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October 2008 The Rhodes Cook Letter October 2008 / Vol. 9, No. 5 (ISSN 1552-8189)

Content s

On the Cusp of History...... 3 Chart: The 2008 Presidential Tickets ...... 4 Chart and Line Graph: Presidential Elections since 1948: GOP Has Won Most . . . 5 Chart: Presidential Approval Ratings: Often a Preview of the Election to Come . . . . . 6

Clues to the Map...... 7 Chart & Map: Presidential Elections, 1992-2004: Democratic, Republican States and Those in Between...... 7

Gauging the Electorate ...... 9 Chart & Bar Graph: 2008 Battleground States: Democrats Surge in Voter Registration 9

Congressional Elections...... 10 Could This Election Mark the Return of Presidential Coattails? ...... 10 Chart & Map: And the Nominees Are …Senate ’08...... 11 Chart & Map: The ’08 Gubernatorial Match Ups ...... 13 Chart & Map: House Races to Watch: A Starting Point … the Marginals ...... 14 Chart: The Primary Hurdle: Difficult for Some Congressional Incumbents ...... 16 Chart: A Recap of the Major Races Nov .4 ...... 18 Chart: 2007-08 Special House Election Results ...... 19

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The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  ON THE CUSP OF HISTORY

nly time will tell if the 2008 presidential election will take its place with the transformative ones Oof the past – particularly with that of 1932, when in the midst of economic crisis Franklin D. Roosevelt refashioned the electorate to the Democrats’ advantage for a generation to come. But this year’s election is already sure to make history. Voters Nov. 4 will either elect the first African- American president in the nation’s history in Democrat or elect the first female to nation- al office in Republican vice presidential candidate . And if Palin is elected, so too will be John McCain, who at age 72 would be the oldest person ever at the time of assuming the presidency. It is also unmistakably a high-stakes election. When he was running for president a generation ago, Alabama Gov. George Wallace often dismissed the Democrats and Republicans as “Tweedledum and Tweedledee,” in claiming there was “not a dime’s worth of difference” between the major parties. Back then, it was a charge that had resonance. Nowadays, it does not. Since 9/11, the distinct differ- ences between the two major parties have been obvious – on the war in Iraq, on taxes, on health insur- ance. As a consequence, the nation’s politics have become highly partisan and polarized. Yet voter enthusiasm is high. The turnout Nov. 4 should easily break the record of 122.3 million set in 2004. And the results – although expected to be quite favorable for the Democrats – still contain ele- ments of unpredictability. In 2004, when the presidential vote was essentially a referendum on the con- troversial presidency of George W. Bush, voters tended to be either adamantly in support or opposition of the incumbent. Very few were undecided about President Bush or needed to be persuaded. That is not the case this year. With no incumbent on the ballot, candidates have had to introduce them- selves to the American public. Many voters are still pondering their choice. But one thing appears cer- tain. Come January, there will either be a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress or a Repub- lican president and a Democratic Congress. No one expects an outcome that includes a Republican Congress. The only question is how low the GOP congressional numbers will go. They are not too bad at present. Democrats approach next week’s voting with a narrow 51-to-49 edge in the Senate (including two independents, of Con- necticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont, who caucus with the Democrats) and a 235-to-199 advantage in the House (with one Democratic vacancy, resulting from the death of Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio in August). But with Capitol Hill Republicans bearing the brunt of the party’s problems, the only question now seems to be whether the Democrats can be held below the supermajority of 60 seats in the Senate and a hefty majority of 250 to 260 seats in the House. Both would be much stronger majorities than the Republicans ever attained during their recent period of congressional dominance from 1994 to 2006. Not Over Yet

n a sense, 2008 is shaping up as a “throwback” to the political dynamics of a generation ago, when Ithe Republican presidential candidate routinely ran better than his congressional ticket-mates. And McCain’s ability to stay within shouting distance of Obama in many polls adds to the sense, at least in this corner, that the presidential race is not over yet. The so-called “Bradley effect” – where basically, some white voters will not admit their racism to poll- sters – raises some doubt about the veracity of the size of the Obama lead heading toward Election Day. In that sense, the Obama candidacy is “a roll of the dice” as famously said during the primary season. And to McCain’s advantage, the nation has been quite comfortable electing Republican presidents over the past generation. The GOP candidate has won seven of the last 10 contests, with pull- ing the South into the Republican orbit during his presidency and attracting blue-collar

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  ethnics to the GOP at least temporarily and conservative Christians permanently. The result is that the “floor” these days for any reasonably competent GOP candidate is about 200 electoral votes of the 270 needed to elect. With his maverick, independent image, McCain is arguably the best candidate that Republicans could nominate in a year where the “base vote” is not enough. In 2004, there were roughly the same number of self-described Democrats and self-described Republicans casting presidential ballots. Since then, the Democratic numbers have grown while the Republican numbers have shrunk. McCain not only needs near-unanimous support from Republicans at the ballot box – something that the choice of Palin has helped him secure – but he also needs to carve deeply into the ranks of independents and disaffected Democrats. For a time after the Republican convention, when McCain surged in the polls, that seemed quite pos- sible. But the campaign in the last two months has shifted from a focus on high oil prices and the need for expanded offshore drilling (an issue that favored the Republicans) to the worst economic crisis in decades (that has boosted the Democrats). The change of focus has underscored how terrible the basic metrics of this campaign are for the Republicans. Wind at Obama’s Back

ot only is the economy a cause of considerable concern, the expensive war in Iraq lingers on, Nwith President Bush’s approval rating (around 25%) at the lowest point ever recorded by the Poll on the eve of a presidential election. The incumbent is not just a drag on the ticket, he is an albatross. And then there is the “8-year itch,” the tendency of voters over the last half century to give one party two terms in the White House before shifting to the other. There have been only two exceptions to this (Continued on Page 6) THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL TICKETS Third party and independent presidential candidates are unlikely to be much of a story Election Night. They are not expected to draw more than an aggregate 1% to 2% of the vote nationally. But individual candidates could be a factor in individual states, with independent candidate and Green Party nominee Cynthia McKinney poised to draw some votes from Barack Obama on the left and Libertarian Party nominee and Constitution Party standard-bearer positioned to siphon votes from John McCain on the right. Following is a list of this year’s presidential and vice presidential nominees for all parties (plus independent Ralph Nader) who received at least 100,000 votes in the 2004 presidential election. The parties (and Nader) are listed in the order of their popular vote in 2004. ‘04 Pres. Results Party Candidate Home State Occupation Age Vote % John McCain Ariz. Senator 72 Republican 62,040,610 50.7% Sarah Palin 44 Barack Obama Ill. Senator 47 Democratic 59,028,439 48.3% Del. Senator 65 Ralph Nader Conn. Consumer activist 74 Independent 465,650 0.4% Calif. Ex-S.F. supervisor 43 Bob Barr Ga. Ex-U.S. Representative 59 Libertarian 397,265 0.3% Wayne Root Nev. TV producer 47 Chuck Baldwin Fla. Minister, talk show host 56 Constitution * 143,630 0.1% Darrell Castle Tenn. Lawyer 60 Cynthia McKinney Ga. Ex-U.S. Representative 53 Green * 119,859 0.1% N.Y. Community organizer 35 Note: Candidate ages are as of Election Day, Nov. 4. An asterisk (*) indicates that the ages of the Constitution and Green Party vice presidential candidates may not be precise, since their actual birth dates were not readily available. Neither was the home state of the Green Party vice presidential candidate. Source: America Votes 26 (CQ Press) for 2004 presidential votes; The Almanac of American Politics 2008 () for biographical information for candidates with congressional or gubernatorial ties. The for biographical information on other candidates.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SINCE 1948: GOP HAS WON MOST

