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CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC September 2019 – August 2020 Issued in November 2019 CAR: 1.6 MILLION PEOPLE SEVERELY FOOD INSECURE

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CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC September 2019 – August 2020 Issued in November 2019 CAR: 1.6 MILLION PEOPLE SEVERELY FOOD INSECURE IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC September 2019 – August 2020 Issued in November 2019 CAR: 1.6 MILLION PEOPLE SEVERELY FOOD INSECURE CURRENT SEPTEMBER 2019 - APRIL 2020 PROJECTED MAY - AUGUST 2020 (Lean season) Phase 5 0 Phase 5 0 People in Catastrophe People in Catastrophe 1.6M* Phase 4 375,000 2.1M Phase 4 675,000 35% of the population People in Emergency 47% of the population People in Emergency People facing severe Phase 3 1,240,000 Phase 3 1,450,000 People in Crisis People facing severe People in Crisis acute food insecurity acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 1,730,000 (IPC Phase 3+) Phase 2 1,595,000 People in Stress People in Stress IN NEED OF URGENT ACTION IN NEED OF URGENT * The estimate includes the mitigation Phase 1 1,255,000 Phase 1 880,000 effects of food assistance planned for People minimally ACTION People minimally the period. food insecure food insecure Overview Current Situation September 2019 - April 2020 Taking into account the effects of planned food assistance In the period from September 2019 to April 2020, corresponding to the post-harvest period in most of the country’s agro-climatic Camp Birao zones, it is estimated that despite planned food assistance, the Birao Vakaga sub-prefectures of Obo, Zémio, Bria, Ndjoukou, Ippy, Kouango, Ouanda-djallé Batangafo and Kabo are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while 47 Ndélé ± Bamingui-Bangoran Ouadda sub-prefectures are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 1.6 million people, Bamingui Kabo Markounda Nana-Gribizi Batangafo Haute-Kotto representing 35% of the population analysed (4.6 million), are Ngaoundaye Yalinga Paoua Nana-bakassa Nangha Boguila Koui Bocaranga Mbrès Ouham Kaga-bandoro Bria Djéma severely acutely food insecure, including 375,000 (nearly 10%) Ouham Pendé Bakala Bozoum Bouca Dékoa Bossangoa Mala Ouaka Ippy Haut-Mbomou Bouar Sibut in Emergency situations. During the lean season, between Bossemtélé Baboua Kémo Grimari Bambari Rafai Nana-Mambéré Yaloké Bakouma Baoro Bogangolo Obo Bambouti Mbomou Zémio Bossembélé Ndjoukou May and August 2020, in the absence of food assistance, it Abba Mingala Ombella M'Poko Kouango Alindao Bangassou Gadzi Amada-gaza Damara Carnot Boali Basse-Kotto Boganangone Gambo is estimated that 2.1 million people, representing 47% of the Kembé Zangba Mobaye Gamboula Mambéré-Kadéï Boganda Satéma Bangui Ouango Berbérati Bimbo BodaLobaye population analysed, will be severely acutely food insecure, Dédé-mokouba Sosso-nakombo Bambio Mbaïki Nola Sangha-Mbaéré Mongoumba including more than 675,000 people in Emergency situations. 8 e 4 e 5 e Bayanga 1 er 7 e In total, 1.6 million people in the current period and 2.1 million 3 e 2 e 6 e 0 100 200 400 people in the projected period are in urgent need of action Bangui Km to save their lives, protect their livelihoods and reduce their food deficits. Projected Situation May - August 2020 In the absence of food assistance Key Drivers Conflicts Displacement High prices The presence of The renewed activity Seasonal price armed groups and of armed groups in increases, particularly inter-community much of the country in the city of Bangui, conflicts persist, and the precarious and low household particularly in insecurity are purchasing power, border areas. leading to pendulum will reduce their movements of access to food populations. consumption. Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification 1 - Minimal Areas with inadequate evidence Area receives significant humanitarian food assistance 2 - Stress Areas not analysed (inaccessible) (accounted for in Phase classification) 3 - Crisis > 25% of households meet 25-50% IDPs/other settlements of caloric needs through assistance 4 - Emergency classification > 25% of households meet > 50% 5 - Famine of caloric needs through assistance CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 2 CURRENT IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION SEPTEMBER 2019 - APRIL 2020 Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Camp Birao Phase Classification Birao Vakaga Phase 1 - Minimal Ouanda-djallé 2 - Stress Ndélé ± Bamingui-Bangoran 3 - Crisis Ouadda Bamingui Kabo 4 - Emergency Markounda Nana-Gribizi Batangafo Haute-Kotto Ngaoundaye Yalinga 5 - Famine Paoua Nana-bakassa Nangha Boguila Koui Bocaranga Mbrès Ouham Kaga-bandoro Bria Djéma Areas with inadequate evidence Ouham Pendé Bakala Bozoum Bouca Dékoa Bossangoa Mala Ouaka Ippy Haut-Mbomou Areas not analysed (inaccessible) Bouar Sibut Baboua Bossemtélé Kémo Grimari Bambari Rafai Nana-Mambéré Yaloké Bakouma Baoro Bogangolo Obo Bambouti Mbomou Zémio Bossembélé Ndjoukou IDPs/other settlements