecurity " Denver Post endorsement still powerful (Paraphrase of Nightcrawler) ̶ Gridlock, change, poor campaign Brandon Rittiman of 9News " No access, less free media tosses coin in debate with Mark Udall (L) and Cory Gardner (R) ̶ No mistake campaigns Photo: Brennan Linsley, AP ̶ GOP keeps GOTV quiet 14 Ciruli Associates 2014 15 Ciruli Associates 2014 4 ACA Today – 9KUSA ACA Politics Republican Senate Major and Professor Gruber Ciruli says if voters didn't grasp that when the Affordable Care Act passed in Pew Research Center 2010, they figured it out pretty quickly.
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