100% Republican Percentage of Vote 90% Democrat Precentage of Vote Others Percentage of Vote 80%

70%

60% otal Vote) T

50%

40%

30% (Percentage (Percentage of

20%

10%

0% 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 (Election Years)

The Democrats and Republicans have been closely matched in recent presidential elections. But taking a longer view, Republicans have dominated. They have won nine of the 15 presidential elections since the end of World War II, and seven of the 10 held since 1968. Altogether, seven postwar Republican presidential candidates have won a majority of the popular vote, compared to just two Democrats, Lyndon Johnson and Bill Clinton. However, three other Democrats - Harry Truman, John Kennedy and Bill Clinton - have been elected with between 49% and 50% of the total vote.

Percentage of Total Vote Plurality Electoral Votes Election Candidates Turnout (in votes) Dems. Reps. Others Dems. Reps. Others 1948 TRUMAN (D)* - Dewey (R) 48,793,826 50% 45% 5% D 2,188,054 303 189 39 1952 EISENHOWER (R) - Stevenson (D) 61,550,918 44% 55% - R 6,621,242 89 442 - 1956 EISENHOWER (R)* - Stevenson (D) 62,026,908 42% 57% 1% R 9,567,720 73 457 1 1960 KENNEDY (D) - Nixon (R) 68,838,219 49.7% 49.5% 1% D 118,574 303 219 15 1964 JOHNSON (D)* - Goldwater (R) 70,644,592 61% 38% - D 15,951,378 486 52 - 1968 NIXON (R) - Humphrey (D) - Wallace (AI) 73,211,875 42.7% 43.4% 14% R 510,314 191 301 46 1972 NIXON (R)* - McGovern (D) 77,718,554 38% 61% 2% R 17,999,528 17 520 1 1976 CARTER (D) - Ford (R)* 81,555,889 50% 48% 2% D 1,682,970 297 240 1 1980 REAGAN (R) - Carter (D)* - Anderson (Ind.) 86,515,221 41% 51% 8% R 8,420,270 49 489 - 1984 REAGAN (R)* - Mondale (D) 92,652,842 41% 59% 1% R 16,877,890 13 525 - 1988 BUSH (R) - Dukakis (D) 91,594,809 46% 53% 1% R 7,077,023 111 426 1 1992 CLINTON (D) - Bush (R)* - Perot (Ind.) 104,425,014 43% 37% 20% D 5,805,444 370 168 - 1996 CLINTON (D)* - Dole (R) - Perot (Reform) 96,277,872 49% 41% 10% D 8,203,602 379 159 - 2000 G.W. BUSH (R) - Gore (D) 105,396,627 48.4% 47.9% 4% D 537,179 266 271 1 2004 G.W. BUSH (R)* - Kerry (D) 122,295,345 48% 51% 1% R 3,012,171 251 286 1 Note: Winning presidential candidates are listed first in each election and their names are capitalized. An asterisk (*) denotes an incumbent president. Independent or third party candidates that received at least 5% of the popular vote are listed. (AI) indicates American Independent Party. (Ind.) stands for Independent. The Democratic and Republican vote percentages are presented in tenths of a percentage point for races that were decided by less than 1 point. A dash (-) indicates that the combined vote share for “Others” is less than one half of one percent (0.5%). Percentages do not always add to 100 due to rounding. Source: America Votes 27 (CQ Press). The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  (Continued from Page 4) trend since 1952 – in the late 1970s, when voters gave Democrat only one term, and in the 1980s when Reagan and George H.W. Bush won three terms in a row for the Republicans. Yet while the political climate is extremely favorable these days for the Democrats, Obama has com- plemented this basic advantage by fashioning one of the largest, most audacious presidential cam- paigns in American history. By forgoing public financing, he has been able to raise hundreds of mil- lions of dollars for his fall campaign – money he has been able to pump into both a spirited “ground game” that has helped produce a Democratic voter registration surge across the country, as well as a lavish advertising blitz (that featured a glossy, 30-minute, prime-time “infomercial” televised simultane- ously on several networks Oct. 29). The combination of money and new voters has enabled the Obama campaign to think aggressively when looking at the electoral map. They have not tried to fashion victory by simply defending the Democratic base on the two coasts, and trying to pick off Ohio or Florida. They have taken the fight to the Republicans both in the industrial states of the Midwest and the GOP heartland from the South to the Mountain West. As a result, Obama is making serious PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS: overtures in both traditional battle- OFTEN A PREVIEW OF THE ELECTION TO COME ground states that There is a close, if not inviolable, correlation between a president’s pre-election approval rating and his party’s last voted for Bush success, or lack thereof, in the presidential election that follows. The Gallup Poll began measuring presidential (such as , Mis- approval in advance of the 1940 election. Since then, the president’s party has captured the White House in all but two elections when the incumbent’s last pre-election rating was above 50%. On the other hand, the souri, Ohio, Florida, president’s party has lost all but two elections when the incumbent’s final pre-election approval score has fallen and New below 50%, and all of them when the rating has fallen below 40%. With a presidential approval rating of 25% Mexico) as well as as of Oct. 10-12, 2008, George W. Bush is on course to have the lowest pre-election approval rating ever. an array of tradi- tionally Republican Presidents since 1940 states – Colorado, Last Pre-election Presidential Election Outcome for , North Car- President Election Status olina and , Approval Rating President’s Party just to name a few. Lyndon Johnson (D) 1964 On Ballot 74% Won by 23% At the same time, Dwight Eisenhower (R) 1956 On Ballot 68% Won by 15% Obama is defending Franklin Roosevelt (D) 1944 On Ballot 66% Won by 7% at most two states Franklin Roosevelt (D) 1940 On Ballot 64% Won by 10% on the Democratic Dwight Eisenhower (R) 1960 Open 58% Lost by 0.2% side of the map, Ronald Reagan (R) 1984 On Ballot 58% Won by 18% and Bill Clinton (D) 2000 Open 57% Won by 0.5%* . Richard Nixon (R) 1972 On Ballot 56% Won by 23% This is not to say Bill Clinton (D) 1996 On Ballot 54% Won by 9% that McCain can- Ronald Reagan (R) 1988 Open 51% Won by 8% not win. But in this George W. Bush (R) 2004 On Ballot 48% Won by 2% environment and under these condi- (R) 1976 On Ballot 45% Lost by 2% tions, a McCain vic- Lyndon Johnson (D) 1968 Open 42% Lost by 0.7% tory Nov. 4 would Harry Truman (D) 1948 On Ballot 40% Won by 4% rank among the Jimmy Carter (D) 1980 On Ballot 37% Lost by 10% biggest surprises in George Bush (R) 1992 On Ballot 33% Lost by 6% American political Harry Truman (D) 1952 Open 32% Lost by 11% history… a mod- George W. Bush (R) 2008 Open 25% ern day version of Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that Democrat won the popular vote in 2000, but that Republican George “Dewey beats Tru- W. Bush won the all-important electoral vote. man.” Source: Gallup Poll.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, 1992-2004: DEMOCRATIC, REPUBLICAN STATES AND THOSE IN BETWEEN

