Area: Subsaharan Africa ARI 29/2008 (Translated from Spanish) Date: 11/4/2008 Failed States in Africa: The Zimbabwean Experience Carlos García Rivero* Theme: Zimbabwe is one of the failed States of Africa due to the violence and power monopoly wielded by the Mugabe regime. Summary: Zimbabwe is a failed State on the verge of collapse. Robert Mugabe and his party –the Zimbabwe African National Unity Front-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF)– have remained in control since the country gained independence in the early 1980s and have done so by abusing the State’s resources, using violence and perpetuating themselves in power through electoral fraud. If we add to this the fact that the country’s economy and humanitarian situation is deteriorating daily, we are clearly looking at a time bomb, which could explode at any time in the form of a civil war that is merely waiting to be triggered. Zimbabwe is a prime example of the consequences of the unlimited abuse of power and the incapacity of international pressure to prevent the entirely foreseeable failure of a State which jeopardises regional stability. This ARI examines the structural causes of the problem: violence and the monopoly of power by the Mugabe regime. It also describes the catastrophic social, humanitarian and economic situation facing the population. Against the backdrop of the forthcoming elections on 29 March, the paper looks at the possibilities of a turnaround in the situation which would lead to the final downfall of Zimbabwe or the start of its recovery. Analysis: After independence, most Subsaharan African countries became single-party States under the assumption that this was necessary to rebuild nations and develop their economies. Based on this assumption, at best, the opposition was tolerated as long as it was not a threat, but usually it was eliminated, co-opted or simply forced into exile, as in Tunisia, Chad, Senegal, Tanzania, Zambia, Kenya and the Ivory Coast, among others. Other countries did not converge into a single-party system but into a military regime, like Ethiopia, Liberia and Uganda, but most of these and the other countries are today failed States.1 In the 1990s, when the Cold War drew to an end, the situation in the region changed drastically and alternation of power came in countries as different as Mali, Zambia, Kenya and São Tomé & Principe. The wars in Mozambique and Angola ended and South Africa transitioned to democracy, with Nelson Mandela inaugurated as President of the Republic in 1994 after spending half his life in prison. The southern African cone became a * Tenured professor at Burgos University’s Political Science and Administration Department, and specialist in elections, democracy and political stability in Subsaharan Africa. 1 In the list of failed States for 2007 compiled by The Fund for Peace (http://www.fundforpeace.org), there are 32 countries in the ‘alert’ zone, of which 18 are in Africa; 34 African countries are ‘in warning’, while only two African countries are ‘moderate’ –Mauritius and South Africa– and not a single African country is classified as ‘sustainable’. 1 Area: Subsaharan Africa ARI 29/2008 (Translated from Spanish) Date: 11/4/2008 standard-bearer for political stability and economic potential for the entire continent. However, in other countries the opposition was not as successful. This was the case in Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe and his party –the Zimbabwe African National Unity Front-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF)– have been in power since the country’s independence in the early 1980s. Intimidation, the abuse of State power by the governing party, violence and the lack of transparency have prevailed in all electoral processes so far, the purpose of which has been to ‘democratically’ endorse the Mugabe regime. The opposition has had no chance, both because of the legislation in place and the interpretation thereof, and because of the widespread political violence, one of the main causes of the current political and economic dismemberment, which has led the country from independence in the early 1980s to chaos at the end of the present decade. In 2007, Zimbabwe ranked fourth on the Fund for Peace’s Failed States Index Scores, behind only Sudan, Iraq and Somalia, and at the head of the indicators of ‘mounting demographic pressure’ and ‘sharp and/or severe economic decline’. If Zimbabwe’s instability is added to the instability of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the recent unrest in Kenya after the electoral fraud in early 2008, a triangle of regional instability emerges which not only threatens these three countries, but jeopardises the political stabilisation and economic recovery of the entire southern African cone and of central Africa. Zimbabwe obtained full independence in 1980 after a long struggle between ZANU-PF and the Zimbabwean African People’s Union (ZAPU), on the one hand, and the government which declared unilateral independence from the UK in 