DOCSLIB.ORG

A Rocky Road: Kurdish Oil & Independence

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
A Rocky Road: Kurdish Oil & Independence ARockyRoad:Kurdish Oil&Independence 19February2018 PublicationNumber:IEI190218 ARockyRoad:Kurdish Oil&Independence 19February2018 @IraqEnergy facebook.com/IraqEnergy www.iraqenergy.org [email protected] Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthorsʼsoleresponsibility.Theydonotnecessarilyrepresent theviewsoftheIraqEnergyInstituteoranyofitsmembers. Thispublicationmaybereproducedinpartforeducationalornon-profitpurposeswithout specialpermissionfromthecopyrightholder,providedacknowledgmentofthesourceismade. Nouseofthispublicationmaybemadeforresaleorforanyothercommercialpurposewhatsoever withoutpriorpermissioninwritingfromtheIraqEnergyInstitute. *Non-ResidentFellowattheIraqEnergyInstituteandCEOofQamarEnergy(Dubai). Copyright©2018IraqEnergyInstitute Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Political and Petroleum History of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq...................................................................... 3 2.1. Political history ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2. Politics in the KRI ........................................................................................................................................................... 10 2.3. Petroleum history.......................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.4. The onslaught of ISIS: 2014 and beyond ......................................................................................................... 17 3. The KRI’s Hydrocarbon Sector ........................................................................................................................................... 25 3.1. Geography ........................................................................................................................................................................ 25 3.2. Petroleum geology ...................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.3. Reserves and resources ............................................................................................................................................. 28 3.4. Production-sharing contracts ................................................................................................................................ 31 3.5. Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................................................... 34 3.6. Oil production, demand, and exports ............................................................................................................... 36 3.7. Gas production, demand, and exports ............................................................................................................. 43 3.8. Exports and finances ................................................................................................................................................... 45 4. Politics and Petroleum in the KRI since 2005 ........................................................................................................... 53 4.1. The KRI’s political economy .................................................................................................................................... 53 4.2. Constitutional and legal position of KRI oil .................................................................................................... 54 4.3. The IOCs .............................................................................................................................................................................. 57 4.4. Oil, gas, and external relations ............................................................................................................................... 59 5. Conclusions: The Future of the KRI’s Hydrocarbon Industry ........................................................................... 63 6. References .................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 | ii Table of Figures Figure 1 Political and military boundaries of the Kurdish region of Iraq (as of April 2015) ............................ 12 Figure 2 Early exploration in the KRI .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Figure 3 Division of KRI into exploration blocks ...................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 4 PSCs awarded in KRI by 2006 .......................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 5 PSCs awarded in the KRI, end-2008 ............................................................................................................................ 17 Figure 6 PSCs awarded in the KRI, December 2012 .............................................................................................................. 17 Figure 7 Location of sectors of Kirkuk-area fields ................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 8 KRI oil and gas infrastructure (note that many of the block boundaries and names have changed subsequently) ........................................................................................................................................................................ 