Presidential Vote in Last Four Elections, 1992-2004 Voted Electoral States Democratic Vote 4 of 4 18 248 3 of 4 3 16 2 of 4 8 75 1 of 4 5 64 0 of 4 16 135 TOTAL 50 538

Note: The District of Columbia has also voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections.

The Democrats and Republicans have split the last four presidential elections. Democrat Bill Clinton won twice by clear-cut margins in the 1990s. Republican George W. Bush scored narrower victories in 2000 and 2004. The chart below lists the winner in each state in the last four elections plus their margin of victory in percentage points, which is indicated in parentheses. Elections decided by 5.0% of the total vote or less are underlined. Those decided by less than 1 percentage point are listed in tenths of a percentage point (or hundreths where need be). An asterisk (*) indicates that in 2000 Democrat Al Gore finished ahead in the popular vote, but that Republican George W. Bush won the all-important electoral vote. Nevada has been the most competitive state since 1992, voting twice for the Democrats and twice for the Republicans, each time by less than 5 percentage points.

Close Elections Region Electoral Vote ‘92 ‘96 ‘00 ‘04 (5% or less) NATIONWIDE - 538 D (6%) D (9%) D (0.5%)* R (2%) 2 STRAIGHT DEMOCRATIC (Last 4 elections) Close Elections Region Electoral Vote ‘92 ‘96 ‘00 ‘04 (5% or less) California West 55 D (13%) D (13%) D (12%) D (10%) 0 Northeast 7 D (6%) D (18%) D (18%) D (10%) 0 Northeast 3 D (8%) D (15%) D (13%) D (8%) 0 Dist. of Columbia Northeast 3 D (76%) D (76%) D (76%) D (80%) 0 West 4 D (11%) D (25%) D (18%) D (9%) 0 Midwest 21 D (14%) D (18%) D (12%) D (10%) 0 Maine Northeast 4 D (8%) D (21%) D (5%) D (9%) 0 Maryland Northeast 10 D (14%) D (16%) D (16%) D (13%) 0 Northeast 12 D (19%) D (33%) D (27%) D (25%) 0 Michigan Midwest 17 D (7%) D (13%) D (5%) D (3%) 1 Midwest 10 D (12%) D (16%) D (2%) D (3%) 2 New Jersey Northeast 15 D (2%) D (18%) D (16%) D (7%) 1 Northeast 31 D (16%) D (29%) D (25%) D (18%) 0 Oregon West 7 D (10%) D (8%) D (0.5%) D (4%) 2 Pennsylvania Northeast 21 D (9%) D (9%) D (4%) D (3%) 2 Northeast 4 D (18%) D (33%) D (29%) D (21%) 0 Vermont Northeast 3 D (16%) D (22%) D (10%) D (20%) 0 Washington West 11 D (11%) D (13%) D (6%) D (7%) 0 Wisconsin Midwest 10 D (4%) D (10%) D (0.2%) D (0.4%) 3 248

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  USUALLY DEMOCRATIC (3 of last 4 elections) Close Elections Region Electoral Vote ‘92 ‘96 ‘00 ‘04 (5% or less) Iowa Midwest 7 D (6%) D (10%) D (0.3%) R (0.7%) 2 New Hampshire Northeast 4 D (1%) D (10%) R (1%) D (1%) 3 New Mexico West 5 D (9%) D (7%) D (0.1%) R (0.8%) 2 16 EVEN SPLIT Close Elections Region Electoral Vote ‘92 ‘96 ‘00 ‘04 (5% or less) Arkansas South 6 D (18%) D (17%) R (5%) R (10%) 0 Kentucky South 8 D (3%) D (0.9%) R (15%) R (20%) 2 South 9 D (5%) D (12%) R (8%) R (15%) 1 Missouri Midwest 11 D (10%) D (6%) R (3%) R (7%) 1 Nevada West 5 D (3%) D (1%) R (4%) R (3%) 4 Ohio Midwest 20 D (2%) D (6%) R (4%) R (2%) 3 South 11 D (5%) D (2%) R (4%) R (14%) 3 Northeast 5 D (13%) D (15%) R (6%) R (13%) 0 75 USUALLY REPUBLICAN (3 of last 4 elections) Close Elections Region Electoral Vote ‘92 ‘96 ‘00 ‘04 (5% or less) Arizona West 10 R (2%) D (2%) R (6%) R (10%) 2 Colorado West 9 D (4%) R (1%) R (8%) R (5%) 3 Florida South 27 R (2%) D (6%) R (.01%) R (5%) 3 South 15 D (0.6%) R (1%) R (12%) R (17%) 2 Montana West 3 D (3%) R (3%) R (25%) R (21%) 2 64 STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN (Last 4 elections)

Close Elections Region Electoral Vote ‘92 ‘96 ‘00 ‘04 (5% or less)

Alabama South 9 R (7%) R (7%) R (15%) R (26%) 0 Alaska West 3 R (9%) R (18%) R (31%) R (26%) 0 Idaho West 4 R (14%) R (19%) R (40%) R (38%) 0 Indiana Midwest 11 R (6%) R (6%) R (16%) R (21%) 0 Kansas Midwest 6 R (5%) R (18%) R (21%) R (25%) 0 Mississippi South 6 R (9%) R (5%) R (17%) R (20%) 0 Midwest 5 R (17%) R (19%) R (29%) R (33%) 0 North Carolina South 15 R (0.7%) R (5%) R (13%) R (12%) 2 North Dakota Midwest 3 R (12%) R (7%) R (28%) R (27%) 0 Oklahoma South 7 R (9%) R (8%) R (22%) R (31%) 0 South 8 R (8%) R (6%) R (16%) R (17%) 0 South Dakota Midwest 3 R (4%) R (3%) R (23%) R (21%) 2 Texas South 34 R (3%) R (5%) R (21%) R (23%) 2 Utah West 5 R (19%) R (21%) R (40%) R (46%) 0 Virginia South 13 R (4%) R (2%) R (8%) R (8%) 2 West 3 R (6%) R (13%) R (40%) R (40%) 0 135 Source: America Votes 26 (CQ Press).

