ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: ONE YEAR TO GO – 10/29/03 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 9 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 2, 2003

With Bush Weaker on Issues, The Economy Looms Large

A year before the 2004 presidential election, George W. Bush is displaying significant weaknesses in his political and personal ratings. But the Democrats who seek to replace him continue to labor in his shadow – and the economy looms large over it all.

Bush’s ratings on a range of issues – from to taxes to health care and beyond – are at or near new lows. On dealing with Iraq, he’s dived from 75 percent approval in late April to 47 percent now; for the first time a bare majority, 51 percent, disapproves. Fewer than one in 10 say he’s made the nation more prosperous. And in a result that can pack a punch, 58 percent, a new high, say he doesn’t understand their problems.

But Bush still tops his Democratic rivals in head-to-head match-ups, by margins ranging from nine to 18 points. Even most Democrats don’t know much about the leading challengers’ personal qualities or positions on the issues. And their current preferences are exceedingly weak; three-quarters of Democrats are still shopping for a nominee.

The next presidential Election Day, Nov. 2, 2004, is a year to the date from the release of this ABC News/Washington Post survey.

80% Bush's Handling of the Situation in Iraq ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 70%

Approve 60%

50%

Disapprove 40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 4/30/03 6/22/03 7/10/03 8/11/03 8/24/03 9/7/03 9/13/03 9/29/03 10/13/03 10/29/03

ECONOMY – The importance of the economy in the election can hardly be overstated. It’s the most-cited issue in importance to vote choices, especially among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. The key question, given the strong third-quarter GDP numbers, is whether the economy recovers in a way that’s felt on Main Street, and soon enough to boost Bush’s weak ratings for dealing with it.

The big jump in GDP is potentially huge for Bush, and for incumbents more generally. But it can take years for recovery, particularly a “jobless recovery,” to make itself broadly felt; people tend to see the economy in terms of jobs and income, not GDP. Political ill will from the 1990-91 recession lingered through 1994, damaging not only George Bush in 1992 but also and his fellow Democrats two years later.

Today 45 percent of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling the economy; 53 percent disapprove. And the public by a wide margin, 62-35 percent, continues to rate the economy as a more pressing problem than .

Just 22 percent say their personal finances have improved since Bush took office – precisely what it was for his father in August 1992, shortly before he lost re-election under the weight of economic discontent. That compares, unfavorably, to highs of 42 percent under and 34 percent under Clinton.

60% Economic Expectations ABC News/Washington Post polls

50% 50% Getting Better Getting Worse Staying the Same

40% 37% 38%

32% 31% 30%

20%

12%

10%

0% Now Nov. 1991

HOW BAD? – Still, while economic discontent is real, it’s not remotely as severe as it was at this point before the 1992 election. Today two-thirds say the economy’s in bad shape; it was 88 percent in November 1991. Today 31 percent say the economy’s getting worse, while 32 percent say it’s getting better; but at this time in 1991, 50 percent said it was still worsening, and just 12 percent saw improvement.

A bad economy fuels political discontent. Most people, 57 percent, are now dissatisfied or even angry with the federal government, the most since 1997. But again, it was much higher – 80 percent – amid the deeper economic straits of 1992. (The number who are “angry” is now 15 percent, up from single digits the last few years. The peak was 24 percent in April 1992.)

Discontent is an equal-opportunity emotion; Bush’s ratings have suffered, but so has Congress’. Just 40 percent now approve of how Congress is doing its work, down from 57 percent in late April and the lowest since 1997.

IRAQ – A stronger economy would be tonic for Bush, especially given some second- guessing on the war in Iraq. Most Americans, 54 percent, say the war was worth fighting – the same as in early September, but down from 70 percent in late April. Fifty-eight percent are determined to stick with the occupation until civil order is restored, despite the casualties; but that’s down from 72 percent in July.

Sixty-two percent, a new high, say the level of U.S. casualties is unacceptable (54 percent of men, and 70 percent of women). Concern about getting bogged down is broad and steady; 53 percent remain “very” concerned about it, more than double what it was in April. And the cost is a concern: More than six in 10 oppose the $87 billion in additional U.S. aid for Iraq; this has been steady since Bush brought it up.

100%

Views of U.S. Casualties in Iraq 90% ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 80%

70% Unacceptable

60%

50%

40%

Acceptable 30%

20%

10%

0% 3/27/03 4/3/03 4/9/03 6/22/03 7/10/03 8/11/03 9/7/03 9/13/03 10/13/03 10/29/03

Sixty-one percent of Americans do accept Bush’s argument that the U.S. presence in Iraq is part of the war on terrorism – again, the same as in early September, but well down from 77 percent in April.

As has been the case, there is strong partisanship in views on Iraq. Eighty-one percent of Republicans and 71 percent of conservatives say the war was worth fighting; that falls to 48 percent of independents and 54 percent of moderates, and further to 30 percent of Democrats and liberals alike. There’s a racial split as well; whites, by 61-37 percent, say the war was worth fighting. Nonwhites, by 70-29 percent, say it wasn’t.

100%

Stay in Iraq or Withdraw? 90% ABC News/Washington Post polls

80% Stay 72% 69% 70% 65% 60% 58%

50%

40% 38% 32% Withdraw 30% 26% 27% 20%

10%

0% 7/10/03 8/24/03 9/13/03 10/29/03

TERRORISM – More than anything, Bush’s popularity since Sept. 11, 2001, has relied on his response to terrorism, and it remains his best area – 63 percent approve. But that’s a new low, down from 79 percent in April and from a high of 92 percent just after 9/11.

Similarly, 62 percent of Americans say the war on terrorism is going well – most, but also down to a new low. It was 83 percent in April.

ISSUES/QUALITIES – Bush’s approval ratings on other issues are weaker, and also well off their highs. Sixty-one percent disapprove of his work on the budget deficit; 63 percent disapprove on health insurance, a new high; 53 percent disapprove on taxes, a new high.

More disapprove than approve of how he’s handled prescription drug benefits and Social Security. He gets 55 percent approval on education, long a domestic strong point for Bush, but that’s a career low. His overall approval rating is 56 percent; it was 53 percent earlier this month, but 68 percent as recently as June.

