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1989 UA66/8/2 Earthquake Risk Assessment for Warren County, Kentucky WKU Center for Local Government
Nicholas Crawford
Thomas Tweddell
Shaun Winter
Peter Erlenbach
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Recommended Citation WKU Center for Local Government; Crawford, Nicholas; Tweddell, Thomas; Winter, Shaun; Erlenbach, Peter; Huot, Amy; and Whittle, Grant, "UA66/8/2 Earthquake Risk Assessment for Warren County, Kentucky" (1989). WKU Archives Records. Paper 7257. https://digitalcommons.wku.edu/dlsc_ua_records/7257
This Report is brought to you for free and open access by TopSCHOLAR®. It has been accepted for inclusion in WKU Archives Records by an authorized administrator of TopSCHOLAR®. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Authors WKU Center for Local Government, Nicholas Crawford, Thomas Tweddell, Shaun Winter, Peter Erlenbach, Amy Huot, and Grant Whittle
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EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS
WARREN COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN TECHNICAL REPORT WARREN COUNTY COMPREHENSIVE PLAN TECHNICAL REPORT
EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WARREN COUNTY, KENTUCKY
DR. NICHOLAS C. CRAWFORD CONSULTANT
PREPARED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CENTER FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT WESTERN KENTUCKY UNIVERSITY EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR WARREN COUNTY, KENTUCKY
NICHOLAS C. CRAWFORD THOMAS A. TWEDDELL · SHAUN A. WINTER
Dr. Wayne Hoffman Director of the Center for Local Government, Western Kentucky University
Peter Erlenbach Cartography
Amy Huot F. Grant Whittle Design and Layout
1989
This technical report was written under the auspices of a grant from the City-County Planning Commission of Warren County. Table of Contents II
TABLE OF CONTENTS ')
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... Iv INTRODUCTION ...... 1 CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARTHQUAKE HISTORY ...... 1 THE NEW L1ADRID RIFT COMPLEX •••••••••••••••••••.•••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••.••••••••••• 3 GEOLOGIC FAULTS IN WARREN COUNTY ...... 5 POTENTIAL DAMAGE FROM LONG-PERIOD SEISMIC WAVES AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM A LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE NEW MADRID FAULT ...... 7 POTENTIAL DAMAGE IN WARREN COUNTY FROM 6.7, 7.6, AND 8.6 RICHTER EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE NEW MADRID FAULT .•.•.. 10 INCREASED HAZARDS DUE TO KARST ...... 10 Sinkhole Collapse ...... 15 Regolith Collapse ...... 15 Bedrock Collapse ...... 20 Differential Compaction ...... 23 NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE IN MAMMOTH CAVE DURING THE WINTER OF 1811-1812 ...... 23 ALLUVIAL SOILS AND SEISMIC RISKS ...... 26 AREAS OF .WARREN COUNTY MORE VULNERABLE TO SINKHOLE COLLAPSE OR SUBSIDENCE DURING A LARGE EARTHQUAKE ...... 26 CONCLUSIONS ...... · ...... 30 Probabilities for Future Earthquakes Along the New Madrid Fault and Potential Impacts on Warren County ••••...... •...•.•.••••••• 30 Karst Features as Damage Magnifiers During Large Earthquakes...... 33 RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 33 REFERENCES ...... 35
APPENDIX: MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE ...... •.•...... •.•... A 1
TABLES Table 1: Ceiling Span for Cantilever or Fixed Beam ...... 21
FIGURES Figure 1: The New Madrid Rift Complex ...... 2 Figure 2: Central U.S. Earthquake Location Map ...... 4 iii Table of Contents Executive Summary v
Figure 3: Fault Systems of Kentucky ...... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Figure 4: The Rough Creek Graben of the New Madrid Rift Complex ...... 8 The largest seismic event in U.S. history occurred along the New Madrid Rift Complex which Figure 5: Geologic Faults of Warren County ...... 9 parallels the Mississippi River along the boundaries of Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Arkan Figure 6: New Madrid Fault Intensity Scale Based Upon a sas. Between December 16, 1811 and March 15, 1812, there were five great earthquakes with estimated magnitudes above 8.0 Richter, with one of these estimated at 8.8 Richter. Warren County, 6. 7 Richter Magnitude Earthquake ...... 11 although 150 miles from the epicentral region, would suffer considerable damage from an 8.6 Richter Figure 7: New Madrid Fault Intensity Scale Based Upon a earthquake. 7.6 Richter Magnitude Earthquake ...... 12 Figure 8: New Madrid Fault Intensity Scale Based Upon a Johnson and Nava (1985) have estimated the probabilities for future, large earthquakes in the New 8.6 Richter Magnitude Earthquake ...... 13 Madrid seismic zone. They estimate that there is a 40-63% probability of 6.3 Richter event occurring by the year 2000 (within the next 10 years) and an 86-97% probability by the year 2035. A 6.3 Richter Figure 9: Areas of Warren County Recommended for quake would certainly be felt in Warren County but probably would not cause any serious damage. Increased Site-Specific Evaluation Due to Figure 6 of this report shows that on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale for a 6.7Richter earthquake, Seismic Risk ...... 14 Warren County lies on the boundary between Zone VI -STRONG (felt by all, indoors and outdoors, Figure 10: Location of Warren County with Respect to cracked plaster and overturned furniture) and VU-VERY STRONG (frightens all, general alarm, . R~gional Physiographic Setting ...... 16 cracked chimneys, considerabJe damage in poorly built buildings-see Appendix). F 1gure 11: Sinkhole Collapses in Areas with Water Table Dr. Ron Seeger (1989), Professor of Geophysics, Western Kentucky University, estimates that in Above the Regolith-Limestone Contact ...... 17 order to have any substantial damaging effect in Warren County, a major earthquake, greater than Figure 12: Sinkhole Collapses in Areas where the Water about 7.6 Richter would have to occur in the New Madrid seismic zone. He estimates the probability, Table is Below the Regolith-Lfmestone Contact ...... 18 using the Johnson and Nava (1985) data, of a 7.6 Richter quake to be about 4 to 6% by the year 2000 Figure 13: Structural Damage Resulting from Col.lapse of ' and 8 to 10% by 2035. Figure 7 of this report shows that for a 7.6 Richter earthquake, Warren County lies on the boundary between Zone VII-VERY STRONG (described above) and Zone VIII-DESTRUC a Regolith Arch ...... 19 TIVE (general fright approaching panic, changes in groundwater flow, wood structures damaged, Figure 14: Ceiling Span for Cantilever or Fixed Beam ...... 22 falling of chimneys and towers-see Appendix). Figure 15: Stress Region Above a Solµtion Cavity, . Beneath a Foundation Excavation ...... ~ .. 24 Johnson and Nava (1985) estimate the probability of a great quake, equal to the 1811-1812 Figure 16: Structural Damage Resulting from Construction earthquakes, occurring in the New Madrid seismic zone to be less than 1 % probability by the year 2000and less than4% by the year 2035. Figure8of this report shows that for an8.6Richterearthquake, . on Cutter-and-Pinnacle Karst Surface ...... 25 Warren County lies on the boundary between Zone VIII DESTRUCTIVE (described above) and IX F~gure 17: Lost River Cave Group, Bowling Green ...... 28 RUINOUS (panic general, cracked ground, damage in most all structures, pipes broken-see Figure 18: Generalized Profile of Lost River Cave Under Appendix). Bowling Green Showing Areas Where Major Earthquake prediction is still somewhat in its infancy as a science. Where g~od historic data and Cave Roof Collapses Have Occurred ...... ' ..... 29 a sound understanding of the geologic forces responsible for earthquakes exist, general time Figure 19: Location of Lost River Cave as Determined predictions of recurrence intervals are possible. With historic records extending back into the 1500s Fl by Microgravity Traverses ...... 31 and a good understanding of the geologic forces at work along plate boundaries, fairly good gure 20: Profile of Microgravity Traverse with Wells earthquake recurrance intervals and probabilities can be estimated along the San Andreas Fault in Intersecting Voids ...... 32 California. However, this is not the case along the New Madrid Fault. Areas of high seismic activity within crustal plates are rare and scientists are only beginning to understand this area. The best theory is that the rift complex, which is thought to have formed in late Precambrian to Cambrian time (1,500 toSOO million years ago), is currently experiencing compressive reactivation of some structural . features. Johnson and Nava (1985) recognized that their probabilities are contingent on a number of factors which remain assumptions because of the lack of a geological or paleoseismological chronol ogy of past New Madrid activity.
Alluvial soils along rivers can magnify earthquake damage but fortunately for Warren County, there are very few structures built upon alluvial soils. Since the faults in the northwest part of the county are believed to be inactive, karst features are believed to be the primary damage magnifiers. vi Executive Summary Executive Summary vii
Vibrating of the surface by blasting has induced the sinkhole collapse of regolith (soil) arches in other 10 years. Should the county prepare for it? A reasonable planning decision was made in 1976 that areas, causing the abandoning of a village in China (Waltham, 1989) and accounting for 4% of the the county will plan for a 100 year probability, 3-hour rain event for storm water management sinkhole collapses in a study by Williams and Vineyard (1971) in Missouri. Earthquakes which purposes. Planning for a 100 year storm, which has a 1 % probability of occurring each year, will not occurred in 1962 in Yugoslavia caused the collapse of some bedrock cave roofs and caused the only eliminate flood losses during 100 year and lesser storms, but it wiII greatly reduce flood losses bottoms of many sinkholes to open (Milanovic, 1981). when a 1000 year flood does occur. A similar planning decision is needed in preparing for an earthquake. The probability for an 8.6 There are cantilevered cave roofs in many locations under Warren County which appear to be Richter quake in the near future appears to be small and the cost of preparing for a great quake would unstable. It is possible that a large earthquake might induce the collapse of some of these. It would be very high. However, the probability for a major quake of 7.6 Richter is higher (it may or may not be a mistake, however, to assume that homes built above known bedrock caves are at greater seis be4to6%inthenext10yearsbutithasamuchhigherprobabilitythanan8.6Richterquake). Planning mic risk. The cave system under the county is extremely complicated and even small caves often have for a 7.6 Richter quake is far superior to doing nothing and even when the 8.6 Richter quake does some very large rooms which have been created by roof collapses. Unless bedrock borings have been occur, damages will be considerably less than they would have been without any earthquake made, it would be incorrect to assume that any home upon the sinkhole plain of Warren County is planning. However, there are certain strategic buildings, such as hospitals, fire departments, police not above a cave. stations, etc., where it may be necessary to plan for a higher magnitude earthquake.