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  BATTLEGROUND STATES: DEMOCRATS SURGE IN VOTER REGISTRATION A Close Look at 3 States 110,000 100,000 Dem. Registration Advantage over Reps. 90,000 Rep. Registration 80,000 Advantage over Dems. 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

0 2004 2008 2004 2008 2004 2008 Iowa Nevada New Hampshire 2004 Result Bush by 10,059 2004 Result Bush by 21,500 2004 Result Kerry by 9,274

There are eight states that could still be considered battlegrounds in the Nov. 4 presidential election where voters reg- ister by party. Six of the eight were carried by President Bush in 2004, and in four of the eight states there were more Republicans then than Democrats. But during Bush’s second term, there has been a decided Democratic registration surge in all eight of these battleground states. Democrats now outnumber Republicans in six of them. And what was an aggre- gate Democratic registration advantage in the eight states of 1.6 million registered voters in 2004 has nearly doubled since then. Altogether, 29 states plus the District of Columbia have party registration. The others do not.

Dem.-Rep. Total Registrations Change, Electoral ‘04 Pres ‘04-’08 Registration Plurality Votes Winner Fall ‘04 Fall ‘08 (in % points) Fall ‘04 Fall ‘08 Colorado 9 Bush by 99,523 3,114,566 3,203,583 + 3% 177,508 R 11,704 R Florida 27 Bush by 380,978 10,301,290 11,247,634 + 9% 368,757 D 657,775 D Iowa 7 Bush by 10,059 1,964,740 1,966,806 + 0.1% 4,402 R 98,820 D Nevada 5 Bush by 21,500 1,071,101 1,207,423 + 13% 4,431 R 100,791 D New Hampshire 4 Kerry by 9,274 855,861 868,668 + 1% 38,746 R 5,932 R New Mexico 5 Bush by 5,988 1,105,372 1,183,942 + 7% 190,956 D 217,956 D North Carolina 15 Bush by 435,317 5,523,239 6,224,230 + 13% 677,641 D 850,873 D Pennsylvania 21 Kerry by 144,248 8,366,663 8,751,262 + 5% 580,208 D 1,234,374 D Total 93 Bush by 799,843 32,302,832 34,653,548 + 7% 1,592,475 D 3,142,953 D (8 battlegrounds) Note: The fall 2008 voter registration data is the latest available as of Oct. 29. Not all states tally voter registration the same way. Some clearly differentiate between active and inactive voters. Many states, though, present one total without explanation of which voters are included. Where a choice is to be made, this publication tends to use the total with active voters only, unless a more expansive tally is accented by state election officials. Source: America Votes 26 (CQ Press) for 2004 presidential victory margins by state; the web sites of the state election boards for voter registration data.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008  COULD THIS ELECTION MARK THE RETURN OF PRESIDENTIAL COATTAILS?

hen Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign was riding high in the summer of 1976, a but- Wton appeared that read: “Carter’s Little Lever Pals.” The slogan, a take off on the old medicinal remedy (“Carter’s Little Liver Pills”), was an effort by other candidates on the Democratic ticket to benefit from Carter’s popularity and grab onto his apparent coattails. But that coattail pull evaporated long before the election as Carter limped to victory by a margin of just 2 percentage points. Since then, coattails have rated barely a mention, a casualty of modest- sized presidential election victories and the increased ability of congressional candidates to mount well-funded campaigns independent of the top of their party’s ticket. But if Democratic nominee Barack Obama should finish strong this year, it would almost certainly provide a major assist to his party ticket-mates. And should the Democrats increase their numbers in the Senate to a supermajority of 60 and expand their majority in the House from the current 36 seats to 75 or more in the next Congress, Obama would get much of the credit. He would deserve it as Ronald Reagan did in 1980, by taking a favorable political climate and running a campaign that boosted not just himself but his party’s entire ticket. Basically, there are two ways to evaluate presidential coattails: quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach gives a numerical sense of a candidate’s coattail pull, or lack thereof. It is often based on comparing the district by district vote for the presidential candidate with victori- ous House candidates of his party. For instance, a presidential candidate that wins a particular dis- trict with 55% of the vote as his party’s congressional candidate is winning the same district with 51% is considered an example of coattail pull. A half century or so ago, presidential coattails were often quite long. In 1956, President Dwight Eisenhower ran ahead of more than 150 of his successful Republican House ticket-mates. In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson outpaced more than 130 victorious Democratic congressional candi- dates. In 1972, President Richard Nixon provided coattail help to more than 100 winning GOP House candidates. The common ingredient in these elections: They were all landslides. Since 1972, only one presiden- tial candidate, Reagan in 1984, has been elected with more than 55% of the total vote. And George W. Bush in 2004 was the first presidential candidate since his father 20 years ago to receive even a simple majority of the vote. As a consequence, in recent elections, presidential coattail pull has been virtually non-existent in any quantitative sense. Yet in this day and age, a candidate with a modest winning percentage can still provide the groundwork for others on his party’s ticket to succeed. That was what Reagan offered his fellow Republicans in 1980. He made an effective case against President Carter, who was hobbled by the Iraq hostage crisis and an economy that had turned sour. Reagan could tellingly ask: “Are you bet- ter off than you were four years ago?” And the answer to most voters was obvious. Reagan in 1980 had only modest coattail pull in quantitative terms - he ran ahead of less than 40 successful Republican House candidates, far fewer than Ike, LBJ and Nixon did in their heyday.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 10 Yet in qualitative terms, Reagan proved to be an effective standard-bearer for the entire Republican ticket, which was highlighted by the GOP takeover of the Senate for the first time in more than a quarter century. Republicans gained 12 Senate seats that year, all but one in states that Reagan carried. He ran ahead of a half dozen of the GOP Senate newcomers in their home states, in the process helping to retire such Democratic lions as , Frank Church and George McGovern. The results established Reagan both as a potent vote-getter and as the undisputed leader of his party once he took office. For Obama, a modest but clear-cut victory Nov. 4 could bring similar benefits.

(This text is a based on a column written for Political Perceptions on WSJ.com. All other text, charts and artwork are original to this issue.) AND THE NOMINEES ARE … SENATE ‘08

When it comes to the U.S. Senate, the Republican goal SENATE RESULTS SINCE 1992 in 2008 is a modest one - to Party in Dems. Reps. Ind. keep the current Democratic Control advantage from rising to a supermajority of 60. It could. 1992 57 43 0 D Nearly two-thirds of the Senate 1994 47 53 0 R seats up Nov. 4 are currently held by the GOP (23 of 35). Yet most 1996 45 55 0 R of this year’s Senate races are 1998 45 55 0 R being waged in the South and Mountain West, favorable terrain 2000* 50 50 0 R/D for the Republicans. Incumbent 2002 48 51 1 R senators are listed below in bold type, with their number of full 2004 44 55 1 R terms served as of the end of this 2006 49 49 2 D Congress indicated in parenthe- Republican incumbent running ses. An asterisk (*) denotes the Note: The last time the Democrats won result of a runoff in 2002. A dash Democratic incumbent running at least 60 Senate seats was in 1976. An asterisk (*) indicates that James (-) means that the party did not Republican open seat nominate a candidate. The icon Jeffords (Vt.) switched from Republican “@” indicates that the present to independent in June 2001, giving the incumbent was appointed to fill Democrats control of the Senate for the a vacancy since the 2006 election. remainder of the 107th Congress.