In terms of personal qualities, the number of people who think Bush understands the problems of average Americans has slid from 61 percent in January 2002 (part of his post-9/11 boost) to 40 percent today, with a corresponding 21-point jump in the number who say he doesn’t get it. Does Bush Understand the Problems 100% of People Like You? 90% ABC News/Washington Post polls 80%

70%

60% Yes 50%

40%

No 30%

20%

10%

0%

0 0 1 /99 /00 0 0 0 /03 2/99 6 7/ 2/ 2/ /14/99 9/ 31/99 /15 16/00 2/ 2 11/00 4/ 11/00 /23/00 2 30/01 /27/02 15/02 15/02 30 13/03 29/03 3 1/ 2/ 3/ 6/ 7 4/ 7/ 1 7/ 4/ 9/ 10/ 12 12/ 10/

Only majorities of Republicans and conservatives now think Bush understands their concerns. Eighty-four percent of Democrats, 65 percent of independents and even 29 percent of Republicans say he doesn’t. That’s a clear trouble sign: Empathy is a crucial quality in a political leader, especially when the going gets rough. It was a fatal weakness for Bush’s father, and a source of strength for Clinton.

Bush’s ratings for leadership and honesty are higher, but down as well. Sixty-two percent call him a strong leader; the peak during his presidency was 75 percent in 2002. Fifty- nine percent call him honest and trustworthy; the peak was 71 percent, also in 2002.

MATCH-UPS – These views describe a weakened president, but not a weak one. If the 2004 election were today, 48 percent of registered voters say they’d support Bush, 47 percent the Democratic nominee.

But Bush will run against an actual Democrat, not a generic one, and here he fares better. He gets between 51 and 56 percent support among registered voters in head-to-head match-ups against any of five leading contenders for the Democratic nomination; they get anywhere from 38 to 43 percent support. (The range is Bush vs Richard Gephardt, 51-42 percent, and , 52-43 percent; to Bush vs Joseph Lieberman, 56-38 percent.)

There’s a traditional gender gap in all these match-ups, with Bush doing better with men (who are less apt to be Democrats). Independents, the classic swing voter group, favor the generic Democrat, but some of them move back to Bush in head-to-heads. Whites favor Bush by 55-40 percent; nonwhites prefer the Democrat by a lopsided 77-19 percent.

Again, views of the economy are a powerful factor. Bush is supported in the generic contest by about eight in 10 of the people who think the economy’s in good shape, expect it to get better, or say their finances have improved under Bush. Among those who say the opposite, six in 10 or more back the Democrat.

As noted, the economy is the top issue voters cite in determining their 2004 election preferences; 89 percent call it very important, including 16 percent who say it’s one of their single most important concerns. It’s followed at some distance by a mash of next- tier issues – education (73 percent call it very important), Iraq (69 percent), terrorism (68 percent) and health insurance (68 percent again).

DEMS – The race for the Democratic nomination is itself a mash: The candidates are not well known, not well differentiated and not firmly supported. Just four percentage points separate the top tier: Among registered leaned Democrats, 17 percent support , 14 percent Gephardt and Wesley Clark alike, 13 percent Lieberman. Kerry’s slipped into single digits, joining , , and .

Dean does best among liberal Democrats, who predominate in primary turnout, while Gephardt’s best group is moderates. Clark does a good deal better among men (17 percent support) than women (seven percent).

Still, among people who have a preference, a paltry 23 percent say they’ll definitely vote for that candidate. Seventy-six percent say instead that they might change their minds – and 53 percent go so far as to say there’s a good chance of it.

One reason: Rampant unfamiliarity. Anywhere from 62 to 82 percent of leaned Democrats say they know little about the personal qualities, such as experience and leadership, of any of the top Democrats. And anywhere from 65 to 83 percent say they know little about any of these candidates’ positions on specific issues. While most of them have been at it for a good while, they simply haven’t broken through.

There’s clearly one top issue for leaned Democrats; given a choice of six, the economy finishes far and away their No. 1 concern in choosing a nominee, cited by 54 percent; health care and education are far distant, with others – Iraq, terrorism, the environment – in single digits.

There’s more diversity on personal qualities. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats are looking most for a strong leader, 20 percent for someone who understands their problems, 15 percent for new ideas, 14 percent for the right experience. Other attributes sell less well – not being a typical politician, being a loyal Democrat, or having the best chance to win in November.

100% Will You Definitely Vote For Your Candidate? Among Leaned Democrats With a Vote Choice 90% ABC News/Washington Post poll

80% 76%

70% Unlikely to change 60% 23%

50%

40%

30% Good chance 23% 53% 20%

10%

0% Definitely vote for candidate Chance will change mind

Perhaps the best result for the Democratic contenders is that most Democrats, 68 percent, say they’re satisfied with the choice of candidates they have – even if most haven’t firmly made one yet.

MIDDLE GROUND – Lastly, this poll finds majority interest in more of a middle- ground approach to politics by Bush and the Democrats alike – however unlikely that may be in an election year. Anywhere from 54 to 58 percent of Americans say that on the issues of tax cuts, the budget deficit and the war in Iraq, leaders of the Democratic Party have been too unwilling to compromise with Bush. And on the same issues, six in 10 or more say Bush has been too unwilling to compromise with the Democrats.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 26-29, 2003, among a random national sample of 1,207 adults, including an oversample of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents for a total of 642. The results have a three-point error margin for the full sample, and four points for the leaned Democrats. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Analysis by Gary Langer.

ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet at:

Media contacts: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-6190.

Results follow.