It is probable that there are hundreds of thousands of regoli th (soil) arches above voids in the bed Homes and buildings in Warren County should have earthquake and sinkhole collapse insur rock under Warren County. A large earthquake would probably induce the collapse of some of these ance. Most homeowners probably do not realize that there is a potential for earthquake damage in existing arches. However, the great majority of these are believed to be in or near the bottoms of our Warren County. Many homeqwners probably also believe that their homeowners insurance policy numerous bowl-shaped sinkholes and therefore, within the sinkhole flood plain for a one-hundred covers their home in the event of earthquake or sinkhole collapse damage. It does not unless they year probability, three-hour storm event. Therefore, our existing storm water management plan have paid extra for earthquake protection. Most homeowners do not have and cannot get sinkhole which prohibits the building of structures within the sinkhole flood plain provides an excellent land collapse insurance from their present insurance company. Only one or two companies presently use plan for preventing the building of structures in areas which are the most likely to have a sinkhole provide both earthquake and sinkhole collapse insurance under an "earth movement" rider to their collapse either during a flood or during an earthquake. Therefore, an earthquake land use plan homeowners policy. The state of Florida requires all insurance companies doing business in Florida already exists for Warren County. to provide sinkhole collapse protection. Kentucky should do the same. If necessary, Warren County should require that all insurance companies provide this protection. Other areas that are particularly at risk of collapse or subsidence are areas where bedrock caves have already collapsed. These are areas of broken rock with sediment, water and air separating the The cost of adding earthquake (and sinkhole collapse) insurance to one's homeowners policy boulders. These areas are believed to be at high risk of sinkhole collapse or subsidence due to varies with the insurance company and the value of the home but it is usually not very expensive. (If increased packing caused by erosion by cave streams during floods or vibration during large it is, then the consumer should consider changing his insurance company). earthquakes. Some of these areas are obvious as deep, steep-walled sinkholes but microgravity investigations combined with exploratory drilling have revealed extensive areas both in the city and The building code for Warren County should be upgraded to conform with the new and revised county which do not have a surface expression. These areas need to be found and identified. earthquake regulations in the Uniform Building Code (1988), published by the International Structures should not be built on these potentially unstable sites. Conference ofBuilding Officials. Warren County is in Seismic Zone 1 with Zone 4 being the highest and Zone Obeing the lowest. Because of the cutter-and-pinnacle bedrock surface in the karst areas of Warren County, it is possible that differential compaction could be accellerated during large earthquakes and this could Foundation investigations for multi-storied buildings and other strategic buildings should damage foundations. Most differential compaction is likely to occur in sinkhole bottoms which have require not only soil borings but bedrock borings as well. New buildings should not be built above collapsed in the past and then were filled with trash, old cars, appliances, tree stumps, rocks, etc. cave rooms with unstable cantilevered domes or above areas of broken rock where caves have Again, these areas usually occur within the sinkhole flood plain and the existing storm water collapsed. Where possible, these buildings should have their foundations built upon solid bedrock management plan should prevent structures from being built upon most of these areas. Unfortu in order to prevent differential compaction problems associated with cutter-and-pinnacle bedrock nately, even though it is against a county ordinance to fill sinkholes, and against the state law to surfaces. dispose of waste without a permit, many sinkholes have been filled, and structures have been built upon these filled sinkholes. The present storm water management plan prevents the building of structures within the one hundred year probability, three-hour storm, sinkhole flood plain. Since these areas are also the most Warren County is faced with a serious dilemma in terns of how to plan for a large earthquake vulnerable areas for sinkhole collapse and differential compaction, Warren County already has an which will occur in the New Madrid seismic zone. Some time in the future, a great quake, as large earthquake land use plan. However, areas of broken rocks resulting from cave collapses should be as the ones during the winter of 1811-1812, is going to occur. If it happens in the near future it will identified and structures prohibited from these potentially unstable areas. result in major damage in Warren County. Should the county therefore launch a crasl1 program to prepare for a great quake? Yes, if there is reason to believe it is going to happen in the near future but that does not appear to be the case.
Some day Warren County is going to have a 1000 year probability flood and there is a 10% probability that it will happen in the next 100 years and a 1% chance that it will happen in the next Introduction 1
Richter ruptured the central segment of the fault, a length of about 45 miles. The largest of the earthquakes, with an estimated magnitude of INTRODUCTION about 8.8 Richter, ocrnrred on February 7, 1812 near the town of New Madrid, Missouri (Nuttli, Seismic history indicates the potential for an 1987). Johnson and Nava (1985)estimate that the earthquake of very damaging proportions, in the largest quake was 8.3 Richter. This quake rup Central United States. The areas at greatest risk tured the entire northern branch of the fault, a are those closest to the New Madrid Rift Com length of 60 miles. Between December 16, 1811 plex which has branches or arms that underlie and March 15, 1812 there were an additional 5 portions of the states of Kentucky, Illinois, Indi earthquakesof-7.7Richter, JO with a magnitude ana, Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennessee (Figure of -6.7 Richter, 35 of -5.9 Richter, 65 of -5.3 1). While earthquakes have and do occur in Richter, and 89 of -5.0 Richter. The smallest of association with other tectonic structures, the these earthquakes had a magnitude equal to that New Madrid Complex is by far the greatest of the northeastern Ohio earthquake of January threat. While Warren County is not considered 31, 1986, and just slightly smaller than that of the to be in the greatest risk area in relation to re north central Kentucky earthquake of July 27, gional seismic activity, substantial damage could 1980. These two quakes were close to 5.0 Richter. occur in the county from a large earthquake Eighteen of the 1811-1812 earthquakes were felt along the New Madrid fault. Also, the unique as far away as Washington D.C. This series of geologic nature of Warren County's karst terrain earthquakes is the most awesome in the history poses potential problems that can be magnified of the United States. Since 1812 there have only by earthquake induced ground motions. These been two large earthquakes of a magnitude problems need to be addressed as potential risks greater than 6.0 Richter in the central United to building structures and the general popula States. Both of these quakes occurred on the New tion in the event of a large scale earthquake. This Madrid fault. The earthquake of January 4, 1843 report examines the seismic risk from the New had its epicenter in Arkansas at the extreme Madrid Complex and delineates areas of the southern end of the fault, about 25 miles north county where the risk could be magnified be west of Memphis. It caused structural damage in cause of existing faults, karst terrain, and alluvial Memphis, southwest Tennessee, northeast Ar soils. kansas and the extreme northwest corner of Mississippi. This earthquake had a magnitude of approximately 6.4 Richter. On October 31, 1895 CENTRAL UNITED STATES an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.7 Richter EARTHQUAKE HISTORY occurred near Charleston, Missouri near the northern end of the New Madrid fault. Struc tural damage occurred in the surrounding area The earthquake history of the Central United of Missouri and in a narrow band of northern States is dominated by a series of earthquakes Kentucky and southern Illinois bordering the that ruptured the New Madrid fault in the winter Ohio River, eastward to near Evansville, Indiana. of 1811-1812. On December 16, 1811 there were In St. Louis, chimneys were toppled and walls three very large earthquakes on the southern and foundations of masonry buildings were branch of the fault in eastern Arkansas, extend cracked (Nuttli, 1987). ing from a point 25 miles northeast of Memphis Seventeen moderately large earthquakes of to Reelfoot Lake in northwestern Tennessee. The magnitudes between 5.0 to 5.8 Richter have oc first had an estimated magnitude of-8.6 Richter curred in the Central United States in historic and occurred at 2:30 a.m., the second-8.0 Richter times in addition to the 189 of that size or greater at 8:15 a.m., and the third -8.0 Richter at 12:00 in the 1811-1812 New Madrid series. Some of noon. Together these three earthquakes rup these were in the Wabash Valley, a region where tured the entire southern segment of the fault, a focal depths are often about 13 miles deep, length of about 90 miles. On January 23, 1812 an suggesting the potential of a very large earth earthquake with an estimated magnitude of -8.4 quake there. Two were in the Illinois Basin of The New Madrid Rift Complex 3 2 Figure 1
southern Illinois and one occurred in northern simple log cabin structures accounted for the THE NEW MADRID RIFT COMPLEX Illinois. Two earthquakes occurred in north relativelysmalllossoflifeand property. Areas of western Ohio, near the town of Anna, and are southeast Missouri were so ravaged by the earth noteworthy for occurring at a shallow depth of quakes that the United States Congress passed about 3 miles, which possibly limits the maxi the first Disaster Relief Act in 1815, giving new mum earthquake magnitude in this region to land to the settlers of the area (Nuttli, 1987). The around 5.0 Richter. This is believed to be true only other central United States earthquake also of the 1980 quake in northcentral Kentucky known to have caused notable ground failure ILL. and the 1986 quake in northeastern Ohio (Nuttli, was the Charleston, Missouri event of October S T • 1987). One earthquake occurred in the St. Fran 31, 1895. A new lake was formed and sandblows cois uplift region northwest of the New Madrid were reported in an area of about 6 miles radius fault and two occurred in the Quachita-Wichita of the epicenter. Building damage was extensive Mountains zone. These areas are believed to at Charleston, Missouri, and hundreds of chim have the potential for large quakes. Two of the neys were shaken down in nearby Cairo, Illinois. historical earthquakes were associated with the The November earthquake of 1968 which had an Ky. Nemaha Uplift, and one quake was associated epicenter near Golden Gate, Illinois, and a mag with the Colorado Lineament zone. Figure 2 is a nitude of 5.8 Richter did not cause ground failure MO. map showing the location and intensity of some but did cause some structural damage to founda of the largest historical earthquakes. Of the eight tions and stone facades in southern Illinois and CA PE source zones shown in Figure 2, shallow focal parts of Western Kentucky (Nuttli, 1987). depths with magnitudes not greater than about 5.5 Richter are likely to occur from the Cincinnati Arch and the Colorado Lineament. Great earth THE NEW MADRID RIFT MURA AV quakes have occurred along the New Madrid • fault and very large ones may occur along the COMPLEX Wabash Valley fault, both