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Turkey Energy Outlook Book Turkey Energy Outlook 2020 Prof. Carmine Difiglio Bora Şekip Güray Ersin Merdan Sabancı University IICEC Istanbul International Centre for Energy and Climate Minerva Palas, Bankalar Caddesi, No:2 Karaköy 34420 Istanbul / Turkey Phone: +90 212 292 49 39 TEO Book Design-works: CEEN Enerji Bilgi Servisleri Dan. ve Org. ve Tic. Ltd. Şti. Kavacık Mah. FSM Cad. Tonoğlu Plaza No: 3/4 Beykoz 34810 Istanbul / Turkey Phone: +90 216 510 12 40 TEO Book Printing: G.M. Matbaacılık ve Tic. A.Ş. 100 yıl Mah. MAS-SİT 1.Cad. No:88 Bağcılar/Istanbul / Turkey Phone: +90 212 629 00 24 Fax: +90 212 629 20 13 Matbaa Sertifika No: 45463 November 2020 ISBN: 978-605-70031-9-5 About IICEC The Sabancı University Istanbul International Center for Energy & Climate (IICEC) is an independent Center at Sabancı University that produces energy policy research and uses its convening power at the energy crossroad of the world. Utilizing this strategic position, IICEC provides national, regional and global energy analyses as a research and an international networking center. Since it was established in 2010, IICEC has leveraged Istanbul’s strategic position to host high-level Forums featuring sector leaders from government, international organizations, industry and academia fostering substantive discussion among key stakeholders with the aim of charting a sustainable energy future. IICEC also hosts seminars and webinars on important energy policy, market and technology areas. As a research center in one of the most reputable universities in its region, IICEC has built a comprehensive technological and economic overview of the Turkish energy economy, published research reports on a wide variety of energy and climate topics and supports energy education at Sabancı University. IICEC also provides concise analyses of key energy market developments for policy makers and energy professionals with busy agendas. IICEC emphasizes a holistic and quality analytic approach integrating energy policy objectives with technological assessments, economic analyses, market drivers, regulatory factors and reflecting business acumen. https://iicec.sabanciuniv.edu iicec-sabanci-university-istanbul-international-center-for-energy-and-climate sabanciu_iicec 3 Foreword In 2010, inspired by the discussions with Dr. Fatih Birol, I established the Sabancı University Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC). Its purpose was to inform policymakers, industry, academics and opinion leaders on key energy challenges and opportunities and provide them with objective analysis. The first task for IICEC was to establish a distinguished platform for the exchange of ideas with key energy and climate stakeholders taking advantage of Istanbul’s convening power at the crossroads of the energy-producing and energy-using world. After several International Forums with world-wide leaders in government and industry, IICEC undertook a second task to undertake original analysis as a University research center. During the time that IICEC was producing energy market and policy assessments, research reports, and publications, I learned of a major undertaking by the IICEC team: a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of the Turkish energy economy beginning with an extensive data collection and modeling project. I then learned of Dr. Birol’s challenge to the IICEC staff to develop a Turkey Energy Outlook with the expectation that this title would be merited with in-depth, comprehensive and objective policy modeling and analyses. I am proud to say that the Turkey Energy Outlook has exceeded expectations. You will find, in clear language, a complete and independent assessment of Turkey’s energy economy. It shows how interdependent all of Turkey’s economic sectors are to each other with an analytic structure that reflects them. An in-depth assessment is provided within each energy and fuel sector chapter. Each chapter reflects a detailed assessment of Turkey’s in-place energy infrastructure and the markets in which they operate. Looking forward, they show how Turkey can best benefit from emerging energy technologies and advance progress towards more competitive energy markets. Two Scenarios are provided to show the integrated outcomes of a variety of energy policies with the aim of strengthening Turkey’s energy economy, technological advancement, energy security and environmental sustainability. Numerous and specific policy recommendations are made to advance these objectives including policies that will grow the role of the private sector and explain the benefits of greater private sector involvement and wider stakeholder benefits. At the same time, a strong role is proposed for government leadership since a progressive partnership among the government, industry and academia, the