*= less than 0.5 percent

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

------Approve------Disapprove------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opin. 10/29/03 56 30 26 42 29 13 2 10/13/03 53 33 20 43 29 13 4 9/30/03 54 34 20 44 29 15 2 9/13/03 58 35 23 40 27 14 2 9/7/03 56 34 22 41 28 13 4 8/11/03 59 37 22 37 23 14 4 7/10/03 59 35 24 38 25 13 3 6/22/03 68 45 23 29 18 11 4 4/30/03 71 50 22 26 9 17 3 4/16/03 74 52 22 23 14 9 3 4/9/03 77 58 19 20 14 6 4 4/3/03 71 54 16 25 19 7 4 3/23/03 68 NA NA 27 NA NA 4 3/20/03 67 NA NA 28 NA NA 5 3/2/03 62 38 23 35 22 13 4 2/23/03 60 NA NA 34 NA NA 6 2/9/03 64 42 21 34 20 14 3 2/1/03 62 41 21 34 22 13 4 1/28/03 62 43 19 36 23 13 2 1/27/03 59 39 21 37 22 15 4 1/20/03 59 36 23 38 22 16 2 12/15/02 66 37 28 32 20 12 2 11/4/02 LV 67 45 23 31 20 12 1 11/3/02 LV 67 45 22 32 20 12 1 11/2/02 LV 67 47 20 32 23 9 1 10/27/02 All 67 39 28 29 16 13 4 10/27/02 LV 68 47 21 30 16 14 3 9/26/02 67 42 25 30 18 12 3 9/8/02 71 42 28 27 15 12 3 7/28/02 69 39 31 28 14 14 3 7/15/02 72 42 31 25 13 12 2 6/17/02 74 42 32 22 13 9 4 6/9/02 77 41 36 20 11 9 3 5/19/02 76 48 28 22 13 8 3 4/21/02 78 47 31 20 10 9 2 3/28/02 79 49 30 18 10 8 3 3/10/02 82 52 30 16 7 9 2 1/27/02 83 56 27 14 7 7 3 12/19/01 86 64 22 12 6 6 2 11/27/01 89 69 21 9 5 4 1 11/6/01 89 65 24 9 4 5 2 10/9/01 92 76 16 6 3 3 1 9/27/01 90 70 20 6 3 3 4 9/13/01 86 63 23 12 6 5 2 9/9/01 55 26 29 41 22 20 3 8/12/01 61 28 33 31 17 14 8 7/30/01 59 28 30 38 22 17 3 6/3/01 55 27 28 40 22 18 6 4/22/01 63 33 30 32 16 16 5 3/25/01 58 NA NA 33 NA NA 8 2/25/01 55 NA NA 23 NA NA 22

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling (ITEM)?

10/29/03 - Summary Table

Approve Disapprove No op. a. The economy 45 53 2 b. The situation in Iraq 47 51 2 c. Education 55 38 7 d. Social Security 40 46 14 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly 36 46 18 f. Foreign affairs 49 47 4 g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 28 63 9 h. Taxes 41 53 6 i. The federal budget deficit 32 61 7 j. The US campaign against terrorism 63 35 2 k. International affairs 50 43 7

Trend where available: a. The economy

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 45 53 2 10/13/03 45 52 2 9/13/03 42 56 3 9/7/03 44 51 5 8/11/03 45 51 5 7/10/03 47 49 4 4/30/03 52 45 3 2/9/03 47 49 4 2/1/03 44 52 4 1/28/03 46 49 4 1/27/03 47 47 5 1/20/03 43 53 4 1/5/03 50 43 7 12/15/02 50 46 4 11/4/02 LV 53 45 2 11/3/02 LV 52 46 2 11/2/02 LV 55 43 2 10/27/02 51 43 6 10/27/02 LV 53 44 3 9/26/02 51 47 3 9/8/02 57 40 4 7/28/02 57 39 4 7/15/02 58 38 3 4/21/02 64 33 3 1/27/02 62 34 4 12/19/01 67 27 6 11/6/01 72 23 5 9/9/01 48 48 4 7/30/01 52 45 3 6/3/01 53 41 6 4/22/01 55 38 7 3/25/01 50 42 8 b. The situation in Iraq

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 47 51 2 10/13/03 51 47 2 9/29/03 50 47 3 9/13/03 52 46 2 9/7/03 49 47 4 8/24/03 56 37 7 8/11/03 56 41 3 7/10/03 58 41 2 6/22/03 67 30 2 4/30/03 75 22 2

Compare to: The situation with Iraq and 3/27/03 69 26 5 3/23/03 71 26 3 3/20/03 65 29 5 3/17/03 64 29 7 3/9/03 55 38 8 2/23/03 55 39 6 2/9/03 61 37 2 2/5/03 61 32 7 2/1/03 61 35 3 1/28/03 58 38 4 1/27/03 57 40 3 1/20/03 50 46 4 12/15/02 58 37 5 11/4/02 LV 56 40 4 11/3/02 LV 57 40 4 11/2/02 LV 56 41 3 10/27/02 57 38 5 9/26/02 58 39 3 9/14/02 65 31 4 8/29/02 52 36 12 c. Education

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 55 38 7 9/13/03 56 39 6 4/30/03 59 34 7 12/15/02 62 30 8 9/26/02 61 32 7 7/15/02 62 31 6 1/27/02 71 21 8 9/9/01 61 32 7 7/30/01 63 31 5 6/3/01 57 35 8 4/22/01 60 28 12 d. Social Security

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 40 46 14 9/13/03 43 46 11 4/30/03 49 38 13 12/15/02 49 38 13 9/26/02 42 43 15 7/15/02 54 35 11 1/27/02 54 28 18 9/9/01 41 50 9 7/30/01 46 48 6 6/3/01 46 40 14 e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 36 46 18 10/13/03 34 43 22 9/13/03 35 54 11 4/30/03 44 40 17 2/1/03 46 35 19 f. No trend. g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 28 63 9 10/13/03 30 60 10 9/13/03 32 61 7 4/30/03 34 57 9 1/28/03 40 47 13 1/20/03 36 51 13 12/15/02 33 58 9 h. Taxes