of these regions of NEW MADRID There has been considerable speculation by FAULT ZONE earthquake activity occur due to crustal rifting. The remaining source zones appear to have the scientists as to when the New Madrid Rift Com ARK. MASHVILLE• potential for producing large earthquakes of plex will unleash another 1811-1812 magnitude between 6.5 to 7.0 Richter at the maximum. earthquake. The average citizen in Kentucky TENN. (Nuttli, 1987). knows very little about the true nature and risks The 1811-1812 mainshocks produced mas associated with living in this area. A 7.0+ Richter sive ground deformation over a wide area. Sand quake from the New Madrid Fault could have craters and sandblows occurred in the Missis disasterous effects on Western Kentucky. sippi River flood plain from south of St. Louis to Summarized below by the Nuclear Regula the mouth of the Arkansas River, in the Ohio tory Commission in Research Information Letter River Valley from Cairo, Illinois to southwestern No. 146 (1986), are the significant points to be Indiana, and in the St. Francis River Valley of noted when dealing with the cause and extent of Arkansas. Liquefaction and landslides affected the New Madrid seismicity. an area of about 6,000 square miles in east Mis 1. The New Madrid area is located within the souri, western Tennessee and northeastern Ar interior of the North American tectonic plate. kansas. Vertical uplift and subsidence of 10 to 20 (Areas of high seismic activity within crustal feet were reported in the epicentral areas, as well plates are rare). as deep and long rifts in the soil that were so wide 2. With respect to both size and number of 100 0 50 that they could not be jumped across on horse earthquakes, the New Madrid area is currently back. At St. Louis, at least 175 miles away from the most seismically active region of the United Mllea the mainshock epicenters, 2 to 3 feet thick stone States east of the Rocky Mountains. foundations of houses were split by the ground 3. The New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812 shaking and chimneys fell. Similar damage oc are associated with tectonic structures which are curred at Louisville, at about the same distance part of the New Madrid Rift Complex. The New Source: Nuttli, (1987). from the epicenters. Low densitypopulation and Madrid Rift Complex is a major tectonic feature within the North American Continent. 4 Figure 2 Geologic Faults in Wa«en County 5
CENTRAL U.S. EARTHQUAKE 4. Integration ofgeological/ geophysical and rary earthquakes in the region coincide with this seismological data has resulted in a conceptual distu1'bed zone. The disturbed zone also under LOCATION MAP model which relates historic and contemporary lies thearea containing liquefaction features (sand earthquake activity to geologic structures in the blows) associated with the New Madrid 1811- area. 1812 earthquakes. 12 ap 84 I 5. The conceptual model consists of a rift 13. The origin of the disturbed zone in the 90 •• H I I I I complex called the New Madrid Rift Complex, southem portion of the Reelfoot Rift is not known. which has four arms, the Reelfoot Rift, the St. It appears only in seismic reflection profiles and Louis Arm, the Indiana Arm, and Rough Creek is absent from aeromagnetic and gravity maps. Arm or Graben. (Figure 1). Crone et al, (1985) postulate that it represents an 6. The rift complex formed in late Precam uplifted, faulted zone associated with felsic igne brian to Cambrian time (1,500 to 500 million ous bodies. Howe and Thompsen (1984) pro years ago), in a tensional stress regime. There is pose that it is an uplifted, faulted zone of former sufficient geological/geophysical evidence to growth faults that were reactivated in a com show that the Reelfoot, Indiana, and Rough Creek pressional stress regime. portions of the rift complex are down dropped 14. Immediately to the north of the disturbed fault blocks bounded by growth faults. zone, contemporary seismicity strikes approxi 7. In late Paleozoic time (approximately 290 mately 330 degrees, in contrast to the disturbed million years ago), the rift complex underwent zone, which strikes 50 degrees; Zoback et al, compression. This resulted in: (a) uplift and (1980), using seismic reflection data, related seis subsequent erosion of sediments previously micity in the area to small faults and igneous deposited in the rift complex, (b) folding, (c) plutons of various ages. renewed movement on pre-existing faults, and 15. Based on geophysical data, the New (d) igneous activity presumably along pre-exist Madrid research indicates that the Anna, Ohio ing fractures. seismic zone is not an extension of the New 8. In late Mesozoic to early Eocene time, Madrid Rift Complex. The Anna seismicity is (approximately 130 to 40 million years ago), strongly localized on and around two geophysi there was renewed tectonic activity in the New cal anomalies. Whether they are the cause of the Madrid Rift Complex as evidenced by renewed seismicityorjustcontrolitspatternisnot known. igneous activity and faulting of sediments up 16. The New Madrid Rift Complex can be through the Eocene Epoch. bounded by geological/geophysical data used 9. Contemporary stress measurements show in conjunction with historic earthquake activity. that the New Madrid area is now in a compres This is significant, for it means that a tectonic sional stress regime where the principal com structure can be delineated and that earthquake pressive stress is oriented approximately east activity in the area can be linked to that tectonic northeast-west-sou thwest. structure. 10. Of the four arms of the New Madrid Rift Complex, the Reelfoot is by far the most active 0 300 km seismically (Figure 1). GEOLOGIC FAULTS IN 11. Based on a United States Geological Sur NEW MADRID FAULT E CINCINNATI ARCH vey trenching across the Reelfoot Scarp, the re WARREN COUNTY ST. FRANCOIS UPLFT. F COLORADO LNMT. currence interval for earthquakes in the Reelfoot WABASH VAL. FAULT G NEMAHA UPLIFT Rift large enough to produce ground motion The Rough Creek fault system crosses the ILLINOIS BASIN H OUACHITA·WICHJTA great enough to liquefy sand in the alluvium of southern end of the TI!inois basin in Kentucky the New Madrid Complex area to the extent it and forms the northern boundary of the east did in 1811-1812 is about 600 years. west-trending Moorman syncline (Figure 3). The Locatio_n of moderately large central United States earthquakes, of Il\ 5.0 through 5.8, that 12. In the southern part of the Reelfoot Rift Rough Creek fault zone is made up of numerous occurred smce 1812. The larger magnitude New Madrid earthquakes of 1811, 1812,.1843 and 1895 there is an axial zone extending southwest from high-angle normal faults and less common re are not included in the figure. Caruthersville, Missouri to Marked Tree, Arkan verse faults bounding a series of grabens and sas which shows a disturbed zone in seismic horsts, with a total displacement, down to the Source: Nuttli, (1987). reflection profiles. More than 90% of contempo - south, generally of about 300 feet, but in some 6 Figure3 Potential Damage from Long-Period Seismic Waves at Large Distances 7 from a Large Earthquake Along the New Madrid Fault
places by as much as ten times that. The Pen with the graben as growth faults formed as sub FAULT SYSTEMS nyrile fault system marking the southern bound sidence continued. The faults found in northern ary of the Moorman syncline, is similar in form to Warren County are associated with the southern OF KENTUCKY the Rough Creek but has fewer and smaller faults; boundary of the Rough Creek graben which is fault scarps along this system exposed by strip the Pennyrile fault system. Much of the later mining of the coal fields indicate dip-slip move sedimentary sequences, (Permian to Cretace ment (Palmer, 1969). Whaley and others (1980), aous), have been lost due to uplifting and ero in a description of the structures of the southern sion. The remaining stratigraphic record in most Illinois basin, report little orno lateral offset Warren County is from the Carboniferous which but significant vertical movement on the Rough has given rise to the karst terrain. Figure 4 uses Creek fault system through at least Early Per the structural geology map of Figure 3 as a base mian time. Geophysical studies by Soderberg map on which the inferred boundaries of the and Keller (1981), indicate that the Moorman Rough Creek graben arm of the New Madrid Rift syncline is underlain by a large graben, which Complex are overlain. Although it is believed they name as the Rough Creek graben, that was that the faults in Warren County are not pres active as early as latest Precambrian or earliest ently active, they represent areas of geologic Cambrian time and that has been reactivated in weakness which could result in movement dur the late Paleozoic and possibly Mesozoic. Busch ing a large earthquake in the Rough Creek Arm bach and Atherton (1979) suggest that most of the New Madrid Rift Complex. movement on faults at the southern end of the
1 Illinois basin took place at the end of the Paleo -39° zoic. 0 SO M l LES Northwest Warren County is located just POTENTIAL DAMAGE FROM 0 ao KILOM&TERS outside the Arm of the New Madrid Rift Com LONG-PERIOD SEISMIC plex called the Rough Creek graben (Figure 4). WAVES AT LARGE DISTANCES This structure is bounded to the northwestby the -38° Rough Creek fault system and the south and east FROM A LARGE by the Pennyrile fault system. Figure 3 is a map EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE of Western Kentucky's geologic structures relat ing to the New Madrid Rift Complex. Faults NEW MADRID FAULT found in the stratigraphy of northern Warren County are associated with the Pennyrile fault Warren County, although 150 miles east of -37° system of the Rough Creek graben (Figure 5). the epicentral area along the New Madrid seis The Rough Creek graben is considered to be mic zone, would feel the effects of long-period a down dropped fault block which is bounded by seismic waves which can result in damages at WAAREN COUNTY MO growth faults (NRC/RIL 146, 1986). The faults large distances from large earthquakes, espe I I · I I I I I found in the Pennyrile fault system are most cially for earthquakes occurring in the central ago 88° 87° 86° as0 83° 82° probably associated with the southeastern side United States. These long-period effects are of the Rough Creek graben. The Rough Creek another source of the variation displayed by graben can be determined by its aeromagnetic earthquakeisoseismalsorintensitypatterns. Two and gravity signature (Figure 4). Pre-Late Cam topics of particular concern are: 1) effects on tall brian rifting caused a down dropped block to buildings, and 2) effects on ground and water. form which manifested itself as a topographic The moderate size 5.8 Richter 1968 earth depression. This depression then continued to quake in southern 111inois is reported to have subside as it filled with sediments. The sedimen caused slight damage and frightened people in tary deposits in the central area of the Rough Chicago skyscrapers, 269 miles away from the Creek graben are much thicker than sedimentary epicenter; to have been felt on the twelfth floor of deposits outside the boundaries of the structure. a 1~story building at the Massachusetts Institute This area between the Rough Creek fault system ofTechnology in Cambridge, Massachusetts, 937 and the Pennyrile system contains the Moorman miles away; and to have been felt in tall buildings Source: U.S.G.S., (1984). syncline. The faults found just outside the bound in southern Ontario, Canada (Necioglu and ary of the Rough Creek graben may be associated Nuttli, 1974). Such effects are a consequence of a Figure 4 Figure 5 9
THE ROUGH CREEK GRABEN GEOLOGIC FAULTS OF OF THE WARREN COUNTY NEW MADRID RIFT COMPLEX
'-J90 SO ~ • L.lS
10 1( 11..0MITEll'S
-J8°
I l I I I 89° 88~ 86° 85° BJO
FAULT
/ Surface ,/ Concealed by younger rock / y Bar on downthrown side
0 10 MIL ES