Abba Mingala Ombella M'Poko Kouango Alindao Bangassou Gadzi classification Amada-gaza Damara Carnot Boali Basse-Kotto Boganangone Gambo Zangba Kembé Mobaye Gamboula Mambéré-Kadéï Boganda Satéma Area receives significant Bangui Ouango Berbérati Bimbo BodaLobaye humanitarian food assistance Dédé-mokouba Sosso-nakombo Bambio Mbaïki (accounted for in Phase classification) Nola Sangha-Mbaéré Mongoumba 8 e 4 e > 25% of households meet 5 e 25-50% of caloric needs Bayanga 1 er 7 e 3 e through assistance 2 e 6 e 0 100 200 400 Bangui > 25% of households meet Km > 50% of caloric needs through assistance Population table for the current period: September 2019 - April 2020 Préfecture Population Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3 + total #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % Bamingui- 59,632 15,364 26 26,377 44 14,908 25 2,981 5 0 0 17,889 30 Bangoran Bangui 876,341 438,170 50 306,719 35 131,451 15 0 0 0 0 131,451 15 Basse-Kotto 278,613 39,952 14 88,957 32 109,882 39 39,815 14 0 0 149,697 53 Haut-Mbomou 61,185 6,117 10 16,633 27 23,804 39 14,627 24 0 0 38,431 63 Haute-Kotto 88,319 13,247 15 26,495 30 30,911 35 17,663 20 0 0 48,574 55 Kémo 152,163 36,946 24 50,072 33 42,787 28 22,349 15 0 0 65,136 43 Lobaye 307,299 73,319 24 175,540 57 43,069 14 15,363 5 0 0 58,432 19 Mambéré-Kadéï 283,915 73,761 26 79,329 28 96,651 34 34,164 12 0 0 130,815 46 Mbomou 209,681 34,345 16 79,086 38 72,183 34 24,060 11 0 0 96,243 45 Nana-Gribizi 120,197 18,029 15 48,078 40 36,059 30 18,029 15 0 0 54,088 45 Nana-Mambéré 221,326 71,044 32 120,515 54 24,515 11 5,247 2 0 0 29,762 13 Ombella M'Poko 432,893 194,209 45 163,683 38 68,866 16 6,126 1 0 0 74,992 17 Ouaka 368,293 57,100 16 122,820 33 141,378 38 46,989 13 0 0 188,367 51 Ouham 451,781 55,360 12 144,715 32 188,922 42 62,773 14 0 0 251,695 56 Ouham-Pendé 491,570 86,957 17 225,549 46 140,779 29 38,275 8 0 0 179,054 37 Sangha-Mbaéré 126,765 31,691 25 34,610 27 43,607 34 16,853 13 0 0 60,460 47 Vakaga 66,041 5,406 8 20,416 31 32,114 49 8,104 12 0 0 40,218 61 Total 4,596,014 1,251,017 27 1,729,594 38 1,241,886 27 373,418 8 0 0 1,615,304 35 Note: the population in Phase 3 and above does not necessarily reflect the entire population in need of urgent action. Indeed, some households may be in Phase 2 or even Phase 1 only because of the assistance received and may therefore require ongoing action. This IPC analysis used the most recent information provided by OCHA-ICASEES (2020 projections based on the 2003 census) as the reference population for the areas studied. Since the figures for internally displaced persons take into account any displacement, including within the same prefecture or sub-prefecture, as well as within the same city (between neighbourhoods and sites), decision-makers should interpret the figures in a dynamic way. CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS 3 PROJECTED IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION May - August 2020 Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification Phase 1 - Minimal 2 - Stress 3 - Crisis 4 - Emergency 5 - Famine Areas with inadequate evidence Areas not analysed (inaccessible) IDPs/other settlements classification Area receives significant humanitarian food assistance (accounted for in Phase classification) > 25% of households meet 25-50% of caloric needs through assistance > 25% of households meet > 50% of caloric needs through assistance Population table for the projected period: May - August 2020 Préfecture Population Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 3 + total #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % #people % Bamingui- 59,632 6,876 12 28,902 48 17,889 30 5,963 10 0 0 23,852 40 Bangoran Bangui 876,341 306,719 35 350,536 40 175,268 20 43,817 5 0 0 219,085 25 Basse-Kotto 278,613 37,977 13 65,480 24 119,428 43 55,721 20 0 0 175,149 63 Haut-Mbomou 61,185 6,117 10 9,177 15 26,194 43 19,692 32 0 0 45,886 75 Haute-Kotto 88,319 8,831 10 13,247 15 30,911 35 35,327 40 0 0 66,238 75 Kémo 152,163 27,037 18 52,380 34 48,568 32 24,171 16 0 0 72,739 48 Lobaye 307,299 53,051 17 157,136 51 68,069 22 29,035 9 0 0 97,104 31 Mambéré-Kadéï 283,915 39,192 13 87,849 31 109,995 39 46,868 17 0 0 156,863 56 Mbomou 209,681 30,407 15 62,654 30 86,616 41 29,998 14 0 0 116,614 55 Nana-Gribizi 120,197 18,029 15 30,049 25 42,068 35 30,049 25 0 0 72,117 60 Nana-Mambéré 221,326 37,461 17 110,940 50 58,325 26 14,594 7 0 0 72,919 33 Ombella M'Poko 432,893 133,273 31 182,138 42 92,479 21 24,996 6 0 0 117,475 27 Ouaka 368,293 44,482 12 95,665 26 141,582 38 86,554 24 0 0 228,136 62 Ouham 451,781 58,340 13 129,390 29 173,624 38 90,414 20 0 0 264,038 58 Ouham-Pendé 491,570 49,154 10 169,417 34 179,369 36 93,619 19 0 0 272,988 55 Sangha-Mbaéré 126,765 17,612 14 36,011 28 49,946 39 23,191 18 0 0 73,137 57 Vakaga 66,041 5,104 8 12,010 18 29,718 45 19,208 29 0 0 48,926 74 Total 4,596,014 879,662 18 1,592,981 35 1,450,049 32 673,217 15 0 0 2,123,266 47 Note: the population in Phase 3 and above reflects the entire population in need of urgent action.
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