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TITIJAYA LAND (TTJ.MK, TITIJYA.KL) 2 July 2014

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TITIJAYA LAND (TTJ.MK, TITIJYA.KL) 2 July 2014 PROPERTY TITIJAYA LAND (TTJ.MK, TITIJYA.KL) 2 July 2014 Growth trajectory from land banking moves Company report BUY Hoy Ken Mak (Initiation) [email protected] +603 2036 2294 Rationale for report: Initiation Price RM2.49 Investment Highlights Fair Value RM3.30 52-week High/Low RM2.54/RM1.42 • We initiate coverage on Titijaya Land with a BUY rating Key Changes and a fair value of RM3.30/share – pegged to a 25% Fair value Initiation discount to our estimated NAV of RM4.40/share. Our fair EPS Initiation value implies a PE of 13x on FY15F FD EPS. YE to June FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F • Titijaya is an under-researched mid-cap developer that is experienced in sourcing value-accretive land deals, Revenue (RMmil) 186.2 264.8 378.9 514.4 particularly development sites in mature residential Core net profit (RMmil) 55.6 68.4 95.5 122.8 Core FD EPS (Sen) 21.5 18.3 25.6 32.9 neighbourhoods. Core FD EPS growth (%) n/a (14.8) 39.6 28.6 Consensus EPS (Sen) n/a n/a n/a • The group is under the stewardship of entrepreneurial DPS (Sen) 0.0 4.0 5.5 7.5 major shareholder, Tan Sri Lim Soon Peng, who has a Core FD PE (x) n/m 13.6 9.7 7.6 61% stake and a strong appetite for growth. EV/EBITDA (x) n/a 9.8 7.3 5.5 Div yield (%) n/m 1.6 2.2 3.0 • Existing locked-in presales of RM550mil alone should ROE (%) 9.6 8.8 10.8 12.1 Net Gearing (%) 40.2 9.7 16.3 7.0 see Titijaya delivering a net profit of c.RM95mil in FY15F (ending 30 June) vs. an estimated RM68mil in FY14F. Stock and Financial Data • For FY16F, we are forecasting net profit to expand by Shares Outstanding (million) 340.0 another 29% to RM123mil. Hence from the earnings Market Cap (RMmil) 846.6 standpoint, Titijaya is trading at an attractive FY15F PE Book value (RM/share) 0.8 of only 9x when compared to its larger peers’ 15x. This P/BV (x) n/a ROE (%) 9.6 is backed by its solid three-year forward earnings CAGR Net Gearing (%) 40.2 of 30%. Major Shareholders Tan Sri Dato’ SP Lim & family (61.4 %) • Titijaya is currently developing a modern retail mall located in the highly populated suburb of Shah Alam. Free Float (%) 38.6 When completed in 2017, it will have a significant 1.3mil Avg Daily Value (RMmil) 1.6 sq ft of net floor area (NFA). The said mall should Price performance 3mth 6mth 12mth underpin the take-up rate of its residential presales and raise pricing points. Absolute (%) 26.5 64.2 n/a Relative (%) 24.4 63.2 n/a • We sense that the group may opt to unlock the deep value of its mall, and recycle its capital to strengthen its balance sheet for more aggressive land banking initiatives ahead. Based on our estimated selling price of RM1,000 psf, the mall is worth about RM1.3bil, which is more than its current market cap of RM847mil. • In just six months since its IPO debut in November 2013, Titijaya has announced two prolific land deals in Brickfields and Batu Maung. Set to be launched in FY16F, both projects that are sited on prime land are set to double Titijaya’s GDV to ~RM7bil; this will anchor its increasingly robust pre-sales pipeline. • TItijaya’s balance sheet remains healthy with an FY14F net gearing ratio of 0.1x, which suggests ample room for more NAV-accretive land banking moves or projects. At the same time, the group could be looking to pay out c.20% of its profits as dividends. Maiden dividends are expected in 4QFY14. PP 12247/06/2013 (032380) TITIJAYA LAND 2 July 2014 TABLE 1: DERIVATION OF FAIR VALUE Division Market Value (RM) Method Effective % of mil /share stake (% ) NAV DEVELOPMENT PROPERTIES NPV @ 9% Subang Parkhomes Phase 2 35.8 0.10 100.0 Seri Alam Industrial Park Phase 1 & 2 52.5 0.14 100.0 Zone Innovation Park @ Sg.Kapar Indah: Phase 1 & 2 33.3 0.09 100.0 Subsequent phases of Zone Innovation Park @ Sg.Kapar Indah 16.1 0.04 100.0 The Galleria 26.4 0.07 100.0 3Elements 51.3 0.14 100.0 Embun @ Kemensah Phase 1 29.8 0.08 100.0 H20 113.7 0.30 100.0 Subsequent Phases of Seri Alam Industrial Park 78.1 0.21 100.0 Klang Sentral Service Apartment 114.7 0.31 100.0 Trio 78.5 0.21 100.0 Mutiara Residence Phase 2 9.2 0.02 100.0 Penang 284.3 0.76 100.0 Brickfields 101.6 0.27 70.0 Unbilled sales 80.8 0.22 70.0 Sub-total 1,106.3 2.96 67.3 INVESTMENT PROPERTIES Trio, Shah Alam 1,300.0 3.48 Market Value 100.0 Others 76.4 0.20 Book