Source: Nuclear Regulatory Research Information Letter Number 146, (1986). Source: Schwalb and others, (1971) Oil and Gas Map of Kentucky, Sheet 2, West-Central Part. 1o Potential Damage in Waffen County from 6.7, 7.6 and 8.6 Richter Earthquakes along the New Madrid Fault · Figure 6 11 the similarity of the predominant periods exhib New Madrid quake, based on the Modified ited by the earthquake at those distances to the Mercalli Intensity Scale of 1931 (Appendix 1). NEW MADRID FAULT INTENSITY SCALE natural periods (fundamental modes of vibra Part of the assessment of potential damage from tion) of the buildings. In the epicentral region a large earthquake associated with the New BASE(? UP.ON A 6.7 RICHTER damage is caused by the short-period, high-ac Madrid seismic zone in Warren County is the celeration vibrations predominant there; farther nature and distribution of alluvial soils and the MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE away, the longer-period waves, having )ow nature and extent of the karst features. Alluvial ground acceleration for relatively large ground soils are associated with river flood plains and displacements, begin to predominate. The the importance of these soils in increasing earth anomalously low attenuation of these waves in quake damage potential is important, but for the central United States makes them potentially Warren County, the nature of the karst geologic destructive over large distances. This low at setting is the prominent risk magnifier. With tenuation together with the dispersion, or vari AJgermissensand Hoppers Isoseismal maps and ation in velocity of different wavelengths of sur maps delineating Warren County's karst topog face waves, results in a prolonged duration of raphy, risk from a large earthquake may be esti shaking at distant points (Nuttli, 1979). mated. This potential provides a strong basis of The Jong-period waves that extend to larger support for an earthquake land use plan and the distances from a great earthquake may also pro dimensions of that plan based on potential risk duce ground and water effects. Ground effects magnitude. The Algermissen and Hopper maps caused by long-period waves include landslides, from U.S.G.S. Open-File Report 85-457 (1985) settling, and slumping. This may cause damage provide guidance for estimating risk magnifica to foundations of buildings and bridges, break tion due to karst subsurface structures and the buried pipes and crack road surfaces. Landslides levels of potential damage intensity which exist also can be triggered in susceptible placesat large for Warren County. With this guidance, a large epicentral distances from a great earthquake. scalemapofplanning areas was produced,show Seiches (waves produced by earthquakes on an ing areas that need greater levels of site specific enclosed body of water) and other oscillations in evaluation (Figure 9). surface water may occur out to hundreds of In Figure 8, the estimated boundary between miles from the epicenter. zones VIII and IX for an 8.6 Richter earthquake on the Modified Mercalli IntensityScale, is drawn POTENTIAL DAMAGE IN through the middle of Warren County. At VIII on the Modified Mercalli IntensityScale(Appen WARREN COUNTY FROM 6.7, dix 1) one could expect considerable damage to NEW MADRID FAULT INTENSITY SCALE 7.6, AND 8.6 RICHTER ordinary substantial buildings with collapse of BASED UPON A 8.7 RICHTER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE chimneys, columns, monuments, factory stacks, and towers. At IX there would be great damage NEW MADRID FAULT to substantial (masonry) buildings with some y Felt Indoor• bi, pr•ctlc•lli, all, outdoor• by many or moat. Small object• overturned, wood frame buildings shifted off their founda MODERATE bulldlng ■ tremble. tions. Even at the VIII intensity which is proba There is sufficient information as of 1989 to YI determine that Western Kentucky has a high risk bly more realistic in terms of earthquake risk, the Felt by •II, Indoor• •nd outdoora. Cracked STRONG Pla■ ter and overturned furniture. of receiving earthquake damage. This risk di seismic event would probably induce the col minishes with distance east of the Mississippi lapse of some existing unstable regolith arches VII Frighten• all, general •••rm. Cracked chimney ■, River and southeast of the Ohio River. The and possibly some existing unstable bedrock VERY STRONG conalderable damaga In poorly bullt bulldlnga. Federal Emergency Management Agency in cave rooms. YIU Gener•I fright approaching panic. Chane•• In low of 9roundw•tar, wood ■ tn,cturea d•m•e•dJ cooperation with the United States Geological DESTRUCTIVE lalllne ot chlmnei, ■ and tower ■• Survey prepared maps based on maps produced INCREASED HAZARDS DUE IX Panic e•n•r••· Cracked around, d•m•e• In moat by AJgermissen and Hopper (1984) delineating RUINOUS •II ■tructurea, pip•• broken. the potential for damage from a large earthquake TO KARST occurring along the New Madrid Fault (U.S.G.S. Modified From: Al9ermla ■ en and Hopper ( 1984) and FEMA map FM-1712, 1984). These maps The karst geologic setting of Warren County (Figures 6, 7, and 8) show county by county the could magnify the risk of potential damage from potential for earthquake damage from a large a large earthquake. Portions of Warren County, 12 Figure 7
Figure 8 13 NEW MADRID FAULT INTENSITY SCALE BASED UPON A 7.6 RICHTER NEW MADRID FAULT INTENSITY SCALE MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE BASED UPON AN 8.6 RICHTER · MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE
NEW MADRID FAULT INTENSITY SCALE BASED UPON A 7 .9 RICHTER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE NEW MADRID FAULT INTENSITY SCALE BASED UPON A 8.6 RICHTER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE
YI Felt bJ all, Indoor• end outdoor•. Cracked STRONG ple•ter and overturnell furniture. VII righten• all, general alarm. Cracked chlmneya VERY STRONG con•lderable damage In poorly built buildings. VII Frlglltea• ell, 1e11erel ■ l■rM. Crecked cll""11•r•, con•lderabl• demeg• In poorly bullt bulldlng•. VERY STRONG VIII General fright approaching panic. Chane•• In low of groundwater, wood structures damaged ener■ I fright approaching p■ 111c. Ch■n1e• In DESTRUCTIVE falllng of chimneys and tower•. VIII flow of groundweter , wood •tructure• damaged IX DESTRUCTIVE telling ot chimney• and tower•. Panic general. Cracked ground, damage RUINOUS In moet all structure•, pipes broken. IX Panic general. Cracked ground, damage In mo•t RUINOUS ■ 11 •tructurea, pip•• broken. X racked ground, open crack• and fold• In DISASTROUS cement pavements. Damage In all buildings. X cracked ground,open crack• •nll fold• In cement pavement. Damage In all bulldlng•. Broad lleeuree, •J•c ad water w ean an DISASTROUS XI mud. Pipeline• out of ••rvlce. Bridge• CATASTROPHIC :1:~~~i:.d, few masonry etructurH remain 14 Figure 9 Increased Hazards Due to Karst 15
Kentucky are located within the Pennyroyal Plain the downward movement of unconsolidated AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY RECOMMENDED (Sauer, 1927) region of south central Kentucky sediments through .openings in the bedrock. In FOR INCREASED SITE-SPECIFIC EVALUATION (Figure 10). The Pennyroyal Plain is character areas where the water table is usually above the ized by numerous sinkhole~ and a network of regolith-bedrock contact, collapses often occur DUE TO SEISMIC RISK shallow integrated subsurface drainage systems. when the water table drops below the regolith Associated with these subsurface drainage sys bedrock contact, either during droughts or dur tems are numerous caves, regolith voids, and a ing high-volume pumping (Figure 11). Physi highly irregular depth to bedrock. These karst cally, the collapses in this case are caused by loss features present many environmental and engi of buoyant support for the regolith arches which neering hazards, which may be complicated by span openings in the limestone. Collapses are the advent of a large earthquake. also caused by spalling of saturated regolith The understanding and defining of these and down the opening, enlarging the arch, and even other karst hydrogeologic features is essential in tually causing collapse at the land surface. When dealingwithdevelopmentplanningin karstareas. the water table fluctuates above and below the Proper delineation of surface and subsurface regolith-bedrockcontact,collapsemayresultfrom features permit development planning practices repeated wetting (swelling) and drying (shrink which can prevent or reduce ,the potential for ing) of material supporting regolith arches. structural instability as a result of an earthquake. Regolith collapses also may occur in situ The increased potential damage associated with ations where the water table is usually below the karst can be reduced to two possible mecha regolith-bedrock contact (Figure 12). Construc nisms: 1) collapse/subsidence due to failure of tion and land use changes that concentrate sur subsurface cavities and 2) differential compac face runoff in drains and impoundments may tion due to the irregular bedrock surface. locally increase the downward movement of water resulting in the piping of saturated rego Sinkhole Collapse lith into openings in the limestone. Most of the sinkhole collapses investigated in the Warren While seismic activity is not considered a County area by the Center for Cave and Karst major threat to cavity stability, the influence of a Studies at WKU (Sinkhole Collapse Inventory, large seismiceventmayinducethecollapseofan Vols. 1-4) are of this type. An estimated 70 existing unstable cavity. The threat of subsi percent are man-induced collapses of existing dence or collapse due to the presence of subsur regolith arches. There are probably hundreds of face cavities is a common problem in the karst thousands of existing regolith arches under areas of Warren County. Prediction of exact Warren County. Changes in surface drainage location for possible collapse sites is very diffi associated with urban development are be cult. The irregular development of karst cavities lieved to be the primary cause of most collapses. makes it hard to obtain a picture of subsurface However, loading of the surface by structures, conditions which may lead to collapse. Possible fill, or ponded water, or vibrating the surface by collapse cavities can range in size and depth from nearby blasting, heavy equipment, or perhaps small regolith arches within the unconsolidated earthquakes, may also occasionally cause the r----1 1ncrea ■ ed Slte•Speclflc EvatuaUon Neer L-.....J Minor Faultlng material above bedrock (soil) to large cavernous collapse of regolith arches (Crawford and Whal (:::;:::::::) 1ncr••••d Sile-Specific Ewaluatlon Neer Scale In Mllee · Faultfng And Ker1t Ar••• rooms in solid rock. There are two basic forms of lon, 1985). Figure 13 illustrates a regolith col O 1 2 4 8 8 l)!Wt-.1@jnfill 1ner••••d SUe-S pecUlf; Ewaluatlon On Ka rat collapse: 1) regolith collapse and 2) bedrock lapse which occurred under an apartment com '"'· Terratn And Alluvtal Soll• Along Stream• collapse. plex during a flood on May 7, 1988. Blasting or vibrating the surface has been Regollth Collapse shown to disturb soils over a considerable area. "The village of Liangwu, in southern China, was Rego Iith collapses occur due to the formation abandoned when nearby blasting triggered 40 and the eventual collapse of regolith arches sinkholes, and another 100 followed soon after in (domes). Urban development in karst areas will an area 5886 feet long (Yuan, 1983, 1987)," almost always produce an increase in the col (Waltham 1989, p. 27). In an inventory of sink lapse of regolith arches. Rego Iith arches form by and subsidence occurrences in Missouri, Wil- 16 Figure 10 Figure 11 17
LOCATION OF WARREN COUNTY WITH SINKHOLE COLLAPSES IN AREAS WHERE THE RESPECT TO REGIONAL WATER TABLE IS ABOVE THE REGOLITH PHVSIOGRAPHIC SETTING LIMESTONE CONTACT USUALLY CAUSED BY A DROP IN THE WATER TABLE
!!5£ WATER TABLE ABOVE REGOLITH-LIMESTONE CONTACT
w 0 z > 0 a: Q. 0 (J) =-~~======siJi";~R~ceoRAI N_;-GE-:::::_-~_::=-s_ _:c_~-~-i:~3_ w :c ...I ------_ __ ;:3..:_ - _ Q. , / i 'r-"" < ) .,0 a: . C, > SINKHOLE COLLAPSES CAUSED BY DROP IN WATER TABLE 0 ll&:: 0 ., 0 ::, "' > t- :c z Q. ...I w 0 "'>- z ll&:: 0 Z ► .tS,. < I&. wt- >-z .., a: z z 0 a: ::, w Q.
