ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL: ONE YEAR TO GO – 10/29/03 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 9 a.m. Sunday, Nov. 2, 2003 With Bush Weaker on Issues, The Economy Looms Large A year before the 2004 presidential election, George W. Bush is displaying significant weaknesses in his political and personal ratings. But the Democrats who seek to replace him continue to labor in his shadow – and the economy looms large over it all. Bush’s ratings on a range of issues – from Iraq to taxes to health care and beyond – are at or near new lows. On dealing with Iraq, he’s dived from 75 percent approval in late April to 47 percent now; for the first time a bare majority, 51 percent, disapproves. Fewer than one in 10 say he’s made the nation more prosperous. And in a result that can pack a punch, 58 percent, a new high, say he doesn’t understand their problems. But Bush still tops his Democratic rivals in head-to-head match-ups, by margins ranging from nine to 18 points. Even most Democrats don’t know much about the leading challengers’ personal qualities or positions on the issues. And their current preferences are exceedingly weak; three-quarters of Democrats are still shopping for a nominee. The next presidential Election Day, Nov. 2, 2004, is a year to the date from the release of this ABC News/Washington Post survey. 80% Bush's Handling of the Situation in Iraq ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 70% Approve 60% 50% Disapprove 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4/30/03 6/22/03 7/10/03 8/11/03 8/24/03 9/7/03 9/13/03 9/29/03 10/13/03 10/29/03 ECONOMY – The importance of the economy in the election can hardly be overstated. It’s the most-cited issue in importance to vote choices, especially among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. The key question, given the strong third-quarter GDP numbers, is whether the economy recovers in a way that’s felt on Main Street, and soon enough to boost Bush’s weak ratings for dealing with it. The big jump in GDP is potentially huge for Bush, and for incumbents more generally. But it can take years for recovery, particularly a “jobless recovery,” to make itself broadly felt; people tend to see the economy in terms of jobs and income, not GDP. Political ill will from the 1990-91 recession lingered through 1994, damaging not only George Bush in 1992 but also Bill Clinton and his fellow Democrats two years later. Today 45 percent of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling the economy; 53 percent disapprove. And the public by a wide margin, 62-35 percent, continues to rate the economy as a more pressing problem than terrorism. Just 22 percent say their personal finances have improved since Bush took office – precisely what it was for his father in August 1992, shortly before he lost re-election under the weight of economic discontent. That compares, unfavorably, to highs of 42 percent under Ronald Reagan and 34 percent under Clinton. 60% Economic Expectations ABC News/Washington Post polls 50% 50% Getting Better Getting Worse Staying the Same 40% 37% 38% 32% 31% 30% 20% 12% 10% 0% Now Nov. 1991 HOW BAD? – Still, while economic discontent is real, it’s not remotely as severe as it was at this point before the 1992 election. Today two-thirds say the economy’s in bad shape; it was 88 percent in November 1991. Today 31 percent say the economy’s getting worse, while 32 percent say it’s getting better; but at this time in 1991, 50 percent said it was still worsening, and just 12 percent saw improvement. A bad economy fuels political discontent. Most people, 57 percent, are now dissatisfied or even angry with the federal government, the most since 1997. But again, it was much higher – 80 percent – amid the deeper economic straits of 1992. (The number who are “angry” is now 15 percent, up from single digits the last few years. The peak was 24 percent in April 1992.) Discontent is an equal-opportunity emotion; Bush’s ratings have suffered, but so has Congress’. Just 40 percent now approve of how Congress is doing its work, down from 57 percent in late April and the lowest since 1997. IRAQ – A stronger economy would be tonic for Bush, especially given some second- guessing on the war in Iraq. Most Americans, 54 percent, say the war was worth fighting – the same as in early September, but down from 70 percent in late