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Download Article (PDF) READY, SET, VOTE The Rhodes Cook Letter October 2008 The Rhodes Cook Letter OCTOBER 2008 / VOL. 9, NO. 5 (ISSN 1552-8189) Content s On the Cusp of History ............................ .3 Chart: The 2008 Presidential Tickets ............................................ .4 Chart and Line Graph: Presidential Elections since 1948: GOP Has Won Most .. 5 Chart: Presidential Approval Ratings: Often a Preview of the Election to Come ..... 6 Clues to the Map ................................ .7 Chart & Map: Presidential Elections, 1992-2004: Democratic, Republican States and Those in Between. .7 Gauging the Electorate ........................... .9 Chart & Bar Graph: 2008 Battleground States: Democrats Surge in Voter Registration 9 Congressional Elections .......................... 10 Could This Election Mark the Return of Presidential Coattails? . 10 Chart & Map: And the Nominees Are …Senate ’08 ............................ .11 Chart & Map: The ’08 Gubernatorial Match Ups ............................. .13 Chart & Map: House Races to Watch: A Starting Point … the Marginals .......... .14 Chart: The Primary Hurdle: Difficult for Some Congressional Incumbents ......... .16 Chart: A Recap of the Major Races Nov. 4 ................................... .18 Chart: 2007-08 Special House Election Results ............................... .19 The Rhodes Cook Letter is published by Rhodes Cook. Web: tion for six issues is $99. Make check payable to “The Rhodes rhodescook.com. E-mail: [email protected]. Design by Cook Letter” and send it, along with your e-mail address, to Landslide Design, Rockville, MD. “The Rhodes Cook Letter” P.O. Box 574, Annandale, VA. 22003. See the last page of this is published on a bimonthly basis. An individual subscrip- newsletter for a subscription form. Layout and Graphics by Sue Hoye All contents are copyrighted ©2008 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material is welcome with attribution, although the author retains full copyright over the material contained herein. The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 2 ON THE CUSP OF HISTORY nly time will tell if the 2008 presidential election will take its place with the transformative ones Oof the past – particularly with that of 1932, when in the midst of economic crisis Franklin D. Roosevelt refashioned the electorate to the Democrats’ advantage for a generation to come. But this year’s election is already sure to make history. Voters Nov. 4 will either elect the first African- American president in the nation’s history in Democrat Barack Obama or elect the first female to nation- al office in Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin. And if Palin is elected, so too will be John McCain, who at age 72 would be the oldest person ever at the time of assuming the presidency. It is also unmistakably a high-stakes election. When he was running for president a generation ago, Alabama Gov. George Wallace often dismissed the Democrats and Republicans as “Tweedledum and Tweedledee,” in claiming there was “not a dime’s worth of difference” between the major parties. Back then, it was a charge that had resonance. Nowadays, it does not. Since 9/11, the distinct differ- ences between the two major parties have been obvious – on the war in Iraq, on taxes, on health insur- ance. As a consequence, the nation’s politics have become highly partisan and polarized. Yet voter enthusiasm is high. The turnout Nov. 4 should easily break the record of 122.3 million set in 2004. And the results – although expected to be quite favorable for the Democrats – still contain ele- ments of unpredictability. In 2004, when the presidential vote was essentially a referendum on the con- troversial presidency of George W. Bush, voters tended to be either adamantly in support or opposition of the incumbent. Very few were undecided about President Bush or needed to be persuaded. That is not the case this year. With no incumbent on the ballot, candidates have had to introduce them- selves to the American public. Many voters are still pondering their choice. But one thing appears cer- tain. Come January, there will either be a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress or a Repub- lican president and a Democratic Congress. No one expects an outcome that includes a Republican Congress. The only question is how low the GOP congressional numbers will go. They are not too bad at present. Democrats approach next week’s voting with a narrow 51-to-49 edge in the Senate (including two independents, Joe Lieberman of Con- necticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont, who caucus with the Democrats) and a 235-to-199 advantage in the House (with one Democratic vacancy, resulting from the death of Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio in August). But with Capitol Hill Republicans bearing the brunt of the party’s problems, the only question now seems to be whether the Democrats can be held below the supermajority