SINKHOLE COLLAPSES IN AREAS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WHERE THE WATER TABLE IS BELOW THE REGOLITH LIMESTONE CONTACT RESULTING FROM COLLAPSE OF USUALLY CAUSED BY AN INCREASE IN THE A REGOLITH ARCH DOWNWARD MOVEMENT OF SURFACE WATER
A WATER TABLE BELOW REGOLITH-LIMESTONE CONTACT ..,______. Storm water retention basin
STORM WATER RUNOFF TEMPORARILY PONDED ..,__.._:.___ .L.:.(.:.w~l~h .... e~~~~-~~d!rlng flood, IN SINKHOLES & RETENTION BASINS ----:-::_:-::_ =- -- • "' - -
•
FIGURE 3 , Sinkhole collapses In areas where the water table Is below the regolith-limestone contact are usually caused by an increase In the downward movement of surface water. Land use changes and construction activities that concentrate surface water In drains, sinkholes, and impoundments may locally Increase the downward movement of surface water and induce the collapse of on;;:;:; ;~~I;~~ occured under the Greenwood Villa Apartments in Bowling Green during a flood regollth arches.
Source: Crawford (1986). 20 Increased Hazards Due to Karst Table 1 21
Iiams and Vineyard (1971) concluded that ap bly promote stoping and cavern breakdown. proximately 4% of the man-induced sinkhole Davies (1951) and White (1988) examined collapses could be associated with blasting. Janie' cavern breakdown by applying a simple beam (1962) stated that some cave roofs had caved in model, in which a critical minimum beam thick and the bottom of many sinkholes were opened ness (bed thickness) is determined for a given up during the earthquakes ofJanuary, 1962 in the beam span. The key to the development of Minimum Thickness of Beam coastal region near Makarska (village ofKozic) in breakdown is the transfer of the weight of the SPAN Fixed Cantilever Yugoslavia (Milanovic 1981, p. 198). beam (rock) to the walls of the cave. The ability of the walls to support a uniformly loaded beam 3 ft 0.03 in 0.09 in Bedrock Collapse is dependent on the beam type. There are two types of beam; fixed and cantilever. A ceiling is 10 0.26 0.76 From review of damage to tunnels caused by classified a fixed beam if the rock is solid and earthquakes, Dowding and Rozen (1978) indi spans the passage as one unit. The ceiling is a 20 1.02 3.06 cate that unlined tunnels generally did not expe cantilever beam if the rock containsopen joints or rience block falls until the peak surface accelera fractures that separate the beam or ceiling into 30 2.30 6.88 tions exceeded 0.2g and velocities exceeded 20 two units (Davies 1951 and White 1988). The cm/sec. Barton (1979) and Barton and Hansteen critical beam thickness for a fixed beam is given 40 3.79 12.23 (1979) showed, from dynamic model tests, that by White as: 50 6.37 for steeply dipping joints, block falls occurred 19.11 progressively in the wall between adjacent tun where: nel openings. By comparison, with gently dip 65 11.23 33.98 ping joints there were no block falls, but only a t = p1 212s 98 25.48 76.46 general settlement. The seismic stability of tun nels, and thus caverns and mine openings, does s = flexural stress in the extreme fiber not appear to be a major problem. However, treatment of loose rock in seismic zones is war = beam thickness TABLE 1 ranted. (Franklin, 1981) Ceiling Span for Cantilever or Fixed Beam. A theoretical study of the structural stability p = density of the beam material of circular tunnel cavities as large as 20 feet in diameter is described in the Preliminary Safety 1 = beam length or roof span Analysis Report (PSAR) of the North Coast Nuclear Plant No. 1 site in Puerto Rico (USAEC, The critical beam thickness for a cantilever 1975). Two-dimensional finite element analyses beam is given by: for a cavity depth of 200 feet indicated a maxi mum shear stress increase of 20 percent for static t = 3p12/2S structural loading and a 27 percent increase in principal stress difference due to a pseudostatic Application of the formulas using a density of 3 loading for 0.35 g earthquake acceleration. Prin 165 lb/ft-1 (2.65 g/cm ) and an assumed flexural cipal stresses were compressive and the results stress of 2600 psi are presented in Table 1 and were considered conservative on the basis of Figure 14 which show the relationship between linear elastic conditions (Franklin, 1981). beam span (passage width) and minimum beam Solution cavity collapses are a natural part of thickness (bedding thickness). Thus, for a given the evolution of the karst landscape, the final bedding thickness an upper size limit for a stable event in the history of cave passages. Bedrock ceiling can be determined. collapse results from the enlargement of the cave Enlargement of the cavity by progressive passage by the mechanical failure of the ceiling. stoping or breakdown of the roof rock will con Failure of the ceiling of a bedrock void has been tinue to a point that either a stable arch is formed termed cavern breakdown (White and White or collapse of the cavity reaches the surface. 1969). Peck (1976) suggests that rock overlying Evaluation of cavity stability for complex solu solution cavities in limestone may become loos tion features such as those found in Warren ened during seismic activity and could conceiva- County are extremely complex. The depth and 22 Figure 14 New Madrid Earthquake Damage in Mammoth Cave During the Winter of 1811-1812 23
diameter at which a cave would be in danger of Differential settling of a structure could occur CEILING SPAN FOR CANTILEVER catastrophic collapse requires knowledge of joint due to the placement of structural supports on patterns, joint strengths, intact rock compressive uneven load bearing surfaces (Figure 16). If a OR FIXED BEAM and tensile strengths, in situ elastic modulus, portion of a structure is placed on a bedrock Poisson's ratio, and Ko ( the ratio of the horizontal surface and partially on unconsolidated sedi effective stress to the vertical effective stress) for ments, structural settling could occur. The lime the rock (Franklin and others, 1981). "Any calcu stone pinnacles act to support the structure while lation of roof stability over a cave is difficult, as regolith cutters do not. Areas of cave collapse or conventional engineering approaches are con a detached limestone boulder could also become servative,and attempts at evaluation have found unstable if compaction or a shift is induced by an natural spans that survive with about three times earthquake. 75 the span of artificial openings at the point of collapse (Cruden et al., 1981). As a rough guide, a limestone cave roof is generally stable where Celling stable the thickness of sound rock cover exceeds the NEW MADRID EARTHQUAKE ....~ cave width" (Waltham, 1989, p. 9). The key concept to evaluating cavity stability DAMAGE IN MAMMOTH CAVE "' is the tension dome that develops over the cavity "'zw 50 DURING THE WINTER OF 1811- ~ Fixed in the bedrock (Figure 15). "The top of a dome 0 Beam extends upward into the bedrock for distances of 1812 ! stable some 1.5 times the cavity diameter. Any change 0w in loading above the top of the dome is distrib George and O'Dell (1989) have recently inves m uted over the cavern walls, and the ability of the (C tigated the impact of the New Madrid earth 0 25 formation to support the load is independent of quakes in 1811-1812 upon Mammoth Cave. :I w the cavity's existence. If, however, the tension People were inside the cave mining saltpeter m< dome extended to the land surface or to the base during the earthquakes and George and O'Dell of an excavation, additional loading would in (1989) were able to find some written reports crease the shear along the walls, leading to col concerning the impact of the earthquakes. The Celling oosable lapse of the cavity and subsidence of the excava following is from their article in the Cave Re 0 tion" (White, 1988 p. 360). Considerable experi search Foundation Newsletter, 17, 3, 1989. ence and judgment is required in estimating 0 20 40 60 80 100 Our collection review of material pertaining to maximum possible enlargement before stress and CEft.lNG SPAN (ft) part-owner Charles Wilkins' activity at Mammoth structure loading would induce a collapse due to Cave provides insight into the day of the first earth seismic activity. quake, December 16, 1811. At 2AM, the saltpeter workmen, along with Joseph A. Gatewood (brother to Differential Compaction Fleming Gatewood, the other part owner), and per haps Archibald Miller (manager or agent ofthe saltpe When evaluating site stability, the depth to ter works) were working at the Second Hoppers in solid bedrock may be more important to identify Booth's Amphitheater. When the earthquake struck, than a cavity. Deep cavities are not a serious they panicked and ran for the entrance. The earth threat to many structures, while an irregular quake caused major damage to the works-several of bedrock surface or an unstable cave breakdown the hoppers were "thrown down" and the pump was area may present difficulties to the stability of a "sunk ... three feet". Two other major earthquakes Critical breaking strength for ceiling beams in cave passages. Calculations based on data for Ste. structure. Differential settling or subsidence may occurred, on January 23 and February 7, 1812. A Genevieve Limestone of southern Indiana, shear strength= 18.2 MPa and density= 2.65 g cm-3, be induced by the compaction of unconsolidated workers' strike occurred after each major 'quake. The based on means of four samples measured by the Indiana Geological Survey. Bowling Green, material during an earthquake. During a period earthquakes, the strikes, and a detached management Kentucky is primarily built upon the Ste. Genevieve Limestone. of earthquake vibration, unconsolidated sedi fostered a 50% decrease in saltpeter production. ment may achieve improved granular packing, Apparently, the Rotunda pump tower was not resulting in reduction of porosity, loss of volume, repaired. It is still four feet too low to drain leachate and vertical compaction. back to the entrance. Some repair was done to the Source: Modified from White, W.B. (1988), p. 232. Figure 16 25 24 Figure 15
STRESS REGION ABOVE A SOLUTION CAVITY, STRUCTURAL DAMAGE RESULTING FROM BENEATH A FOUNDATION EXCAVATION CONSTRUCTION ON CUTTER-AND-PINNACLE KARST SURFACE
□ □ Excavation House sags Excavation and backfill
_.:..----r-__,;____ ..,.._/ /=/:::::r===' \I l - -~-,-----,--'-1/ \--'----~-- - - 'I- Cracks in basement walls _!.----'--~--- I \ _ Bedd ing plane partings - - ' , I and floor I '\ I_ within tension dome I _ Zone of maximum /.:::::=:=;=:::=====:==\ ~~ I \ /1 \-i-----l-~--;- - , oo• I __ - - \ ', ., I - \ \ / _.__ ___,-L l\ __.,:.__..,...__!..----,------' , ___-- ,.,,,,. / ' .... --- .,,, / ' - J / \ ---=-----r--f - -
Solution cavity
Source: White, W.B. (1988) p. 358. Source: White, W.B., (1988), p. 360. 26 Alluvial Soils and Seismic Risks Areas of Warren County Vulnerable to Sinkhole Collapse 27