Democratic Candidates Republican Candidates Incumbent’s $700-billion Candidate Office Candidate Office ‘02 Win % bailout vote NORTHEAST Christine Marketing Delaware JOE BIDEN Incumbent (6) D - 58% Yes O’Donnell Consultant Maine Tom Allen U.S. Representative SUSAN COLLINS Incumbent (2) R - 58% Yes Anti- Massachusetts Incumbent (4) Jeff Beatty D - 80% Yes consultant New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Ex-Governor JOHN E. SUNUNU Incumbent (1) R - 51% Yes FRANK Ex-U.S. New Jersey Incumbent (4) Dick Zimmer D - 54% Yes LAUTENBERG Representative Rhode Island JACK REED Incumbent (2) Robert Tingle Casino pit boss D - 78% Yes West Virginia JAY Incumbent (4) Jay Wolfe Ex-State Senator D - 63% Yes

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 11 Democratic Candidates Republican Candidates Incumbent’s $700-billion Candidate Office Candidate Office ‘02 Win % bailout vote MIDWEST Illinois RICHARD DURBIN Incumbent (2) Steve Sauerberg Physician D - 60% Yes Iowa TOM HARKIN Incumbent (4) Chris Reed Businessman D - 54% Yes Kansas Jim Slattery Ex-U.S. Representative Incumbent (2) R - 83% NO Michigan CARL LEVIN Incumbent (5) Jack Hoogendyk State Representative D - 61% Yes Minnesota Al Franken Comedian, writer NORM COLEMAN Incumbent (1) R - 50% Yes Nebraska (R Open) Scott Kleeb Ranch manager Ex-Governor (R - 83%/Hagel) (Yes) South Dakota TIM JOHNSON Incumbent (2) Joel Dykstra State Representative D - 50% NO SOUTH Alabama Vivian Figures State Senator Incumbent (2) R - 59% NO Arkansas MARK PRYOR Incumbent (1) - - D - 54% Yes Ex-State SAXBY Georgia Jim Martin Incumbent (1) R - 53% Yes Representative CHAMBLISS MITCH Kentucky Bruce Lunsford Health care executive Incumbent (4) R - 65% Yes McCONNELL Louisiana MARY LANDRIEU Incumbent (2) John Kennedy State Treasurer D - 52%* NO Mississippi Ex-State Erik Fleming THAD COCHRAN Incumbent (5) R - 85% NO (full term) Representative Mississippi (R - 64%/Lott Ronnie Musgrove Ex-Governor Incumbent @ NO (short term) ‘06) North Carolina Kay Hagan State Senator ELIZABETH DOLE Incumbent (1) R - 54% NO Oklahoma Andrew Rice State Senator JAMES INHOFE Incumbent (2) R - 57% NO LINDSEY South Carolina Bob Conley Engineer Incumbent (1) R - 54% Yes GRAHAM LAMAR Tennessee Bob Tuke Ex-State party chair Incumbent (1) R - 54% Yes ALEXANDER Texas Rick Noriega State Representative JOHN CORNYN Incumbent (1) R - 55% Yes (R - 83%/J. Virginia (R Open) Ex-Governor Ex-Governor (Yes) Warner) WEST Alaska Anchorage Mayor Incumbent (6) R - 78% Yes Ex-U.S. Colorado (R Open) Mark Udall U.S. Representative Bob Schaffer (R - 51%/Allard) (NO) Representative Idaho (R Open) Larry LaRocco Ex-Representative Jim Risch Lt. Governor (R - 65%/Craig) (Yes) Montana Incumbent (5) Bob Kelleher Lawyer D - 63% Yes New Mexico (R (R - 65%/ Tom Udall U.S. Representative Steve Pearce U.S. Representative (Yes) Open) Domenici) Oregon Jeff Merkley State House Speaker GORDON SMITH Incumbent (2) R - 56% Yes Wyoming (full Chris Rothfuss College instructor MIKE ENZI Incumbent (2) R - 73% NO term) Wyoming (R - 70%/ Nick Carter Lawyer JOHN BARRASSO Incumbent @ NO (short term) Thomas ‘06) Sources: The Almanac of American Politics 2008 (National Journal) for the number of Senate terms served by incumbents; America Votes 26 (CQ Press) for the 2002 election results. Newspapers and campaign web sites for the occupations of non-incumbent candidates.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 12 THE ‘08 GUBERNATORIAL MATCH UPS

GUBERNATORIAL RESULTS SINCE 1992 Party with The nation’s governorships - a centerpiece of the midterm Dems. Reps. Other elections - are a backwater in presidential election most Govs. years. Only 11 are at stake in 2008, none in any of the 1992 30 18 2 D nation’s most populous states. However, the governors’ race in Washington features a rematch of what was by 1994 19 30 1 R far the closest gubernatorial or Senate contest in 2004. 1996 18 31 1 R After several recounts, Democrat Christine Gregoire 1998 17 31 2 R prevailed by 129 votes out of more than 2.8 million cast. Incumbent governors are listed below in bold type, with 2000 19 29 2 R their number of terms served as of the end of this year 2002 24 26 0 R indicated in parentheses. 2004 22 28 0 R 2006 28 22 0 D Source: Elections A to Z (CQ Press).

Republican incumbent running Democratic incumbent running Republican open seat Democrat open seat

Term Democratic Candidates Republican Candidates Incumbent’s length Last Win % Candidate Office Candidate Office (in years) Delaware Ex-DE Superior Jack Markell State Treasurer Bill Lee (D - 51%/Minner) 4 (D Open) Court Justice Ex-U.S. Indiana Incumbent (1) R - 53% 4 Representative Missouri MO Attorney (R - 51%/M. Jay Nixon Kenny Hulshof U.S. Representative 4 (R Open) General Blunt) Montana BRIAN SCHWEITZER Incumbent (1) Roy Brown State Senator D - 50% 4 New Hampshire JOHN LYNCH Incumbent (2) Joe Kenney State Senator D - 74% 2 North Carolina Beverly Perdue Lt. Governor Pat McCrory Charlotte Mayor (D - 56%/Easley) 4 (D Open) North Dakota Tim Mathern State Senator JOHN HOEVEN Incumbent (2) R - 71% 4 Management Utah Bob Springmeyer JON HUNTSMAN Incumbent (1) R - 58% 4 consultant Vermont Gaye Symington State House Speaker JIM DOUGLAS Incumbent (3) R - 56% 2 Washington CHRISTINE GREGOIRE Incumbent (1) Dino Rossi Ex-State Senator D - 49% 4 West Virginia III Incumbent (1) Russ Weeks Ex-State Senator D - 64% 4 Sources: America Votes 26 (CQ Press) for gubernatorial election returns. Newspapers and campaign web sites for the occupations of non-incumbent candidates.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 13 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH: A STARTING POINT . . THE MARGINALS

