Disruptive Innovation and Naval Power: Strategic and Financial Implications of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) and Long-term Underwater Power Sources MASSACHUsf TTT IMef0hrE OF TECHNOLOGY by Richard Winston Larson MAY 0 8 201 S.B. Engineering LIBRARIES Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012 Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY February 2014 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2014. All rights reserved. 2) Author Dep.atment of Mechanical Engineering nuaryL5.,3014 Certified by.... Y Douglas P. Hart Professor of Mechanical Engineering Tbesis Supervisor A ccepted by ....................... ........ David E. Hardt Ralph E. and Eloise F. Cross Professor of Mechanical Engineering 2 Disruptive Innovation and Naval Power: Strategic and Financial Implications of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) and Long-term Underwater Power Sources by Richard Winston Larson Submitted to the Department of Mechanical Engineering on January 15, 2014, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering Abstract The naval warfare environment is rapidly changing. The U.S. Navy is adapting by continuing its blue-water dominance while simultaneously building brown-water ca- pabilities. Unmanned systems, such as unmanned airborne drones, are proving piv- otal in facing new battlefield challenges. Unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) are emerging as the Navy's seaborne equivalent of the Air Force's drones. Representing a low-end disruptive technology relative to traditional shipborne operations, UUVs are becoming capable of taking on increasingly complex roles, tipping the scales of battlefield entropy. They improve mission outcomes and operate for a fraction of the cost of traditional operations. Furthermore, long-term underwater power sources at currently under development at MIT will extend UUV range and operational en- durance by an order of magnitude. Installing these systems will not only allow UUVs to complete new, previously impossible missions, but will also radically decrease costs. I explore the financial and strategic implications of UUVs and long-term underwater power sources to the Navy and its future operations. By examining current naval op- erations and the ways in which UUVs could complement or replace divers and ships, I identify ways to use UUV technology to reduce risk to human life, decrease costs, and leverage the technology learning curve. I conclude that significant cost savings are immediately available with the widespread use of UUVs, and current research investment levels are inadequate in comparison with the risks and rewards of UUV programs. Thesis Supervisor: Douglas P. Hart Title: Professor of Mechanical Engineering 3 4 Acknowledgments I am deeply indebted to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the profound impact it has had on my life. My more than five years at the Institute have been a for- mative and defining time. I thank those in the Department of Mechanical Engineering who taught and inspired me on my journey at MIT. Professor Douglas Hart has been the perfect mentor. He has pushed me to employ my strengths, improve my weaknesses, and pursue my academic interests. My thesis is a reflection of his academic leadership ability. Without his insight, hard work, and friendship, I would not have had the opportunity to chase my dreams. My friends and family made my work possible. I thank Professor Roger Porter, Brandon Hopkins, Nathaniel Coughran, Jonathan Sue Ho, and Tom Milnes for their friendship and wisdom. I thank my parents, Gordon and Allison Larson, for their generosity and love. Finally, I thank my wife, Sarah, for being the best thing that ever happened to me. 5 6 Executive Summary As the U.S. Military maintains readiness to wage war with traditional nation-states as well as with terrorist groups, unmanned and autonomous systems are revolution- izing warfare. Aerial drones have been wildly successful, and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) are an opportunity for the U.S. Navy to increase its capability and effectiveness in a similar way under the sea. For more information, see Section 1.1. Unmanned Underwater Vehicles Unmanned underwater vehicles are used in a variety of military, scientific, and in- dustrial settings. There are three classes of UUVs: autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), and underwater gliders. The diversity of vehicle types and sizes offers flexibility in application and deployment, a key benefit to using UUVs. For more information, see Section 1.2.1. Long-term power sources will drastically improve the usefulness of the UUV tech- nologies. An aluminum-based power source being developed at MIT under the direc- tion of Professor Doug Hart is projected to offer an energy density of 8000 MJ/L, a 1000% improvement over current energy storage technologies. The improved range and power capabilities of UUVs equipped with such a power source will be a strategic advantage. For more information, see Section 1.2.2. 