Booth's Amphitheater hopper complex-some of the U.S.G.S. Open File Report 84-770 (1984) is an ex happers have additional structural bracing. The rein 3. It is possible that a seismic event might in include bedrock borings, it is impossible to say cellent source. duce the collapse of existing unstable cave roofs troduction of V-vats at both processing sites may with any degree of certainty that any home or Liquefaction potential in Warren County is of in limestone bedrock. There are several cave building located on the sinkhole plain of Warren have been necessary to solve system failure. Produc minimal risk due to the limited extent of alluvial rooms under Bowling Green (which we know County is not located above a cave. Although tion never regained its 3000 lbs. per week schedule. soils and the very limited level of construction in The cave petered out by the start of 1814. about and probably many more which we do cave rooms obviously do collapse, the authors do the alluviated areas. The greatest potential of not) which have collapsed almost to the surface not know of a single documented bedrock cave exposure to alluvial soil ground failure in War and it is hard to explain what is supporting their collapse that hasoccurred anywhere in thiscounty ren County would be associated with bridge roofs. Someday, these cave roofs are going to in historic times. This does not mean that they ALLUVIAL SOILS AND ramps and pilings that are not set on top of collapse and the intense vibration during a large have not occurred, just that they are so rare that SEISMIC RISKS bedrock. Soil failure under seismic stress could earthquake could induce collapse of some of they have not been reported. Although the cause structural damage to any bridges so situ these cantilevered domes. However, these domes chances for a bedrockcavecollapse should not be ated. survived the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811 ignored, the numerous and frequent sinkhole Ground failures due to large magnitude earth This report considers alluviated areas within quake activity, are a potential risk on sites where and 1812 and they will probably survive many collapses in karst areas have all been regolith the county to pose a risk magnification equal to more, but someday they are going to fall. Cavern collapses mixed with weathered and unattached the soil is alluvial. Alluvial soils are soils that the areas of the county that are highly karstified, have been deposited and reworked over time by collapses in the past are responsible for some of rocks. b. Since regolith collapses can and do and any structures that are planned for construc the most impressive topographic features in occur about anywhere on the sinkhole plain, the streams. These types of soils commonly contain tion on these soils should have a higher level of abundant sand and silt size particles,and in areas Bowling Green and Warren County. Unfortu homes built above bedrock cave rooms are proba site specific analysis performed. Existing struc of the stream flood plain periodically occupied nately, the Lost River Cave System and other bly at no greater risk than those that are not. tures that are of a critical nature and located on by slower or still waters, clay size soil particles caves under Warren County do not have a sand 4. Areas where cave roofs have collapsed alluvial soils are recommended for further site stone caprock to protect them from collapsing as leaving behind large areas ofbroken rocks mixed may accumulate. Often these deposits are thick specific evaluation also. within the stream flood plain. The greater the does nearby Mammoth Cave. The Lost River with sediment of various sizes are particularly percentage ofclean sand in the soil the greater the Cave has collapsed in many locations resulting in vulnerable to sinkhole collapse or subsidence potential for a phenomenon to occur called lique large and steep sinkholes at the following loca during floods as the sediments are eroded, al faction. Liquefaction is defined as "the transfor tions: a) south of and parallel to Cave Mill Road, lowing the larger rocks to settle. This can occur mation of a granular material from a solid state AREAS OF WARREN COUNTY acavecollapse whichextendsforamile; b) west as storm water flows downward through these into a liquified state as a consequence of in MORE VULNERABLE TO of the Bowling Green Mall on Nashville Road; c) massive rock piles or it can occur during floods south of Emmett Road; d) north of Newman when the cave streams rise into the rocks and creased pore-water pressures." (Youd, 1973). This SINKHOLE COLLAPSE basically means that under the right soil, ground Drive and Cedar Ridge Road; and e) southwest erode sediments resulting in settlement which water, and seismic conditions, the soil will be OR SUBSIDENCE DURING A of Morgantown Road in front of the Kentucky can propogate itself upward toward the surface. have as a fluid mass. LARGE EARTHQUAKE Department of Transportation Building (Figures Examples of these extremely vulnerable areas The thickest and most widespread alluvial 17 and 18). On Figure 17, west of Bowling Green are evident in Figures 17 and 18. Some of these deposits in Western Kentucky occur in the flood Mall, there is an obvious collapse of the main large cave collapses are over 1000 feet wide and There are areas of the county which are more plains of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. In trunk passage of the Lost River Cave. The Lost up toa mile long. The reason thesecollapseareas vulnerable to sinkhole collapse resulting from an Warren County, these soils are associated with River has been forced to dissolve another route, are so wide is that when a cave roof collapses and earthquake. They include the following: the Barren River and its surface tributaries. The thus going around the collapse and reentering begins to form a cantilevered dome, most of the BarrenRiverflood plain isverynarrowdueto the the main passage downstream (north) of the Big collapse falls in the center of the passage. This river having entrenched or cut into the limestone 1. Tne bottoms of sinkholes and other areas Bertha entrance. causes the cave stream to flow around the mound where storm water runoff is ponded during and bedrock of the region. This limits the extent of the There are homes, buildings, and major roads of breakdown (broken rocks which have fallen alluviated flood plain generally to areas that are after rains, such as storm water retention basins, located directly above the Lost River and other into the passage) on one or both sides, thus, also within the 100 year flood plain. This limits ditches and ponds. Most of these would proba caves in Bowling Green and it is tempting to undercutting the walls. This results in more bly occur in or near the bottoms of sinkhole the building of structures in the alluviated areas, conclude that these structures are at greater risk collapse and then more undercutting as the cave depressions as was the case in Yugoslavia in re which reduces the risk of exposure of structures than other structures in Warren County. How stream followed by cave collapse moves hori to liquefaction induced ground failures. sponse to earthquakes in January 1962 (Mila ever, they are probably at no greater risk for two zontally. Many of these areas of broken rocks are novic 1981, p. 198). Collapses would occur only While the extent of alluvial soils is limited to reasons: a. The cave system under the sinkhole evident on the surface as large, rather deep, and the rather narrow flood plain of the Barren River where there are existing unstable regolith arches. plain of Warren County is incredibly compli relatively steep-walled sinkholes. For the most and its surface tributaries, the occurrence of Some differential compaction of loose sediments cated with cave streams having changed their part, these areas have not been built upon but these soils in thecountydoes warrant theirevalu from previous sinkhole collapses mixed with courses, primarily due to collapse, many times. there are homes and businesses, particularly in ation for site specific analysis for critical struc various kinds of debris used to· fill these col Even small cave streams can and frequently do the area south of Emmett Road and north of lapses could be expected. tures that may be built within the alluviated have large cantilevered cave rooms created by Newman Lane and Cedar Ridge Road (Figure areas of the county. As a reference for further 2. Areas with thin soils above crevices in the bedrock collapse. Therefore, without an exten 17), which are located upon collapsed caves. Of bedrock. understanding potential risk from liquefaction, sive investigation of the subsurface which would even greater concern, are areas of the county Figure 17 28
.....~.
BOWLING GREEN, KENTUCKY
IXPLORIO AND SURVEYED aY: CENTER FOR CAVE AND KARST STUDIES, WESTERN KENTUCKY UNIVERSITY ANO THE: GREEN RIVER GROTTO OF THE NATIONAL SPELEOLOGICAL SOCIETY
CITY OF BOWLIIIG GREEN, KENTUCKY Nt<:hOIH. C. Crawford, l"f'o-.Ct otrectot·- ,1. HO ,l. t%:!~l~!~!'!'~ifii~:!5CJ,j~~'K'"\"ai~ ~- ~ ~, Tlllo •op l'ICl-'thl t0,21 •II•• of 1111rvo701I ,u,-o 1toooo90 01 Of J 11•0•7, 1911, ·•plorotlo• 1 111 llt'fl1 llllll ll1110.
Lo•t River Cave Syatem Robinson Cave SuDlvan Cave Cold River Cave State Tr- Cave lnelllde• LOIi Rlwor, Slnalll'I04e, 7 1583 toot ot z,e12 toot of 1at ffft of ounoyN 1,121 root 1 1 ..,., .,., 819 l•rth1, Ll'+'ln9oton, •nd ...w•J•d PH.. gt, 1urwey.-ctp.aHa91 p.a11.age pau... Aloxondor c,,-, Entronc•• s•.~ t & 1,11 ol ,.,.,,,e11 Creaaon Cave Cue , ..,..,,, ,1111, e1u1, 0..•~••• Tl• ...... 1 1, • Ji. .. W11111 .., .tl ll• M1tr11t, Frl•l l fl4 Jt•11 l•UII, ...... 213 fHt Of ■1111 ounoyod P••••.. c, •• ,un,, •••• · · • • ctll l c,. ,., .. ,...... ~ 'llttrt,,, 11 o,. ,., II• •· ...... ,. ,,,.,, c11,1•• •••••••• ~--·· --H• - - - -
::c (/) C) o :I: m o 0 o~ GENERALIZED PROFILE OF LOST RIVER CAVE -r,~)> ::c -z < )> UNDER BOWLING GREEN, KENTUCKY 0O C> .. m -r r )>CN r- ::czm Loat River 560 Uvala l> m CC I- "l Small Hole Ill "'C l> m "'C Ill... (/) (/) ::c ::c :!: 520 Livingston Alexander z 2 rn~DJO I- •> Harvest••n :I: :I: 0 !! Ill Haven Cave ~ 480 l> m ~ r Entrance < :cc m mmzO 440 Loat River os:e> -n ol>e>•oc.. :co 400· cOmcn ::c ::c m -t ::c o z ·::c 36<' .J C:-r-d ::::z:-t.-, 7::>--C:r:&- 7"::>,/:::::r-+,, ~7:'--r--,1~7":--d,=:-,--L,,7::':-,-.1:::::c-i-,,~r:::n 0 2 3 4 5 6 m )>"" DISTANCE IN MILE S c I\) infancy as a science. Where good historic data HYPOTHESIZED ROUTE and a sound understanding of the geologic OF PRESENT-DAY j LOST RIVER Probabilities for Future Earthquakes forces responsible for earthquakes exist, general along the New Madrid Fault and time predictions of recurrence intervals are pos MAPPED CAVE 0 2 0 00 Fe et sible. With historic records extending back into LARGE COLLAPSE Potential Impacts on Warren County SINKHOLE the 1500s and a good understanding of the geo 0 200 M•tera ___, GRAVITY TRAVERSE Johnson and Nova (1985) have estimated the logic forces at work along plate boundaries, fairly ~ SHOWING ANOMALY good earthquake recurrance intervals and proba STATE TROOPER probabilities for future, large earthquakes in the ., .- HYPOTHESIZED ROUTE bilities can be estimated along the San Andreas CAVE New Madrid seismic zone. They estimate that .,. OF ANCIENT LOST RIVER there is a 40-63% probability of 6.3 Richter event Fault in California. However, this is not the case occurring by the year 2000 (within the next 10 along the New Madrid Fault. Areas of high ' years) and an 86-97% probability by the year seismic activity within crustal plates a re rare and FlllURI! Mapped portion, o f Lo at River Cave and hypothesi zed pruent day a nd anci e nt r oute, u determined by mi c rogr avity (Crawf o rd, 1 888). 