Value 100.0 Sub-total 1,376.4 3.69 83.7 Gross NAV 2,482.7 6.65 Net debt (31.2) (0.08) As at 31 Mar 2014 (1.9) Trio Shah Alam (construction/infra cost) (807.5) (2.16) Est. Construction cost (49.1) Net NAV 1,644.0 4.40 100.0 FD No of shares 373.3 RNAV/share 4.40 Fair Value (less 25% discount) 3.30 Capital gain (%) 36.5 FY14F yield (%) 1.7 Total Return (%) 38.1 Discount to NAV (45.0) Source: Titijaya, AmResearch INITIATE COVERAGE WITH A BUY (iii) Investment properties primarily consist of its corporate headquarters in Subang Jaya. We assign Fair value – RM3.30/share a value of RM76mil, based on its book value. We initiate coverage on Titijaya Land with a BUY and a The 25% discount that we ascribe to Titijaya’s NAV is at fair value of RM3.30/share . Our fair value is pegged at a the higher end of the 10%-30% range for property stocks 25% discount to its estimated RNAV/share of under our coverage (i.e. IJM Land, E&O and UEM RM4.40/share. Sunrise), while we peg Mah Sing at parity to its NAV. The key segments of our fair value are: [Note: We had previously assigned a discount of 15% to IJM Land’s NAV prior to a general offer (GO) made by its (i) Development properties make up RM1.1bil parent IJM Corp earlier this month. We have since (RM2.96/share) or about two-thirds of Titijaya’s NAV. pegged IJM Land’s valuation to its GO price of This is based on a discount rate of 9% rate to arrive RM3.55/share]. at the NPV of its projects. The steeper NAV discount reflects Titijaya’s relatively (ii) Trio – The retail portion of its upcoming integrated smaller market cap and trading liquidity when compared mixed development project in Shah Alam is valued at to its larger peers (See Table 1). RM492mil (ex- construction/infrastructure cost). To be completed in 2017, the mall’s Net Floor Area But we expect this valuation gap to narrow as (NLA) is estimated at 1.3 million sf. Titijaya gains traction as a fast-growing property outfit with increasing land banking newsflow. AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2 TITIJAYA LAND 2 July 2014 WHAT WE LIKE ABOUT TITIJAYA profits to shareholders, although no formal policy has been established. 1) Titijaya is a fresh property story – its land banking prowess is on the ascendancy. In just six months after its initial public offering (IPO) in November 2013, the group announced acquisitions of two A RISING STAR strategic pieces of land in Brickfields and Penang. More NAV-accretive land deals could happen in the Completed RM1.1bil worth of properties since coming months. 2001 2) This reflects Titijaya’s strong access to prime land From its early days as a sub-contractor back in the and astute deal-making capabilities, led by the 1980s, Titijaya has emerged to become an up-and- entrepreneurial leadership of its MD and major coming property development outfit. shareholder, Tan Sri Lim Soon Peng. Titijaya became a property company through the 3) The two new projects mentioned above will nearly incorporation of its subsidiary, NPO Development in double Titijaya’s outstanding GDV to c.RM7bil with 1997. improved earnings visibility until 2023. In 2001, Titijaya showcased its first residential project, 4) Titijaya is majority-owned by the founding Lim Mutiara Bukit Raja, in Klang. The gated and guarded family, with a combined 61% stake. Management residential development comprises 298 units of terrace continuity is assured with two of Tan Sri Lim’s houses, residential lots and low-cost apartments. children playing pivotal roles in senior management. For the most of the last decade, Titijaya carved a niche 5) The purchase of the Penang land in Batu Maung as a developer of mid-cost residential and commercial (close to the Second Penang Bridge) signifies the properties in Klang and Subang Jaya. management’s ambitions to diversify its development footprint beyond the Klang Valley in Since then, Titijaya has completed over 3,000 units of search of more growth. As such, RM30mil from its properties with a combined GDV of ~RM1.1bil. These total IPO proceeds of RM123mil has been set aside projects have been highly successful with little for land banking activities. inventories left. 6) Part of the RM50mil worth of Redeemable A multi-faceted developer Convertible Preference Shares (RCPS) that were issued in March 2013 includes the conversion of Over the years, the Titijaya group has demonstrated its company advances by the Lim family.
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