Democratic Candidates Still Tightly Bunched

The Harris Poll® #64, October 31, 2003

Lieberman, Clark have small lead over Dean, Kerry and Gephardt. ______by Humphrey Taylor

No front-runner has yet emerged in the race to be nominated as next year’s Democratic candidate for the presidency. The latest Harris Poll conducted among a sample of 596 Democrats and independents finds that Senator Joe Lieberman and General Wesley Clark have a small lead over Governor Howard Dean, Senator John Kerry and Senator Richard Gephardt. However, at this stage nobody has started to move away from the pack.

This survey, which was conducted by Harris Interactive by telephone between October 14th and 19th, finds that Joe Lieberman is the best known of all the candidates, with 81% of all Democrats and independents having heard of him. He is followed in terms of familiarity by Al Sharpton (70%), Richard Gephardt (68%), John Kerry (63%), Howard Dean (58%) and Wesley Clark (53%). Only 50% or less of all Democrats and independents have heard of Senator John Edwards, former Senator Carol Moseley- Braun or Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

None of the presidential aspirants have succeeded in attracting the support of more than the 13% of Democrats and independents who currently support Joe Lieberman. He is closely followed by Wesley Clark with 12%. Right behind them come Howard Dean (11%), John Kerry (10%), and Richard Gephardt (8%).

The pattern of responses is broadly similar among Democrats and independents who voted in the 2000 elections with Joe Lieberman leading the field with 14%, followed by Wesley Clark with 13%.

Of course, these are early days and it is a long time before the first votes will be cast in Iowa and New Hampshire. Whether the candidates will continue to run shoulder to shoulder, or whether one or two of them will succeed in breaking away from the pack before then, remains to be seen.

Humphrey Taylor is the chairman of The Harris Poll®, Harris Interactive.

TABLE 1 2004 Democratic Presidential Candidates Heard Of (Among Democrats and Independents) “Which of the following Democratic presidential candidates have you heard of?”

Base: All Democrats and Independents All Democrats & Independent Voted in s 2000 Joe Lieberman 81% 87% Al Sharpton 70% 74% Richard Gephardt 68% 72% John Kerry 63% 68% Howard Dean 58% 62% Wesley Clark 53% 58% John Edwards 50% 53% Carol Moseley-Braun 44% 49% Dennis Kucinich 30% 31%

TABLE 2 2004 Democratic Presidential Candidates – First Preferences (Among Democrats and Independents)

Base: All Democrats and Independents All Democrats & Independent Voted in s 2000 Joe Lieberman 13% 14% Wesley Clark 12% 13% Howard Dean 11% 10% John Kerry 10% 10% Richard Gephardt 8% 10% Carol Moseley-Braun 5% 5% Al Sharpton 5% 3% John Edwards 4% 2% Dennis Kucinich 3% 3% Not sure 26% 27%

Methodology

The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 14 and 19, 2003 among a nationwide cross-section of 1,017 adults (ages 18+) of whom 596 self-identified as independents or Democrats. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points (for the overall sample), and plus or minus 4 percentage points (for the Democrats/Independents sample) of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. ______J19840 Q431, Q435

About Harris Interactive®

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