2035. A 6.3 Richter quake would certainly be felt scientists are only beginning to understand this in Warren County but probably would not cause area. The best theory is that· the rift complex, any serious damage. Figure 6 of this report which is thought to have formed in late Precam shows that on the Modified Mercalli Intensity brian to Cambrian time (1,500 to 500 million Scale for a 6.7Richterearthquake, Warren County years ago), is currently experiencing compres sive reactivation of some structural features. Figure 20 32 Recommendations 33 PROFILE OF A MICROGRAVITY Johnson and Nova (1985) recognized that their water management plan which prohibits the probabilities are contingent on a number of fac building of structures within the sinkhole flood TRAVERSE WITH WELLS tors which remain assumptions because of the plain provides an excellent land use plan for pre lack of a geological or paleoseismological chro venting the building of structures in areas which INTERSECTING VOIDS nology of past New Madrid activity. are the most likely to have a sinkhole collapse either during a flood or during an earthquake. Therefore, an earthquake land use plan already 0 0 Karst Features as Damage exists for Warren County. ..~ Magnifiers During Large Other areas that are particularly at risk of 0 0 Earthquakes collapse or subsidence are areas where bedrock •~ I caves have already collapsed. These are areas of 0 0 .. 0 broken rock with sediment, water and air sepa Ill ..0 Alluvial soils along rivers can magnify earth rating the boulders. These areas are believed to •ii: quake damage but fortunately for Warren z be at high risk of sinkhole collapse or subsidence •:::, County, there are very few structures built upon :i: due to increased packing caused by erosion by alluvial soils. Since the faults in the northwest ..:::, cave streams during floods or vibration during •0 part of the county are believed to be inactive, ~ 0 large earthquakes. Some of these areas are obvi .!. 0 karst features are believed fo be the primary Ill • ous as deep, steep-walled sinkholes but micro ..• damage magnifiers. Vibrating of the surface by gravity investigations combined with explora ..> blasting has induced the sinkhole collapse of re C tory drilling have revealed extensive areas both .. golith (soil) arches in other areas, causing the .. in the city and county which do not have a 0 abandoningofa village in China (Waltham, 1989) .,0 surface expression. These areas need to be found ~ and accounting for 4% of the sinkhole collapses and identified. Structures should not be built on in a study by Williams and Vineyard (1971) in these potentially unstable sites. Missouri. Earthquakes which occurred in 1962 in Because of the cutter-and-pinnacle bedrock Yugoslavia caused the collapse of some bedrock surface in the karst areas of Warren County, it is 0 cave roofs and caused the bottoms of many sink possible that differential compaction could be : .. holes to open (Milanovic, 1981). .. accellerated during large earthquakes and this .. There are cantilevered cave roofs in many !., could damage foundations. Most differential u locations under Warren County which appear to compaction is likely to occur in sinkhole bottoms ..~ be unstable. It is possible that a large earthquake 0 • which have collapsed in the past and then were 0 0 might induce the collapse of some of these. It filled with trash,old cars,appliances, tree stumps, = would be a mistake, however, to assume that rocks, etc. Again, these areas usually occur within homes built above known bedrock caves are at the sinkhole flood plain and the existing storm greater seismic risk. The cave system under the water management plan should prevent struc county is extremely complicated and even small 0 0 tures from being built upon most of these areas. N caves which have been created by roof collapses Unfortunately, even though i tis against a county often have some very large rooms. Unless bed ordinance to fill sinkholes, and against the state rock borings have been made, it would be incor law to dispose of waste without a permit, many rect to assume that any home upon the sinkhole sinkholes have been filled, and structures have 0 plain of Warren County is not above a cave. 0 been built upon these filled sinkholes. ~ It is probable that there are hundreds of thousands of regolith (soil) arches above voids in the bedrock under Warren County. A large earthquake would probably induce the collapse RECOMMENDATIONS 0 0 of some of these existing arches. However, the 0 great majority of these are believed to be in or Warren County is faced with a serious di near the bottoms of our numerous bowl-shaped lemma in terns of how to plan for a large earth sinkholes and therefore, within the sinkhole flood quake which will occur in the New Madrid seis mic zone. Some time in the future, a great quake, 0 plain for a one-hundred year probability, three ..0 hour storm event. Therefore, our existing storm as large as the ones during the winter of 1811- 0 0 0 0 .,0 •0 .,0 .,0 s,voOIIOIN NI A,vwONV aAIJ.VUII 34 Recommendations References 35 1812, is going to occur. If it happens in the near quake protection. Most homeowners do not future it will result in major damage in Warren have and cannot get sinkhole collapse insurance REFERENCES County. Should the county therefore launch a from their present insurance company. Only one crash program to prepare for a great quake? Yes, or two companies presently provide both earth if there is reason to believe it is going to happen quake and sinkhole collapse insurance under an Algermission, S.T., Perkins, D.M. Thenhaus p C H nd in the near future but that does not appear to be "earth movement" rider to their homeowners istic Estimates of Maximum Accleration ~nd V1 ~;~, SRL., a Bender, ~-L., (1982). Probabil- United States Geological Suroey Open-File Report e82~c1,033mDeock InCthle Contiguous United States, the case. policy. The state of Florida requires all insurance , nver o orado, 99. Some day Warren County is going to have a companies doing business in Florida to provide 1000 year probability flood and there is a 10% sinkhole collapse protection. Kentucky should Algermission, S.F., and Hopper, M.G. (1984). U.S.G.S. and FEMA Map FM-1712. probability that it will happen in the next 100 do the same. If necessary, Warren County should years and a 1 % chance that it will happen in the require that all insurance companies provide this Barton, N. 0979). Model Studies of Ve Lar u d . next 10 years. Should the county prepare for it? protection. Pr~eedings of the Fourth Congress of the hzterna,:na1°s:rtyofi::dR~~mhags ~t SVha2lloMw Depth, A reasonable planning decision was made in The cost of adding earthquake (and sinkhole SWitzerland, 583-590. ec mes, • , ontreux, 1976 that the county will plan for a 100 year collapse) insurance to one's homeowners policy probability, 3-hour rain event for storm water varies with the insurance company and the value Barton, N. and Hansteen, H (1979) Ver Lar S O . management purposes. Planning for a 100 year of the home but it is usually not very expensive. Magnitudes from Jointed Mod~ls an~ Fl: p~n pe;mgs ~t Shallow Depth: Deformation storm, which has a 1 % probability of occurring (If it is, then the consumer shou Id consider chang T~n~ling Conference, Atlanta, GA, V.2, So.cie;a yses, _ _ro ceedm~s, 1979 Rapi~ Excavation and each year, will not only eliminate flood losses ing his insurance company). Mmmg, Metallurgical and Petroleum Engineer[ I~~-~;~~r Engineers, American Institute of during a 100 year and lesser storms, but it will The building code for Warren County should greatly reduce flood losses when a 1000 year be upgraded to conform with the new and re Catanese, A.J. and Snyder' J· C·, (1988) · Ur b an Plannmg, . 2nd edition McGraw Hill B kc flood does occur. vised earthquake regulations in the Uniform N ew Yor k , NY. , - oo ompany, A similar planning decision is needed in pre Building Code (1988), published by the Interna paring for an earthquake. The probability for an tional Conference of Building Officials. Warren Central United States Earthquak c , ( Director, Marion, IL. . e onsortium, 1985). Infonnation Booklet. E.E. Jones Executive 8.6 Richter quake in the near future appears to be County is in Seismic Zone 1 with Zone 4 being the small and the cost of preparing for a great quake highest and Zone O being the lowest. would be very high. However, the probability Foundation investigations for multi-storied Central United States Earthquak c • Director, Marion, IL. e onsorhum, (1985). Yearly Meeting-19.85. E.E. Jones Executive for a major quake of 7.6 Richter is higher (it may buildings and other strategic buildings should ormaynotbe4 to6%in thenext10yearsbutithas require not only soil borings but bedrock borings a much higher probability than an 8.6 Richter as well. New buildings should not be built above Crawford N.C. and Whallon A J (1985) H quake). Planning for a 7.6 Richter quake is far cave rooms with unstable cantilevered domes or Suroey' Water Fact Sheet, 2. , . . . ydrologic Hazards in Karst Terrain. U. S. Geological superior to doing nothing and even when the 8.6 above areas of broken rock where caves have Richter quake does occur, damages will be con collapsed. Where possible, these buildings should Crawford, N.C. (1986). Karst Hydrologic Prob{ As · . siderably less than they would have been with have their foundations built upon solid bedrock Contamination, Hazardous Fumes, Sinkhole n::. s:ti~dk~tjh ~rban D~elopment: Groundwater out any earthquake planning. However, there in order to prevent differential compaction prob Kentucky. Guidebook for National Wate ~n1t m. ~ e ollapse m the Bowling Green Area, are certain strategic buildings, such as hospitals, lems associated with cutter-and-pinnacle bed Problems in Karst Terranes and Their Sol ; e W AssoCiahon Conference on Environmental Kentucky, 80. u ons, estem Kentucky University, Bowling Green, fire departments, police stations, etc., where it rock surfaces. may be necessary to plan for a higher magnitude The present storm water management plan earthquake. prevents the buildings of structures within the Cruden, D.M. Leung, Y.W. and Thom S (198 ) . Homes and buildings in Warren County one hundred year probability, three-hour storm, Park, Alberta, Canada. Bullitis Intes:'n:ti~nal 1· A_ Cti?llaEpse ~olt~e in Wood Buffalo National ssoc1a on ngmeermg Geologist, v. 24, 87-90. should have earthquake and sinkhole collapse sinkhole flood plain. Since these areas are also insurance. Most homeowners probably do not the most vulnerable areas for sinkhole collapse Davies, W.E.(1951). "MechanicsofCa e B kd ,, . 43. v rn rea own, Natwnal Speleological Society Bulletin 13, 36- realize that there is a potential for earthquake and differential compaction, Warren County damage in Warren County. Many homeowners already has an earthquake land use plan. How Dowding, C.H. and Rozen A (1978) Dama R probably also believe that their homeowners ever, areas of broken rocks resulting from cave 0 1 insurance policy covers their home in the event collapses should be identified and structures pro of the Geotechnical Engi;eering Division Age t? t !un~; s.£i:om E?rthquake Shaking. Journal 13533. ' mencan oetety 0, Civil Engineers, Vol. 104, GT2, Paper of earthquake or sinkhole collapse damage. It hibited from these potentially unstable areas. does not unless they have paid extra for earth- Franklin, A.G. and others 1981. Foundation c id · · • . and Other Areas Susc~tible to Ground C Ila ans .;ratwns;" Siting ofNuclear Facilities in Karst Terrains Experiment Station to u.s Nuclear Roegpsl e.t epocrto l!·S: ArmyCorpsofEngineers Waterways ' · u a ory omm1ss1on. 36 References References 37 George, A.I. and O'Dell, G.A. (1989). 1811 'Quake Damaged Mammoth Cave Saltpeter Works; Cave Uniform Building Code (1988). International Conference of Building Officials, Whittier California, Research Foundation Newsletter, Vol. 17, No. 3,6. 