This list of House marginals Note: The partisan HOUSE RESULTS SINCE 1992 - those who won their last House totals reflect the election with 55.0% or less membership as of Oct. of the total vote - does not 31, 2008. The number of Party in Dems. Reps. Inds. encompass the whole list of full terms served by each Conrol congressional races to watch incumbent as of the end this year. But it does serve as of this Congress is noted 1992 258 176 1 D a starting point. Democrats in parentheses. “(R)” 1994 204 230 1 R gained 30 House seats in 2006 denotes the member was and have picked up three elected in a special runoff 1996 207 227 1 R more by special election since in 2006; “(S),” that the 1998 211 223 1 R then. As a consequence, the incumbent was elected number of House marginals in a special election 2000 212 221 2 R is skewed toward freshmen since 2006. Winning Majority Seats Republican on the Democratic side, while 2002 205 229 1 R percentages are based on Majority Seats Democrat their Republican counterparts the total vote. Open seats 2004 202 232 1 R are generally more veteran are indicated in italics. Seats Evenly Split members. However, many 2006 233 202 0 D of the latter have decided to retire rather than face a House Marginals tough reelection House Seats (elected last time with 55% or less) in 2008 and almost Democrats Republicans certain minority status again in the ‘04 Pres. ‘04 Pres. Dem Rep. Vac. Incumbent Incumbent next Congress. Winner Winner At Stake in 2008 235 199 1 NORTHEAST CT 2 - Courtney (1) - 50% Kerry by 10% CT 4 - Shays (10) - 51% Kerry by 6% Connecticut 4 1 CT 5 - C. Murphy (1) - 54% Kerry by 0.3% Delaware 1 Maine 2 Maryland 6 2 Massachusetts 10 MA 5 - N. Tsongas (S) - 51% Kerry by 16% NH 1 - Shea-Porter (1) - 51% Bush by 3% New Hampshire 2 NH 2 - Hodes (1) - 53% Kerry by 5% NJ 5 - Garrett (3) - 55% Bush by 14% New Jersey 7 6 NJ 7 - Ferguson (4) - 49% (Open) Bush by 6% NY 19 - Hall (1) - 51% Bush by 9% NY 25 - Walsh (10) - 51% (Open) Kerry by 2% New York 23 6 NY 20 - Gillibrand (1) - 53% Bush by 8% NY 26 - Reynolds (5) - 52% (Open) Bush by 12% NY 24 - Arcuri (1) - 54% Bush by 6% NY 29 - Kuhl (2) - 51% Bush by 14% PA 4 - Altmire (1) - 52% Bush by 9% PA 3 - English (7) - 54% Bush by 6% Pennsylvania 11 8 PA 8 - P. Murphy (1) - 50% Kerry by 3% PA 6- Gerlach (3) - 51% Kerry by 3% PA 10 - Carney (1) - 53% Bush by 20% PA 15 - Dent (2) - 54% Kerry by 0.3% Rhode Island 2 Vermont 1 VT AL - Welch (1) - 53% Kerry by 20% West Virginia 2 1 MIDWEST IL 8 - Bean (2) - 51% Bush by 12% IL 6 - Roskam (1) - 51% Bush by 6% Illinois 11 8 IL 14 - Foster (S) - 52.5% Bush by 11% IL 10 - Kirk (4) - 53% Kerry by 6% IN 2 - Donnelly (1) - 54% Bush by 13% IN 3 - Souder (7) - 54% Bush by 37% Indiana 5 4 IN 7 - A. Carson (S) - 54% Kerry by 16% IN 9 - Hill (4) - 50% Bush by 19% IA 2 - Loebsack (1) - 51% Kerry by 11% Iowa 3 2 IA 3 - Boswell (6) - 52% Bush by 0.1% Kansas 2 2 KS 2 - Boyda (1) - 51% Bush by 20% MI 7 - Walberg (1) - 50% Bush by 9% Michigan 6 9 MI 9 - Knollenberg (8) - 52% Bush by 2% MI 11 - McCotter (3) - 54% Bush by 6% The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 14 House Marginals House Seats (elected last time with 55% or less) Democrats Republicans ‘04 Pres. ‘04 Pres. Dem Rep. Vac. Incumbent Incumbent Winner Winner Minnesota 5 3 MN 1 - Walz (1) - 53% Bush by 4% MN 6 - Bachmann (1) - 50% Bush by 15% Missouri 4 5 NE 2 - Terry (5)- 55% Bush by 22% Nebraska 3 NE 3 - A. Smith (1) - 55% Bush by 51% North Dakota 1 OH 1 - Chabot (7) - 52% Bush by 2% Ohio 6 11 1 OH 2 - Schmidt (1) - 50% Bush by 28% OH 15 - Pryce (8) - 50% (Open) Bush by 1% South Dakota 1 Wisconsin 5 3 WI 8 - Kagan (1) - 51% Bush by 11% SOUTH Alabama 2 5 Arkansas 3 1 FL 16 - Mahoney (1) - 50% Bush by 8% FL 8 - Keller (4) - 53% Bush by 10% Florida 9 16 FL 22 - Klein (1) - 51% Kerry by 4% FL 13 - Buchanan (1) - 50% Bush by 13% GA 8 - Marshall (3) - 51% Bush by 22% Georgia 6 7 GA 12 - Barrow (2) - 50% Bush by 1% Kentucky 2 4 KY 3 - Yarmuth (1) - 51% Kerry by 2% KY 4 - G. Davis (2) - 51% Bush by 27% Louisiana 3 4 LA 6 - Cazayoux (S) - 49% Bush by 19% Mississippi 3 1 MS 1 - Childers (S) - 54% Bush by 25% North Carolina 7 6 NC 11 - Shuler (1) - 54% Bush by 14% NC 8 - Hayes (5) - 50% Bush by 9% Oklahoma 1 4 South Carolina 2 4 Tennessee 5 4 TX 22 - Lampson (1) - 52% Bush by 28% Texas 13 19 TX 23 - C. Rodriguez (4) - 54% (RO) Bush by 14% Virginia 3 8 VA 2 - Drake (2) - 51% Bush by 16% WEST Alaska 1 Arizona 4 4 AZ 5 - Mitchell (1) - 50% Bush by 9% AZ 1 - Renzi (3) - 52% (Open) Bush by 8% CA 11 - McNerney (1) - 53% Bush by 9% CA 4 - Doolittle (9) - 49% (Open) Bush by 24% California 34 19 CA 50 - Bilbray (4) - 53% Bush by 11% Colorado 4 3 CO 7 - Perlmutter (1) - 55% Kerry by 3% CO 4 - Musgrave (3) - 46% Bush by 17% Hawaii 2 Idaho 2 ID 1 - Sali (1) - 50% Bush by 39% Montana 1 NV 2 - Heller (1) -- 50% Bush by 16% Nevada 1 2 NV 3 - Porter (3) - 48% Bush by 1% New Mexico 1 2 NM 1 - H. Wilson (5) - 50% (Open) Kerry by 3% Oregon 4 1 OR 5 - Hooley (6) - 54% (Open) Bush by 1% Utah 1 2 Washington 6 3 WA 8 - Reichert (2) - 51% Kerry by 3% Wyoming 1 WY AL - Cubin (7) - 48% (Open) Bush by 40% Source: The Almanac of American Politics 2008 (National Journal) for the number of House terms served and the 2004 presidential vote by congressional district.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 15 THE PRIMARY HURDLE: DIFFICULT FOR SOME CONGRESSIONAL INCUMBENTS

