Policy Entrepreneurs in US-Cuba Policy, 1989-2006: Testing The
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Policy Entrepreneurs in US-Cuba Policy, 1989-2006: Testing the Multiple Streams Framework by Marina Sistovaris, B.A., M.A. A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The School of Public Policy and Administration Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario Canada December 2010 ©2010, Marina Sistovaris Library and Archives Bibliotheque et 1*1 Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your We Votre r6f6rence ISBN: 978-0-494-79618-4 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-79618-4 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, preter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non support microforme, papier, electronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in this et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. Ni thesis. Neither the thesis nor la these ni des extraits substantiels de celle-ci substantial extracts from it may be ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement printed or otherwise reproduced reproduits sans son autorisation. without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne sur la Privacy Act some supporting forms protection de la vie privee, quelques may have been removed from this formulaires secondaires ont ete enleves de thesis. cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n'y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. 1+1 Canada Abstract John Kingdon's Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) rests on the notion that the agenda setting process involves the movement of three constantly flowing and independent streams—problems, policy, and politics—each competing for the attention of decision makers. The opportunity for an issue to move onto the decision agenda and capture the attention of decision makers occurs with the opening of a policy window which provides a policy entrepreneur (PE) an opportunity to couple the streams. PEs must seize the opportunity to initiate action during this critical period because windows are open for only a short time. Once a window is closed, the three streams separate, signaling that interest in the issue has dissipated, and the opportunity for action is lost. The MSF's transformation from a descriptive framework to a full fledged theory according to critics has been hindered by a lack of explicit hypotheses. This study attempts to contribute to its transformation by subjecting hypotheses generated from the MSF concerning a key component of the MSF—PEs—to testing. Although the MSF accords PEs a central role in policy making, its operationalization of PEs and their actions in the context of the agenda setting process as depicted by the MSF have been neither formally articulated nor tested. This study utilizes a quantitative approach as a method of inquiry. Theoretical propositions generated from the MSF serve as the general analytical strategy for the study as well as structure the research design. Drawing upon the experience, knowledge and efforts of individuals to influence US-Cuba policy ii between 1989 and 2006, a survey consisting of standardized questions is used as the principal method of data collection. Raw survey data are analyzed using various statistical procedures and tests to either confirm or reject hypotheses generated from the MSF. The results are compared with the empirical evidence to determine whether there is a good fit between fact and theory. The results of the study provide weak evidence to support the MSF's characterization of PEs and their actions in the agenda setting process as depicted by the framework, suggesting that further refinement of the MSF's entrepreneurial concept is necessary. HI Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, Brian Tomlin, whose guidance and patience helped bring this dissertation to fruition. I also wish to express my gratitude to members of my supervising committee, Leslie Pal, David Mendeloff and Jose Galdo for their constructive feedback and involvement in the project. Thank you to Nicki Enouy and the faculty and staff at the School of Public Policy and Administration for their assistance over the years. Thank you to the individuals who generously agreed to participate in this study by taking time to complete questionnaires. Without your input this dissertation would have