success triangle, is essential for Turkey’s social, economic and environmental progress. The Turkey Energy Outlook is particularly welcome now as we come to the close of a tumultuous year. The tragic Covid-19 pandemic has, at the time of this publication, already caused over a million deaths worldwide and pushed the world economies into recession. On the other side of the ledger, Turkey’s recent exploration and production investments have, just two months ago, paid dividends far in excess and far more quickly than most experts’ expectations. The Turkey Energy Outlook has been able to reflect both of these factors, along with numerous others in its projections and policy assessments. I hope you will appreciate the Turkey Energy Outlook as much as I did. I expect that it will become and remain a Turkish energy handbook and also serve as an eye-opening experience for our international audience including the investor and technology community. Ms. Güler Sabancı Founding Chair of the Board of Trustees Sabancı University 5 Authors The Turkey Energy Outlook was led by IICEC Director Prof. Carmine Difiglio and IICEC Research Director Bora Şekip Güray including the scenario development, modeling and supporting analyses. The TEO was also authored by Carmine Difiglio, Bora Şekip Güray and IICEC Energy Analyst Ersin Merdan. The TEO modeling work also benefitted from the modeling framework established by IICEC Senior Researcher Dr. Danial Esmaeili. 6 Acknowledgements This Turkey Energy Outlook (TEO) would not have been possible without an extensive collaboration with government officials, experts in industry and faculty members from academia. It was built in stages first by assembling an extensive database of the Turkish energy economy and a modeling framework to understand how technology developments, Turkish economic growth, different energy policies, and energy market developments would change the trajectory of future fuel use, energy demand, energy trade balances and a wide variety of other variables. The TEO accounts for a series of technical, economic, and regulatory detail of the existing (and complex) Turkish energy economy. Assembling and understanding this detail was one of the benefits IICEC achieved with its outreach to Turkish energy experts. The TEO policy recommendations emerged after we drilled down into the details of and analyzed each fuel and energy sector in a holistic way. The TEO benefitted from the insights and support of many respected energy leaders and professionals. Sabancı University Founding Chairman of the Board of Trustees Güler Sabancı encouraged the IICEC team to develop the TEO, as a unique product to serve the interests of the growing and developing Turkish energy sector. IEA Executive Director and IICEC Honorary Chairman Dr. Fatih Birol, the architect of the IEA World Energy Outlook, inspired IICEC to produce this report along the lines of IEA’s flagship publication to cover similar questions for Turkey. Dr. Birol provided encouragement throughout the development of the TEO. The IICEC team is grateful to the World Energy Council Turkey National Committee (WEC Turkey) President Alparslan Bayraktar for his vision, support, and encouragement for the TEO. His insights enabled a detailed policy framework to construct the TEO. Barış Sanlı from WEC Turkey provided valuable input and feedbacks that further illuminated the TEO analysis. IICEC also thanks Dr. Oğuz Can from the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources for the valuable discussions and exchanges during the TEO preparations. Sabancı University President Prof. Yusuf Leblebici encouraged IICEC for a detailed study ensuring an independent research atmosphere that supported a productive and quality TEO. IICEC also would like to thank WEC Turkey Vice-President and IICEC Board of Directors Member Kıvanç Zaimler for his valuable support throughout the study and helping to organize the TEO Stakeholders Roundtable Meeting. The TEO Stakeholders Roundtable Meeting (TEO SRT), held on 4 October 2019, gathering energy and industry leaders, delivered numerous key insights and visions to better understand the industry’s perspective on how to achieve a more secure, efficient, competitive and sustainable energy future with wider benefits to the Turkish economy. IICEC would like to thank all the attendees to the TEO SRT for their significant insights and vision for the energy future of Turkey. 7 l Kıvanç Zaimler (co-chair) Sabancı Holding l Yağız Eyüboğlu (co-chair) Koç Holding l Mehmet Acarla Borusan EnBW l Arkın Akbay Turcas Petrol l Oytun Alıcı ELDER l Yaşar Arslan GAZBİR l Cem Aşık EÜD l Cem Başaktar Vitol Turkey l Budak Dilli Independent Energy Consultant l Arnaud Dupoizat IFC Turkey l Ahmet Erdem Shell Turkey l Nazım Isgandarov SOCAR Turkey l Bilal Tuğrul
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