MAKING MEANING AND MAKING MONSTERS: DEMOCRACIES, PERSONALIST REGIMES AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government by Madison V Schramm, M.A. Washington, D.C. July 25, 2019 Copyright 2019 by Madison V Schramm All Rights Reserved ii MAKING MEANING AND MAKING MONSTERS: DEMOCRACIES, PERSONALIST REGIMES AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT Madison V Schramm, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Matthew Kroenig, Ph.D. ABSTRACT It is well established that while democracies don’t fight other democracies, they frequently engage in conflict with autocratic regimes. This project demonstrates that democracies are particularly prone to engaging in conflict with countries ruled by personalist dictators, as opposed to autocracies with some form of collective leadership. I argue that this pattern cannot be explained only with reference to the autocracies themselves, but instead must be understood as stemming from psychological biases and the political and strategic culture of democratic elites. Identity, psychology, and culture work to exacerbate the (perceived) threat personalist regimes pose to democracies. Importantly, these dynamics can manifest when the autocratic regime in question is deeply institutionalized but perceived as being ruled by a strongman figure. I explore these issues using statistical analysis, archival research, and survey experiments in multiple countries. iii Acknowledgements I am indebted to my incredible mentors, colleagues, and friends whose support and guidance made this project possible. I started at Georgetown with an exceptional group of students—Sungmin Cho, Miriam Krieger, Shannon Souma, Loriana Crasnic, Dani Nedal, Silvana Flinn Niazi, Laura Bures, Paula Ganga, Karin Kitchens, Anjali Dayal, Diane Zovighian, Alexandra Stark, and Chris Schorr. From problem sets to barbecues, I could not have asked for a more wonderful group of people to spend the past seven years with. The department of government faculty and staff has always gone above and beyond to support my research and provide sage advice—especially Marc Howard Daniel Byman, Hans Noel, Andrew Bennett, Robert Leiber, Desha Girod, Daniel Nexon, George Shambaugh, Diane Kapiszewski and Charles King. I want to thank Paula Evans, in particular, who spent hours providing words of encouragement during (more than one) moment of crisis. She is the unsung hero of the PhD program. I spent my fourth year as a visiting researcher at the Political Violence FieldLab at Yale and had the opportunity to meet Frances McCall Rosenbluth who was, and continues to be, a generous mentor, encouraging my diverse research interests. While in New Haven, Jason Lyall, Keren Yarhi-Milo, Sule Yaylaci, and Prakhar Sharma provided me with endless guidance as I designed my survey experiments. I benefitted, in particular, from the friendship of Prakhar and Sule, who were always available to brainstorm and rigorously assess the local pizza scene. That year, I travelled to United Kingdom, and was only able to conduct my survey experiments because of the considerable support from Tereza Capelos, Nicholas Wheeler, and the faculty at the Department of Politics Science and International Studies at the University of Birmingham. Daniel Rio Tinto, Shervin DehBozorgi and Erika Pärn, are iv wonderful friends who put me up, and put up with me, even as I tested their hospitality through my countless trips to town. I spent a year as a visiting researcher at Boston University, a position that I was able to obtain with the encouragement and support of Jennifer Erickson. While there, I benefitted from the insights of Joshua Kertzer and met incredible scholars and friends like Sara Bjerg Moller, Sara Plana, Meg Guliford, Alexandra Evans, Ketian Zhang, and members of the Women in International Politics and Security. The archivists at the George HW Bush Presidential library, the National Archives at Kew, the National Archives at College Park, the Cadbury Research Library at the University of Birmingham, and the Dwight Eisenhower Presidential Library were all endlessly patient in helping me navigate the materials and it is because of them that I was able make then most of my time at each site. Throughout my seven years at Georgetown, I had the opportunity to participate in Bridging the Gap’s New Era in Foreign Policy Program, the Summer Workshop on the Analysis of Military Operations, the RAND Student Summer Associate Program, the Clements Center Summer Program on History and Statecraft, the International Studies Association Junior Scholars Symposium, and Yale Brady-Johnson ISS research workshop. These programs challenged how I approached research and taught me critical skills and, through them, I had the opportunity to learn from brilliant scholars and practitioners like James Goldgeier, Naazneen Barma, Alexandre Debs, Richard Betts, Stephen Biddle, Celeste Ward, William Inboden, Betty Hanson, and Cliff Morgan. I would not have been able to conduct seminal parts of the project without generous funding from the Department of Government at Georgetown, the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Georgetown, the Eisenhower Foundation, the Smith Richardson World Politics and Statecraft Fellowship, and the Cosmos Fellowship. I have to especially thank Maria Snyder, Georgetown’s Director of External Fellowships, who has advised and supported me through countless grant and fellowship applications. v There are a lot of questions I didn’t think to ask when I was putting together my dissertation committee. By dumb luck, I managed to work with David Edelstein, Kathleen McNamara, and Matthew Kroenig, three phenomenal scholars and wonderful people. I have been a student of David Edelstein’s since I took his International Security seminar in 2015. David’s critical feedback and supportive, thoughtful guidance pushed me on central aspects of the project. He always set high standards for me, and I have learned more than I thought possible from him. Kathleen McNamara gave me the intellectual tools and opportunity to develop the first iteration of this project in her 2012 international relations seminar. Her incredible research helped me navigate my own puzzle, and sets the gold standard for scholarship on ideas and international politics. Her guidance and unending enthusiasm gave me the confidence to see the project through. Matthew Kroenig has provided me with immeasurable support from the day I entered the program. He took a risk coauthoring with a junior scholar, encouraged my research ideas, and provided candid advice on everything from coursework to the job market. I am incredibly thankful his mentorship and intellectual support over the past seven years. My husband, partner, and colleague Dani K. Nedal, has been with me every step of the way. He makes sure I remember to sleep; cooks me (homemade!) chicken soup when I am too sick to work; comments on all my half-baked working papers; understands the importance of doctoral dog(s); and makes me laugh every day. And all of this while completing his own PhD. He is an incredible human being, and the best decision I ever made was marrying him. This dissertation is for my Dad, Major Alexander David Schramm. From my earliest memories, my father has been an ardent (and outspoken) beacon of love and support. Every time I published a small piece, or had some kernel of success, my father was the vi first to call to congratulate me and tell me he was proud. Whenever I was depleted by the rejection of academia, he was there to remind me that he knew not only could I succeed, but I would. He instilled in me the kind of blind confidence it takes to embark on the path to a PhD. When I lost him to cancer in 2017, I wasn’t sure I wanted to continue in the program. However, thirty years of his dogged love and support gave me the strength to finish. Anything I am, or will ever be, I owe to my angel father. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ..........................................................................................................................1 Chapter I: The Psychological and Sociological Sources of Threat Perception ...................7 Introduction .......................................................................................................7 Democracy and Conflict ...................................................................................9 Cognitive Processes ........................................................................................13 Social Identity of Democratic Leaders ...........................................................21 Research Design..............................................................................................34 Chapter II: Democratic-Personalist Conflict Trends .........................................................40 Introduction .....................................................................................................40 Methodology and Data ................................................................................... 42 Analysis...........................................................................................................47 Robustness Tests .............................................................................................60 Conclusion ......................................................................................................71 Chapter III: Three Survey Experiments on the Vividness Effect and