qr. 3. 2018 no. 6 ISSN 2543-9839 EVENTS www.warsawinstitute.org Editorial Dear Readers, special geopolitical relationship is coming to an end before our very eyes: an old union, now almost 70 years old; an unusual relationship, because it is one between the defeated and the winner; Aa union that has brought many benefits, and not only to both these sides. This is how Grzegorz Kuczyński, an expert from The Warsaw Institute Foundation, diagnoses the geopolitical situation by looking at the current relations between between the United States and Germany. It is indeed hard to shake off the impression that this relationship is crucial for the current distribution of power, not only for Europe but for the entire world including Central Europe. Experts point out that the crisis in the European Union is multifaceted and that indeed we are witnessing the simultaneous occurrence of many crises: the crisis in the eurozone, the crisis in the context of pursuing a common foreign and security policy, the migration crisis, Brexit, and the growing threat and occurences of terrorist attacks. These trends have consequences for all members of the European community and increasingly call into question the effectiveness of EU leadership. EU countries with less economic potential, on the other hand, have little chance of resisting the pressure of European bureaucracy, which only increases a lack of trust towards EU institutions. In this issue of the Western Report, we examine the situation in Europe in its various aspects, focusing largely on geopolitics, demographics, and economics. 3/2018 3 Editorial I can refer here to an article by Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse who analyzed geopolitical changes in the EU, drawing attention to The their political, social, and economic dimensions. Warsaw Institute Given the discussion on the location of the monument Review commemorating the victims of the Katyń massacre in New Jersey, it seems fitting to recall (in the History section) several © Copyright 2018 episodes from the history of Poland, which, as it turns out, are Warsaw Institute, little known to the general public. In particular, I would like Warsaw, Poland to recommend two articles on the preservation of the memory of the Warsaw Uprising (written by Katarzyna Utracka) Editor-in-Chief and on the pillaging of collections of works of art in Warsaw Anna Karolina Piekarska during the first months of the German occupation [email protected] (written by Mariusz Klarecki). Associate editor Rafał Zgorzelski Translations Aleksandra Tomaszewska We wish you a pleasant read. Proofreading Alba Editing Anna Karolina Piekarska Cover and Layout Editor-in-Chief Katarzyna Dinwebel Jacek Kotela The Warsaw Institute Review DTP and Printing www.sindruk.pl Publisher Warsaw Institute Wilcza 9, 00-538 Warsaw, Poland www.WarsawInstitute.org [email protected] Editorial office The Warsaw Institute Review Wilcza 9 Public purpose co-financed by the Co-financed by the Minister of 00-538 Warsaw, Poland Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic Culture and National Heritage of Poland in the competition “Cooperation from the Promotion of Culture www.WarsawInstitute.Review in the Field of Public Diplomacy 2018”. Fund. The opinions given and the positions held in the materials published in the Warsaw Institute Review solely reflect the views of the authors and cannot be equated with the official position Ministry of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Foreign Aff airs of the Republic of Poland and Republic of Poland Ministry of Culture and National Heritage of the Republic of Poland. Partner: ISSN 2543-9839 4 The Warsaw Institute Review CONteNTS W26ESTERN REPORT GEOPOLITICS57 H89ISTORY Krzysztof Rak: Paweł Ozdoba: Juliette Bretan: The New European The unfinished mission – The map of new Europe Constellation President Lech Kaczyński's 1918/1919: the challenges foreign policy of independence for Poland WESTERN REPORT GEOPOLITICS Grzegorz Kuczyński, Paweł Ozdoba, Germany-USA: a discrepancy The unfinished mission – protocol with Russia in the President Lech Kaczyński's 6 background 57 foreign policy WESTERN REPORT EASTERN REPORT Tomasz Grzegorz Grosse, PhD, Robert Rajczyk, PhD, Poland in the face The Land of Miracles of geopolitical changes 67 18 in Western Europe EASTERN REPORT WESTERN REPORT Robert Rajczyk, PhD, Krzysztof Rak, 79 From pariah to leader? 