34 Figure 9 Oil infrastructure and political control in the KRI and northern Iraq ........................................................ 35 Figure 10 KRG oil exports by destination, October-December 2017 .......................................................................... 37 Figure 11 Oil production in the KRG from MNR reported figures (Jan-15 to Sept-16) ..................................... 39 Figure 12 KRG production forecast ................................................................................................................................................ 41 | iii Acknowledgements I would like to thank Luay Al Khatteeb and the team at Iraq Energy Institute for inviting me to contribute this paper on the evolving Kurdish oil situation. I also express my appreciation to Bassam Fattouh and Laura El-Katiri for their support of my earlier (2015) paper on the topic. I express my thanks to those with whom I have worked on Kurdish and Iraqi oil and gas issues, who provided comments for this paper, or whose reporting and analysis has helped make sense of a fast-moving and complex picture. In particular, I acknowledge analysis provided by Ahmed Tabaqchali; the great efforts of the team at Iraq Oil Report, especially Patrick Osgood, Ben Van Heuvelen, and Ben Lando; Shwan Zulal; Norman Ricklefs; Luay Al Khatteeb; Isabel Coles; and Akiko Yoshioka. I also thank Emile Hokayem, Mike Stephens, Michael Knights, and Martin Chulov, in helping to inform my understanding of the wider regional picture, and Kirk Sowell, Reidar Visser, Fanar Haddad, Cale Salih, Joel Wing, and many others for their writings. Roa Ibrahim’s extensive research assistance has been invaluable. I apologize to anyone I may have inadvertently omitted to acknowledge. Robin Mills, Qamar Energy, Dubai, February 2018 | iv 1. Introduction The referendum on independence for the hitherto autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)1, held on 25th September 2017, has brought global attention. It is well-understood that the region’s oil and gas resources are a critical factor for its future and for its neighbourhood. Along with the referendum, there have been important recent political, military, economic and industry developments concerning the KRI. This report is therefore intended to build on my earlier study for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies2, and to bring the story up to date from the start of 2016. It should be read in conjunction with the earlier study, as I do not here cover all of the historical and background material. Despite knowledge of the presence of oil dating back to ancient times, the history of the KRI’s petroleum industry essentially goes back no further than 2005. The presence of larger oil-fields elsewhere in Iraq, and political problems, insurgency and repression in Kurdistan, particularly under the Saddam Hussein regime, prevented most hydrocarbon exploration and development. However, Kirkuk, where oil was discovered in huge quantities in 1927, though not part of the official KRI, also voted in the referendum. Various other outlying areas with petroleum resources also came under KRG control, particularly since the onslaught of ISIS3 in 2014 and the subsequent counter-offensive, and with Kirkuk, were then returned to federal government control in October 2017. These areas are also covered here. Since 2014, the difficulties caused by lower oil prices, the KRI’s economic crisis, ISIS and industry disappointments have quietened media discussion of the region’s oil industry. Much good political analysis has been produced, but understanding the KRI’s
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Official General Report on Northern Iraq (April 2000) Contents Page
    Official general report on Northern Iraq (April 2000) Contents Page 1. Introduction 4 2. Information on the country 6 2.1. Basic facts 6 2.1.1. Country and people 6 2.1.2. History 8 2.2. System of government 17 2.3. Political developments 20 2.3.1. Internal relations 20 2.3.2. External forces 31 2.4. Security situation 36 2.5. Social and economic situation 48 2.6. Conclusions 53 3. Human rights 55 3.1. Safeguards 55 3.1.1. Constitution 55 3.1.2. Other national legislation 55 3.1.3. Conventions 56 3.2. Monitoring 56 3.3. Respect and violations 58 3.3.1. Freedom of opinion 58 3.3.2. Freedom of association and of assembly 59 3.3.3. Freedom of religion 60 3.3.4. Freedom of movement 73 3.3.5. Judicial process 83 3.3.6. Arrest and detention 84 3.3.7. Maltreatment and torture 87 3.3.8. Extra-judicial executions and murders 87 10804/00 dre/LG/mc 2 DG H I EN 3.3.9. Death penalty 87 3.4. Position of specific groups 88 3.4.1. Turkmens 88 3.4.2. Staff of international organisations 91 3.4.3. Conscripts, deserters and servicemen 96 3.4.4. Independent intellectuals and journalists 98 3.4.5. Prominent political activists 99 3.4.6. Fayli Kurds 99 3.4.7. Women 101 3.4.8. Orphaned minors 104 3.5. Summary 104 4. Refugees and displaced persons 106 4.1. Motives 106 4.2.
