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Market Update and Fund Review

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Market Update and Fund Review ASSET PRIVATE MY WEALTH MANAGEMENT WEALTH MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT MARKET UPDATE AND FUND REVIEW 2018 DECEMBER Click here for download MARKET BRIEF BY NDB WEALTH Inflation as measured by the CCPI slowed to 2.8% in December 2018 from 3.3% in November 2018, on a INFLATION RATE CONTINUES TO DECLINE year on year basis. Lower inflation was mainly due to lower non-food inflation in December. Favorable weather conditions that prevailed during the second half of the year had a positive impact on overall supply side dynamics. We expect inflation to be in low single digits in 2019. The Sri Lankan rupee continued to depreciate drastically against all hard currencies during the last SHARP DEPRECIATION quarter of 2018. Surge in capital outflows and widening trade deficit exerted pressure on the exchange OF THE SRI LANKAN RUPEE rate of the country. The Sri Lankan Rupee depreciated by 7.39% against the US Dollar during the fourth quarter alone, leading to an overall depreciation of 16.36% for 2018. Furthermore, the last three months of 2018, saw the Sri Lankan Rupee depreciate by 4.53%, 5.69%, 9.95% and 10.76% against the Sterling Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Indian Rupee respectively. The Central Bank was a net seller of over USD 800 million during October and November and for the first 11 months of 2018 the Central Bank has sold USD 1.0 billion in the market. Gross official reserves were estimated at USD 6.9 billion as at end of December 2018. The benchmark 364-day Treasury bill rate ended the year 2018 at 11.20%. The months of October and BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE REMAINS HIGH November saw interest rates rising sharply, by approximately 1.70%, mainly due to external pressures exerted on the economy. Foreign investors were heavy sellers of LKR denominated securities with LKR 85 billion net selling witnessed during the fourth quarter of 2018. The total net foreign selling for the year 2018 stood at LKR 159 billion reducing the foreign holding of LKR denominated debt to 3.11% by end of 2018 compared to 6.59% at the beginning of the year. The two main indices of Colombo Stock Exchange recorded significant losses in 2018 with the All Share STOCK MARKET RETURNS Price Index losing 4.98% and the S&P SL 20 index losing 14.61% over the year. The improved investor TO WEAK SENTIMENT sentiment witnessed during early November reversed during the latter half of the month and the dull sentiment continued in to December, as political uncertainty and foreign selling hampered the overall market sentiment. Equity market may continue to be range bound on the backdrop of uncertainly in the political front and overall weakness in corporate performance due to weak economic outlook. Indika De Silva Fund Manager EQUITY OUTLOOK Past month Past 12 months Year to Date Performance Performance Performance (1st Dec - 31st Dec 2018) (Dec 2017 - Dec 2018) (1st Jan - 31st Dec 2018) All Share Price Index 0.55% -4.98% -4.98% S&P SL 20 -1.36% -14.61% -14.61% MSCI Frontier Markets Index -2.93% -16.41% -16.41% MSCI World Index -7.60% -8.71% -8.71% MSCI Emerging Markets -2.66% -14.58% -14.58% MSCI Asia Ex Japan -2.71% -14.37% -14.37% Source: www.cse.lk and www.msci.com The two main indices of Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) depicted mixed results during December 2018, as the All Share Price Index gained 0.55%, while the S&P SL 20 index lost 1.36% during the month. Global stocks underperformed the US stock market in 2018 as escalations in the US-China trade war dragged down markets around the world. MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI Frontier Markets Index ended the year recording losses in excess of 14.50% and 16.40%, respectively in 2018. The MSCI World Index declined by over 8.70% in 2018, mainly due to the heavy losses recorded in December. For the year 2018, the S&P 500 fell 6.2%, the Dow dropped 5.6% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 3.9%, marking the worst annual performance for the three main indices in the U.S, since 2008. Volatility was driven by signs of a global economic slowdown, concerns about monetary policy, political dysfunction, inflation fears and concerns about increased regulation of the technology sector. China’s trade war with the U.S. is expected to reach an agreeable conclusion in 2019 which may result in a rally for markets such as Turkey, China and South Africa, that also posted their worst annual performances in a decade. Colombo Stock Exchange Performance 8,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 7,000 12,000,000 6,000 10,000,000 5,000 8,000,000 ASPI / S&P 4,000 6,000,000 (LKR’000) Turnover 3,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 2,000 Jun - 11 Jun - 12 Jun - 13 Jun - 14 Jun - 15 Jun - 16 Jun - 17 Jun - 18 Dec - 10 Dec - 11 Dec - 12 Dec - 13 Dec - 14 Dec - 15 Dec - 16 Dec - 17 Dec - 18 Turnover S&P ASPI Source: www.cse.lk Dec 2018 Dec 2017 Market PER 9.65 × 10.60 × CSE Market PBV 1.18 × 1.31 × Market DY 3.09% 3.19% Market PER 12.52 × 14.98 × MSCI Frontier Market Market PBV 