The current number of House incumbents defeated in primaries this year stands at four. But it could go up to five, with veteran Democratic Rep. William Jefferson of Louisiana forced into a primary runoff Nov. 4. The incumbent has served under an ethics cloud for several years now, and was held to 25% of the primary vote in his New Orleans-based district on Oct. 4. As it is, the four defeated House incumbents is the most in any primary season since 1994 in a non-redistrict- ing year (one that ends in a ‘2’). If Jefferson loses next month and the number of primary incumbent casualties increases to five, that would mark the highest in a non-redistricting year since 1980.

SENATORS ‘08 ‘08 Primary ‘02 Election ‘04 Pres. Winner Terms Comment Primary % Outcome Outcome in State Frank Lautenberg, Incumbent’s age (84) a target of pri- 4 59.0% Won 54% Kerry by 7% D-N.J. mary challenge Also 84 years old and under indict- Ted Stevens, 6 63.5% Won 78% Bush by 26% ment at time of primary; subsequently R-Alaska convicted Like his ally, John McCain, Graham’s , 1 66.8% Won 54% Bush by 17% displays of bipartisanship have angered R-S.C. GOP base ‘04 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, 4 68.9% Won 80% Kerry by 25% draws first Senate in D-Mass. 24 years REPRESENTATIVES ‘08 ‘08 Primary ‘06 Election ‘04 Pres. Winner Terms Comment Primary % Outcome Outcome in District DEFEATED Wayne Gilchrest, Too moderate for many GOP voters in 9 33.1% LOST 69% Bush by 26% R-Md. 1 suburban/Eastern Shore district Al Wynn, Loses rematch with Donna Edwards 8 36.9% LOST 81% Kerry by 57% D-Md. 4 after narrowly beating her in ‘06 Chris Cannon, Finally beaten after weathering 2 ear- 6 40.0% LOST 58% Bush by 57% R-Utah 3 lier primaries focused on immigration David Davis, Davis loses primary rematch to Johnson 1 49.2% LOST 61% Bush by 37% R-Tenn. 1 City Mayor Phil Roe RUNOFF Incumbent indicted on corruption William Jefferson, Runoff 9 25.3% 57%(RO) Kerry by 49% charges; faces runoff with former TV D-La. 2 (Nov. 4) newswoman BREAKING A SWEAT (Renominated with less than 60%) Carolyn Kilpatrick, Legal problems engulfing Detroit Mayor 6 39.0% Won 100% Kerry by 62% D-Mich. 13 Kilpatrick cause problems for his mother Doug Lamborn, Lamborn wins rematch with aide to 1 44.5% Won 60% Bush by 33% R-Colo. 5 previous incumbent, Joel Hefley Ethics-tainted 75 year-old incumbent , 17 45.5% Won 57% Bush by 26% nearly beaten by Sarah Palin-backed R-Alaska AL lieutenant governor Less than 2 months after winning Andre Carson, @ 46.5% Won - Kerry by 16% special election, Carson faces 8-way D-Ind. 7 primary

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 16 ‘08 ‘08 Primary ‘06 Election ‘04 Pres. Winner Terms Comment Primary % Outcome Outcome in District , Quits presidential race to focus on holding 6 50.3% Won 66% Kerry by 17% D-Ohio 10 House seat , Long a lightning rod for controversy, Burton 13 51.8% Won 65% Bush by 43% R-Ind. 5 draws a serious primary foe in ‘08 Ric Keller, Keller draws criticism for reneging on personal 4 53.1% Won 53% Bush by 10% R-Fla. 8 4- Dan Lipinski, Feelings of nepotism continue to rankle; second 2 53.8% Won 77% Kerry by 18% D-Ill. 3 straight 54% primary Jean Schmidt, Trouble at the polls since narrow special election 1 57.5% Won 50% Bush by 28% R-Ohio 2 win in ‘05 Walter Jones, Anti- position brings Jones his 1st GOP 7 59.0% Won 69% Bush by 36% R-N.C. 3 primary challenge WARNING SHOT (Renominated with 60-75%) Bill Sali, Outspoken Sali won GOP House nomination in 1 60.1% Won 50% Bush by 39% R-Idaho 1 ‘06 with 26% of primary vote Leonard Boswell, Boswell’s votes for Iraq war and 6 60.9% Won 52% Bush by 0.1% D-Iowa 3 bring primary challenge David Scott, Scott fends off third challenge from an ex-state 3 63.7% Won 69% Kerry by 20% D-Ga. 13 senator but vote closer than ever Marsha Blackburn, Challenger hits Blackburn for campaign financ- 3 65.1% Won 66% Bush by 33% R-Tenn. 7 ing irregularities Joe Baca, Challenger claims Baca trying to create a family 4 66.3% Won 64% Kerry by 17% D-Calif. 43 political dynasty Bob Inglis, Primary challenger says Inglis has moved to the 5 67.0% Won 64% Bush by 31% R-S.C. 4 left Patrick McHenry, McHenry’s predecessor, Cass Ballenger, endorses 2 67.1% Won 62% Bush by 34% R-N.C. 10 incumbent’s primary foe , Primary win sets up 4th straight race against 4 67.6% Won 50% Bush by 19% D-Ind. 9 Republican Mike Sodrel Edolphus Towns, Since endorsing Giuliani for mayor in 1997, Towns has 13 67.9% Won 92% Kerry by 73% D - N.Y. 10 drawn some significant primary opposition , Lewis’ belated switch from Clinton too late for 11 69.0% Won 100% Kerry by 48% D-Ga. 5 some Obama supporters Henry Brown, Brown’s principal challenger a former congres- 4 70.1% Won 60% Bush by 22% R-S.C. 1 sional employee of his , Takes time out from presidential bid to make 9 70.4% Won 60% Bush by 34% R-Texas 14 sure he wins House primary Paul Broun, Narrow ‘07 special election winner wins big in @ 71.0% Won - Bush by 30% R-Ga. 10 GOP primary for full term , Drawn steady primary opposition since ‘02 redis- 8 71.6% Won 62% Bush by 39% R-Ind. 4 tricting Ralph Hall, Second primary challenge for Hall since he 14 73.4% Won 64% Bush by 40% R-Texas 4 joined the GOP in early ‘04 Laura Richardson, Newcomer Richardson dogged by questions @ 74.4% Won - Kerry by 49% D-Calif. 37 about her personal finances David Dreier, Illegal immigration issue has helped fuel recent 14 74.5% Won 57% Bush by 11% R-Calif. 26 challenges to Dreier Bob Latta, Elected last December, Latta beginning to con- @ 74.8% Won - Bush by 22% R-Ohio 5 solidate GOP base Note: “@” denotes that the House incumbent was elected since 2006. “(RO)” indicates that the result represents a primary run- off. The 2008 congressional primary percentages are based on official returns for all primaries held before May, and for Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New York, North Carolina and South Carolina since then. Source: The Almanac of American Politics 2008 (National Journal) for terms served by incumbents as of the end of this Congress and the 2004 presidential vote by congressional district. America Votes 27 (CQ Press) for past Senate and House results. This year’s primary results are from state election web sites.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 17 A RECAP OF THE MAJOR RACES NOV . 4