    [Show full text]
  • The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq
    The Politics of Security in Ninewa: Preventing an ISIS Resurgence in Northern Iraq Julie Ahn—Maeve Campbell—Pete Knoetgen Client: Office of Iraq Affairs, U.S. Department of State Harvard Kennedy School Faculty Advisor: Meghan O’Sullivan Policy Analysis Exercise Seminar Leader: Matthew Bunn May 7, 2018 This Policy Analysis Exercise reflects the views of the authors and should not be viewed as representing the views of the US Government, nor those of Harvard University or any of its faculty. Acknowledgements We would like to express our gratitude to the many people who helped us throughout the development, research, and drafting of this report. Our field work in Iraq would not have been possible without the help of Sherzad Khidhir. His willingness to connect us with in-country stakeholders significantly contributed to the breadth of our interviews. Those interviews were made possible by our fantastic translators, Lezan, Ehsan, and Younis, who ensured that we could capture critical information and the nuance of discussions. We also greatly appreciated the willingness of U.S. State Department officials, the soldiers of Operation Inherent Resolve, and our many other interview participants to provide us with their time and insights. Thanks to their assistance, we were able to gain a better grasp of this immensely complex topic. Throughout our research, we benefitted from consultations with numerous Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) faculty, as well as with individuals from the larger Harvard community. We would especially like to thank Harvard Business School Professor Kristin Fabbe and Razzaq al-Saiedi from the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative who both provided critical support to our project.
    [Show full text]
  • Seismic Reflections | 5 August 2011
    1 | Edison Investment Research | Seismic reflections | 5 August 2011 Seismic reflections Confidence in Kurdistan grows Iraq, including the autonomous Kurdistan region, probably has the world’s largest concentration of untapped, easily recoverable oil reserves. Pioneering moves were made into Kurdistan in the 2000s by the likes of Gulf Keystone and Hunt Oil, with considerable drill-bit success. In late July, two important Kurdistan exploration and development deals were announced. These involve Afren acquiring interests in two PSCs with sizeable contingent reserves and a Hess-Petroceltic partnership signing two PSCs for exploration purposes. With increasing production and Analysts improving relations between the regional and Iraqi federal governments, Ian McLelland +44 (0)20 3077 5756 these deals reflect growing confidence in Kurdistan’s potential as a major Peter J Dupont +44 (0)20 3077 5741 new petroleum province. Elaine Reynolds +44 (0)20 3077 5700 Krisztina Kovacs +44 (0)20 3077 5700 Anatomy of the Kurdistan oil province [email protected] 6,000 Kurdistan is located in the North Arabian basin and is on same fairway as the 5,500 prolific oilfields of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, Kuwait, southern Iraq and Syria. 5,000 4,500 The geological backdrop to Kurdistan tends to be simple and is characterised by 4,000 3,500 large anticlinal structures, deep organic-rich sediments and carbonate reservoirs 3,000 mainly of Jurassic to Cretaceous age. Drilling commenced in the region in 2006. So far, 28 wells have been drilled, of which 20 have been discoveries, resulting in A pr/11 Oct/10 Jun/11 Fe b/11 Aug/10 Dec/10 Aug/11 estimated reserves of over 5.8bn boe.
    [Show full text]
  • Kurdish Oppression Against Assyrians
    Oppression, Assassination, Torture, Harassment, Unfair, and Undemocratic Acts by Kurds and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Against the Assyrians (also known as Chaldeans and Suryan) in North of Iraq. Compiled by Fred Aprim (ZINDA) After the 1991 uprising, Assyrians had good working relations with the various political groups in North Iraq. All the same, elections in the spring of 1992 would be a harbinger of problems to come - ultra-nationalists among some Kurdish parties tried and succeeded in exerting their influence over any Assyrian involvement in North Iraqi politics by creating a puppet "Christian Kurdish" party linked to the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the so-called United Kurdistan Christians (UKC). (http://www.zindamagazine.com/html/archives/2002/6.3.02/index.php#ZindaSays) (ATOUR) In 1992 some intellectual Assyrians published a communiqué, in it they warned against the continuous process of the Kurdification of the Iraqi people in north of Iraq. Then the ethnic and linguistic map of northern Iraq was not as it is today; some ten years after the no-fly zone has been established. For its importance, here is a passage from that communiqué: “The Kurdish leadership, and in a well-planned program, had begun to settle Kurds and in large numbers around Assyrian regions like Sarsank, Barwari Bala and others. This Kurdish housing project was naturally to change the demographic, economic, and civic structure of the Christian regions in only few short years; a process that forced the Christian to emigrate as the vacant homes were overtaken by the Kurds.” (http://www.atour.com/news/assyria/20030617a.html) (ATOUR) Francis Yusuf Shabo: born 1951 in Mangesh (Duhok Province), married with four children.