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 41 53 6 9/13/03 48 48 4 8/11/03 49 46 5 4/30/03 50 46 4 2/1/03 51 43 7 1/20/03 50 45 5 12/15/02 51 44 5

i. The federal budget deficit

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 32 61 7

Compare to: The federal budget 9/13/03 38 57 4 8/11/03 41 50 9 4/30/03 43 50 6 2/9/03 45 45 10 2/1/03 47 46 8 1/20/03 43 47 10 7/15/02 50 42 8 1/27/02 59 30 12 9/9/01 46 48 6 7/30/01 53 42 5

j. The US campaign against terrorism

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 63 35 2 10/13/03 66 30 4 9/13/03 70 27 3 9/7/03 67 28 5 4/30/03 79 19 2 2/9/03 74 23 4 2/1/03 75 21 3 1/27/03 72 26 2 1/20/03 71 25 4 12/15/02 79 20 1 11/4/02 LV 76 22 1 11/3/02 LV 77 22 3 11/2/02 LV 78 21 2 10/27/02 All 74 23 4 10/27/02 LV 78 20 2 9/26/02 70 28 2 9/8/02 74 24 2 7/28/02 81 17 2 7/15/02 83 15 2 5/19/02* 79 19 3 4/21/02* 81 18 2 3/10/02* 88 10 2 1/27/02 88 10 2 12/19/01* 89 9 2 10/15/01* 92 5 3 *Asked very/somewhat follow-up k. International affairs

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 50 43 7 9/13/03 53 43 4 7/15/02 67 28 5 4/21/02 71 25 4 6/3/01 58 33 9 4/22/01 62 31 7 3/25/01 56 31 13

3. What do you think is a bigger problem facing the nation right now: (terrorism) or (the economy)?

Terrorism Economy No opin. 10/29/03 35 62 3 9/13/03 37 61 2 9/7/03 34 63 3 9/26/02 47 51 3 9/8/02 46 51 3 1/27/02 43 54 3 12/16/01 49 47 4

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is doing its job?

Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/29/03 40 52 9 4/30/03 57 37 6 9/26/02 51 43 6 7/15/02 57 36 7 2/21/02 57 39 4 1/27/02 58 35 7 12/19/01 59 34 7 9/9/01 45 48 7 7/30/01 48 48 4 4/22/01 58 33 8 10/31/99 42 53 6 9/2/99 46 47 7 6/6/99 48 46 6 3/14/99 44 49 7 2/14/99 46 50 4 12/20/98 44 51 5 12/19/98 45 50 5 12/13/98 49 46 5 11/7/98 41 55 4 11/1/98 49 47 5 11/1/98 LV 47 51 2 10/25/98 45 44 11 10/25/98 LV 45 48 7 10/18/98 46 45 8 10/18/98 LV 45 49 5 9/28/98 52 44 4 9/28/98 LV 52 46 2 8/21/98 55 39 6 7/12/98 46 44 11 5/12/98 45 45 9 4/4/98 47 45 8 1/31/98 55 35 10 1/30/98 55 35 10 1/25/98 56 37 8 1/24/98 55 38 7 1/19/98 47 49 5 10/13/97 36 57 7 8/27/97 39 54 7 7/8/97 40 53 6 4/24/97 40 53 7 3/9/97 35 60 5 8/5/96 42 52 7 6/30/96 35 58 7 5/22/96 35 60 5 3/10/96 30 64 6 1/7/96 31 65 5 11/19/95 27 68 5 10/1/95 32 65 3 7/17/95 34 63 3 3/19/95 39 56 5 1/29/95 42 52 6 10/31/94 21 72 8 10/23/94 18 78 4 9/11/94 24 70 5 6/26/94 34 61 5 3/27/94 35 62 3 2/27/94 32 64 4 1/23/94 29 60 11 11/14/93 28 66 6 8/8/93 33 64 3 4/26/93 30 69 2 1/17/93 29 66 6 4/9/92 17 78 5 3/18/92 19 76 5 3/8/92 22 73 6 2/2/92 32 64 4 12/15/91 35 59 6 10/21/91 45 50 5 6/2/91 49 46 5 10/14/90 34 63 3 2/4/90 41 55 4 1/16/90 39 55 6 8/21/89 42 53 5 5/23/89 54 44 2 2/14/89 53 44 3 1/23/88* 43 53 4 6/1/87 56 40 4 6/22/85 54 37 9 5/83 33 43 24 6/81 38 40 22 6/79 19 61 20 9/78 29 49 22 6/77 34 42 24 6/75 29 54 17 8/74 48 35 17 *1/23/88 and previous:

5. Do you think the U.S. campaign against terrorism is going very well, fairly well, not too well or not well at all?

------Well------Not well------No NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op. 10/29/03 62 8 54 38 23 14 1 9/7/03 69 12 57 29 19 10 2 4/30/03 83 26 57 16 10 6 1 9/26/02 73 15 58 26 17 9 1 9/8/02 70 10 60 29 21 8 1 7/15/02 75 15 60 24 16 8 1 4/21/02 73 11 63 26 17 9 1 3/10/02 84 21 63 15 10 6 1 1/27/02 88 32 56 11 8 4 1

6. How closely are you following the 2004 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. 10/29/03 15 39 30 15 0 9/13/03 16 40 27 17 *

Compare to: How closely are you following the 2000 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

Very Somewhat Not too Not closely No closely closely closely at all opin. Likely Voters: 11/6/00 54 38 6 2 * 11/5/00 53 38 6 2 * 11/4/00 52 39 7 2 * 11/3/00 51 40 6 3 * 11/2/00 48 42 7 3 * 11/1/00 48 43 7 2 * 10/31/00 46 44 7 2 * 10/30/00 47 44 7 2 * 10/29/00 47 43 7 3 * 10/28/00 47 42 7 3 * 10/27/00 48 41 7 4 * 10/26/00 47 42 8 3 * 10/25/00 47 42 8 3 0 10/24/00 44 43 10 3 0 10/23/00 44 45 8 3 0 10/22/00 44 44 9 3 0 10/21/00 46 41 9 4 * 10/20/00 46 40 11 4 * 10/19/00 44 41 10 4 * 10/18/00 42 45 10 3 * 10/17/00 40 46 10 3 * Registered Voters: 10/15/00 33 44 15 8 * 10/9/00 30 45 16 9 * 10/1/00 27 48 17 8 * 9/6/00 26 48 17 9 * 8/20/00 28 46 16 10 1 8/10/00 29 43 18 11 * Population: 8/6/00 17 36 22 25 * 7/29/00 16 35 25 24 * 7/23/00 14 36 25 25 * 6/11/00 13 36 26 25 0 4/2/00 17 36 24 23 0 3/11/00 21 40 21 17 0 2/27/00 24 46 20 10 * 2/6/00 19 48 21 13 0 1/16/00 11 39 26 24 * 12/15/99 12 33 31 24 * 10/31/99 16 45 25 13 *

7. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2004 presidential election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

Don’t think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. 10/29/03 70 12 11 6 1 0

Compare to: I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

Don't think Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote No to vote vote 50/50 50/50 (vol.) opin. Registered Voters: 10/15/00 82 10 6 2 1 * 10/9/00 81 10 6 2 * * 10/1/00 81 10 5 3 1 * 9/6/00 78 12 5 3 1 * 8/20/00 78 13 6 3 1 0 8/10/00 79 12 6 1 1 * General Population: 8/6/00 64 12 11 8 5 * 7/29/00 61 15 9 11 3 * 7/23/00 59 17 10 11 4 * 6/11/00 60 13 11 10 4 * 5/10/00 63 15 10 8 4 1 4/2/00 62 14 9 9 5 * 3/11/00 63 14 9 9 4 * 2/27/00 69 12 10 4 5 * 2/6/00 67 12 10 8 3 * 1/16/00 65 14 10 6 4 * 12/15/99 64 13 8 9 6 1 10/31/99 72 11 10 5 3 *

8. If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush, the Republican) or for (the Democratic nominee for president)?

Net Leaned Vote:

Democratic Other Neither Would No Bush nominee (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 10/29/03 All 48 47 1 1 1 2 RV 48 47 1 1 1 2 10/13/03 All 45 48 1 2 1 3 RV 45 49 1 2 1 3 9/13/03 49 44 1 2 2 2 8/11/03 48 40 2 1 1 7 4/30/03 53 40 * 2 1 3

9. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Wesley Clark, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:

Other Neither Would No Bush Clark (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 10/29/03 All 51 40 1 3 1 4 RV 52 40 * 4 1 3

10. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Joseph Lieberman, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:

Other Neither Would No Bush Lieberman (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 10/29/03 All 53 40 * 4 1 1 RV 56 38 * 3 1 1 9/13/03 54 40 * 3 2 2 4/30/03 61 34 * 2 1 2

11. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (John Kerry, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:

Other Neither Would No Bush Kerry (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 10/29/03 All 50 44 * 2 1 3 RV 52 43 0 2 1 2 9/13/03 54 39 * 3 2 2 4/30/03 60 34 * 2 1 2

12. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Richard Gephardt, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:

Other Neither Would No Bush Gephardt (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 10/29/03 All 51 42 * 3 1 2 RV 51 42 * 4 1 1 9/13/03 54 39 * 3 2 2 4/30/03 60 35 * 2 1 2

13. How about if the candidates were (George W. Bush, the Republican), and (Howard Dean, the Democrat), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote:

Other Neither Would No Bush Dean (vol.) (vol.) not vote opin. 10/29/03 All 54 39 1 3 1 2 RV 53 39 * 3 1 3 9/13/03 56 36 1 3 2 2

14. For each item I name, please tell me how important it will be in your vote for president next year. Will it be one of the single most important issues, very important, somewhat important or less important than that?

10/29/03 - Summary Table*

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. a. The economy 89 16 73 10 10 * * b. The situation in Iraq 69 8 61 30 24 6 1 c. Education 73 11 62 26 24 2 1 d. Social Security 66 7 59 33 27 6 * e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly 62 7 54 38 28 10 1 f. Foreign affairs 62 5 56 38 33 4 1 g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance 68 14 54 32 25 6 * h. Taxes 63 8 55 37 32 5 * i. The federal budget deficit 59 10 50 38 30 9 2 j. The US campaign against terrorism 68 11 57 31 24 6 1 k. International affairs 53 7 47 45 37 8 1

*Half sample asked items a-f, other half asked g-k.

Trend where available: a. The economy

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 89 16 73 10 10 * * 9/13/03 85 15 70 15 14 1 * b. The situation in Iraq

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 69 8 61 30 24 6 1 9/13/03 71 14 57 29 22 7 * c. Education

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 73 11 62 26 24 2 1 9/13/03 78 12 66 21 19 2 1 d. Social Security

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 66 7 59 33 27 6 * 9/13/03 67 9 58 33 29 4 * e. Prescription drug benefits for the elderly

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 62 7 54 38 28 10 1 9/13/03 63 12 51 36 29 7 1 f. No trend. g. The cost, availability and coverage of health insurance

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 68 14 54 32 25 6 * 9/13/03 74 11 63 25 23 2 1 h. Taxes

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 63 8 55 37 32 5 * 9/13/03 67 7 60 33 29 4 * i. The federal budget deficit

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 59 10 50 38 30 9 2

Compare to: The federal budget

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 9/13/03 77 12 65 23 19 4 1 j. The US campaign against terrorism

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 68 11 57 31 24 6 1 9/13/03 75 12 63 25 22 3 * k. International affairs

------Important------Not as important- No NET 1 of most Very NET Somewhat Less op. 10/29/03 53 7 47 45 37 8 1 9/13/03 60 8 52 40 35 5 *

16. All in all, considering the costs to the versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?

Worth Not worth No fighting fighting opinion 10/29/03 54 44 2 10/13/03 54 44 2 9/13/03 61 37 2 9/7/03 54 42 4 8/24/03 57 37 5 8/11/03 61 35 4 7/10/03 57 40 3 6/22/03 64 33 3 4/30/03 70 27 4

Gulf War: 2/2/92* 66 32 2 7/28/91 67 30 3 6/2/91 70 26 3 3/4/91 86 13 1 *2/2/92 and previous: "the Persian "; 3/4/91: "this war"

17. Again thinking about the goals versus the costs of the war, so far in your opinion has there been an acceptable or unacceptable number of U.S. military casualties in Iraq?

Acceptable Unacceptable No opinion 10/29/03 35 62 3 10/13/03 37 60 3 9/13/03 43 55 2 9/7/03 38 57 5 8/11/03 42 53 5 7/10/03 44 52 3 6/22/03 51 44 5 4/9/03 66 28 6 4/3/03 62 32 5 3/27/03 58 34 9

17a. Earlier this year, Congress approved spending 79 billion dollars to help pay for the war in Iraq and the rebuilding effort there. Bush has now called for spending 87 billion dollars more. Do you support or oppose this additional spending for the war and rebuilding in Iraq?

