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Regional Flood Frequency Analaysis in Southern Africa

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Regional Flood Frequency Analaysis in Southern Africa Master Thesis, Department of Geosciences Regional Flood Frequency Analaysis in Southern Africa Alem Tadesse Haile 1200 T3H007 /s) 3 1000 800 600 400 Quantile Flood (m Flood Quantile 200 Observed Regional curve (LN3) 0 1 10 100 Return Period , T (years) Regional Flood Frequency Analaysis in Southern Africa Alem Tadesse Haile Master Thesis in Geosciences Discipline: Hydrology Department of Geosciences Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences UNIVERSITY OF OSLO 1. September 2011 © Alem Tadesse Haile, 2011 Supervisors: Lars Gottschalk (UiO) and Lena M. Tallaksen (UiO) This work is published digitally through DUO – Digitale Utgivelser ved UiO http://www.duo.uio.no It is also catalogued in BIBSYS (http://www.bibsys.no/english) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. Cover photo: the photograph of Mzimvubu River at Ku-Makuhola gauging site (T3H007): from http://www.dwaf.gov.za/Hydrology/CGI-BIN/HIS/CGIHis.exe/Photo?Station=T3H007 (Retrieved, 28/08/2011) and the lower graph indicates the distribution of the AMS of the river (from1972-2008). Acknowledgments First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors Prof. Lars Gottschalk and Prof. Lena M. Tallaksen for their consistent supervision, crucial advices, invaluable suggestions and unreserved cooperation throughout the project work and the preparation of the thesis. Their support and encouragement from the beginning up to the completion of this study is kindly appreciated. I also express my deep gratitude and appreciation to Prof. Chong-Yu Xu, for his kind supports in data collections and communications during the project work. I am grateful to all my lecturers in the section of Physical Geography, Hydrology and Geomatics for their academic supports and constructive feedbacks. Many thanks goes to my study group mates most especially, Nils Charles Prieur and Søren Nykjær Boje in the Hydrology discipline who make up a significant diversity from different context (open minded, introducing with different cultures, supporting in any faced difficulties that enabled me to develop alternative models of thinking, an open minded culture and staying confident without feeling alone). Your team spirit, academic and social input will be always remaining an extraordinary and forever missed. I would always be indebted to you all. I have a great pleasure in thanking my family and all friends for their being with me and for their continuous encouragement. Especially Hadgu Girmay, Tesfamariam Birhane, Kibrom Araya, Libaragachew Demile, Samai Sanon and others, your discussions and friendship were valuable academically, spiritually and socially throughout my studies and it will forever be appreciated and unforgettable. I am always proud and honorable because you all are my kind friends. “ኣቦካ ዘይብሉ ኣይገዛካ ደቂዓዲካ ዘብሉ ኣይዓዲካ ከም ዚበሃል እዩ እሞ ኒዚገበርኩምለይ ኩሉ ካብ ልቢ የመስግን” Last but not least, I would like to pass my great acknowledgments to all Geosciences staffs, students and library workers for their cooperation in giving necessary information and technical supports. I am also thankful to Quota scheme and staff workers that they gave me the chance for M.Sc. study at university Oslo, Norway, and the Norwegian government (lånekassen) for financial supports during my studies. Abstract Extreme floods are natural disasters often associated with losses of life, and severe impact to agricultural production and infrastructures. However, efficient estimations of the magnitude of such extreme events with their non-exceedance probabilities, either for design or risk management planning purposes, are often limited by the data availability (i.e., both in quality and quantity). In this study, regional frequency analyses of annual maximum series (AMS) of flood events from unregulated rivers of southern Africa were conducted. This includes preliminary data analysis (data screening and outlier analysis), sensitivity analysis, identification of homogenous regions and suitable regional distribution models for the regions, development of regional growth curves and regression models to estimate the quantile floods for unguaged catchments. The study area comprises five countries (459 stations): Namibia, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa. The AMS derived for each station were examined for validity, dependency, and the existence of outliers. After thorough examinations of the AM flood events, 122 gauging sites were selected for further analysis. The study area was divided into nine possible homogenous regions based on the geographical grouping method together with the heterogeneity tests. The AMS from Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi were grouped as regions R1, R2, R3 and R4, respectively, while the South African catchments were further classified into five possibly homogonous regions. The choice of an appropriate regional flood distribution model was performed based on L-moment approaches together with the index flood procedures and goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests. The Generalized Pareto (GPA), Pearson type III (PE3), Three-parameter lognormal (LN3) and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions were found to be suitable models for AMS of floods in southern Africa catchments. Regional flood frequency curves were constructed based on the best regional distribution for the nine regions and design floods estimated for the return periods of 2-500 years. Based on assessments the accuracy of the derived quantile- quantile plots, it was concluded that the performance of this regional approaches was satisfactory and also confirmed when validated against sites not included in the regional analysis. Keywords Outliers; index flood; regional flood frequency analysis; L-moment; Southern Africa I. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... i II. LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. iv III. LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vi 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 General background ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objective of the study .................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Target Group ................................................................................................................ 4 1.4 Limitation of the study ................................................................................................ 5 1.5 Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................................. 5 2. STUDY AREA AND DATA ............................................................................................. 7 2.1 Study area description ................................................................................................. 7 2.1.1 Geography of Southern Africa ............................................................................. 8 2.1.2 Climate and Vegetation ...................................................................................... 10 2.1.3 Hydro climatology .............................................................................................. 12 2.2 Data collection ........................................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 Data source ......................................................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Selection of flood data: Annual Maximum Series (AMS) ................................. 16 2.2.3 Site characteristics .............................................................................................. 17 3. THEORY AND METHODOLOGY................................................................................. 19 3.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 19 3.1.1 Methods of RFFA ............................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 Procedures of RFFA ........................................................................................... 21 3.2 Exploratory data analysis ........................................................................................... 21 3.2.1 Data screening .................................................................................................... 22 3.2.2 Empirical distribution ......................................................................................... 26 3.2.3 Outlier detection and treatments ........................................................................ 28 3.2.4 Index flood method ............................................................................................ 32 3.3 Regionalization .......................................................................................................... 34 3.3.1 Delineation of homogeneous regions ................................................................. 34 i 3.3.2 Homogeneity Test .............................................................................................. 35 3.4 Choice of regional flood frequency distribution .......................................................
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