    [Show full text]
  • Christians and Yazidis in Iraq: Current Situation and Prospects
    OTMAR OEHRING CHRISTIANS AND YAZIDIS IN IRAQ: CURRENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OTMAR OEHRING CHRISTIANS AND YAZIDIS IN IRAQ: CURRENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS Published by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation Cover photo: © Ibrahim Shaba Lallo, Qaraqosh (currently Ashti Camp, Ankawa, Autonomous Region of Kurdistan) Caption of cover photo: Vertically: We work together Horizontally: We are proud Diagonally: We love, we forgive .(nun), stand for Nazara (Christ) ن The three Arabic characters, starting with The black IS flag bears the words: There is no God but Allah Allah Prophet Mohammed Islamic State in Iraq and As-Sham (i.e. Syria) Published by: Konrad Adenauer Foundation 2017, Sankt Augustin and Berlin, Germany This publication has been licensed under the terms and conditions of Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 Germany (CC BY-SA 3.0 DE), website: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de/deed.en Design: SWITSCH Kommunikationsdesign, Cologne, Germany Typesetting: Janine Höhle, Communications Department, Konrad Adenauer Foundation Printed by: Bonifatius GmbH, Paderborn, Germany Printed in Germany Printed with financial support from the German Federal Government ISBN 978-3-95721-328-0 CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. Legal Framework 2.1 International law 2.2 National law 3. Reduced scope for non-Muslim minorities after 2003 3.1 Drastic decline in the non-Muslim minorities’ share of the population 3.2 Changes in Baghdad’s religious power structure 4. Crucial for the future of Iraq: the recapture of Mosul 4.1 Capture of Mosul by the IS in June 2014 4.2 Capture of Yazidi settlements in Sinjar District by the IS in August 2014 4.3 Capture of Christian settlements in the Nineveh Plains by the IS in August 2014 4.4 Classification of the IS attacks on religious minorities as genocide 4.5 Campaign to retake Mosul 5.
    [Show full text]
  • “Barriers to Post-ISIS Reconciliation in Iraq: Case Study of Tel Afar, Ninewa” by Sarah Sanbar Under the Supervision of Prof
    “Barriers to post-ISIS reconciliation in Iraq: Case study of Tel Afar, Ninewa” By Sarah Sanbar Under the supervision of Professor Stéphane Lacroix Sciences Po Spring 2020 This paper has received the Kuwait Program at Sciences Po Student Paper Award The copyright of this paper remains the property of its author. No part of the content may be reproduced, published, distributed, copied or stored for public or private use without written permission of the author. All authorisation requests should be sent to [email protected] BARRIERS TO POST-ISIS RECONCILIATION IN IRAQ Case Study of Tel Afar, Ninewa Instructor: Stéphane LACROIX Final Assignment: The Political Sociology of the State in the Contemporary Arab World Date: 30/04/2020 Sarah Sanbar Sanbar - 1 Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 2 Literature Review ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Case Study: Tel Afar, Ninewa .................................................................................................................... 5 Context and Demographics ....................................................................................................................... 5 ISIS Occupation, Displacement, and the Liberation Operation ................................................................ 6 Barriers to Post-ISIS Reconciliation in Tel