7 Disruptive Innovation and Battlefield Entropy Disruptive innovations are those which improve a product along new performance metrics. Disruptive technologies improve through sustaining innovation (improve- ment along existing performance metrics) to displace existing technologies. Disruptive innovation plays an important role in maintaining combat superiority. Submarines, aerial drones, and cruise missiles are all examples of disruptive military innovations. There is significant first-mover advantage in adopting and skillfully managing disrup- tive innovation. For more information, see Section 2.1. Unmanned underwater vehicles are disrupting manned sea platforms. Though they are in many ways not as capable as ships or divers, they offer improved perfor- mance in cost, difficulty of detection, and flexibility. Not only are UUVs an opportu- nity, but they are also a threat. Other navies are also investing in UUVs, including Russia, China, and Thailand, as well as drug cartels and terrorist groups. For more information, see Section 2.2. Battlefield entropy measures the difference between an entity's ideal fighting force and its actual combat effectiveness. Even if a combat entity possesses superior force, or is not experiencing attrition, its combat effectiveness will decrease as the entropy it experiences increases. Weapon systems (broadly defined as any element providing force) decrease battlefield entropy for the user and increase entropy for the opponent. Given a more effective weapon, a greater change in entropy will be experienced. Disruptive military innovations represent characteristic improvements in battlefield entropy, and UUVs offer a unique opportunity for the Navy to change battlefield entropy in its favor. For more information, see Section 2.3. Disruptive innovation must be skillfully managed to realize its full potential. Four theories (jobs-to-be-done theory, market/application identification, discovery-driven planning, and resource-process-value theory) provide best practices for identifying, adopting, and applying disruptive innovations well. For more information, see Section 2.4. 8 UUV Mission Cost Analysis and Comparison To demonstrate the disruptive power of UUVs, I analyzed the costs of missions that can be completed using current UUV technology. I examined the mission scenarios, the cost of completing the mission using manned systems, and the cost of completing the mission using UUVs. I compared the costs and analyzed the advantages of using UUV technologies. In the table below, I present the percent cost savings experienced by using UUV technologies rather than manned systems. In general, UUV systems are roughly an order of magnitude (90% cost savings) less expensive than manned systems. For more information, see Chapter 3. Mission Percent Savings CBNRE 93% Water Column Profiling 99% High Definition 76% Mapping (High Definition) Medium Definition 93% Low Definition 93% Harbor Monitoring 98% Array Deployment 88% Mine-hunting 92% Hold-at-risk 96% ASW Training 81% Attached Materials 54% Hull Inspection (Panamax) In-ater Sury In-water Survey 67% Undersea Infrastructure 86% Implications of UUV Adoption In conclusion, I offer several observations on UUVs and their disruptive potential to naval operations: " UUVs offer significant cost savings " Manned platforms are expensive " Aluminum power sources are an important step forward 9 " UUVs are not one-size-fits-all " UUVs represent a significant change in battlefield entropy " Nonconsumption and overshooting offer many immediate UUV applications " The low costs and disruptive nature of UUVs will make them attractive to other navies and entities For more information, see Chapter 4. Unmanned underwater vehicles will revolutionize naval warfare. Proper innova- tion management and early, enthusiastic adoption is required to seize their strategic potential and maintain maritime superiority. 10 Contents 1 Introduction 19 1.1 Technology and the Changing Face of Naval Warfare ... .... .. 19 1.2 Technological Advances in Naval Warfare .... ..... .... ... 20 1.2.1 Unmanned Underwater Vehicles .. ..... .... .... .. 20 1.2.2 Long-term Underwater Aluminum Power Source ..... ... 24 2 Disruptive Innovation in Naval Technology 27 2.1 A Brief Introduction to Disruptive Innovation .... ...... ... 27 2.1.1 Disruptive Innovation Example: RCA, Sony, and the Transistor 29 2.2