1965, on the other. Since independence, Robert Mugabe, leader of ZANU-PF, launched a process to obtain absolute power in the country to the extent where there are areas, particularly at local level, which do not distinguish between the institutional structures and those of the governing party. Zimbabwe held parliamentary elections in 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, all of which were won by Mugabe’s ZANU-PF and all of which triggered accusations of fraud, violence and intimidation. The next elections are scheduled for the end of March 2008. Until the emergence of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), the main opposition party was the ZAPU, but it was absorbed by ZANU-PF in 1987. Since then, new opposition organisations have appeared, such as the National Constitutional Assembly in 1997 and, in 1999, the aforementioned MDC. ZANU-PF’s only defeat at the polls was in a constitutional referendum in February 2000, which led some to believe that the 2002 presidential elections might result in the alternation of power. However, ZANU-PF won again against a backdrop of extraordinary levels of intimidation and bloodshed. Government militants and security forces have acted with total impunity, and Amnesty International has repeatedly denounced rights violations by members of the State security forces themselves –police, army and intelligence– as well as the militia which have the consent and backing of the government and receive public resources and funds. They have structural impunity in Zimbabwe due to the presidential pardons and clemency, the lack of transparency and the total absence of cooperation to identify those agents of the State who are accused of perpetrating human rights breaches, and the harassment of human rights activists and the independent press, not to mention the partiality of the judicial system. Generalised use of torture in Zimbabwe is not new. As far back as the 1970s, during the war of liberation against the Ian Smith government, torture was commonplace, and it has 2 Area: Subsaharan Africa ARI 29/2008 (Translated from Spanish) Date: 11/4/2008 continued ever since. Under Mugabe’s governments, torture –and political violence in general– have also been and still are present. For example, during the unrest following food shortages in the capital, Harare, in 1988, Mugabe sent police and army units to control the uprising, leading to mass torture both on the streets and in detention centres. Since 1999, the torture has increased and has been used mainly to repress the opposition and against those under suspicion of militating in the opposition MDC party, preventing a real democratisation process from prospering. However, torture has also been used against farmers and journalists who have been victims of the terror policies imposed by the government to control the population. Torture and violence have increased during election periods, and only members of ZANU- PF have escaped. According to Amani Trust, a humanitarian NGO operating in Zimbabwe, the cases of torture take place both before and after elections, with around 90% of victims being members of the MDC and the rest are politically unaffiliated teachers, union members and farmers. The same organisation estimates that around 20% of the country’s total population has suffered torture, including the so-called ‘political rapes’ of women belonging to the MDC, under suspicion of belonging to it or married to MDC militants, although there is no detailed documentation in this regard. Another group which has also suffered systematic violations is that of farmers. Since independence, the redistribution of land held by white colonists had been one of President Mugabe’s electoral promises. In 2000, to meet the demands of the black population, especially his own followers, who were unhappy with the delay of more than 20 years in redistributing land, Mugabe’s government incited the occupation of farms by war veterans, leading to attacks, rapes and deaths. According to Amani Trust’s data regarding farm- owners who were expelled from their lands, 71% of them were tortured and in 55% of the documented cases the torture was performed in the presence of children. The land reform programme, which basically consists of giving a free rein of impunity to attacks on farms, had a parallel impact: the decline in farms’ productivity, lower exports, loss of currency inflows and a slump in food production. This, in addition to the poor harvests and drought throughout southern Africa, resulted in an acute food shortage which currently affects most of the population and is creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, to which the government has responded by blocking foreign aid. Indeed, the government actually chose to prohibit private food aid plans and use public ones to punish the opposition and help the regime’s supporters. Members of the media have not escaped the violence and torture either. Independent journalists operate in Zimbabwe under severe restrictions on what they can say.