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2015 DEVELOPMENT POLICY FINANCING RETROSPECTIVE Results and Sustainability

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2015 DEVELOPMENT POLICY FINANCING RETROSPECTIVE Results and Sustainability 2015 DEVELOPMENT POLICY FINANCING RETROSPECTIVE Results and Sustainability 2015 DEVELOPMENT POLICY FINANCING RETROSPECTIVE: RESULTS AND SUSTAINABILITY Operations Policy and Country Services The World Bank CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms .....................................................................................................................................vii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................................ix Executive Summary .....................................................................................................................................................xi Chapter 1. Introduction and Context of the Retrospective ...................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2. Ten Years of Development Policy Financing: Overall Trends ............................................................... 5 Development Policy Financing in IBRD Countries ......................................................................................................5 Development Policy Financing in IDA Countries .........................................................................................................7 Development Policy Financing in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations and Small States ................................9 Types of Development Policy Operations .....................................................................................................................11 Financing Options ............................................................................................................................................................12 Chapter 3. Reforms Supported by DPF and their Alignment with Poverty and Shared Prosperity ................... 15 Reforms Supported by DPF in the Last 10 Years .........................................................................................................15 Special Themes .................................................................................................................................................................16 Prior Actions and Their Alignment with Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity .............................................19 Conceptual framework ..........................................................................................................................................19 Results ....................................................................................................................................................................20 Chapter 4. Results in Development Policy Financing ............................................................................................ 23 Performance of DPF ........................................................................................................................................................26 Performance at the operation level .......................................................................................................................26 Achievement of individual results indicators .......................................................................................................28 Empirical Analysis of DPF Performance ......................................................................................................................29 Medium- and Long-Term Impact of Reforms Supported by DPF ............................................................................30 Public Financial Management ..............................................................................................................................30 Economic Policy .....................................................................................................................................................30 Chapter 5. Sustainability of Reforms Supported by Development Policy Financing ........................................... 33 Environmental Aspects ...................................................................................................................................................33 Methodology ..........................................................................................................................................................34 Findings of the analysis .........................................................................................................................................34 Social Aspects ...................................................................................................................................................................38 Methodology ..........................................................................................................................................................38 Findings of the analysis .........................................................................................................................................38 iii iv Economic Aspects ............................................................................................................................................................43 Consultations and Analytical Underpinnings ..............................................................................................................46 Consultations and Participation ...........................................................................................................................46 Analytical Underpinnings .....................................................................................................................................47 Chapter 6. Reforms ................................................................................................................................................... 49 Operational Policy Framework on Guarantees ............................................................................................................49 Framework for Risk Management in Operations ........................................................................................................49 Development Policy Financing with Deferred Drawdown Option and Catastrophic Risk Option .....................50 Chapter 7. Recommendations .................................................................................................................................. 55 Overarching measures .....................................................................................................................................................55 Measures to modernize DPF options ............................................................................................................................55 Measures to strengthen implementation of environmental and social requirements ............................................55 Annexes Annex 1: Choice of Financing Instrument ................................................................................................................59 Annex 2: Assessment of Fiduciary Risks in DPF ......................................................................................................61 Annex 3: Conceptual Framework Poverty and Shared Prosperity Diagnostic.....................................................63 Annex 4: Assessing Environment, Forest and Natural Resource Aspects in Development Policy Financing as per OP8.60 .........................................................................................69 Annex 5: Methodology for the Analysis of Poverty and Distributional Effects ...................................................77 Annex 6: Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks in World Bank Instruments ......81 Annex 7: Methodology for Evaluating the Quality of Results Frameworks .........................................................83 Annex 8: Methodology for the Assessment of the Medium- to Long-Term Impact of PFM Reforms .............85 Annex 9: Methodology for the Analysis of the Impact of World Bank Development Policy Financing on the Quality of Economic Policy ............................................................................................................87 Annex 10: Feedback from Consultations ....................................................................................................................89 Annex 11: Detailed Thematic Breakdown of Prior Actions (Q4FY12–Q2FY15) ..................................................91 Annex 12: Number of Operations and Commitments ..............................................................................................93 Annex 13: Retrospective Universe of DPOs (Q4FY12–Q2FY15) ............................................................................97 References.................................................................................................................................................................. 103 2015 Development Policy Financing Retrospective: Results and Sustainability v Boxes Box I.1: 2012 Development Policy Lending Retrospective – recommendations and follow-up actions.......3 Box II.1: What is behind the steady decline in the DPF share of IDA commitments? ...................................10 Box III.1: Moving to the next generation of reforms in DPF – some examples ................................................17 Box III.2: Examples of DPOs with gender-related prior actions .........................................................................18 Box
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