April. Fifty-eight percent are determined to stick with the occupation until civil order is restored, despite the casualties; but that’s down from 72 percent in July. Sixty-two percent, a new high, say the level of U.S. casualties is unacceptable (54 percent of men, and 70 percent of women). Concern about getting bogged down is broad and steady; 53 percent remain “very” concerned about it, more than double what it was in April. And the cost is a concern: More than six in 10 oppose the $87 billion in additional U.S. aid for Iraq; this has been steady since Bush brought it up. 100% Views of U.S. Casualties in Iraq 90% ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls 80% 70% Unacceptable 60% 50% 40% Acceptable 30% 20% 10% 0% 3/27/03 4/3/03 4/9/03 6/22/03 7/10/03 8/11/03 9/7/03 9/13/03 10/13/03 10/29/03 Sixty-one percent of Americans do accept Bush’s argument that the U.S. presence in Iraq is part of the war on terrorism – again, the same as in early September, but well down from 77 percent in April. As has been the case, there is strong partisanship in views on Iraq. Eighty-one percent of Republicans and 71 percent of conservatives say the war was worth fighting; that falls to 48 percent of independents and 54 percent of moderates, and further to 30 percent of Democrats and liberals alike. There’s a racial split as well; whites, by 61-37 percent, say the war was worth fighting. Nonwhites, by 70-29 percent, say it wasn’t. 100% Stay in Iraq or Withdraw? 90% ABC News/Washington Post polls 80% Stay 72% 69% 70% 65% 60% 58% 50% 40% 38% 32% Withdraw 30% 26% 27% 20% 10% 0% 7/10/03 8/24/03 9/13/03 10/29/03 TERRORISM – More than anything, Bush’s popularity since Sept. 11, 2001, has relied on his response to terrorism, and it remains his best area – 63 percent approve. But that’s a new low, down from 79 percent in April and from a high of 92 percent just after 9/11. Similarly, 62 percent of Americans say the war on terrorism is going well – most, but also down to a new low. It was 83 percent in April. ISSUES/QUALITIES – Bush’s approval ratings on other issues are weaker, and also well off their highs. Sixty-one percent disapprove of his work on the budget deficit; 63 percent disapprove on health insurance, a new high; 53 percent disapprove on taxes, a new high. More disapprove than approve of how he’s handled prescription drug benefits and Social Security. He gets 55 percent approval on education, long a domestic strong point for Bush, but that’s a career low. His overall approval rating is 56 percent; it was 53 percent earlier this month, but 68 percent as recently as June. In terms of personal qualities, the number of people who think Bush understands the problems of average Americans has slid from 61 percent in January 2002 (part of his post-9/11 boost) to 40 percent today, with a corresponding 21-point jump in the number who say he doesn’t get it. Does Bush Understand the Problems 100% of People Like You? 90% ABC News/Washington Post polls 80% 70% 60% Yes 50% 40% No 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 0 1 /99 /00 0 0 0 /03 2/99 6 7/ 2/ 2/ /14/99 9/ 31/99 /15 16/00 2/ 2 11/00 4/ 11/00 /23/00 2 30/01 /27/02 15/02 15/02 30 13/03 29/03 3 1/ 2/ 3/ 6/ 7 4/ 7/ 1 7/ 4/ 9/ 10/ 12 12/ 10/ Only majorities of Republicans and conservatives now think Bush understands their concerns. Eighty-four percent of Democrats, 65 percent of independents and even 29 percent of Republicans say he doesn’t. That’s a clear trouble sign: Empathy is a crucial quality in a political leader, especially when the going gets rough. It was a fatal weakness for Bush’s father, and a source of strength for Clinton. Bush’s ratings for leadership and honesty are higher, but down as well. Sixty-two percent call him a strong leader; the peak during his presidency was 75 percent in 2002. Fifty- nine percent call him honest and trustworthy; the peak was 71 percent, also in 2002. MATCH-UPS – These views describe a weakened president, but not a weak one. If the 2004 election were today, 48 percent of registered voters say they’d support Bush, 47 percent the Democratic nominee. But Bush will run against an actual Democrat, not a generic one, and here he fares better. He gets between 51 and 56 percent support among registered voters in head-to-head match-ups against any of five leading contenders for the Democratic nomination; they get anywhere from 38 to 43 percent support.