26 The New European Constellation HISTORY WESTERN REPORT Piotr Kwiatkiewicz, PhD, Juliette Bretan, The dynamics of demographic The map of new Europe 1918/1919: changes in the Middle the challenges of independence East and immigration 89 for Poland to Europe 32 CULTURE WESTERN REPORT Mariusz Klarecki, PhD, Łukasz Czernicki, Art Collections in Bombed Let’s not hurry with Poland’s 99 Warsaw September 1939 41 Eurozone membership WESTERN REPORT HISTORY Marcin Kraśniewski, Katarzyna Utracka, The Role of Electromobility in The Warsaw Uprising: 48 Modern Economies 112 A Fight for Remembrance 3/2018 5 Western Report GermANy-USA: A diScrepANCY prOTOCOL witH RUSSIA IN THE BAckgrOUND Grzegorz Kuczyński A special geopolitical relationship is coming to an end before our very eyes: an old union, now almost 70 years old. It represents an unusual relationship, as it is one between the defeated and the winner: a union that has brought many benefits, and not only to both these sides. he agreement between the formula for cooperation. This is important United States and the Federal for every country in Europe, but, in the Republic of Germany has context of the Russian threat, this is of been beneficial to the entire particular importance for the countries of TEurope, and to the West in general. The Central and Eastern Europe. current format of cooperation is now exhausted – and it is not Donald Trump “Ich bin ein Berliner”: the words spoken who is responsible for destroying this in June 1963 by US President John F. connection; rather, he is only trying to Kennedy may symbolize decades of the diagnose the problem and expects it to exemplary German-American alliance. be resolved. Washington's relations with The Alliance was undoubtedly the key to Berlin may continue to deteriorate or, on peace and security in the Old Continent, the contrary, may result in finding a new especially during the Cold War. West 6 The Warsaw Institute Review Germany-USA: a discrepancy protocol with Russia... © CHRISTIAN BRUNA (PAP/EPA) BRUSSELS, BELGIUM, JULY 11, 2018. CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY, ANGELA MERKEL (TOP), WALKS PAST US PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP (R) AND US FIRST LADY MELANIA TRUMP DURING THE FAMILY PHOTO IN FRONT OF THE ARCADES DU CINQUANTENAIRE, DURING THE NATO SUMMIT. HEADS OF STATES AND GOVERNMENTS OF NATO MEMBER COUNTRIES GATHERED IN BRUSSELS ON 11 AND 12 JULY 2018 FOR A TWO-DAY MEETING. 3/2018 7 Western Report Germany was the central frontier of the West's defense, but on the other hand, of this special relationship with the United In the US presidential States. This protective umbrella provided by the Americans enabled Germany to campaign, there were quickly recover from the destructions of war which then led to impressive accusations in Trump’s economic development. Therefore, it may be regarded as somewhat ironic that power base that one of the main sources of their current dispute concerns economics. Clinton was, indeed, an “American Merkel However, the discrepancy protocol is ”. much longer, which means that German- American relations must be reorganized. values, I offer close cooperation to the This does not mean, though, that Donald future president of the United States of Trump's current aim is to isolate and America, Donald Trump” – such words, weaken Germany. All the more so, it is not uttered by Angela Merkel the day after a foregone conclusion that Washington's the elections in the USA, suggested that disputes with Berlin will result in a according to Berlin, all these standards permanent weakening of Europe and the were now under threat by the fact that transatlantic alliance. Since the shock Trump was in power. It seems that the victory of Trump in November 2016, the German Chancellor made the same reaction of the German elite, the media, mistake as many other politicians, by and public opinion has been a mixture admitting that she was counting on a of moralization combined with hysteria different candidate and denying the as well as, most of all, disappointment at winner from the very start. Perhaps the defeat of Hillary Clinton: “Germany Merkel had forgotten that she was now and America are bound by values – dealing with the leader of the greatest democracy, freedom, as well as respect power in the world. for the rule of law and the dignity of the individual, regardless of their origin, skin In the US presidential campaign, there color, creed, gender, sexual orientation, were accusations in Trump’s power base or political views. On the basis of these that Clinton was, indeed, an “American Merkel.” The German Chancellor was a tried and tested ally of Barack Obama, the fact of which could disqualify her in This protective umbrella the eyes of Trump. Merkel also pursues an immigration policy that is entirely provided by the Americans at odds with the ideas of the current US President. She opposed Trump on trade enabled Germany to and climate change at the G7 and G20 summits in 2017. In May 2017, she said quickly recover from the that Europe could no longer rely on the Americans. Meanwhile, she survived a destructions of war which humiliatingly short and dry visit to the USA in April 2018. She does not react to then led to impressive the attacks of the new US Ambassador economic development. to Berlin, Richard Grenell. She survived 8 The Warsaw Institute Review Germany-USA: a discrepancy protocol with Russia... Trump's attacks at the Brussels summit. The reason for Trump's aversion towards Merkel cannot be underestimated. In The main accusation the case of this president, we clearly see an increase in the importance of the made by Trump of personalization of politics at the highest level, as evidenced by the summits in Germany, is in a sense Singapore and Helsinki.