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Africa's Role in Nation-Building: an Examination of African-Led Peace

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Africa's Role in Nation-Building: an Examination of African-Led Peace AFRICA’S ROLE IN NATION-BUILDING An Examination of African-Led Peace Operations James Dobbins, James Pumzile Machakaire, Andrew Radin, Stephanie Pezard, Jonathan S. Blake, Laura Bosco, Nathan Chandler, Wandile Langa, Charles Nyuykonge, Kitenge Fabrice Tunda C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2978 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0264-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: U.S. Air Force photo/ Staff Sgt. Ryan Crane; Feisal Omar/REUTERS. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Since the turn of the century, the African Union (AU) and subregional organizations in Africa have taken on increasing responsibilities for peace operations throughout that continent. This report, co-authored by researchers at the RAND Corporation and the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), builds on RAND’s previous volumes on U.S., European, and United Nations (UN) nation-building efforts to explore the experience of African-led peace operations. It draws observations and recommendations from six detailed case studies of African-led missions in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Comoros, Somalia, and the Lake Chad Basin. This research was sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. It was conducted jointly by the National Security Research Divi- sion (NSRD) of the RAND Corporation and ACCORD. It was con- ducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND NSRD. NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Com- batant Commands, the defense agencies, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the Center director (contact information provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ............................................................... ix Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Scope, Methodology, and Definitions ........................................... 2 African Architecture for Peace Operations ...................................... 6 CHAPTER TWO Burundi ............................................................................19 Challenges .........................................................................25 African and Other International Roles ........................................ 28 What Happened ...................................................................32 Lessons Learned .................................................................. 38 CHAPTER THREE Central African Republic ...................................................... 43 Challenges .........................................................................47 African and Other International Roles .........................................51 What Happened ...................................................................59 Lessons Learned .................................................................. 68 v vi Africa’s Role in Nation-Building CHAPTER FOUR Darfur, Sudan ................................................................... 77 Challenges .........................................................................82 African and Other International Roles .........................................91 What Happened ................................................................. 103 Lessons Learned ................................................................. 118 CHAPTER FIVE Comoros ......................................................................... 125 Challenges ....................................................................... 126 African and Other International Roles ....................................... 131 What Happened ................................................................. 134 Lessons Learned ................................................................. 139 CHAPTER SIX Somalia .......................................................................... 145 Challenges ....................................................................... 147 African and Other International Roles ....................................... 152 What Happened ................................................................. 158 Lessons Learned ................................................................. 164 CHAPTER SEVEN The MNJTF, Response to Boko Haram ................................... 169 Challenges ....................................................................... 171 African and Other International Roles ....................................... 182 What Happened ................................................................. 193 Lessons Learned ................................................................. 204 CHAPTER EIGHT Comparative Analysis ......................................................... 207 Security ........................................................................... 209 Economic Reconstruction ...................................................... 219 Democratization ................................................................. 221 African Peace Operations in Context ......................................... 225 CHAPTER NINE Conclusions ..................................................................... 229 Contents vii APPENDIXES A. Nation-Building Supporting Data .................................... 235 B. Performance Indicators .................................................. 253 Bibliography .................................................................... 255 Figures and Tables Figures 1.1. Troops Deployed to Peace Operations in Africa, by Leadership, 2000–2014 .............................................. 7 1.2. Number of African Peacekeepers in UN Peace Operations in Africa ...............................................................17 2.1. Map of Burundi ..................................................... 20 3.1. Map of the Central African Republic ............................ 44 3.2. Membership of CEN-SAD, CEMAC, and ECCAS ............53 3.3. Increase of CAR Refugees, 2002–2014 ...........................65 4.1. Map of Sudan ........................................................78 4.2. Map of Darfur .......................................................79 4.3. Comparing Troop Composition for UNAMID and UNMIS/S ........................................................... 101 4.4. Refugee and IDP Populations, Sudan ........................... 110 4.5. Humanitarian Incidents, Darfur ................................ 110 5.1. Map of the Islands of Comoros .................................. 126 6.1. Map of Somalia .................................................... 146 6.2. Troop-Contributing Country Timeline......................... 154 7.1. Map of Lake Chad Basin ......................................... 170 8.1. Peak Military Presence (Number of Troops Deployed) ....... 210 8.2. Peak Military Presence (Number of Troops Deployed per 1,000 Inhabitants) ................................................. 211 8.3. Peak Civilian Police Presence (Number of Police Deployed) ........................................................... 213 8.4. Peak Civilian Police Presence (Number of Police Deployed per 1,000 Inhabitants) ............................................. 214 ix x Africa’s Role in Nation-Building 8.5. Peak Police-to-Military Ratio (Number of Police Deployed per 1,000 Troops) ................................................. 215 8.6. Duration of Operations (Years) .................................. 216 8.7. Refugee Returns After Five Years (Percentage) ................. 218 8.8. Average Annual Per Capita Assistance Over First Two Years of Operations (2000 U.S. Dollars) ............................... 222 8.9. Average Annual Growth in Per Capita GDP Over the First Five
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