of 60 seats in the Senate and a hefty majority of 250 to 260 seats in the House. Both would be much stronger majorities than the Republicans ever attained during their recent period of congressional dominance from 1994 to 2006. Not Over Yet n a sense, 2008 is shaping up as a “throwback” to the political dynamics of a generation ago, when Ithe Republican presidential candidate routinely ran better than his congressional ticket-mates. And McCain’s ability to stay within shouting distance of Obama in many polls adds to the sense, at least in this corner, that the presidential race is not over yet. The so-called “Bradley effect” – where basically, some white voters will not admit their racism to poll- sters – raises some doubt about the veracity of the size of the Obama lead heading toward Election Day. In that sense, the Obama candidacy is “a roll of the dice” as Bill Clinton famously said during the primary season. And to McCain’s advantage, the nation has been quite comfortable electing Republican presidents over the past generation. The GOP candidate has won seven of the last 10 contests, with Richard Nixon pull- ing the South into the Republican orbit during his presidency and Ronald Reagan attracting blue-collar The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2008 3 ethnics to the GOP at least temporarily and conservative Christians permanently. The result is that the “floor” these days for any reasonably competent GOP candidate is about 200 electoral votes of the 270 needed to elect. With his maverick, independent image, McCain is arguably the best candidate that Republicans could nominate in a year where the “base vote” is not enough. In 2004, there were roughly the same number of self-described Democrats and self-described Republicans casting presidential ballots. Since then, the Democratic numbers have grown while the Republican numbers have shrunk. McCain not only needs near-unanimous support from Republicans at the ballot box – something that the choice of Palin has helped him secure – but he also needs to carve deeply into the ranks of independents and disaffected Democrats. For a time after the Republican convention, when McCain surged in the polls, that seemed quite pos- sible. But the campaign in the last two months has shifted from a focus on high oil prices and the need for expanded offshore drilling (an issue that favored the Republicans) to the worst economic crisis in decades (that has boosted the Democrats). The change of focus has underscored how terrible the basic metrics of this campaign are for the Republicans. Wind at Obama’s Back ot only is the economy a cause of considerable concern, the expensive war in Iraq lingers on, Nwith President Bush’s approval rating (around 25%) at the lowest point ever recorded by the Gallup Poll on the eve of a presidential election. The incumbent is not just a drag on the ticket, he is an albatross. And then there is the “8-year itch,” the tendency of voters over the last half century to give one party two terms in the White House before shifting to the other. There have been only two exceptions to this (Continued on Page 6) THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL TICKETS Third party and independent presidential candidates are unlikely to be much of a story Election Night. They are not expected to draw more than an aggregate 1% to 2% of the vote nationally. But individual candidates could be a factor in individual states, with independent candidate Ralph Nader and Green Party nominee Cynthia McKinney poised to draw some votes from Barack Obama on the left and Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr and Constitution Party standard-bearer Chuck Baldwin positioned to siphon votes from John McCain on the right. Following is a list of this year’s presidential and vice presidential nominees for all parties (plus independent Ralph Nader) who received at least 100,000 votes in the 2004 presidential election. The parties (and Nader) are listed in the order of their popular vote in 2004. ‘04 Pres. Results Party Candidate Home State Occupation Age Vote % John McCain Ariz. Senator 72 Republican 62,040,610 50.7% Sarah Palin Alaska Governor 44 Barack Obama Ill. Senator 47 Democratic 59,028,439 48.3% Joe Biden Del. Senator 65 Ralph Nader Conn. Consumer activist 74 Independent 465,650 0.4% Matt Gonzalez Calif. Ex-S.F. supervisor 43 Bob Barr Ga. Ex-U.S. Representative 59 Libertarian 397,265 0.3% Wayne Root Nev. TV producer 47 Chuck Baldwin Fla. Minister, talk show host 56 Constitution * 143,630 0.1% Darrell Castle Tenn. Lawyer 60 Cynthia McKinney Ga. Ex-U.S. Representative 53 Green * 119,859 0.1% Rosa Clemente N.Y. Community organizer 35 Note: Candidate ages are as of Election Day, Nov. 4. An asterisk (*) indicates that the ages of the Constitution and Green Party vice presidential candidates may not be precise, since their actual birth dates were not readily available. Neither was the home state of the Green Party vice presidential candidate.
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