    [Show full text]
  • The Mineral Industry of Iraq in 2012
    2012 Minerals Yearbook IRAQ U.S. Department of the Interior May 2015 U.S. Geological Survey THE MINERAL INDUSTRY OF IRAQ By Mowafa Taib Iraq was a significant supplier of crude oil to the world in steel imports was 4 Mt in 2012 (Annous, 2012; International 2012 and was the world’s ninth-ranked producer in terms Monetary Fund, 2013, p. 25; Organization of the Petroleum of volume. The country produced 3.1 million barrels per Exporting Countries, 2013, p. 55, 82; World Steel Association, day (Mbbl/d) of crude oil and condensate and accounted 2013, p. 26). for 3.7% of the world’s total output. Iraq, which exported 2.43 Mbbl/d of crude oil in 2012, was the world’s fourth-ranked Government Policies and Programs crude oil exporter after Saudi Arabia (7.56 Mbbl/d), Russia The Iraq Geological Survey (Geosurv-Iraq) identified (5.86 Mbbl/d), and the United Arab Emirates (2.66 Mbbl/d). 12 investment opportunities in the industrial mining sector in The country’s proved crude oil reserves, which were estimated Iraq and called for investors to develop mining operations under to be 150.1 billion barrels (Gbbl) and accounted for 9.0% of Investment Law No. 13 of 2006 and its modifications and Law the world’s total reserves, ranked Iraq as the fifth country in of Mineral Investment No. 91 of 1988. These potential projects the world in terms of the volume of petroleum reserves after were phosphate rock mining and beneficiation at the Al Hirri Venezuela (297.6 Gbbl), Saudi Arabia (265.9 Gbbl), Canada Wadi in Al Anbar Governorate and the Swab Wadi; a mining (173.9 Gbbl), and Iran (157.0 Gbbl).
    [Show full text]
  • THE 11Th March, 2013 EARTHQUAKE in NORTH of MOSUL VICINITY, NORTH IRAQ
    Iraqi Bulletin of Geology and Mining Vol.10, No.1, 2014 p 59 − 72 THE 11th March, 2013 EARTHQUAKE IN NORTH OF MOSUL VICINITY, NORTH IRAQ 1 1 1 Jamal Gh. Mohammed , Ayda D. Abdul Ahad and Basim R. Jabbo Received: 19/ 05/ 2013, Accepted: 28/ 11/ 2013 Keywords: Earthquake, Shocks, Seismicity, Mosul, Iraq ABSTRACT Iraq is located in the northeastern corner of the Arabian Plate, which is in collision with the Iranian (Eurasian) Plate. The contact between the two plates exhibits active seismicity forming active Zagros Seismic Belt. Mosul city and surroundings, although being far enough from this active seismic belt, still suffer from many earthquakes, which can be felt in a diameter of about 100 Km, the center being in Mosul city. On the 11th of March 2013, at 5:58 pm, Monday a shock was felt in Mosul city and its surroundings to the northeast, north and northwest. The shock lasted for 5 seconds and was registered in Mosul Seismological Center with magnitude of 4.9 degrees on Richter scale. Two other shocks were recorded after few days. People in the villages located north of Mosul have heard high roaring, which accompanied the shock. Many old buildings, among them the church of Tell Asquf village was cracked and the plaster of the church's dome fell down in fragments. Many other mud huts and some buildings showed severe cracks in many other villages. No rupturing on the Earth's surface was reported in the involved areas. No live causalities and/ or wounded people were reported. In this study, the historic seismicity of Mosul and near surroundings is reviewed.