not been possible. To my friends, Shivani and Ballu Thakur, Bill and Trish McDonnell, and sister, Dorothy Sistovaris, thank you for your encouragement. A special thank you to Stephan Wasylko for igniting my interest in US-Cuba policy. Finally, there are no words that can adequately express my gratitude to my parents, Cosmas and Ecaterina Sistovaris, for their unwavering love, support and confidence in me without which this dissertation would have never been completed. This dissertation is dedicated to them. IV Table of Contents Abstract ii Acknowledgements iv List of Tables viii List of Figures ix List of Appendices x Acronyms xi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 The Case of US-Cuba Policy 4 1.2 Research Objectives 13 1.3 Methodology 13 1.4 Significance of the Study 16 1.5 Outline of the Dissertation 17 Chapter 2 Competing Explanations of US-Cuba Policy in the Post-Cold War Era 19 2.0 Introduction 19 2.1 Domestic Politics 19 2.2 US Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Era 34 2.3 Conclusions 56 Chapter 3 Decision Making Models, Theories and Frameworks 58 3.0 Introduction 58 3.1 Foreign Policy: Decision Making Models and Theories 59 3.2 Rational Model 64 3.3 Policy Sciences: Decision Making Models and Frameworks 66 3.4 Conclusions 93 Chapter 4 The Multiple Streams Framework 96 4.0 Introduction 96 4.1 Agendas 98 4.2 Participants 99 4.3 Processes 104 4.4 The Three Streams: Problem, Politics, and Policy 108 4.5 Policy Windows, Coupling, and Policy Entrepreneurs 118 4.6 Conclusions 126 v Chapter 5 Modifications to the Multiple Streams Framework and the Generation and Testing of Hypotheses 128 5.0 Introduction 128 5.1 Two-Level Theories 129 5.2 Modifications to the Multiple Streams Framework and the Generation of Testable Hypotheses 137 Hypothesis 1: Entrepreneurial Characteristics 139 Hypothesis 2: Coupling Strategies 140 5.3 Methodology 157 5.4 Conclusions 184 Chapter 6 Data Analysis: Participants' Assessments of Policy Entrepreneurs in the Policy Process 185 6.0 Introduction 185 6.1 Definition of a Policy Entrepreneur 186 6.2 What Motivates a Policy Entrepreneur 187 6.3 Presence and Actions of a Policy Entrepreneur 189 6.4 Hypothesis 1: Success and Entrepreneurial Characteristics 191 6.5 Hypothesis 2: Success and Coupling Strategies 203 6.6 Conclusion 218 Chapter 7 Data Analysis: Participants' Involvement in Influencing US-Cuba Policy 225 7.0 Introduction 225 7.1 Involvement and Impact on Policy 226 7.2 Definition of a Policy Entrepreneur 226 7.3 What Motivates a Policy Entrepreneur 227 7.4 Hypothesis 1: Success and Entrepreneurial Characteristics 229 7.5 Hypothesis 2: Success and Coupling Strategies 238 7.6 Conclusion 249 Chapter 8 Data Analysis: An Assessment of Individuals Identified as Key Figures in Influencing US-Cuba Policy 254 8.0 Introduction 254 8.1 Definition of a Policy Entrepreneur 256 8.2 Aggregate Results 257 8.3 Individuals Identified as Successful 260 8.4 Individuals Identified as Unsuccessful 262 8.5 Conclusions 265 VI Chapter 9 Synthesis and Conclusions 272 9.0 Introduction 272 9.1 Findings 273 9.2 Contribution of Study 276 9.3 Limitations of the Study 277 9.4 Future Research 279 Appendix A: Chronology of Key Legislative Events in US-Cuba Policy, 1989-2006 284 Appendix B: Dependent and Independent Variables—Hypothesis 1 294 Appendix C: Dependent and Independent Variables—Hypothesis 2 295 Appendix D: Bivariate Correlations 297 Appendix E: Model Utility and Predictors 301 Appendix F: Ranking of Successful Policy Entrepreneurs 305 Appendix G: Ranking of Unsuccessful Policy Entrepreneurs 307 Appendix H: Survey Instrument 309 Bibliography 355 VII List of Tables Table 6.1 Hypothesis 1—Bivariate Correlations 193 Table 6.2 Hypothesis 1—Model Summary and ANOVA 194 Table 6.3 Hypothesis 1—Coefficients 195 Table 6.4 Hypothesis 1—Partial Correlations 196 Table 6.5 Hypothesis 1—Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals 201 Table 6.6 Hypothesis 2—Bivariate Correlations 206 Table 6.7 Hypothesis 2—Model Summary and ANOVA 207 Table 6.8 Hypothesis 2—Coefficients 208 Table 6.9 Hypothesis 2—Partial Correlations 209 Table 6.10 Hypothesis 2—Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals 215 Table 7.1 Hypothesis 1—Bivariate Correlations 231 Table 7.2 Hypothesis 1—Model Summary and ANOVA 232 Table 7.3 Hypothesis 1—Coefficients 233 Table 7.4 Hypothesis 1—Partial Correlations 234 Table 7.5