1.73 × 1.91 × Market DY 4.06% 2.98% Source: www.cse.lk Foreigners continued to be net seller in CSE for the 6th straight month, leading to a net foreign outflow of over LKR 22.7 billion in 2018. Colombo Stock Exchange Jan - Dec 2018 Jan - Dec 2017 Foreign Inflows LKR 77.48 Billion LKR 112.70 Billion Foreign Outflows LKR 100.26 Billion LKR 94.67 Billion Net Foreign Inflows/(Outflows) (LKR 22.78 Billion) LKR 18.03 Billion Source: www.cse.lk ALWAYS INVEST FOR THE LONG TERM Warren Buffet FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK INTEREST RATES IN SRI LANKA The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) maintained its key policy rates stable in December holding the Standing Lending Facility Rate (the rate CBSL lends to commercial banks) and the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (the rate which commercial banks place their excess cash with CBSL) at 9.00% and 8.00% respectively. Dec 17 Nov 18 Dec 18 364 Day T-bill 8.90% 11.20% 11.20% 5-Year Bond 9.97% 11.81% 11.56% 1-Year Finance Company 13.55% 12.46% 12.46% Fixed Deposit Ceiling Rate Gross Rates provided. Net returns earned on Government Securities would vary depending on the individual’s tax bracket while Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Fixed Deposits will be subject to a final WHT of 5% for individuals. AVERAGE LENDING & DEPOSIT RATES YIELD CURVE - LKR TREASURIES Rate% Rate 25 12% 11% 20 10% 15 9% 8% 10 7% 5 6% 0 5% 3 6 12 24 36 48 60 Jul - 10 Jul - 15 Jan - 08 Jan - 13 Jan - 18 Jun - 08 Jun - 13 Oct - 11 Oct - 16 Apr - 09 Apr - 14 Feb - 10 Feb - 15 Feb Sep - 09 Sep - 14 Time to Maturity Mar - 12 Mar - 17 Dec - 10 Dec - 15 Aug - 12 Aug - 17 Nov - 08 Nov - 13 Nov May - 11 May - 16 AWDR (%) AWFDR (%) AWLR (%) AWPR (%) Dec-17 Dec -18 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka AWDR: Average Weighted Deposit Rate | AWFDR: Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate | AWLR: Average Weighted Lending Rate | AWPR: Average Weighted Prime Lending rate Treasury Bill rates remained flat across the board with the benchmark 364-day T-Bill rate closing the year at 11.20% and the 91-day and 182-day T-Bill closing at 9.99% and 10.01% respectively. Broad money (M2b) growth edged up to 13.9% year-on-year in November, from the previous month’s 13.5% whilst credit extended to the private sector accelerated by 16.2% year-on-year in November from 16.1% in October. During the month, private sector credit disbursements increased by LKR 79.2 Bn. (1.5% m-o-m), despite the introduction of import restrictions by the government to curtail vehicle imports and other non-essential imports. NDB Bank increased their fixed deposit rate during the month of December. duringthemonthofDecember. deposit rate NDB Bankincreased theirfixed holding of foreigners to 5% of total holdings from the previous limit of 10% to reduce volatility in interest rates. rates. ininterest reducevolatility to limitof10% theprevious holdingsfrom 5%oftotal to holding offoreigners restricttherupee bondandbill decidedto thegovernment billion.InJanuary 2019, LKR159.81 sellers amounting to net were foreigners securities.During2018, continuouslysellingoutoflocalgovernment investors withforeign largest declineduringtheyear the Thiswas 3.11%. LKR33billioninDecemberto by onacontinuousdecline,falling securitieswas holdingofgovernment Foreign COMB SAMP NDB HNB NSB 1 Year FD Rates –SriLankanBanks FDRates 1 Year LKR Bn. 100 200 300 400 500 0 Jan - 15 456 453 456 Domestic (Bills&Bonds) Apr - 15 459 Dec 2018 450 11.75% 11.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.50% LKR 5,122Billion 433 LKR 999Billion T Bills(Total) Jul - 15 401 375 333 Holding ofBillsandBonds-3.11% Foreign Total Oct - 15 311 304 304 289 Jan - 16 Billion LKR 5,286Billion/USD32.27 271 Outstanding Securities LKRGovt. Nov 2018 Nov 11.00% 11.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.50% 220 HOLDING OFLKRG-SEC FOREIGN 224 Apr - 16 241 252 288 Jul - 16 302 314 301 Oct - 16 278 289 240 Jan - 17 196 Rates onCredit Cards Rates 196 204 Apr - 17 219 236 Foreign (Bills&bonds) Foreign Sampath 255 AMEX HSBC NDB SCB 268 LKR 4,287Billion Jul - 17 LKR 164Billion 290 T Bonds(Total) Source: Central BankofSriLanka Central Source: 302 310 Oct - 17 BankofSriLanka Central Source: 324 330 321 Jan - 18 320 324 Source: Respective Commercial Banks Respective Commercial Source: 307 Apr - 18 295 288 277 Jul - 18 249 221 Dec 18 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% 28.00% 198 Oct - 18 165 NDBIB CRISIL Fixed Income Indices 3 Month 1 Year 3 Year Total return as at 31/12/2018 Return Return Return NDBIB-CRISIL 91 Day T-Bill Index 2.16% 8.17% 8.56% NDBIB-CRISIL 364 Day T-Bill Index 1.27% 7.22% 8.26% NDBIB-CRISIL 3 Year T-Bond Index-TRI 0.87% 6.13% 9.81% NDBIB-CRISIL 5 Year T-Bond Index-TRI 0.12% 4.05% 8.94% Source: www.crisil.com Central Bank Policy Rates 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sri Lanka 6.00% 7.00% 7.25% 8.00% US 0.25% - 0.50% 0.50% - 0.75% 1.25% - 1.50% 2.25% - 2.50% Euro Zone 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Australia 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% India 6.75% 6.25% 6.00% 6.50% Source: www.cbrates.com 1 YEAR TREASURY RATE - USD Vs.
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