    [Show full text]
  • QUO VADIS, NINEWA? Iraq and Its International Partners, Meeting In
    POLICY BRIEF | FEBRUARY 2018 QUO VADIS, NINEWA? KEY SOCIAL COHESION CONCERNS IN THE IRAQI GOVERNORATE FOR 2018 Understanding the complex social fabric of Ninewa Governorate is critical to ensuring that reconstruction in one of the most heavily ISIS affected areas in Iraq is not simply rebuilding over shaky foundations. Key issues coming into even sharper focus in 2018 in this regard include: reconstruction and restitution of housing, land, and property; inequality of aid provision; old and new returnee tensions; Ezidi-Arab relations; the emerging landscape in Tal Afar; collective blame and protection; accountability for serious crimes; and militarization of the populace. Iraq and its international partners, meeting in Kuwait recently, pledged significant funds to reconstruct the country in the aftermath of the ISIS conflict. Ninewa Governorate, having borne the brunt of ISIS violations and occupation as well as military operations to remove them, is likely to be a central focus for this assistance. Rebuilding alone however will not fore- stall instability in the governorate. Even with the ouster of ISIS from Mosul City and Tal Afar in June and July 2017, thus officially ending the conflict in the country, the risk of violence re- mains high across the governorate. In the last five months, flashes of violence have occurred between Kurdish and Iraqi forces in the northern disputed areas, asymmetric ISIS attacks in the southeast, and between rival Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) in Sinjar, among others. Working in Ninewa Governorate therefore means understanding how truly multidimension- al conflicts and tensions are. It entails grappling with ethno-religious polarization, disputed territories, unredressed historical grievances, development neglect, remnants of extremism, violations from the ISIS conflict and its aftermath, and old and new forced displacement in- cluding blocked and unblocked returns – to say nothing of the potential for further upheaval in the midst of forthcoming national elections.
    [Show full text]
  • Under the Mountains: Kurdish Oil and Regional Politics
    January 2016 Under the Mountains: Kurdish Oil and Regional Politics OIES PAPER: WPM 63 Robin Mills* The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2016 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-78467-049-8 *Non-Resident Fellow for Energy at the Brookings Doha Center, CEO of Qamar Energy (Dubai) and Research Associate, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Under the Mountains: Kurdish Oil and Regional Politics i Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................. iii 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Background: a Brief History of Oil and Gas in the Kurdish Region of Iraq ................................ 2 2.1. Political history ........................................................................................................................ 2 2.2. Petroleum history ...................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • EMERGING LAND TENURE ISSUES AMONG DISPLACED YAZIDIS from SINJAR, IRAQ How Chances of Return May Be Further Undermined by a Discrimination Policy Dating Back 40 Years
    EMERGING LAND TENURE ISSUES AMONG DISPLACED YAZIDIS FROM SINJAR, IRAQ How chances of return may be further undermined by a discrimination policy dating back 40 years November 2015 EMERGING LAND TENURE ISSUES AMONG DISPLACED YAZIDIS FROM SINJAR, IRAQ How chances of return may be further undermined by a discrimination policy dating back 40 years November 2015 Copyright © United Nations Human Settlements Programme in Iraq (UN-HABITAT) 2015 All rights reserved United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) www.unhabitat.org DISCLAIMER The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any county, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries regarding its economic system or degree of development. Excerpts may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme, the United Nations and its member states. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The content of this report was investigated and developed by a purposely-setup team of researchers which included the following: Mr. Mohamed Maseer Al Rubai’y (Coordinator Researcher), Ms Mayada Daood, Mr Khalaf Haji Hamad and Mr F. R., Mr K. J. and Mr M. Sh. in the IDP camps (full names omitted for security reasons). Editorial and research support was provided by Ms Anna Soave and Ms Bozhan Hawizy. The UN-Habitat team would like to warmly thank the following public officials: Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Toward a Grand Bargain on Iraq and the Kurds
    OIL FOR SOIL: TOWARD A GRAND BARGAIN ON IRAQ AND THE KURDS Middle East Report N°80 – 28 October 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. THE DISPUTED TERRITORIES CONUNDRUM ...................................................... 5 A. TERRITORIES IN DISPUTE .............................................................................................................5 B. A NEW UN ROLE.........................................................................................................................7 C. RESPONSES TO UNAMI’S PROPOSALS.......................................................................................11 III. ESCALATING CONFLICT OVER OIL...................................................................... 14 A. DEVELOPING KURDISTAN’S OIL WEALTH..................................................................................15 B. OIL IN KIRKUK AND OTHER DISPUTED TERRITORIES .................................................................19 C. THE BATTLE OVER THE HYDROCARBONS LAW..........................................................................23 IV. POSSIBLE COMPROMISE SOLUTIONS.................................................................. 26 A. A TERRITORIAL COMPROMISE ...................................................................................................26 B. A GRAND BARGAIN ...................................................................................................................27
    [Show full text]