Support Oppose No opinion 10/29/03 34 64 2 9/29/03 36 62 2 9/13/03 38 61 1

18. How do you feel about the possibility that the United States will get bogged down in a long and costly peacekeeping mission in Iraq - would you say you're very concerned about that, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all?

----Concerned------Not concerned---- Already No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all has (vol.) op. 10/29/03 87 53 34 13 9 4 * * 9/13/03 85 53 32 15 9 5 * * 8/24/03 76 41 35 23 13 9 1 1 7/10/03 80 43 37 19 11 8 1 1 6/22/03 72 32 41 26 16 10 * 1 4/30/03 72 34 39 27 19 9 NA * 4/16/03 73 31 42 26 19 7 NA 1 4/9/03 62 24 39 35 24 11 NA 3

19. Do you think (the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties); or do you think (the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there)?

Keep forces Withdraw forces No opinion 10/29/03 58 38 3 9/13/03 65 32 3 8/24/03 69 27 4 7/10/03 72 26 2

20. Do you think the U.S. military presence in Iraq is (part of the war on terrorism), or (separate from the war on terrorism)?

Part Separate No opinion 10/29/03 61 37 2

Compare to: Do you think of the war with Iraq as (part of the war against terrorism), or as (separate from the war against terrorism)?

Part Separate No opinion 9/13/03 66 32 2 9/7/03 65 31 4 4/16/03 77 22 1

21. (IF U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IS PART OF WAR ON TERRORISM) Right now, do you think the U.S. military presence in Iraq is the most important part of the war on terrorism, an important part but not the most important, or less important than that?

Most Important but Less No important not most important opinion 10/29/03 23 67 8 2

15. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Bush or not.

10/29/03 - Summary Table

Yes No No opin. a. He understands the problems of people like you 40 58 2 b. He is a strong leader 62 37 1 c. He is honest and trustworthy 59 40 2

Trend: a. He understands the problems of people like you

Yes No No opin. 10/29/03 40 58 2 9/13/03 48 51 1 4/30/03 51 48 1 12/15/02 51 47 2 7/15/02 57 41 2 1/27/02 61 37 2 7/30/01 45 54 2 4/22/01 47 51 2 11/4/00 LV 49 46 5 10/24/00 LV 50 46 3 10/15/00 RV 46 46 7 10/9/00 RV 50 44 6 9/6/00 RV 47 49 4 8/20/00 RV 50 46 5 7/23/00 RV 44 51 5 7/23/00 44 51 5 6/11/00 48 47 5 4/2/00 48 46 6 3/11/00 47 47 6 2/27/00 43 51 6 2/6/00 43 52 5 1/16/00 46 49 6 12/15/99 47 46 7 10/31/99 54 39 7 9/2/99 50 39 11 3/14/99 52 27 21 b. He is a strong leader

Yes No No opin. 10/29/03 62 37 1 9/13/03 66 34 * 4/30/03 74 25 * 12/15/02 75 23 2 7/15/02 75 24 1 7/30/01 55 43 2 4/22/01 53 42 5 10/9/00 RV 62 33 5 9/6/00 RV 65 28 7 8/20/00 RV 65 29 5 8/10/00 RV 67 29 5 7/23/00 RV 61 33 6 7/23/00 62 32 5 6/11/00 65 30 6 4/2/00 68 27 5 3/11/00 63 31 6 2/27/00 62 32 6 2/6/00 65 30 7 1/16/00 65 28 7 12/15/99 67 26 7 10/31/99 77 18 5 9/2/99 70 18 12 3/14/99 68 13 20 c. He is honest and trustworthy

Yes No No opin. 10/29/03 59 40 2 9/13/03 60 39 2 12/15/02 70 26 4 7/15/02 71 26 3 7/30/01 63 34 3 4/22/01 62 32 6 11/5/00 LV 60 33 7 11/4/00 LV 61 33 7 10/24/00 LV 65 30 5 10/15/00 LV 57 34 9 10/15/00 RV 53 35 12 9/6/00 RV 62 30 7 7/23/00 RV 61 30 8 7/23/00 59 31 10 12/15/99 63 28 9 10/31/99 68 22 10 9/2/99 63 23 14 3/14/99 67 12 22

22. On another subject, would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor?

----Excellent/Good------Not so good/Poor----- No NET Excellent Good NET Not so good Poor op. 10/29/03 33 1 32 67 45 23 * 9/13/03 30 2 27 70 45 25 * 8/11/03 32 2 30 68 43 25 * 4/30/03 35 1 34 64 46 19 * 2/9/03 28 1 27 72 49 23 * 1/20/03 25 1 25 74 48 26 1 12/15/02 35 1 33 65 44 21 1 11/4/02 LV 28 1 27 72 55 17 1 11/3/02 LV 27 1 26 72 56 17 1 11/2/02 LV 29 1 28 71 54 17 * 9/26/02 31 2 28 69 50 19 * 7/15/02 39 3 36 61 44 17 1 2/21/02 30 1 29 69 51 18 * 1/27/02 31 1 29 69 50 19 * 9/20/01 38 3 35 60 47 14 2 9/9/01 33 1 32 66 47 19 * 7/30/01 50 3 46 50 39 12 * 4/22/01 50 3 47 50 40 9 * 1/15/01 70 10 59 29 24 6 1 Call for full trend.

23. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse or staying the same?

Better Worse Same No opin. 10/29/03 32 31 37 1 9/13/03 28 31 40 * 8/11/03 32 29 38 1 1/20/03 18 38 43 1 7/28/02 17 44 39 1 7/15/02 20 36 43 2 7/7/02 22 37 41 0 6/9/02 27 29 43 1 5/12/02 35 27 38 0 4/14/02 34 26 40 0 3/17/02 47 20 32 1 2/17/02 29 27 42 2 1/20/02 25 36 39 1 12/9/01 24 37 38 1 11/11/01 16 48 36 1 10/14/01 15 46 39 0 9/16/01 9 44 46 1 8/12/01 16 46 38 0 7/15/01 13 40 46 0 6/17/01 17 45 38 1 5/20/01 13 47 39 0 Call for full trend.

