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Pimpama River Catchment Hydrological Study Addendum Report

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Pimpama River Catchment Hydrological Study Addendum Report Pimpama River Catchment Hydrological Study Addendum Report July 2015 Title: Pimpama River Catchment Hydrological Study - Addendum Report 2015 Author: Study for: City Planning Branch Planning and Environment Directorate The City of Gold Coast File Reference: WF18/44/02 (P3) TRACKS #50622520 Version history Changed by Reviewed by & Version Comments/Change & date date 1.0 Adoption of BOM’s new IFD 2013 2.0 Grammar Review Distribution list Name Title Directorate Branch NH Team PE City Planning TRACKS-#50622520-v3-PIMPAMA_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_STUDY_ADDENDUM_REPORT_JULY_2015 Page 2 of 26 1. Executive Summary The City of Gold Coast (City) undertook a hydrological study for Pimpama River catchment in December 2014 (City 2014, Ref 1). In the study, the Pimpama River catchment hydrological model was developed using the URBS modelling software. The model was calibrated to three historical flood events and verified against another four flood events. The design rainfalls from 2 to 2000 year annual recurrence intervals (ARIs) of the study were based on study undertaken by Australian Water Engineering (AWE) in 1998 and CRC-FORGE. In early 2015, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released new IFD (2013) design rainfalls as part of the revision of Engineers Australia’s design handbook ‘Australian Rainfall and Runoff: A Guide to Flood Estimation’. In July 2015, the 2014 calibrated Pimpama hydrological model was used to run the design events using rainfall data obtained from the BOM’s new 2013 IFD tables. This report documents the review of City 2014 model and should be read in conjunction with the City 2014 hydrological study report. The original forest factor, catchment and channel parameters obtained from the 2014 calibrated Pimpama hydrological model were used for this study update. The table below shows these parameter values: Parameter Adopted Value (Channel Lag Parameter) 0.3 (Catchment Lag Parameter) 3.0 m (Catchment non-linearity Parameter) 0.75 F (Forest Factor) F*0.5 The BOM’s new (IFD 2013) rainfalls were adopted for all durations and ARIs less than and equal to 100 years. For the ARIs greater than 100 year to 2000 year: The extrapolated BOM rainfalls are used for durations less than 24 hours. The maximum intensity of BOM’s new IFD 2013 and CRC-FORGE is adopted for durations greater than and equal to 24 hours. The URBS model was used to estimate design discharges for: A range of design events from 2 to 2000 year ARIs. The Probable Maximum Precipitation Flood (PMPDF). The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) with the adopted rainfalls and rainfall losses. The table below shows the URBS estimated design discharges obtained in the current study at the four gauging stations for a range of return periods including PMPDF and PMF. All the design discharges given in the table include an Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) based on total catchment area. TRACKS-#50622520-v3-PIMPAMA_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_STUDY_ADDENDUM_REPORT_JULY_2015 Page 3 of 26 Peak Design Discharge (m3/s) ARI (years) Hotham Stewarts Norwell Kerkin Creek Alert Road Alert Alert Road Alert 2 40 39 40 94 5 68 66 68 158 10 92 90 94 216 20 121 118 122 281 50 154 150 156 359 100 184 179 186 427 200 212 207 213 490 500 253 247 253 581 1000 289 282 285 656 2000 328 319 322 736 PMPDF 717 684 652 1459 PMF 671 689 717 1612 A comparison of design discharges obtained from the current and City 2014 studies was undertaken at four gauging stations. Table below shows design discharges obtained from current and City 2014 studies at Hotham Creek and Kerkin Road Alert stations. Estimated Design Discharge (m3/s) ARI (years) Hotham Creek Alert Kerkin Road Alert City 2014 Current City 2014 Current Study Study 2 40 40 77 94 5 71 68 149 158 10 93 92 203 216 20 119 121 261 281 50 148 154 330 359 100 171 184 385 427 As can be seen from this table the differences of URBS’s discharge estimates at Hotham Creek gauging station are minor, though URBS discharge estimates at the Kerkin Road gauging station are approximately 5 to 10% higher than the City 2014 study. TRACKS-#50622520-v3-PIMPAMA_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_STUDY_ADDENDUM_REPORT_JULY_2015 Page 4 of 26 In addition, Monte Carlo simulations were undertaken in this study for comparative purposes only. Both the Total Probability Theorem (TPT) and the Cooperative Research Centre – Catchment Hydrology (CRC-CH) Monte Carlo techniques were applied in this study. These techniques are collectively known as the Joint Probability Approach (JPA). The figures below show the comparison of design discharges at the Hotham Creek and Kerkin Road Alert stations for the Design Event Approach (DEA) and the JPA modelling approach. The updated URBS model design discharges were compared with the previous study’s results and verified with Monte Carlo Simulation. It is concluded that the Joint Probability Approach (Monte Carlo) supports the URBS model design discharge estimates. TRACKS-#50622520-v3-PIMPAMA_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_STUDY_ADDENDUM_REPORT_JULY_2015 Page 5 of 26 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 3 2. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 7 3. Project Details ............................................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Adopted Model parameters ................................................................................................. 7 3.2 Rainfall Intensity .................................................................................................................. 7 3.3 Rainfall Losses .................................................................................................................... 8 3.4 Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) ......................................................................................... 8 3.5 Design Flood Estimation ...................................................................................................... 9 3.5.1 Frequent to Large Design Events (up to including 100 years ARI) ............................ 9 3.5.2 Rare to Extreme Design Events (200 to 2000 years ARI) ........................................ 10 3.5.3 Probable Maximum Precipitation Design Flood (PMPDF) ........................................ 11 3.5.4 Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) .............................................................................. 11 3.5.5 Comparison with the City of Gold Coast 2014 Study (Ref 1) ................................... 12 4. Joint Probability Approach (Monte Carlo Simulation) ............................................................. 14 5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 16 6. References ................................................................................................................................... 17 7. Appendices .................................................................................................................................. 18 Appendix A - Intensity-Frequency-Duration Curves (IFD) .......................................................... 18 Appendix B – Design Event Hydrographs ................................................................................... 20 Appendix B1 - Frequent to Large Design Events .............................................................. 20 Appendix B2 - Rare to Extreme Design Events ................................................................. 22 Appendix C – Monte Carlo Results ............................................................................................. 24 TRACKS-#50622520-v3-PIMPAMA_RIVER_HYDROLOGICAL_STUDY_ADDENDUM_REPORT_JULY_2015 Page 6 of 26 2. Introduction City developed an URBS hydrological model for Pimpama River catchment in December 2014 (Ref 1). The model was calibrated against January 2008, January 2012 and January 2013 historical flood events and was verified against February 2004, March 2004, November 2004 and June 2005 flood event. The design rainfalls from 2 to 500 year ARIs of the study were based on study undertaken by Australian Water Engineering (AWE) in 1998 (Ref 4) and CRC-FORGE (Ref 6). In early 2015 the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released a new IFD (2013) design rainfalls as part of the revision of Engineers Australia’s design handbook ‘Australian Rainfall and Runoff: A Guide to Flood Estimation’. The revision of temporal patterns, areal reduction factors and losses are yet to be released. In June 2015, the 2014 calibrated Pimpama hydrological model was used to run all the design events using rainfalls obtained from the BOM’s new IFD 2013 tables. This addendum needs to be read in-conjunction with the original report of Pimpama River Catchment Hydrological Study, December 2014. 3. Project Details 3.1 Adopted Model parameters As mentioned, the 2014 calibrated Pimpama River Hydrological is used for this study. Table 1 shows adopted global catchment and channel parameters. Table 1: Adopted catchment and channel parameters (source: City 2014a – Ref 1) Parameter Adopted Value (Channel Lag Parameter) 03. (Catchment Lag Parameter) 3.0 m (Catchment non-linearity Parameter) 0.75 F (Forest Factor) F*0.5 3.2 Rainfall Intensity The methodologies used in this study to use the new IFD 2013 are: The new BOM IFD tables are transformed to ARI’s and extrapolated to ARI 2000 using a fitted GEV distribution
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