‘04 Presidential House Seats Seats Up Vote Dem Rep. Vac. Senators Governors At Stake in 2008 Bush by 2.4% 235 199 1 35 Up (23 R, 12 D) 11 Up (6 D, 5 R) NORTHEAST Connecticut Kerry by 10% 4 1 Delaware Kerry by 8% 1 Joe Biden (D) Ruth Ann Minner (D) - OPEN Maine Kerry by 9% 2 Susan Collins (R) Maryland Kerry by 13% 6 2 Massachusetts Kerry by 25% 10 John Kerry (D) New Hampshire Kerry by 1% 2 John Sununu (R) John Lynch (D) New Jersey Kerry by 7% 7 6 Frank Lautenberg (D) New York Kerry by 18% 23 6 Pennsylvania Kerry by 3% 11 8 Rhode Island Kerry by 21% 2 Jack Reed (D) Vermont Kerry by 20% 1 Jim Douglas (R) West Virginia Bush by 13% 2 1 John Rockefeller IV (D) Joe Manchin III (D) MIDWEST Illinois Kerry by 10% 11 8 Richard Durbin (D) Indiana Bush by 21% 5 4 Mitch Daniels (R) Iowa Bush by 0.7% 3 2 Tom Harkin (D) Kansas Bush by 25% 2 2 Pat Roberts (R) Michigan Kerry by 3% 6 9 Carl Levin (D) Minnesota Kerry by 3% 5 3 Norm Coleman (R) Missouri Bush by 7% 4 5 Matt Blunt (R) – OPEN Nebraska Bush by 33% 3 (R) - OPEN North Dakota Bush by 27% 1 John Hoeven (R) Ohio Bush by 2% 6 11 1 South Dakota Bush by 21% 1 Tim Johnson (D) Wisconsin Kerry by 0.4% 5 3 SOUTH Alabama Bush by 26% 2 5 Jeff Sessions (R) Arkansas Bush by 10% 3 1 Mark Pryor (D) Florida Bush by 5% 9 16 Georgia Bush by 17% 6 7 (R) Kentucky Bush by 20% 2 4 Mitch McConnell (R) Louisiana Bush by 15% 3 4 Mary Landrieu (D) Mississippi Bush by 20% 3 1 Thad Cochran (R); Roger Wicker (R) @ North Carolina Bush by 12% 7 6 Elizabeth Dole (R) Michael Easley (D) - OPEN Oklahoma Bush by 31% 1 4 James Inhofe (R) South Carolina Bush by 17% 2 4 Lindsey Graham (R) Tennessee Bush by 14% 5 4 (R) Texas Bush by 23% 13 19 John Cornyn (R) Virginia Bush by 8% 3 8 (R) - OPEN

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 18 ‘04 Presidential House Seats Seats Up Vote Dem Rep. Vac. Senators Governors WEST Alaska Bush by 26% 1 Ted Stevens (R) Arizona Bush by 10% 4 4 California Kerry by 10% 34 19 Colorado Bush by 5% 4 3 Wayne Allard (R) - OPEN Hawaii Kerry by 9% 2 Idaho Bush by 38% 2 (R) – OPEN Montana Bush by 21% 1 Max Baucus (D) Brian Schweitzer (D) Nevada Bush by 3% 1 2 New Mexico Bush by 0.8% 1 2 Pete Domenici (R) - OPEN Oregon Kerry by 4% 4 1 Gordon Smith (R) Utah Bush by 46% 1 2 Jon Huntsman (R) Washington Kerry by 7% 6 3 Christine Gregoire (D) Wyoming Bush by 40% 1 Michael Enzi (R); John Barrasso (R) @ Note: The partisan House totals reflect the membership as of Oct. 31, 2008.

2007-08 SPECIAL HOUSE ELECTION RESULTS

During the 2007-08 election cycle, the Democrats scored a net gain of three seats in special House elections. They are indicated below in BOLD. The other special elections in this cycle were won by the party that previously held the seat. One more special election remains to be held - on Nov. 18 in the Ohio 11th District, to fill the vacancy created by the death Aug. 20 of Democratic Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones.

Election District Former Member New Member Turnout Dem. Rep. Other ‘04 Pres. Winner Date Ga. 10 Charlie Norwood (R) Paul Broun (R) 7/17/07 46,664 - 50.4%@ - Bush by 30% Juanita Millender- Calif. 37 Laura Richardson (D) 8/21/07 23,221 67.0% 25.1% 0.8% Kerry by 49% McDonald (D) Mass. 5 Martin Meehan (D) Niki Tsongas (D) 10/16/07 105,936 51.3% 45.1% 3.6% Kerry by 16% Ohio 5 Paul Gillmor (R) Bob Latta (R) 12/11/07 98,510 42.9% 57.0% 0.2% Bush by 22% Va. 1 (R) Rob Wittman (R) 12/11/07 70,382 37.3% 60.8% 1.9% Bush by 21% Ill. 14 (R) Bill Foster (D) 3/8/08 99,385 52.5% 47.5% - Bush by 11% Ind. 7 (D) Andre Carson (D) 3/11/08 84,513 54.0% 43.1% 2.9% Kerry by 16% Calif. 12 Tom Lantos (D) Jackie Speier (D) 4/8/08 85,281 77.7%@ - - Kerry by 45% La. 1 (R) Steve Scalise (R) 5/3/08 45,075 22.5% 75.1% 2.4% Bush by 43% La. 6 Richard Baker (R) Don Cazayoux (D) 5/3/08 101,017 49.2% 46.3% 4.5% Bush by 19% Miss. 1 Roger Wicker (R) Travis Childers (D) 5/13/08 107,914 53.8% 46.2% - Bush by 25% Md. 4 Al Wynn (D) Donna Edwards (D) 6/17/08 20,462 80.5% 17.8% 1.7% Kerry by 57% Note: Results are based on official returns from the decisive round of special election voting in which the seat was filled. “@” indicates that the election was between candidates from the same party; only the winner’s percentage of the vote is listed. Percentages do not always add to 100 due to rounding. Source: The Almanac of American Politics 2008 (National Journal) for the 2004 presidential vote by congressional district; the state election web sites for 2007-08 special election dates and results.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 19