24. Would you say most Americans are better off financially than they were in 2001 when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially?

Better Not as The No off well off same opinion 10/29/03 9 49 41 1 9/13/03 9 52 38 1 4/30/03 10 48 42 1

George H. W. Bush 8/9/92 6 61 31 1 10/21/91 7 48 41 4 3/4/91 7 35 56 2 1/16/89 33 26 38 3

25. Would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you were when Bush became president, not as well off, or in about the same shape as then financially?

Better off Not as well off About the same No opin. 10/29/03 22 27 50 1 9/13/03 21 30 49 * 8/11/03 17 25 58 1

CLINTON 6/11/00 34 14 50 2 7/19/98 30 15 52 3 3/1/98 32 9 57 1 6/23/96 29 22 49 0 2/27/94 12 17 71 *

BUSH* 8/9/92 22 32 45 1 6/7/92 19 32 49 * 3/11/92 20 33 46 1 2/2/92 19 31 49 * 10/21/91 20 27 53 1 3/4/91 19 18 63 1

REAGAN** 1/16/89 42 18 39 1 1/18/87 37 23 40 1 9/8/86 41 20 39 1 *"...in 1989 when Bush became..." ** "...in 1981 when Reagan became..."

26. As you may know, officials now say the federal budget is in deficit. How much responsibility do you think Bush bears for the budget deficit - a great deal, a good amount, just some or hardly any?

-Great/Good Amount- --Some/Hardly Any-- Great Good Just Hardly None No NET deal amount NET some any (vol.) op. 10/29/03 56 29 28 42 31 11 1 1 8/11/03 52 28 24 45 30 15 1 1 1/27/02 41 18 23 55 32 23 2 2 9/9/01* 48 28 20 48 25 23 NA 3 *"for the lower surplus”

30. Which political party today best represents your ideas about how the United States should be governed — (The Democratic Party) or (The Republican Party), or neither of them?

Democratic Republican Neither No opin. 10/29/03 31 36 32 1 8/5/96 35 29 35 2 10/23/86* 32 36 27 5 *Roper

31. Do you think this country should have one or more political parties in addition to the (Democrats) and the (Republicans), or do you think those two are enough?

Should have more Two parties No political parties are enough opin. 10/29/03 47 51 2 10/30/00 LV 53 42 4

32. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) In your view, is the leadership of the Republican Party currently taking the party in the (right direction) or in the (wrong direction)?

Right Wrong Mixed/depends No direction direction (vol.) opinion 10/29/03 74 17 5 4 3/30/94* 58 24 7 11 *Gallup

33. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) In your view, is the leadership of the Democratic Party currently taking the party in the (right direction) or in the (wrong direction)?

Right Wrong Mixed/depends No direction direction (vol.) opinion 10/29/03 57 25 9 9

34. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) How closely does the leadership of the Democratic Party reflect your thinking on the important issues: Very closely, fairly closely, not too closely or not closely at all?

------Closely------Not closely------No NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op. 10/29/03 80 17 63 19 14 4 2

35. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) How closely does the leadership of the Republican Party reflect your thinking on the important issues: Very closely, fairly closely, not too closely or not closely at all?

------Closely------Not closely------No NET Very Fairly NET Not too At all op. 10/29/03 84 20 64 15 12 3 1

36. Has the leadership of the Democratic Party been too willing or not willing enough to compromise with Bush on the issue of (ITEM)?

10/29/03 – Summary Table

Too Not willing About right No willing enough (vol.) opinion a. Tax cuts 30 58 4 7 b. The war in Iraq 34 54 7 5 c. The budget deficit 30 56 4 10

37. Has Bush been too willing or not willing enough to compromise with the leadership of the Democratic Party on the issue of (ITEM)?

10/29/03 – Summary Table

Too Not willing About right No willing enough (vol.) opinion a. Tax cuts 23 62 8 7 b. The war in Iraq 26 60 9 5 c. The budget deficit 22 64 6 8

27. (HALF) I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?

------Positive------Negative------Enthusi- Satis- Dissat- None/ No NET astic fied NET isfied Angry Other opin. 10/29/03 42 2 41 57 42 15 NA * 11/4/02 LV 49 4 45 50 41 9 NA 1 11/3/02 LV 50 5 45 49 40 9 NA 1 11/2/02 LV 51 6 45 49 40 9 NA 1 10/27/02 All 50 4 47 49 42 7 NA 1 10/27/02 LV 53 3 50 47 41 6 NA 1 2/21/02 56 7 49 43 36 7 NA 1 12/15/00 59 4 55 39 34 6 NA 1 2/14/99 52 3 48 47 35 12 NA 1 9/28/98 50 4 46 49 36 12 NA 1 9/28/98 LV 48 4 44 50 37 14 NA 1 1/19/98 46 2 43 53 45 8 1 * 8/27/97 34 2 33 64 52 11 2 1 3/17/96 29 2 27 70 54 16 NA * 1/4/95 29 2 27 69 53 16 * 1 11/6/94 RV 28 2 26 70 49 21 1 1 10/31/94 26 1 25 73 55 18 1 1 10/23/94 28 1 26 71 52 20 * * 10/9/94 25 2 24 72 53 19 2 * 9/11/94 26 2 25 73 53 20 NA * 3/27/94 30 1 29 68 48 20 1 1 2/28/93 33 4 29 66 50 16 * * 7/8/92 23 1 22 76 53 23 * 1 6/7/92 21 1 20 79 58 21 * 1 4/9/92 21 1 20 79 55 24 1 * 3/18/92 22 1 21 77 54 23 1 * 3/11/92 18 1 17 80 60 20 1 1

28. (OTHER HALF) I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about politics and the way the political process works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?

------Positive------Negative------Enthusi- Satis- Dissat- No NET astic fied NET isfied Angry opin. 10/29/03 36 3 34 63 49 14 1

29. Do you think the federal government threatens your own personal rights and freedoms, or not? (IF YES) Is that a major threat or a minor threat to your personal rights and freedoms?