140-179. Hays, W.W., (no date), Examination of the Body of Technical Data Available For ~~sessing_ the United States Geological Survey, (1985). Estimation of Earthquake Effects Associated with Large Nature and Extent of Earthquake Hazards in the Mississippi Valley Area and Devts1~g ~lions Earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, M.G. Hopper Editor, Open-File Report 85-457. for MitigatingTheir Effects, United States Genlogical Survey Information Paper, Reston, Virgm1a, 24. United States Geological Survey, (1984). The New Madrid Seismic Zone, P.L. Gori and W.W. Hays Higgins,J.D.andRockaway,J.D.,(1986). AGraphicsSystemforSeismicResponseMapping,Bulletin editors, Proceedings of the Symposium on the New Madrid Seismic Zone, Open-File Report 84-770. of the Association of Engineering Genlogists, Vol. 23, No. 1, 77-91. United States Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. Johnston, A.C. andNava,S.J. (1985). Recurrence Rates and Probability Estimates for the New Madrid United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, (1986). Research Information Letter Number 146, Seismic Zone, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 90, No. B8, 6737-6753. Robert B. Minogue, Director Regulatory Research, Results of Seismotectonic Research Program, Washington, D.C., 30. Keller, E. A., (1976). Environmental Geology, Charles E. Merrill Publishing Company, Columbus, Ohio. Waltham, A.C. (1989). Ground Subsidence, Chapman and Hall. New York. Kentucky Task Force on Earthquake Hazards and Safety, (1983). Report and ~ecommendations to White, E.L. and White, W.B-,(1969). Processes of Cavern Breakdown, National Speleological Society Governor John Y. Brown, Corrine Whitehead Chairperson, 86. Bulletin 31, 83-96. Milamovic, P.T. (1981). Karst Hydrogeology. Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO. 434. White, W.B. (1988). Geomorphology and Hydrology of Karst Terrains. New York. Oxford, 464. Necioglu, A. and Nuttli, O.W. (1974). Some Ground Motion and Intensity Relations for the Central Williams, J.H. and J.D. Vineyard (1971). Geologic Indicators of Catastrophic Collapse in Karst United States: Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 3, 111-119. Terrain in Missouri, Na tional Academy of Science Transportation Research Record , 612, 31-37. Nuttli, O.W. (1979). Seismicity of the Central United States: Geological Society of America Reviews in Winter, S. (1988). Karst Hydrogeologic Problems Associated with Urban Development in the By Engineering Geology IV, 67-93. Pass Cave Area, Bowling Green, Kentucky, Center for Cave and Karst Studies Report, Western Kentucky University, 48. Nuttli, O. W. (1987). The Current and Projected State-Of-Knowledge on Earthquake Hazards, Infor mation Paper, St. Louis University, St. Louis Missouri, 18. Wood, H.O. and Newmann, F. (1931). Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale of 1931, Seismological Society of America Bulletin 21, 277-283. Nuttli, O. W. and Herrmann, R.t B., (1978), Credible Earthquakes for the Central United States, State of-the-Art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States, Report number_ 12, ~isce~la Youd, T.L. (1973). Liquifaction, Flow, and Associated Ground Failure, U.S. Geological SuroeyCircular neous papers 5-73-1, prepared for the office of ChiefofEngineers, U.S. Army, St. Loms Umvers1ty , 688, 12. St. Louis, Missouri. · Palmer, A.N. (1969). Hydrologic Study of the Indiana Karst, Ph.D. Dissertation, Indiana University, Bloomingto, Indiana. Peck, R.B. (1976). Rock Foundations for Structures, National Speleological Society Bulletin 13, 36-43. Sauer, C.O. (1927). Geography of the Pennyroyal. Kentucky Geological Survey, series 6, vol. 25, 303. Schwalb, H.R. (1971). The Northern Mississippi Embayment, in Proceedings of Symposium on Future Petroleum Potential of the Illinois Basin, Cincinnati Arch, and Norther Part of Mississippi Embayment, Illinois State Geologic Survey, Illinois Petroleum 95, 44-49. Seeger, C.R. (1989). Earthquake Risk in the Bowling Green Area, Letter to the EdHor of the Bowling Green Daily News, Oct. 28, and personal communications. Tweddell, T.A. (1988). Earthquake Land Use Planning in Western Kentucky. Research Paper, Planning, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, Kentucky. Appendix A1 APPENDIX MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE (From Wood and Neumann, 1931) I I APPENDIX MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE (From Wood and Newman, 1931) I Not felt--or, except rarely under especially favorable circumstances. Under cenain conditions, at and outside the boundary of the area in which a great shock is felt Sometimes birds, animals, reponed uneasy or disturbed; Sometimes dizziness or nausea experienced; Sometimes trees, structures, liquids, bodies of water, may sway--doors may swing, very slowly. II Felt indoors by few, especially on upper floors, or by sensitive, or nervous persons. Also, as in grade I, but often more noticeably: Sometimes hanging objects may swing, especially when delicately suspended; Sometimes trees, structures, liquids, bodies of water, may sway--doors may swing, very slowly Sometimes birds, animals, reponed uneasy or disturbed; Sometimes dizziness or nausea experienced. III Felt indoors by several, motion usually rapid vibration. Sometimes not recognized to be an eanhquake at first. Duration estimated in some cases. Vibration like that due to passing of light, or lightly loaded trucks, or heavy trucks some distance away. Hanging objects may swing lightly. Movements may be appreciable on upper levels of tall structures. Rocked standing motors cars slightly. N Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few. Awakened few, especially light sleepers Frightened no one, unless apprehensive from previous experience. Vibration like that due to passing of heavy, or heavily loaded trucks. Sensation of heavy body striking building, or falling of heavy objects inside. Rattling of dishes, windows, doors; glassware and crockery clink and clash. Creaking of walls, frame, especially in the upper range of this grade. Hanging objects swung, in numerous instances. Disturbed liquids in open vessel_s slightly• spires, etc. Cracked chimneys to considerable extent, walls to some extent. Rocked standing motor cars nonceably • Fall of plaster in considerable to large amount, also some stucco. Broke numerous windows, furniture to some extent.. Shook down loosened brickwork and tiles. V Broke weak chimneys at the roof-line (sometimes damaging roofs). Fall of cornices from towers and high buildings. Felt indoors by practically all, outdoors by many or most; outdoors d'irecnon · estimated . Dislodged bricks and stones. Awakened many, or most. Overturned heavy furniture, with damage from breaking. Frightened few--slight excitement, a few ran outdoors. Damage considerable to concrete irrigation ditches. Buildings trembled throughout. Broke dishes, glassware, to some extent. Cracked windows--in some cases, but ~ot ge_nerally. · ces with occasional fall. vm Overturned vases, small or unstable ob3ects, m m_any mStan Hanging objects, doors, swing generally or considerably. Fright general--alarm approaches panic. Knocked pictures against walls, or swung them out of place. Disturbed persons driving motor cars. Opened, or closed, doors, shutters, abruptly. Trees shaken strongly--branches, trunks, broken off, especially palm trees. Pendulum clocks stopped, started, or ran fast, o: slow. Ejected sand and mud is small amounts. Moved small objects, furnishings, the latter to shght extent.. Changes: temporary, permanent; in flow of springs and wells; dry wells renewed S illed liquids in small amounts from well-filled open containers. flow; in temperature of spring and well waters. T~es, bushes, shaken slightly. Damage slight in ,structures (brick) built especially to withstand earthquakes. Considerable in ordinary substantial buildings, partial collapse: racked, tumbled down, VI wood houses in some cases; threw out panel walls in frame structures, broke off decayed piling. Felt by all indoors and outdoors. doors Fall of walls. Fn'ghtened many, excitement general, some alarm, many ran out . Cracked, broke, solid stone walls seriously. A wakened all. Wet ground to some extent, also ground on steep slopes. Persons made to move unsteadily. Twisting, fall, of chimneys, columns, monuments, also factory stacks, towers. Trees, bushes, shaken slightly to moderately. Moved conspicuously, overturned, very heavy furniture. Liquid set in strong motion. Small bells rang--church, c~ape~s~ hool, etc. Damage slight in poorly built butldings IX ~~c~~t;f!!~;;s~~~~:1t~~~~ecially fine crac~ in chimneys in_ some instances. Panic general. Broke dishes, glassware, in co~siderable quantity, also some wmdows. Cracked ground conspicuously. Fall of knick-knacks, books, pictures. Damage considerable in (masonry) structures built especially to withstand Overturned furniture in many instances. . earthquakes: Moved furnishings of moderately heavy kmd. Threw out of plumb some wood-frame houses built especially to withstand earthquakes; Great in substantial (masonry) buildings, some collapse in large part; or wholly VII shifted frame buildings off foundations, racked frames; serious to reservoirs; Underground pipes sometimes broken. Frightened all--general alarm, all ran outdoors. Some, or many, found_ i~ difficult to stand. Noticed by persons driving motor cars. X Trees and bushes shaken moderat~ly to strongly. Waves on ponds, lakes, a~d runmng water. Cracked ground, especially when loose and wet, up to widths of several inches; fissures Water turbid from mud stirred up. up to a yard in width ran parallel to canal and stream banks. Jncaving to some extent of sand or gravel stream banks. Landslides considerable from river banks and steep coasts. Rang large church bells, etc. . Shifted sand and mud horizontally on beaches and flat land. Changed level of water in wells. 1 Threw water on banks of canals, lakes, rivers, etc. r.;;1:i~;;~~•!~:1~~=:~~~~~e:~i!fn";~~f;l:~~~"bi£~hJ:£r~f Damage serious to dams, dikes, embankments. buildings, adobe houses, old walls (especially where laid up wtt out mo , Severe to well-built wooden structures and bridges, some destroyed. Developed dangerous cracks in excellent brick walls. Destroyed most masonry and frame structures, also their foundations. Bent railroad rails slightly. Tore apart, or crushed endwise, pipe lines buried in earth. Open cracks and broad wavy folds in cement pavements and asphalt road surfaces. XI Disturbances in ground many and widespread, varying with ground material. Broad fissures, earth slumps, and land slips in soft, wet ground. Ejected water in large amount charged with sand and mud. Caused sea-waves ("tidal" waves) of significant magnitude. Damage severe to wood-frame structures, especially near shock centers. Great to dams, dikes, embankments, often for long distances. Few, if any (masonry), structures remained standing. Destroyed large well-built bridges by the wrecking of supporting piers, or pillars. Affected yielding wooden bridges less. Bent railroad rails greatly, and thrust them endwise. Put pipe lines buried in earth completely out of service. XII Damage total--practically all works of construction damaged greatly or destroyed. Disturbances in ground great and varied, numerous shearing cracks. Landslides, falls of rock of significant character, slumping of river banks, etc., numerous and extensive. Wrenched loose, tore off, large rock masses. Fault slips in firm rock, with notable horizontal and vertical offset displacements. Water channels, surface and underground, disturbed and modified greatly. Damned lakes, produced waterfalls, deflected rivers, etc. Waves seen on ground surfaces (actually seen, probably, in some cases). Distorted lines of sight and level.