------Yes------NET Major Minor No No opinion 10/29/03 44 18 27 54 1 5/14/95 36 12 24 62 1

38. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) How closely are you following the race for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all?

------Closely------Not closely------No NET Very Smwt. NET Not too At all opin. 10/29/03 53 13 40 47 29 18 0 9/13/03 63 19 44 37 24 13 0 4/30/03 37 8 29 63 33 30 0

39. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the 2004 presidential primary or caucus in your state. Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

Abs. Prob. Chances Less than Will not No primary/ No certain vote 50-50 50-50 vote (vol.) caucus (vol.) op. 10/29/03 55 19 15 8 4 * 0 9/13/03 64 15 14 5 NA 1 1

998 (and 999). (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Joseph Lieberman, Richard Gephardt, John Kerry, John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, or Wesley Clark), for whom would you vote?

Net Leaned Vote: Wldn't No Lieb. Gep. Ker. Ed. Dean Clark Shar. Braun Kuc. Oth. None vote op. 10/29/03 All 13 13 8 5 16 12 7 5 2 1 7 2 11 RV 13 14 8 5 17 14 7 3 2 * 5 1 10 10/13/03 All 10 13 11 3 17 12 4 5 2 * 8 1 15 RV 10 14 11 2 17 14 3 4 2 * 9 1 13 9/13/03 All 22 14 14 3 14 6 5 4 2 5* 3 2 7 RV 21 14 14 3 15 6 5 4 2 3* 3 2 8 7/10/03 All 13 10 12 6 8 NA 6 4 2 5* 13 7 16 6/1/03 All 14 10 7 6 3 NA 2 1 1 41** 3 2 11 4/30/03 All 29 19 14 4 3 NA 3 6 2 4* 1 0 14 RV 30 20 14 3 3 NA 4 7 1 4* 2 0 13 1/20/03 All 27 14 10 11 3 NA 7 NA NA 1 4 0 24 7/15/02 All 10 5 6 3 1 NA NA NA NA 57*** * 0 18 *Other: Graham/Other **Other: H.R. Clinton, 37; Graham, 4; Other, * ***Other: Gore, 46; Daschle, 8; Other, 3

999a. (IF NAMED CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND: Is there a good chance you’ll change your mind, or would you say it’s pretty unlikely?

Definitely ---Chance change mind---- No vote NET Good Unlikely opin. 10/29/03 23 76 53 23 2

40. (ASKED IF NAMED A CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be?

Wldn't No Lieb. Gep. Ker. Ed. Dean Clark Shar. Braun Kuc. Oth. None vote op. 10/29/03 All 18 12 14 5 12 14 3 8 2 * 5 0 8 RV 18 12 14 5 12 14 2 9 2 * 5 0 6 9/13/03 All 18 17 17 4 15 4 5 5 1 4* 5 0 6 RV 17 18 17 4 15 4 5 4 1 3** 6 0 6 *Other: Graham, 3; Other, 1 **Other: Graham

41. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates in the Democratic primary this year - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

-----Satisfied------Dissatisfied----- No NET Very Somewhat NET Somewhat Very opin. 10/29/03 68 9 58 28 21 8 4 9/13/03 64 8 56 34 27 7 2 1/16/00 69 14 56 28 21 7 2

42. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) For each candidate I name, please tell me how much you feel you know about his personal qualities, such as experience and leadership ability.

10/29/03 – Summary Table

Great deal/ ---Some/Hardly anything/Nothing------Good amount---- Nothing No NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any. (vol.) op. Joseph Lieberman 36 11 25 62 32 25 5 2 Richard Gephardt 32 10 23 66 29 31 7 1 John Kerry 23 6 16 76 28 39 10 1 Howard Dean 20 5 15 79 27 41 11 1 Wesley Clark 17 5 12 82 31 40 11 1

43. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Now for each candidate, please tell me how much you feel you know about his positions on specific issues.

10/29/03 – Summary Table

Great deal/ ---Some/Hardly anything/Nothing------Good amount---- Nothing No NET Great Good NET Some Hardly any. (vol.) op. Joseph Lieberman 33 9 24 65 31 27 7 2 Richard Gephardt 26 7 18 73 30 35 7 2 John Kerry 19 5 14 79 27 42 10 2 Howard Dean 19 4 15 79 25 43 11 2 Wesley Clark 16 5 11 83 30 42 11 2

44. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Which is more important to you in choosing a candidate for president: (their personal qualities such as experience and leadership ability)-- or (their positions on specific issues)?

Personal Positions Both No qualities on issues (vol.) opin. 10/29/03 40 52 7 1 9/6/00 RV 45 41 14 1 8/20/00 RV 39 47 13 1 10/31/99 43 43 14 1 10/31/99 RV 42 42 16 *

45. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) What’s the most important issue to you in deciding your vote for the Democratic candidate for president? Is it: (the war on terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy and jobs, the health care system, education, the environment), or something else?

War on War in Economy/ Health Educ- Envir- Smthg. No terrorism Iraq jobs care ation onment. else opin. 10/29/03 5 6 54 12 11 3 7 2

46. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding your vote for the Democratic candidate for president? I’ll read the list twice. Is it: (someone who has the right experience, someone who understands your problems, someone who has new ideas, the candidate who has the best chance to win in November, a strong leader, someone who’s not a typical politician, or someone who’s a loyal Democrat)?

Right Understands New Best Strong Not typ. Loyal Smtg. No exper. problems ideas chance leader polit. Dem. else op. 10/29/03 14 20 15 6 27 11 4 1 1

47. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Which would you prefer: a candidate you agree with on most issues but who may have a difficult time beating Bush, or a candidate you may not agree with on as many issues, but who may have an easier time beating Bush?

Agree on Easier time No issues beating Bush opin. 10/29/03 53 42 5

48. (Regardless of who you support), Which Democratic candidate do you think has the best chance of defeating George W. Bush in November –(Joseph Lieberman, Richard Gephardt, John Kerry, John Edwards, Al Sharpton, Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, or Wesley Clark)

All No Lieb. Gep. Ker. Ed. Dean Clark Shar. Braun Kuc. None equal op. 10/29/03 17 15 8 2 14 15 3 1 1 9 1 13

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